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Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit: Players in great spots for Week 12, including Shedeur Sanders as a deep sleeper

Using matchup data, I’ve got 12 sleepers that could help your fantasy football teams get these much needed wins and help propel you toward the fantasy playoffs. Good luck and let’s go….

Quarterbacks

Jacoby Brissett vs. JAX

  • The Jags defense had a great showing against Justin Herbert last week but overall they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to the position.

  • They had given up 25+ fantasy points in three consecutive games prior to Week 11 where Matt Stafford started the party but quarterbacks like Geno Smith and Davis Mills came through and mopped up as well.

  • Brissett has put on the fantasy Superman cape: since becoming a starter in Week 6, he’s the QB8 in total scoring and the QB4 (!!!) in per game scoring, averaging 21.9 FPPG. I literally cannot believe I just typed that out.

Sam Darnold vs. TEN

  • Three of the last four quarterbacks the Titans have faced have scored 23+ fantasy points. 

  • The Titans are especially weak at outside corner. They’ve allowed a 71.1% completion rate to outside receivers, ranking dead last, while also giving up the fifth-most yards. This bodes well for Darnold who should force feed Jaxon Smith-Njigba all game with reckless abandon.

Bryce Young vs. SF

  • The Niners are dead last in sacks per game and quarterback pressure rate this season. Consistently clean pockets have resulted in opposing quarterbacks torching this Niners defense.

  • The aforementioned Brissett was the latest of four consecutive quarterbacks to drop 20+ fantasy points against this defense (Stafford, Jaxson Dart, C.J. Stroud).

  • Young is coming off the best game of his NFL career: his 448 passing yards last week against Atlanta was a career high by a wide margin and he tossed three touchdowns for only the second time in his career, tying a career high.

DEEP SLEEPER: Shedeur Sanders vs. LV

  • The pass defense has been up-and-down but overall the Raiders have forced the second-lowest QB pressure rate. As a pure pocket passer, this bodes well for Sanders.

  • The stat line from Sanders' first NFL action in Week 11 was atrocious (4 of 16 for 47 yards and a pick) but when you watch the film, he honestly wasn’t as bad as the counting stats suggest. He played well on the handful of snaps where the offensive line didn’t immediately collapse. Ball placement was good and he showed A LOT more juice in his arm strength than Dillon Gabriel.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara vs. ATL

  • Watch the injury report as Kamara is nursing an ankle injury but he was a limited participant on back-to-back practices to start the week.

  • If he’s good to go, he’s got a great matchup as the Falcons give up the fourth-most FPPG to the position. Six different running backs have scored 11+ PPR points in Atlanta’s past five games. This includes a 49-point PPR game to Colts RB Jonathan Taylor and a 39-point game to 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey.

  • The 4.1 yards after contact per carry allowed ranks as second-worst in the NFL.

  • Kamara is coming off one of his better rushing games this year when he ran for 83 yards against Carolina in Week 10.

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. CIN

  • Everyone is obviously goo-goo, ga-ga over TreVeyon Henderson but if Stevenson (toe) is healthy enough to play, he’s in a great spot. The Bengals have given up the most FPPG to opposing backs this season, including the most total touchdowns.

  • The 5.36 YPC allowed to RB’s ranks as third-worst and they’re dead last in run stuff rate.

  • While Henderson has been explosive and impressive, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see Stevenson in a 50-50 split.

Kenneth Gainwell vs. CHI

  • Jaylen Warren is working through an ankle injury; he posted a DNP and a LP to start the week of practice. Even if Warren plays, you figure he’ll be compromised somewhat, meaning Gainwell should have a healthy snap share.

  • The matchup is pristine. The Steelers have the fifth-highest outside run rate and the Bears have struggled mightily containing outside runs. Per Next Gen Stats, the 6.01 YPC allowed on outside runs ranks as second-worst and Chicago is fifth-worst in terms of explosive run rate allowed to the outside.

Wide Receivers

Cedric Tillman vs. LV

  • Kyu Blu Kelly has been BRUTAL as an outside corner and as a result the Raiders have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to outside receivers, including the third-most receptions and yards.

  • I highlighted the lack of pressure generated by this defensive line earlier, and with Sanders in there, his increased arm strength can help unlock Tillman’s route tree.

