Moving in a different direction isn’t always easy.
Subjectively, it’s inconvenient. Think about it. If you’re already going one way, a U-turn or alternate route means lost time. Switching to a secondary or backup plan when you’ve thought through the first option can be taxing. Call it mental inertia. For my nerds, that’s Newton’s First Law of Motion with a real-world spin. For fantasy managers, it’s how we should approach Week 3.
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Week 1 gave us our first real data point about our skill players. But in some cases, the last set of games had us changing directions. We’re left to wonder what our next move should be. And until we see more, our desire to panic will only increase.
The Chiefs' skill player to roster is no one 🚫
Let’s think through the concept of "next man up."
Rashee Rice accepted his suspension, so we elevated Xavier Worthy. Travis Kelce decided to honor the Chiefs’ annual tradition of taking out one of their WRs, making Hollywood Brown the top option. However, we realized on Sunday why relying on someone farther down the depth chart isn’t the best idea.
Three takeaways from Patrick Mahomes’ touchdown run. First, the pause as he hit the top of this dropback. Five receivers running a route. Nobody has enough separation to earn a target. Second, the pressure. Well, more so about how Mahomes reacted to pressure. Having a defender flying toward him 15 or more times a game isn’t anything new. But his 10.7-yard aDOT was. That’s his highest single-game average since 2019. But even with him throwing farther downfield, nobody on the other end stood out enough to warrant a starting spot in Week 3.
Tyquan Thornton: 5 (targets), 78.9% (route share)
Hollywood Brown: 5, 78.9%
Travis Kelce: 6, 78.9%
Noah Gray: 5, 50.0%
JuJu Smith-Schuster: 3, 76.3%
Brown got the "Rashee Rice’" role without the opportunity. Tyquan Thornton should’ve had two TDs, but couldn’t push for the lead in looks. The rest siphoned targets away. There’s uncertainty attached to each of them. However, moving to my third takeaway, the player with the most concern is (sometimes) in the backfield.
Rushing Attempts: 51.7% (Pacheco), 44.8% (Hunt)
Short-Yardage Attempts: 28.6%, 71.4%
Target Share: 7.5%, 6.0%
Rostering an RB that runs like he bites people sounds great until he’s only chomping up yardage at 3.1 yards per carry (29th out of 35 qualifiers). And a split with Kareem Hunt in every game situation doesn’t help. Sure, I’ll keep Mahomes active for the Chiefs’ road trip to face the Giants. But as the rest of the offense continues to evolve, they drop a tier in value until we see more out of them.
Panic Meter: Moderate to High
The Jets are who we thought they were ✅
I was ready to admit I dismissed the idea of the Jets being useful for fantasy coming into 2025. Justin Fields posted career-high marks against a tough Steelers’ defense. Breece Hall looked spry. But then Week 2 came along.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I want to give some credence to Fields playing well in the season opener. His 0.54 EPA per dropback was the best of his previous 44 starts. He only has four other games with a passing success rate over 50.0%. But the hesitation at the top of the dropback is something we’ve seen from Fields.
To be fair, Buffalo hinted at sending five pre-snap, but then dropped seven in coverage. However, a 3.34-second average time to throw is untenable. That’s extra strain on the offensive line. And yet, Fields has (at best) been the sixth-slowest QB to throw a pass in any season he’s had six or more starts. It’d be one thing if his patience turned into production. But Fields only scrambled twice after letting the play develop.
OK, so let’s focus on when he actually threw the ball instead. In Week 1, (mostly) everything worked. The intermediate passing lanes were open. But Buffalo shut down the middle of the field on Sunday. Fields completed just one pass of over ten yards after looking like a different passer the week before. And while I want to think we can see a similar performance in the future, yet again, there were signs that a dud was in the range of outcomes.
If anything, we’ve seen the two extremes of what Fields can do in this offense under OC Tanner Engstrand. But let’s consider his latest defensive matchup and also understand his status is uncertain for a Week 3 matchup against Tampa Bay as he goes through concussion protocol. Accordingly, let’s look ahead to some of the units he’ll face in the near future (Miami – Week 4, Dallas – Week 5, Carolina – Week 7, Cincinnati – Week 8). So, yes, let’s pull back on our excitement after one good outing, but be ready to capitalize on better environments in the near future.
