My condolences if you faced TreVeyon Henderson last night. But that’s how each week of games starts. TNF is like a splash of water to the face in the morning. It wakes us up, forces us to pay attention to our fantasy rosters and make adjustments. And when you check your matchup and see a Henderson-like deficit on the scoreboard, every player becomes interesting. Each contest has some level of intrigue. There are multiple storylines from each game to cover, but to narrow it down, here are a couple from each to get us on track for Week 11.
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Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins
Even without Jayden Daniels, the offense still averaged over 30 yards per drive, and Marcus Mariota was able to put up 195 passing yards against the Lions’ secondary. Let’s assume the Dolphins don’t treat this game like their Super Bowl, as they did against the Bills. With yet another WR out for Washington, Jaylin Lane becomes interesting in deep leagues. He did run a season-low 27% of the routes, but showed up for the lone explosive play for Mariota in Week 10. Lane would be a desperation start, but the role is worth monitoring.
Tua Tagovailoa should be the top streaming option of the week. The last four QBs to take on the Commanders’ defense have thrown for three or more TDs. Washington will also be without one of their starting defensive tackles in Daron Payne, who is suspended. Head coach Dan Quinn’s defense had already struggled to generate pressure (12.5% and 27.3% pressure rates over their last two), and they’re now down a starter. If there was ever a week to trust Miami’s QB1, it’s Sunday morning.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Based on the Falcons’ last few games, this weekend looks like the ideal spot for Tetairoa McMillan. Alec Pierce just burned Atlanta for 84 yards and a score, Pop Douglas worked the Falcons deep for his first 100-yard game and Jaylen Waddle had a similar statline (5-99-1). Carolina has flipped McMillan’s usage on in-breaking routes to perimeter and deep concepts. Bryce Young’s liability under pressure will cap his upside, but McMillan’s talent should win out.
Atlanta could use a WR2. It’s supposed to be Darnell Mooney. But Mooney and Michael Penix Jr. have yet to connect on the same passes that made the six-year veteran a common sleeper option over the summer. The positive point is that Penix is still looking for him. Mooney had 32% of the team’s air yards on a third of the targets. Assuming the usage continues, the Falcons should be able to find the explosive element to their passing game again.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Luther Burden III got up to 49% of the routes and immediately earned three targets. He’s what the Bears offense needs. I get that Olamide Zaccheaus is useful in run blocking. And DJ Moore should be the savvy veteran. But Burden’s speed is the perfect complement to Rome Odunze’s route running. Plus, with the Vikings likely sending pressure on every snap, a reason to respect Caleb Williams’ downfield passing should keep Minnesota’s secondary in check.
If you haven’t already, go to the fantasy manager with Justin Jefferson and trade for him. J.J. McCarthy isn’t the most stable passer. However, he does know how to throw it to his WR1. Jefferson has over 30% of the targets in every one of McCarthy’s starts. The only problem last week was his 17-yard aDOT. Assuming HC Kevin O’Connell adjusts Jefferson’s depth for more layups, Jefferson has all of the talent to get back into the top 12.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Chase Brown, without Samaje Perine active, was the situation fantasy managers expected coming into the season. Brown’s rushing rate topped 70% for the first time since Week 4 to go with his whopping 30% target share. Pittsburgh just gave up 95 yards on the ground to Kimani Vidal, and Brown cracked the century mark against them in their first matchup a month ago. As the Steelers focus on Joe Flacco and the receivers, Brown should benefit from the attention.
The numbers say DK Metcalf is Aaron Rodgers’ primary option. Metcalf has earned more than 20% of the targets in all but two games. However, as Sunday night highlighted, his role on the boundary (with bracket coverage at times) drops the quality of those throws. Despite collecting 44% of air yards in primetime, Metcalf's 43% catchable target share was the lowest of the season. But if any defense would allow a WR to bounce back, it’s the Bengals.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
The answer to “who benefits from Tucker Kraft’s absence?” may be no one. Luke Musgrave, the heir apparent to Kraft’s TE position, only got three looks. Bo Melton, who switched back from playing CB to WR, earned five but played a part in a critical drop. Even Christian Watson, as the deep speed option, couldn’t get on the same page as Jordan Love. On the plus side, the Giants have allowed multiple passing scores in three of their last four games. But the disconnect displayed on Monday night makes it tough to trust any of them, even in a good matchup.
