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The Bears took over sole possession of first place in the NFC North on Sunday, improving their record to 7-3, half a game ahead of the 6-3-1 Packers and a full game ahead of the 6-4 Lions. But that doesn't make the Bears the division favorites.

In fact, the betting odds have the Bears a distant third in the division.

The Lions, despite being in third place, are currently the betting favorites with +130 odds to win the division at DraftKings.com. The Packers are just behind them at +135. The Bears, despite being in first place, are significant underdogs to win the division at +390. The 4-6 Vikings are in last place and have by far the longest odds, at +9000.

A big reason the gambling community isn't high on the Bears is that they're winning, but they're usually just squeaking by their opponents. Usually, the best teams are the ones that blow out their opponents. The Bears' point differential is -6, while the Lions' point differential is +76 and the Packers' point differential is +44. Point differential is usually a better predictor of a team's future performance than win-loss record.

The NFC North is likely to go down to the wire, as the Bears play the Packers twice in December, and the Bears and Lions meet to conclude the season in Week 18. The Bears will have their chances down the stretch to prove the oddsmakers wrong.

Raiders head coach Pete Carroll had a more positive take on quarterback Geno Smith's play against the Cowboys than Smith did after Monday night's loss.

Smith said "I've just got to play better" in the wake of the 33-16 loss and said to "blame it on me" if the offense doesn't play well enough to win a game. Smith was 27-of-42 for 238 yards, a touchdown and an interception on Monday.

While Smith took a critical view, Carroll said in his Tuesday press conference that he "thought Geno played really well for the most part last night" and that his confidence in the quarterback has not wavered over the team's 2-8 start to the season.

"I continue to really believe in him," Carroll said. "I have no hesitation in telling you that. He’s an incredible player and he’s busting his tail, he’s working at it really hard. He has not backed off one step throughout the process. He’s gonna keep working it and he’ll come through for us. We just gotta help him out more and protect him better."

Even if they agree that the Raiders allowed too much pressure on Monday night, others will take a dimmer view of Smith's play but it doesn't look like there's going to be a change under center in Las Vegas anytime soon.

Week 11 is fully in the books after Monday Night Football and the spreadsheets are overflowing with new data. Here are the 10 most important storylines you need to know heading into Week 12.

1) Cardinals set records

Just like Week 10, the Cardinals got down early on Sunday and Jonathan Gannon simply let Jacoby Brissett sling it all over the field for the better part of four quarters. The Cardinals logged a +7% pass rate over expected. Brissett threw 57 passes, 47 of which were caught. His 47 completions are now the NFL record in a single game. Brissett put up 452 yards and two scores. His yardage total is the second-most for a player this year. That, of course, fueled Michael Wilson to 15 grabs for 185 yards. Unlike Brissett, Wilson did set the new yardage benchmark for 2025. The Cardinals are up to a +7% PROE in Brissett's six starts. That mark would trail only Kansas City this year.

The only situation in which the Cardinals run more than expected is third-and-short. Brissett has at least 258 yards and two scores in every start. Trey McBride is the clear TE1 overall favorite and Brissett’s No. 2 receiver—whether it be Marvin Harrison Jr. or Michael Wilson—is a weekly WR2.

2) What’s going on with the Chargers?

This feels like too simple an explanation, but the data is undeniable: The Chargers stink without left tackle Joe Alt. Their pass game in particular has been decimated by the loss of Alt, who is done for the year because of an ankle issue.

When Alt has been on the field, the Chargers have the league’s best passing attack. They are nearly the worst when he isn’t available. Most notably, Justin Herbert is getting rid of the ball more quickly and, in turn, dropping his aDOT without Alt. Despite the fast passing attack, Herbert has been less accurate with a higher sack rate post-Alt.

3) Is Rashee Rice good for the Chiefs?

Like the Chargers, the Chiefs’ issues on offense can’t be boiled down to just one item. I, however, will focus on one problem. This section would otherwise be an entire article of its own. It’s hard to say that having Rashee Rice makes the Chiefs outright worse. It is, however, easier to point to make the case that they become more passive when Rice is available.

Over the past two years, Patrick Mahomes has gotten rid of the ball faster and thrown shorter passes when Rice has been on the field. He also scrambles far less often. You would think that—if he is holding the ball longer—his sack rate would drop when Rice is out there. His sack rate is almost perfectly unchanged (5.6 percent versus 5.5 percent) with Rice. Mahomes’ interception rate actually skyrockets from 1.7 percent to 4.5 percent when he has Rice on the pitch. Mahomes’ adaptability is arguably his greatest trait. He can win in any style with any supporting cast. It also means he can get caught in a cycle of taking his free throws every week while not shooting enough threes.

I came into this section thinking Rice could be at the core of the issue for Kansas City. The Mahomes splits aren’t as drastic as I thought they would be, even if he is measurably less aggressive with Rice. The arguably fluky interception rate has been his biggest issue and a lack of improvement in the touchdown department has compounded the problem. Both of those stats are highly impactful to quarterback efficiency but not stable in small samples. The Chiefs might not be as fun with Rice soaking up easy catches, but I would still bet on them being better over the long run.

