Week 12 NFL against-the-spread picks, predictions for every game: Cowboys can prove themselves vs. Eagles
When the Dallas Cowboys beat the Washington Commanders in Week 7, there was talk about them being playoff contenders. As it turns out, they simply beat a bad team. Dallas lost by double digits in its next two games.
We have not learned a lesson from that.
A Cowboys win over the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night started another round of wishcasting 4-5-1 Dallas into the playoff conversation. The Raiders are one of the NFL's worst teams and played like it on Monday night. Dallas' list of wins this season looks like the top of the 2026 NFL Draft order: Giants, Jets, Commanders, Raiders.
If the Cowboys start getting playoff hype when they beat bad teams, just imagine the conversation if they win this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles come to Dallas. They're 8-2 and while their offensive issues are undeniable, the defense has come alive. They've allowed 16 total points over the last two weeks to the Packers and Lions. The Eagles seems like the unhappiest good team in recent memory, but they are good. And Dallas has had trouble with good teams.
Maybe this is the week the Cowboys win and actually deserve a spot in the playoff discussion. But until they get that quality win, Eagles -3.5 is the pick. It won't be as easy for Dallas as it was facing the Raiders.
Here are the rest of the picks for Week 12 of the NFL season, with all odds from BetMGM:
Texans (+6) over Bills
The Texans will be without C.J. Stroud again, and they didn't look great with Davis Mills at the Titans last week, but the defense is fantastic. It leads the NFL in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play. The Bills' defense is 19th in that metric. Josh Allen his coming off a phenomenal game and he's always capable of carrying the Bills to an emphatic win. But it's a lot of points against a top-tier defense.
Vikings (+6.5) over Packers
The Packers' 3-7 record against the spread is by far the worst among teams with a winning straight-up record. That tracks with what we know of the Packers, that even when they win it's never easy, even against bad teams. Last week they trailed the 2-9 Giants, who were down to their third quarterback of the season, with five minutes left. The Vikings are struggling with quarterback J.J. McCarthy failing to create much, but the Packers just don't blow out teams.
Bears (-2.5) over Steelers
Both of these teams are in first place, and both are flawed. The Steelers have looked really bad at times, and the Bears keep surviving on close wins. The Steelers have played four road games, and while they won two, they have been significantly outgained in each of them. Add on Aaron Rodgers' wrist injury, and it's a hesitant pick for the flawed division leader that is at least playing at home.
Bengals (+7) over Patriots
This line keeps moving. It was Patriots -5.5 last weekend, then -6 on Monday morning, -7.5 on Monday night (after Ja'Marr Chase's suspension) and went up to 8.5 late Wednesday. That turned again and is Bengals +7 as of Thursday morning. Odd. The Bengals are not good, but they can score even without Chase, and the Patriots defense isn't great. Perhaps we saw the Bengals' crash to Earth begin last week at Pittsburgh, but we'll give them one more try.
Lions (-10.5) over Giants
The Giants deserve credit for battling. They're 2-9. They've lost five in a row. Yet, they led the Bears and Packers in the fourth quarter in each of the past two weeks. It's hard to keep that up though when there aren't any positive results. When the Lions are cooking it's impressive, and they'll want to take out some frustration on the Giants. They followed up their first three losses with wins by 31, 15 and 22 points.
Titans (+13.5) over Seahawks
The Titans are really bad, but they've covered the spread the last two weeks. The Titans' loss to the Texans last week was their most competitive game of the season (and that counts their win over the Cardinals). The Seahawks might be the best team in the NFL (they're still No. 1 in DVOA), and the Titans are unquestionably the worst, but we'll blindly take a home underdog getting almost two touchdowns.
Chiefs (-3.5) over Colts
The Chiefs moved from -3 to -3.5, which is significant. Oddsmakers don't like moving the spread when it's at a key number like -3. But this does seem like a good spot for the Chiefs. The Colts are coming off a bye, and that's tough to ignore, and Indianapolis is a very good team. But the Chiefs are in an urgent spot. It might be now or never for Kansas City.
Jets (+13.5) over Ravens
Did you know the Jets have covered the spread in four of their last five games? Also, do the Jets actually get better on offense with Tyrod Taylor taking over for Justin Fields? Fields' struggles had grown to an uncomfortable level. Taylor can't be worse. It's possible the Ravens blast an undermanned Jets team, but it's another ugly double-digit underdog pick.
Browns (+4) over Raiders
Seeing Shedeur Sanders go 4-of-16 last week has shaped this line. But now Sanders has a full week of practice repetitions, and he should be better. Maybe not great, but better. And the Raiders should not be laying four points to anyone except maybe the Titans. That Raiders' offensive line is about to get demolished by a very good Browns defense. There's more to this game than just Sanders, and just about everything else favors Cleveland.
Jaguars (-3) over Cardinals
Last week, the weirdest line on the board was 49ers -2.5 at Cardinals. The 49ers won 41-22. This week, the weirdest line on the board is Jaguars -3 at Cardinals. Maybe there's a little too much respect for an Arizona team that has lost seven of eight games.
Saints (-1.5) over Falcons
The Falcons' season practically ended last Sunday. They lost at home to the Panthers and found out quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is done for the season. This version of Kirk Cousins isn't saving anyone. The Saints are coming off a bye and the last time we saw them, rookie quarterback Tyler Shough did pretty well.
Buccaneers (+6.5) over Rams
It's possible the Rams have a bit of a letdown after a massive win over the Seahawks. The Buccaneers are a good team that hasn't shown yet it can beat another good team. Their four losses are to the Eagles, Lions, Patriots and Bills. They'll want to change that narrative. The Rams are better, but the Bucs can keep it close.
Panthers (+7) over 49ers
The Panthers are tough to predict. But the 49ers defense is not good. They've given up at least 400 yards four times in their last seven games and more than 350 yards in another. The Panthers had a great offensive game at Atlanta last week, and even if the 49ers take a lead, the backdoor cover will be open for Carolina.
Last week: 7-6-2
Season to date: 88-74-4