NFL Playoff Projection: Colts at Chiefs will go a long way in shaping AFC bracket
Before the season, it wouldn't have been outlandish to believe that a Week 12 game between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs would feature one team in contention for the AFC's No. 1 seed with the other just hoping to sneak into the playoffs.
That's what Colts at Chiefs is, but with a twist.
The Colts are 8-2 and among the few contenders to finish with the best record in the AFC this season. Meanwhile the most surprising story of the season might be that the Chiefs are 5-5, with a real possibility of missing the playoffs. That seemed unfathomable before the season, but a loss to the Colts on Sunday will push them further back in the race.
The Chiefs' biggest issue might be tiebreaker problems. They won't have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Jaguars or Bills, and at the moment don't have it against the Broncos or Chargers either (Kansas City still has games left against Denver and Los Angeles). A 10-7 record for the Chiefs — which would require a 5-2 finish — still might not be enough if the tiebreakers don't fall right. Every win is crucial for them.
The Colts have had a great season but the Patriots and Broncos also have just two losses in the chase for the No. 1 seed. And if Indianapolis loses, they could be just a game ahead of the Jaguars in the AFC South with two meetings left against Jacksonville. All eyes will be on the Chiefs, but this is a pivotal game for the Colts as well.
Here are the other Week 12 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears
It's a meeting between the shakiest division leaders in the NFL. Both are in first place, but the Steelers have the Ravens charging hard from behind and the Bears' 7-3 start has been questioned due to a negative point differential and their many close wins against bad teams. They also play in a strong NFC North and holding off the Lions and Packers won't be easy.
But one of these first-place teams will get another step closer to a division championship. Regardless of the perception of either team, every win gets them closer to holding off their rivals for a division championship.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
After the Cowboys improved to 4-5-1 with a win over the Raiders, there was inevitable talk about the Cowboys getting back in the playoff race. The problem is they're going to have to beat some good teams to make the playoffs, and their list of wins this season is the Giants, Jets, Commanders and Raiders. Dallas has not shown the ability to beat a playoff-level team yet. But one win over the Eagles might make the talk of the Cowboys being a wild-card contender more realistic.
The Eagles are in position to get the No. 1 seed, but that challenge got tougher with right tackle Lane Johnson's injury, which will knock him out for 4-to-6 weeks. That's a big loss for the Eagles. The Eagles are still in good shape but a loss Suday would be good news to the Rams, who are the only other NFC team with only two losses.
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have their flaws, but they are 7-4 and their next three games are vs. Panthers, at Browns and vs. Titans. They'll be favored in all three games, and if they win all three they'll be 10-4 and in fantastic shape for a wild-card spot.
The Panthers might have other plans. A win in San Francisco would pull them into a tie with San Francisco and also give them the head-to-head tiebreaker. It would also put a lot more pressure on the Buccaneers, who have a tough road game at the Rams this week. If the Panthers win and the Buccaneers lose, Carolina will take over first place in the NFC South. This Monday night matchup has some clear playoff implications.