4) George Pickens is him

Pickens currently sits at 11th in catches (83), second in yards (908), and third in touchdowns (seven). He is seventh in the NFL in yards per route run. PFF has him graded as their No. 4 receiver. ESPN’s player tracking data has Pickens as a top-five pass-catcher as well. The Cobwoys’ passing volume and efficiency have both done wonders for Pickens this year, but his talent can’t be ignored as a massive part of the equation. The most absurd part of this is that Pickens is 24 years old and won’t turn 25 until well after the season ends. He ranks 54th all-time in receiving yards before turning 25 and is on pace to crack the top 20 by the end of the year.

5) Back to Kirk Cousins

Michael Penix is looking at another potential season-ending injury after going down Week 11. He has already been placed on injured reserve, sidelining him for at least four weeks. I’m expecting seven games of Cousins to close the year. Cousins has been dreadful in 2025. He ranks 41st in EPA per play and 42nd in CPOE (min. 50 dropbacks).

Pro Football Focus has Penix charted with the third-worst accurate throw rate this year. If you thought, “Obviously Cousins is one of the two quarterbacks worse than him, despite that sounding like a statistical improbability,” you would be correct.

6) Sam Darnold did the thing

Darnold appeared to have turned the corner in his career last year heading into the final week of the regular season. He then imploded against the Lions, costing the Vikings the No. 1 seed. Playing in the Wild Card Round, Sean McVay’s Rams picked him apart with nine sacks and two forced turnovers. Periodically going up in flames is kind of his thing, and he did it again in Week 11 with four interceptions versus those same Rams. The Seahawks’ calling card this year has been early down efficiency. No team has a higher passing EPA on first and second down. This is, in part, because they eviscerate teams that try to stop their run game. Darnold has averaged 12.3 YPA when facing six or fewer coverage defenders on early downs. That falls to a still impressive mark of 9.2 when there are seven or more coverage defenders on the field. Darnold leads the league in YPA on both fronts, but he also experiences the second-most drastic falloff in YPA when teams try to contain Seattle’s passing game. In a similar vein, Darnold leads the league in YPA on play action (13.0) and has the second-largest decline when going to non-play action throws. The Rams, familiar with his game, didn’t give him the easy looks.

They gave him fewer throws against heavy boxes than usual and destroyed him when he threw against coverage-focused looks. Darnold was picked off twice on first or second down with 7+ defenders in coverage. It was the same story on play action. The Rams didn’t bite, gave up a humble 7.4 yards per attempt, and picked Darnold off once. Darnold hasn’t been solved. But the Rams have at least laid out the blueprint for toppling his spreadsheet schemes.

7) RJ Harvey dud

Week 11 was a frustrating one for fantasy managers who waited over two months for Harvey to break out. Admittedly, the usage was fine. Harvey accounted for 61 percent of the Broncos’ carries and recorded an identical snap share. He set a season-high in routes (20) and was targeted three times. The only minor issue was a lack of goal line work. The Broncos had one goal line attempt in Week 11. It went to Jaleel McLaughlin. Harvey had touched the ball three consecutive times—the third of which was an 11-yard catch—before being subbed out ahead of the McLaughlin score. He still led the team in short down and distance snaps on the day. It doesn’t look like the team has a lack of trust in him as the goal line back. He likely just got a breather at the wrong time. I’d bet on him rebounding in Week 12 against the lowly Commanders.

8) Sean Tucker appreciation post

I know Tucker will likely be sent back to the bench this week with Bucky Irving trending toward playing. I don’t care. Let's give the kid some props. Tucker ran for 106 yards and two scores in Week 11. It was his second career spike week. His first came last year when he went for 136 yards in Week 6. Both of those totals would be career-highs for Rachaad White, who had been playing ahead of him in Bucky Irving’s absence until Week 11. Tucker has seen more than a dozen carries in two games, his two spike weeks. White has done so 22 times. It’s possible Tucker played himself into a supporting role even once Irving is back. For now, he is at least elevated to premier handcuff status.

9) Shedeur Sanders debut

The most debated mid-game debut for a Day Three quarterback in NFL history now belongs to Shedeur Sanders. It was, of course, always going to be this way. Sanders took over for Dillon Gabriel versus the Ravens in Week 11 after the latter left with a concussion. Sanders struggled, going 4-of-16 for 47 yards and a pick. The Ravens put the pressure on Sanders by blitzing him on 9-of-21 dropbacks. Sanders went 0-of-6 with two sacks and his interception on these plays. Assuming Gabriel is out this week, Sanders will get a Raiders defense that blitzes at the sixth-highest rate. The good news is that Sanders was solid against the blitz in college. Sack-taking was an issue, but he ranked 13th in PFF passing grade and fourth in YPA against the blitz among 54 qualified Power 4 passers last year.

10) Business as usual for Brock Purdy

The 49ers gave Purdy nearly two months to recover from his never-ending toe issue. It seemed like a laughably long rehab at the time. It still does, to be fair. But Mac Jones was playing well and Purdy is now a $265 million dollar man. Rushing him back never made sense. Kyle Shanahan bided his time and was rewarded with a full-strength, efficient-as-ever Purdy in Week 11. Purdy dismantled the Cardinals with three passing touchdowns on 26 attempts. He finished the week ranked sixth in EPA per play and fourth in CPOE. It’s business as usual for the spreadsheet savior.