Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don't make sense in Week 8
Hello Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you’ll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I’ll be digging into 3 players projected to play above their usual level, and 3 players projected to play below their usual level. (I’ll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 PM ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)
The players in last week’s write-ups didn’t quite live up to expectations, overall, but that’s the way it works out sometimes. On to Week 8…
Tyler Warren, Colts
THE BLITZ Week 8 Projection: 7.2 targets, 5.4 receptions, 66 yards, 0.51 TD
Week 8 vs. ROS: TE1 vs TE3
The Colts have one of the highest team totals of the week (and one of the highest of the season) at 30.5. While that may mean a lot of running the ball (Jonathan Taylor projects exceptionally too), there’s a good chance Warren will be involved in that scoring. He leads the team in red zone target share at 30%, and they’ll even give him the occasional red zone rushing attempt. The best part about this matchup, though, is how the Titans' run zone defense shells at one of the highest rates in the league. Warren has performed significantly better against zone this season, as we might expect with his excellent route-running. While the Colts will probably be sitting on the ball at the end of the game, Warren stands a good chance of being a part of why they have the luxury of doing that.
Tez Johnson, Bucs
THE BLITZ Week 8 Projection: 4.7 targets, 2.8 receptions, 42 yards, 0.27 TD
Week 8 vs. ROS: 9.0 PPR points vs. 4.3 PPR points per game
With all of the injuries that have plagued Tampa Bay’s receiving corps this season (notably Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., and Jalen McMillan), rookie Tez Johnson has found himself near the top of the depth chart. He was second to only Emeka Egbuka in snaps last week, and was tied with Sterling Shepard in routes. This week, Johnson gets an elite matchup against a bad Saints team that plays at the fastest pace in the league. That should mean plenty of volume for the Bucs offense, and the indoor dome setting should help with efficiency. The raw talent and upside are definitely present here.
Alvin Kamara, Saints
THE BLITZ Week 8 Projection: 14.1 carries, 3.7 receptions, 81 yards, 0.50 TD
Just a week ago, Kamara’s prospects weren’t looking so hot. Kendre Miller was eating into his workload, and Taysom Hill was starting to ramp up and steal carries and red-zone touches away. While Taysom is still in the picture, Miller is now out for the season. Rookie Devin Neal will step in as the backup RB, but the team doesn’t trust him nearly as much as it did Miller, and so I’m projecting a much heavier workload for Kamara than he’s had in several weeks. The matchup itself is fairly neutral, but it’s going to feel about as good as a neutral matchup ever will under the circumstances.
Jake Ferguson, Cowboys
THE BLITZ Week 8 Projection: 8.3 targets, 5.6 receptions, 49 yards, 0.38 TD
Week 8 vs. ROS: 12.9 PPR points vs. 14.3 PPR points per game
Ferguson has no doubt been a stud this year, but his Week 8 matchup may prove trickier than usual. Ferguson has one of the most extreme projected man/zone splits among tight ends, and he faces a Broncos team that plays man shells at the highest rate in the league. Not only is Ferguson significantly better against zone, but his two highest-profile teammates — CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens — have large projected splits in the other direction, excelling against man. And their quarterback, Dak Prescott, also has an extreme split in the direction of man coverage. Then put the game on the road and outside the dome, and Ferguson has a chance to be a bit of a disappointment this week.
Tony Pollard, Titans
THE BLITZ Week 8 Projection: 11 carries, 2.1 receptions, 58 yards, 0.30 TD
Week 8 vs. ROS: 9.9 PPR points vs. 13.7 PPR points
The Titans have the lowest team total of the week (16.5) and are 14-point underdogs. Sure, the Titans are almost always underdogs, but 14 points is a special kind of underdog. Running backs on teams that are two-touchdown underdogs typically do not post big fantasy days, particularly when their backup has just begun to crowd the picture. In his second week back from injury, Tyjae Spears jumped up to a 45% share of the carries, toting the ball five times to Pollard’s six. And because Spears is the better pass-catching back of the two, the extreme passing game script isn’t as likely to help Pollard in that regard.
Cam Skattebo, Giants
THE BLITZ Week 8 Projection: 14.4 carries, 3.1 receptions, 90 yards, 0.52 TD
Week 8 vs. ROS: RB17 vs. RB11
Skattebo is in a similar situation as Pollard, staring down a 7.5-point underdog game script against Philly. The Eagles are a run-heavy team that plays at a slow pace, so they will likely be sitting on the ball and grinding clock. They also run man coverage shells at one of the highest rates in the league, and Skattebo’s skillset and numbers point towards him being a more effective receiver against zone.