Last night, Cowboys receiver George Pickens grabbed a goalpost. Eventually, he'll be grabbing a bag.
Where will it come from? The Cowboys already have massive cap dollars committed to quarterback Dak Prescott and receiver CeeDee Lamb. Can they afford a Bengals-style Burrow-Chase-Higgins trio of market-level deals?
The Bengals aren't the best comparison to make, given that their oversized payments to the pass-game Paul have robbed their putrid Peter of a defense.
Even before last night, it was clear that the Cowboys have a tough decision to make. They traded for Pickens without an extension. His rookie contract expires in March.
The basic choices are obvious: (1) sign him to a long-term deal; (2) apply the franchise tag; (3) tag and trade him; or (4) let him leave via free agency and get a compensatory draft pick in 2027.
Owner/G.M. Jerry Jones raised the stakes after the latest performance from Pickens: nine receptions, 144 yards, and a touchdown. (His best catch of the night was a one hander that was nearly a touchdown.)
“I’ve never seen a performance like that," Jones said of Pickens. "It was poetic the way that he was making those moves out there. It was like he was in an opera or something out there. A ballet."
And now Jones will be square-dancing through a minefield. The projected receiver franchise tag for 2026 would entail at least $28 million in cash and cap charges. And it would allow Pickens to take a stand, declining to accept the tender and staying away for all of the offseason, training camp, and preseason, if he wants.
As it relates to a possible long-term deal, the Cowboys would be negotiating with David Mulugheta, the agent they tried to bypass when attempting to sign (and eventually destroying the relationship with) Micah Parsons.
If the Cowboys are committed to keeping Pickens (and, based on Jones's comments, they apparently will be), it's going to be expensive. The market is the market, and there's no way a long-term deal won't begin with the number on Pickens's jersey: 3.
There's another wrinkle to consider, one for which the Cowboys have some precedent. After the Cowboys traded a first-round pick to the Raiders for receiver Amari Cooper during the 2018 season, they let Cooper finish his rookie contract in 2019 before signing him to a five-year, $100 million deal. And, after paying out a total of $40 million in 2020 and 2021, they traded him to make way for Lamb.
And so the overall collection of outcomes has to include the possibility of eventually trading Lamb and keeping Pickens.
It sounds crazy on the surface, especially in the short term. A pre-June 1 trade would come with a total cap charge of $42.8 million, while also eliminating his $38.6 million cap number for next season. The more likely approach will be to exercise the automatic restructure option, knocking Lamb's cap number down by $18 million or so and kicking the rest of it into future years.
If it doesn't happen in 2026, the either-or decision could come in 2027. Or 2028. At some point, the Cowboys very well may have to choose between Lamb and Pickens.
Given that Jones has never said about Lamb what Jones said about Pickens, it shouldn't be assumed that, when the time comes, Pickens is definitely the one who will go.