We need a “Team RB” position in fantasy football. Or some way to combine the best parts of their usage. Tyrone Tracy Jr. reclaimed the starting job with 52% of the carries. But Devin Singletary earned more targets (two for Tracy, three for Singletary). Plus, it was Singletary in short-yardage situations. We should already be lowering expectations for the Giants’ offense with Jaxson Dart sidelined. A split backfield only makes matters worse for fantasy managers needing RB production in Week 11.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Lost in the Davis Mills chaos was Woody Marks’ takeover of the Houston backfield. Nick Chubb did come into the week with a foot injury, but still played against the Jaguars. The rookie took 70% of the carries and tacked on three targets. More importantly, Marks handled all of the goal-line totes. Tennessee is already a top-five matchup for opposing RBs. If his number of snaps and touches continue, Marks should be in the high-end RB2 discussion for Sunday.
Tyjae Spears has secured double-digit touches in two straight games with the type of role conducive to fantasy scoring. Spears played 100% of the snaps in the two-minute drill and earned at least three targets in all but one game since his return. Houston is allowing the ninth-fewest yards to WRs already. If Cam Ward is looking to get the passing game on track coming out of the bye, Spears should be involved in it.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
I was surprised to see Quentin Johnston as a large part of the passing game in primetime last week. It wasn’t just him earning not a single target after missing Week 6 with a hamstring injury. But the continued shuffle along the offensive line. We’ve already watched Justin Herbert’s passing aDOT plummet under similar circumstances earlier in the year. However, in Week 10, Johnston’s receiving aDOT adjusted with his QB’s, maintaining his status. Even if we don’t see any deep shots from Herbert against the Jaguars, Johnston should be on the other end of enough of them to keep him as WR2.
Jakobi Meyers just needs time in the offense. Seeing him as a part-time player (50% route rate) last Sunday, after joining the team a few days prior, makes sense. Regardless, I’d expect to see more snaps and routes for the veteran receiver after a full week of practice with Trevor Lawrence. Assuming Brian Thomas Jr. returns, Meyers should fall into a flanker position best-suited for his skillset, and one that should be able to get by the Chargers’ secondary.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
Tez Johnson was one of the popular waiver claims this week after his two-touchdown performance last Sunday. However, I’d like to see his role grow within the offense. Even with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. out, Johnson has just one game over 20% of the targets. His affinity for catching long TDs is a gift. But as fantasy managers hunt for more reliable usage (e.g., third-down looks, play-action volume), Johnson may look more like a flash in the pan than an every-week starter.
I don’t know what this Bills’ offense is once you take away Dalton Kincaid. Honestly, I’d say the same if it were Khalil Shakir battling a hamstring injury. They are Josh Allen’s guys. The same situations I was just mentioning that Tez Johnson should find himself a part of, that’s where you’ll see Kincaid for Buffalo. And normally, we’d use the “next man up” approach and acquire another receiver in the same offense. But nobody plays well enough to start in real or fantasy football. So, while I want to stack Allen with a pass-catcher from his team, until I see it on the field, I can’t trust any of them.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Sunday will be the day that OC Klint Kubiak unleashes his new (old?) toy onto the NFC West, right? Rashid Shaheed has had almost two weeks to get on the same page with Sam Darnold. Even last week, the former Saint got a couple of manufactured touches, including a screen and two end-arounds out of the backfield. The Sam Darnold to Jaxon Smith-Njigba connection is enough to keep defenses occupied. Shaheed as a downfield threat gives this offense a much-needed dimension.
Blake Corum has earned double-digit touches in three straight games. However, they were all blowout wins for the Rams. So, it’s fair to wonder if the second-year rusher’s volume has been game-script dependent. And Sunday won’t be so easy for the Rams, as they’re just three-point favorites. At worst, Corum should be a contingent RB with upside if Kyren Williams sustains an injury. But we should all be watching to see if the tight split continues in Week 11.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Did anyone else flash to the title sequence of The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King when the Brock Purdy news dropped? Just me? Well, fine. Anyway, Purdy’s return and his mobility while managing the pocket will be interesting to track. Regardless, managers with George Kittle on their rosters should be smiling. Week 10 was Kittle’s first week with over 20% of the targets, and we know Purdy’s affinity for looking Kittle’s way in the red zone, making him a top TE for Sunday.