  • Per Reception Perception, Tillman’s two most run routes were digs and slants where he also posted strong success rates. This pairs well with Sanders. His Reception Perception charting shows Shedeur favoring in-breaking routes as well.

  • Not counting screens and checkdowns, Sanders targeted players on in-breaking routes on 32.5% of his throws (just 18.2% on out-breaking routes).

Jalen Coker vs. SF

  • Coker heads get hyped! Slot receivers have done serious work against the Niners. Greg Dortch of all folks scored a touchdown and posted 18.6 PPR points last week and slot men like Wan’Dale Robinson (13.6 PPR) and Jaylin Noel (11.3 PPR) have done reasonably well in recent weeks as well.

  • Overall, the Niners have given up the most FPPG to receivers lined up inside.

Michael Wilson vs. JAX

  • With Marvin Harrison Jr. out another week, let’s run it back with the guy who caught 15 passes for 185 yards last week.

  • The Jags have been blasted by outside wide receivers at various points this season and overall this secondary has allowed the third-most FPPG to receivers lined up outside.

  • The 48.5 projected total for this game suggests points could flow on both sides.

Rashid Shaheed vs. TEN

  • JSN is in a smash spot but the matchup is great for Shaheed as well. The Titans' 71.1% completion rate allowed to outside receivers ranks as dead last in the NFL. They’ve given up the fifth-most receptions, yards and fantasy points per game to the outside.

  • The Titans are also quite susceptible to giving up big plays. The 10.1 yards per pass attempt to outside receivers ranks as second-worst while the five touchdowns given up on deep passes is tied for the third-most. For a deep threat like Shaheed, he could be one big play away from being quite profitable in fantasy this week.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry vs. CIN

  • Triple H has the pedigree to be a true TE1 this week. This is likely every fantasy analyst’s favorite streaming TE as the Bengals have been terrible defending the position, giving up the most fantasy points per game.

  • Eight different tight ends have scored double-digit PPR points against the Bengals over their past eight matchups.

Fantasy Football: 6 player projections that don't make sense for Week 12

Hello Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you’ll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I’ll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I’ll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 PM ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)

[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]

Last week’s list was pretty spot on, most notably with the Michael Wilson explosion. Chase Brown also had a very strong day with plenty of pass volume, and the pair of elite WRs I tabbed for a down day both had exactly that; Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown combined for just five catches. On to Week 12 …

Emanuel Wilson, RB, Packers

THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 19.6 carries, 2.9 receptions, 108 yards, 0.82 TD

Week 11 vs. ROS: RB6 vs. RB59

This one is contingent upon Josh Jacobs missing this week, which is looking fairly likely as of this writing. Assuming that’s the case, Wilson sets up as an absolute smash play in Week 12. He picked up basically all of the work when Jacobs left the game last week, and that would figure to continue into this week. He’s a capable pass-catcher who would get a ton more work through the air, as well as most on the ground in a game that Green Bay is nearly a full touchdown favorite. The projection here is insanely good.

Darnell Mooney (and KhaDarel Hodge), WR, Falcons

THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 8.5 targets, 4.6 receptions, 62 yards, 0.31 TD

Week 11 vs. ROS: WR25 vs. WR44

Drake London sustained a knee injury at the end of last week’s game and is almost certain to miss this week. When that happens, Mooney will step up as the team’s top pass-catcher. He’s been quiet this year after an early-season injury, but the coachspeak of late has been very favorable. Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson has had this to say about him over the last couple of weeks (source: Coachspeak Index Discord):

“[Darnell] Mooney is so close to breaking out. I’m excited to see when that’s gonna come up … He’s very close to breaking out. I can feel it in practice.

We’ve said the last couple weeks that it feels like Darnell Mooney is close to being unlocked. I anticipate him getting a high volume of targets at some point here, and I anticipate him taking off."

With London now out, there isn’t a more obvious time for the team to get Mooney going. They’re likely to go with a very run-heavy game plan with Michael Penix Jr. also out, but they face a fast-paced Saints team in a game that projects for the most play volume of the entire week.

Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens

THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 20.5 attempts, 1.2 receptions, 105 yards, 0.86 TD

Week 11 vs. ROS: RB10 vs. RB20

Given his lack of pass-catching involvement, it’s rare for Henry to crack the top-10 projected running backs on any given week. But when he does, it’s in matchups like this one. When Baltimore is playing from ahead, Henry tends to get more work in the pass game and a heavier load on the ground as the team tries to salt the game away. As 13.5-point favorites against the Jets, this very much sets up as a Derrick Henry kind of game.

Tyler Warren, TE, Colts

THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 7.2 targets, 4.8 receptions, 53 yards, 0.39 TD

Week 11 vs. ROS: TE5 vs. TE3

Warren has established himself as a premier fantasy tight end this year, but this week doesn’t set up especially favorably for him. The Colts go on the road, outdoors, into Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, which is going to be a tough spot for QB Daniel Jones to bounce back from his recent rough outings. Moreover, Warren does better against zone defenses, but the Chiefs play zone at the fifth-lowest rate in the league. Josh Downs and Alec Pierce have tended to be more successful against man shells, so it’s possible we see the offense shift more their way in a week where the upside for the offense as a whole is more limited than usual.

Breece Hall, RB, Jets

THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 17.4 carries, 2.8 receptions, 95 yards, 0.42 TD

Week 11 vs. ROS: RB15 vs. RB8

Hall is the anti-Henry this week, with game script very much working against him. The Jets are playing as nearly two-full-touchdown underdogs, which should mean minimal opportunities for him to run as the game gets out of hand. It’s also possible the team goes more pass-heavy than usual, even early on, with Tyrod Taylor under center. In their lone game starting Taylor earlier this year, the team was 5% more pass-heavy than average (adjusted for context) compared to 13% below-average in games with Justin Fields. And while Hall certainly has plenty of pass-catching ability, he simply hasn’t been used in that role as much this year as in the past.

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Vikings

THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 34.8 attempts, 19.7 completions, 215 yards, 1.26 TD

Week 11 vs. ROS: 15.5 points vs. 17.7 points per game

I’m willing to admit when I’m wrong, and so far I have been very wrong on McCarthy. I still think any half-way competent NFL quarterback should be able to succeed in his position — great coaching and system, great supporting cast, home games indoors. McCarthy has at least, in part, been on the bad side of variance, but this week does not set up as a particularly good one for a bounce-back. He faces a tough Green Bay defense on the road, away from the dome.

Fantasy Football Week 12: Cardinals vs. Jaguars, Bears vs. Steelers, and other matchups to exploit

Each week of the 2025 NFL regular season, I’ll use this space to highlight teams facing various funnel defenses and fantasy options who could benefit.

What’s a Funnel Defense?

A funnel defense, in case you’re wondering, is a defense that faces an unusually high rate of pass attempts or rushes. I’ll take a close look at how opponents are playing these defenses in neutral game script — when the game is within a touchdown either way — and how good or bad these rush and pass defenses have been of late.

Identifying funnel defenses is hardly an exact science, and whacked-out game script can always foil our best-laid plans. It happens. I’ve found it useful in recent seasons to analyze matchups through this lens to see if there are any useful additions to the always-agonizing start-sit process we put ourselves through every week.

With more data, this analysis will improve. It happens every season. We are eyeball deep in data headed into Week 12.

Jacksonville Jaguars v Cincinnati Bengals
RotoPat’s Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 12’s top plays at quarterback, running back, receiver, tight end, kicker and defense.

▶ Pass Funnel Matchups

Cardinals vs. Jaguars

Someday this glorious, fantasy-rich run from Jacoby Brissett and the Arizona offense will come to an end. We will remember it fondly, all these lovely air yards and real yards and drop backs and pass attempts and wildly negative game script that leaves the Cardinals no choice but to feed us our fantasy points. We’re gorging ourselves. It’s great.

Week 12 is not that week. Brissett and the Cards take on the NFL’s preeminent pass funnel defense this week: Jacksonville opponents this season have passed the ball at a 65 percent rate in neutral situations (when the game is within one score). No team is even close to that mark. Eight of the ten teams to face the Jags in 2025 have been over their expected pass rate. Only the 49ers — last week’s Arizona opponent — have seen more air yards against them than the Jags since Week 6.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 7 percent over their expected pass rate since Brissett took over for the fantasy-irrelevant Kyler Murray.

