Week 2 of the NFL season started with a dominant 27-18 win for the Green Bay Packers (-3) over the Washington Commanders. The game stayed under the total of 48, which means that unders are now 13-4 this season.
What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?
Our NFL handicapping trio of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng and Michael Fiddle combine to give their best bets for Week 2 of the NFL season. This file will be updated throughout the weekend.
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Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)
BetMGM betting splits: 57% of bets, 87% of money on Patriots +2.5
Fiddle: In Week 2, I am looking for spots where my preseason priors were contrary to the Week 1 results, and remain true to priors without overreacting to a one-game sample size. While I was not high on the Dolphins from a season-long perspective, I do trust the offense when the skill players are healthy and active.
In 42 games where both Tua Tagovailoa was a healthy starter and Mike McDaniel was the head coach, the Dolphins are 27-15, a 59.5% win rate — that would put them on pace to be a 10 win team. Now of course we need to factor in schedule difficulty and strength of the defense — and those are reasons I stayed away from the preseason win total number of 7.5 — but this is still an average football team now being priced way below that.
I still have not actively bet this number, because the market continues to suggest Patriots movement. This may end at a pick em’, and I would love the home Dolphins at that number. I find it playable at the current -1.5, but the market suggests continuing to wait this out — this will be something I bet between now and Sunday.
Bet: Dolphins -1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 49)
BetMGM betting splits: 59% of bets, 50% of money on Bengals -3.5
Feng: Cincinnati might have won last week, but it wasn’t pretty. Cleveland missed a chip-shot field goal in the last minutes to preserve a 17-16 win for Cincinnati, and Joe Burrow threw for a measly 3.65 yards per pass attempt (5.92 was the NFL average in Week 1).
In contrast, Jacksonville dominated Carolina in a 26-10 win. Trevor Lawrence didn’t have to do much, as the ground game racked up 6.73 yards per carry (4.35 was NFL average in Week 1).
However, let’s not overreact to one week of football. Cincinnati is the better team at home against Jacksonville, and my numbers like Cincinnati by 5.5 points — even after Week 1 adjustments.
Bet: Bengals -3.5
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 44.5)
BetMGM betting splits: 74% of bets, 71% of money on Cowboys -5.5
Corbie: Ranking 26th in average depth of target, Russell Wilson isn’t looking to crush anyone on the midrange passing game. Wilson's 17-for-37 performance against the Commanders can’t leave anyone in New York too excited for his time as the starting QB, and with the pressure mounting to perform while fans and coaches pick at his every decision, its easy to see why the long ball doesn’t cross his mind much: an interception could easily mean the end of his road at QB1.
Pricing the interception market, I believe you’re getting a really good price on the NO interceptions assuming that Wilson isn’t good and throws a lot, but in actuality his current play style isn’t that indicative of turnover worthy plays.
Bet: Russell Wilson under 0.5 Interceptions (-110)
Denver Broncos (-1.5, 43.5) at Indianapolis Colts
BetMGM betting splits: 72% of bets, 59% of money on Broncos -1.5
Corbie: Denver escaped Week 1 as a Wong teaser winner, but it wasn’t without a sweat — allowing Cam Ward and the Titans to keep the game competitive even though they weren’t playing their best game (Ward finished the game just 12-for-28 passing).
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The Colts' floor was set with the assumption that Daniel Jones wouldn’t come in and look awesome, but a 22-for-29 performance shows that given the tools, he’s a plenty competent QB and I believe his priors will hold back early lines from adjusting enough on him.
In a matchup with a low total, the ability to tease this +1.5 past both key numbers of 3 and 7 makes this a great first leg to a six-point teaser.
Bet: Colts +7.5 and Patriots +7.5 in a six-point teaser
Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 47) at Kansas City Chiefs
BetMGM betting splits: 77% of bets, 83% of money on Eagles -1
Fiddle: I have held a lower power rating on the Kansas City Chiefs than the market over the last year, and fading them against the spread has been profitable. Kansas City is now 8-12-1 ATS in its last 21 games, including the playoffs.
I have further downgraded them already this season because of the injuries sustained to Xavier Worthy, combined with late preseason news and the six-game suspension for Rashee Rice. The skill position players struggled to support Patrick Mahomes in Week 1. Mahomes led the team in rushing in Week 1, and got over his pass yards expectation on a 4th-and-7 roll out 40-plus yard completion that was irrelevant.
Philadelphia's defense should be able to keep the game in front of them on defense, and on offense the Eagles have a run unit that can travel anywhere. I expect the Eagles to win outright and possibly handily again in a Super Bowl rematch - and would back the spread out to Eagles -2. If the Chiefs do fall to 0-2, I would consider looking at their futures market nonetheless as a potential buy point. While I am lower on them than consensus, they are still the best team in their division with plenty of time left and an elite QB and coaching staff to figure it out.
Bet: Eagles -1