Shane Steichen: I could have done a better job calling plays in the fourth quarter
Colts head coach Shane Steichen calls the team's offensive plays and his work in that area came under scrutiny after the team's 23-20 overtime loss to the Chiefs.
The Colts had a 20-9 lead heading into the fourth quarter, but they failed to pick up a first down on any of their final four possessions and that left the door open for a Kansas City comeback win. During his Monday press conference, Steichen was asked several questions about his thought process on those drives.
After a Jonathan Taylor run on the team's first offensive play of the fourth quarter, Steichen called passes on the next eight plays. Quarterback Daniel Jones completed two of those throws for 12 yards and the Colts only used 3:14 of clock over the course of the possessions. Steichen said the final drive of regulation was one where he could have done a "better job for sure."
“You always go back and self-evaluate those situations," Steichen said. "I really thought that last drive in regulation when we went pass, pass, pass, I could have called some runs there. Absolutely could have eaten up some time there, but, you know, in hindsight, it just didn’t work out, and I look at myself first and foremost in those situations to get better for our guys moving forward.”
The Colts took the ball to open overtime and picked up nine yards on their first two plays, but Taylor was dropped for a loss on third down and the Chiefs drove for the game-winning field goal after a punt. It's the kind of loss that necessitates a close examination of what went wrong, especially since the team's margin for error is slim with games against the Texans and Jaguars on the docket in the next two weeks.
NFL Week 13 betting, odds, lines: 5 biggest storylines, including Thanksgiving and Black Friday lines
Underdogs had a pretty nice Week 12.
Through Sunday's games, underdogs went 9-4 against the spread. The Houston Texans set the tone by winning straight up as a 6-point underdog on Thursday night to start the week. Even though nine underdogs covered, only four won straight up.
Here are the betting storylines for Week 13 in the NFL, with all odds from BetMGM:
Matthew Stafford takes a big MVP lead
Stafford is in his 17th season. He has never received a first-place vote for NFL MVP. Surprisingly enough, he has only been named to the Pro Bowl twice. And now he's a pretty clear favorite, at age 37, to win his first MVP.
Stafford is on a historic tear, with 25 touchdowns and no interceptions since Week 3. He leads the NFL with 30 touchdown passes. The Rams have the best record in the NFC, and being the quarterback on a No. 1 seed has been the winning formula for MVP voters for many years.
Oddsmakers had a big shift to Stafford being a heavy favorite over Drake Maye. Stafford is -235 to win MVP. Maye is behind him at +200 and nobody else is shorter than 18-to-1. It's Stafford's award to lose. He would join Y.A Tittle (1963) and Rich Gannon (2002) as the oldest first-time winners of the award.
Chiefs only road Thanksgiving favorite
The oddsmakers like our chances of getting at least two competitive games on Thanksgiving.
The first game is the best matchup and the point spread reflects that. The Detroit Lions are 2.5-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay blasted Detroit 27-13 in Week 1, and the game wasn't that close.
Jahmyr Gibbs of the Detroit Lions scores a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers during a 2024 game. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Nic Antaya via Getty Images
The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by more than a field goal on the road in the second game, even though the Dallas Cowboys are coming off a big comeback win over the Eagles. The Chiefs are -3.5 at Dallas.
Joe Burrow's return to the lineup didn't sway oddsmakers too much. The Cincinnati Bengals are still 7-point underdogs at the Baltimore Ravens, who have been winning lately but have had trouble blowing out inferior opponents.
Favorites have been pretty good on Thanksgiving through the past couple decades. According to Action Network, favorites are 51-9 straight up and 40-20 against the spread on Thanksgiving since 2004. It's even better for road favorites like the Chiefs, who are 25-1 straight up and 20-6 against the spread on Thanksgiving since 2004 according to Action Network.
Eagles big favorites on Black Friday
The Philadelphia Eagles offense is struggling, and they're coming off a tough loss to the Cowboys. The Chicago Bears are 8-3, so Bears at Eagles on Black Friday should be a pretty small spread, right? Not really.
The Eagles are a full touchdown favorite over the Bears. That shouldn't surprise astute bettors, who know the Bears have beaten only one team with a record above .500 (that was a three-point home win over the Steelers on Sunday), have won six one-score games and a point differential this season of -3. If you believe in the Bears, you're catching a lot of points on Black Friday.
Even bad underdogs can cover
The Seahawks were the best team against the spread in the NFL before Week 12. They were 8-2 vs. the number. On Sunday, they faced the Tennessee Titans, who are the only one-win team in the NFL.
Of course, the Titans covered. It wasn't easy, as Tennessee fell behind 23-3 but rallied in garbage time to lose 30-24 and cover the 13-point spread. It's a reminder of a few things. Big NFL underdogs are often really bad teams, but they can cover huge spreads. The two other double-digit underdogs of Week 12 covered too (Giants +14 over Lions and Jets +14 over Ravens). Also, ATS records aren't necessarily predictive; oddsmakers adjust and most teams will regress closer to .500 against the spread before the season ends.
Chiefs take over as AFC favorites
And now for our weekly look at the disconnect between the Chiefs' record and how they stack up in the futures market. The Chiefs improved to 6-5 with a win over the Colts and despite still being far from a lock to make the playoffs, they're third in the Super Bowl odds at +900. Only the Rams and Eagles have shorter odds.
This will really drive Chiefs haters nuts: BetMGM now has the Chiefs as the favorite to win the AFC at +475. The Colts are right behind at +500. The Chiefs are +475 to win the AFC West, far behind the Broncos at -300, and have the exact same odds to win the entire AFC. It might be a while before you see that happen again.
Brock Purdy: Three interceptions had nothing to do with my toe
49ers quarterback Brock Purdy opened Monday night's game by capping a 15-play drive with a touchdown pass to wide receiver Jauan Jennings, but the rest of the half did not go nearly as well for him.
Purdy threw interceptions on the next three 49ers possessions and two of them set the Panthers up in 49ers territory. The 49ers defense stepped up to limit the Panthers to three points off of the turnovers and the Niners won the game 20-9, but that kind of carelessness with the ball is usually a recipe for disaster.
After the game, Purdy said he was fine with "the decisions of going to those spots" on the interceptions but that he "needed to just drive the ball a little bit more" on the throws. Purdy was then asked if the toe injury that caused him to miss eight games factored into not driving the ball the way he wanted to on Monday.
"No, toe is fine," Purdy said, via 49ersWebzone.com. "Feels good out there. It's really just seeing the play develop, anticipating and letting it rip at the end of the day. So, it had nothing to do with my toe."
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said that Purdy was "a hair late" throwing the ball on the interceptions. The 49ers will need to get their timing right in the coming days because Myles Garrett and a Browns defense coming off a 10-sack game will be waiting to try to force them into more mistakes in Cleveland.