Panic Meter: Moderate
Jordan Mason will keep the Vikings moving 💨
Based on our earlier discussion about the Chiefs, we can take the "next-man-up" principle a bit too far. Luckily, Minnesota kept it simple for us.
Aaron Jones’ hamstring injury puts backup rusher Jordan Mason in the driver’s seat for at least the next month. On the one hand, this vindicates the former 49ers’ mid-round ADP. However, we don’t know how many touches Cam Akers will earn. Or if more signings will happen at all. So, let’s try to answer one question:
Does Mason have the profile and talent to serve as the RB1?
From what we’ve seen over the last two weeks, absolutely.
Mason’s 15 attempts in Week 1 compared to eight for the veteran emphasized offseason reports of a ‘1A-1B’ structure between the two. But it wasn’t just the fact that 26-year-old RB was leading the Vikings’ rushing attack in their debut. It was what he did with his opportunity.
Adj. Yards After Contact per Carry: 3.93, 4th (out of 20 qualified RBs – min. 50.0% rushing share)
Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 20.0%, 6th
Rushing Success Rate: 46.7%, 5th
Despite an RB29 finish in PPR leagues, Mason’s peripherals had him in line with the best at his position. He was even involved in the passing game (29.2% route rate, one target). In other words, he could be effective in most scenarios conducive to fantasy points. But it’s the areas that might not show up in the box score that should have fantasy managers confident in who they’ve got on their roster.
Admittedly, I’m only highlighting one rep in a single game. But Mason didn’t allow pressure against the Bears. It wasn’t until the Falcons blitzed J.J. McCarthy on 40.0% of his dropbacks in primetime that his protection faltered. Regardless, Mason has at least been able to highlight his effectiveness in every phase of the offense, and his share of the touches should have him as a top-24 RB until Jones returns.
Panic Meter: Low
No Burrow is a huge problem 😩
So, let me get this straight. Cincinnati gets through a normal offseason. They get their “fast start” with two wins. But the Bengals will have to build on their unprecedented early-season success without Joe Burrow.
It’s not fair.
Yes, I’m coping.
Anyway, if you’re rostering someone with "CIN" next to their name, it’s reasonable to worry about their output with Jake Browning. Well, everyone except Ja’Marr Chase.
Chase’s seven targets (28.0% share) shouldn’t be the only metric keeping fantasy managers’ hopes alive. It’s how head coach Zac Taylor deployed his WR1. The Triple Crown winner ran 27.3% of his routes from the slot. Plus, he primarily operated in the short area of the field. Over half of his looks were seven air yards or less. His best friend didn’t have as easy a time.
Tee Higgins accrued 42 yards off passes from Browning. All of them came on the (somewhat flukey) TD catch. Otherwise, Higgins’ role on the boundary was problematic. He averaged less than a yard of separation. The typical passes from Burrow on outbreakers require timing Higgins doesn’t have with Browning. Even worse, we’ve seen this volatile style of play for the Bengals’ 1B before.
Target Share (2023, Weeks 13-15): 19.6% (Chase), 14.7% (Higgins)
Air Yards per Target: 8.0, 17.4
Reception Rate: 90.0%, 60.0%
Browning played three full games with the duo in ’23. Chase got a mix of screens, hitches, and in-breaking concepts (routes used on 9 of his 18 receptions). Meanwhile, Higgins played the game on hard mode, with almost half of his catches coming on go routes or corners. And now, we’ll likely be looking at the same situation for the bulk of the regular season.
On the bright side, Browning can pilot a viable version of the offense. At 37.3 dropbacks per game (just three less than Burrow), he plays more under center than No. 9, which should open up the playbook. Plus, Browning still involved his RB in the passing game (13.7% share), giving some life to Chase Brown. However, with either QB seeing pressure on over 30.0% of their dropbacks, a lot will have to change for us to have any confidence in the Bengals' skill players.
Panic Meter: High