I’m interested to see who steps up in the Cardinals’ offense without Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones on the field. Greg Dortch will be the popular preference. The slot man was barreling into the end zone just last week. However, Michael Wilson should garner some interest. His route running isn’t as polished as Harrison’s, but he could take on some of the timing concepts that Jacoby Brissett has used to keep the offense on schedule. And against the 49ers’ defense, Wilson should have some viability in deeper leagues.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
The good news for Xavier Worthy is that he’s still a large part of the offense. His target shares have been on a steady incline from 12% in Week 7 to 24% before the Chiefs’ bye. However, as his attempts have gone up, the quality of those looks has gone down. Week 9 was his second-lowest catchable target rate of the season (43%). Denver should be without top corner Pat Surtain II, leaving the perimeter open for completions downfield. While Rashee Rice should continue to lead the team in volume, Worthy’s opportunity should result in a fantasy-worthy performance on Sunday so long as he can shake off a late-week ankle injury.
I understand the skepticism, but RJ Harvey should lead the backfield with J.K. Dobbins sidelined. And I don’t mean he’ll have 50.5% of the carries. The rookie should take on Dobbins’ role with a share at or near 65%. The veteran had top-10 marks in rushing success rate, forced missed tackle rate and adjusted yards after contact. He should’ve been on the field. But from the flashes we’ve seen from Harvey, his talent warrants a similar level of volume in a tough divisional matchup.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Rashod Bateman’s ankle sprain leaves the Ravens with one fewer WR out on the field during passing plays. I’d be looking to Isaiah Likely to fill in the gap. Of course, they’re not the same archetype of pass-catcher. Baltimore’s TE2 operates in the short area of the field (5.9-yard aDOT). But he has shown a rapport with Lamar Jackson on crossing routes and has been a safety valve when Jackson has been under pressure. Cleveland’s going to send as many pass rushers as possible to keep Jackson under wraps, making Likely a sneaky option for Week 11.
I’m trying not to take too much away from Jerry Jeudy’s 12-target game in Week 10. If it were anyone else, on any other offense, we’d stash them on our benches. But Dillon Gabriel’s still trying to finish a game with a passing success rate over 40%. And Jeudy’s volume couldn’t come without at least one drop from the veteran receiver. The schedule opens up after this week, so if Jeudy can lead the team in targets again, I’ll have some interest.
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles
HC Dan Campbell taking over play-calling couldn’t have come at a better time. OC John Morton was like Goldilocks trying to figure out how to use Jameson Williams. The Lions’ WR2 would have weeks with high volume or a deep aDOT. Or just a few looks in the short part of the field. Campbell knew the right combination of intermediate crossers to get his speedster back on track. And against the Eagles’ defense, he’ll need as many options as possible to keep Jared Goff upright.
I’m going to be stubborn this weekend. A.J. Brown will have a top-12 performance against the Lions. Detroit will be without two defensive starters. Everyone will be looking to DeVonta Smith and (maybe) Dallas Goedert. But the Lions’ shift to man coverage to mitigate their gaps in the secondary should result in the matchups Jalen Hurts needs to target Brown. He can tell fantasy managers to drop him all he wants. His role against this defense is the swing for the fences we look for in fantasy.
Dallas Cowboys @ Las Vegas Raiders
CeeDee Lamb has been the Cowboys’ WR1 since he returned from his injury. Since Week 7, he’s been at or above 25% of Dak Prescott’s targets in every game. But Lamb hasn’t been the overall WR1 all season. Actually, he hasn’t been close. His best finish was the WR10 back in Week 2. The Raiders have allowed the fifth-most PPR PPG to opposing WRs on the season. And their pass rush would lend itself to quick throws to receivers capable of creating separation. Both elements set up Lamb for a big day, and with his opportunity, his WR1 role should turn into a WR1 result.
I’m buying Tyler Lockett’s result from Week 10. The veteran came in and earned 25% of the looks from his old QB. But it wasn’t just the total, but the context of the throws. Lockett had the second-most attempts thrown his way when Geno Smith was under pressure. The former Seahawk also led the team in attempts in obvious passing situations. Their connection from Seattle hasn’t gone away, and with Smith expected to be under siege from the Cowboys’ pass rush, Lockett should continue to be the second option for the Raiders.
Patrick Daugherty
Matthew Berry