Brissett, who has dropped back to pass 110 times over the past two weeks, is certainly a viable 12-team starter in Week 12 based on volume alone. Trey McBride is a smash play, as per usual, and Michael Wilson has every chance to stay hotter than my feet in dress shoes in a matchup against a Jaguars secondary that has allowed the third most receptions and the fourth most receiving yards to boundary wideouts. Marvin Harrison, Jr., in case you haven’t kept it locked to Rotoworld (shame on you), has been declared out for Week 12.

Greg Dortch’s Week 12 outlook is slightly less appealing. The Jaguars have shut down opposing slot guys all season, allowing a league-low 58 percent completion rate on passes to the slot. Dortch, who operated from the slot on 80 percent of his routes last week against the 49ers, could still be fantasy viable based on the Cards’ drop back volume.

Syndication: The Enquirer
Fantasy Football Injury Report Week 12: Joe Burrow nears return, Jaxson Dart, Dalton Kincaid updates
Follow the latest injury news for fantasy football lineups in Week 12.

Bears vs. Steelers

The Steelers for a while vacillated between run funnel and pass funnel status. Over the past five weeks they’ve landed firmly in the pass funnel camp. No defense, in fact, has seen a higher neutral pass rate against them (66 percent) over the stretch. Since Week 3 — when teams really started leaning toward the pass against the Steelers — no team has faced a higher pass rate over expected.

Teams are letting it rip against Pittsburgh.

The Bears could be forced out of their stubbornly run heavy ways if they join the teams that have attacked the Steelers via the pass in Week 12. It would be a marked change for Chicago, which has the fourth lowest neutral pass rate (49 percent) since Week 5. The Bears have been especially run heavy inside the 20 yard line. It’s very much limited pass volume for Caleb Williams and the team’s pass catchers.

A boost in drop backs and pass attempts against the pass-funnel Steelers would be a boon primarily for Rome Odunze, whose air yards profile is gleaming, as I wrote in this week’s Regression Files. The air yards could flow here for the Bears: Chicago opponents have averaged 265 air yards per game this season, the ninth highest rate. If Caleb could ever throw a catchable downfield shot to Odunze, Rome might cook.

I guess this would also help DJ Moore, though his low targets per route run (16 percent) suggest Moore is simply not a real part of this passing offense. Luther Burden is far more interesting a week after he (finally, at long last) took over slot duties for the Bears.

Burden ran a route on 62 percent of Caleb’s drop backs and was targeted on 23 percent of those routes. An unusually pass-happy approach for the Bears in Week 12 could create the sort of inflated environment Burden will need to be a startable fantasy option. A mere six defenses have faced more slot targets this season than the Steelers. That could also be meaningful for Cole Kmet or Colston Loveland, who’s still running behind Kmet for reasons that cannot be explained by science.

Panthers vs. 49ers

I’m going to be bold and say Bryce Young won’t throw for 448 yards this week against the Niners like he did in Week 11 against the lifeless Falcons. But he could come close!

That’s because the Niners — one of the worst, most injury-marred defenses in football since mid-October — are a pronounced pass funnel. Since Week 5, San Francisco opponents have a 64 percent neutral pass rate. Six of their past seven opponents have been well over their expected pass rate.

The Panthers in Week 11 abandoned their run-first, run-always offensive approach and went a whole percentage point over their expected pass rate. That led to 45 pass attempts for Young. He wasn’t terribly efficient but he got the job done thanks to that sweet, sweet volume.

We could very well see that again against the 49ers. It should open up a path to another ceiling game for Tetairoa McMillan and makes Xavier Legette — who had eight targets in last week’s high-volume outing — interesting for deep-league purposes.

I’m not sure this means much for anyone besides McMillan and Legette. Jalen Coker ran a bunch of routes last week but managed a target on just 10 percent of those routes. Coker, however, plays primarily from the slot and this week goes against a 49ers defense allowing a league high 95 receptions to slot guys. So maybe he has some appeal if this game goes off. Meanwhile, Tommy Tremble and Ja’Tavion Sanders are splitting tight end routes and targets, making neither of them fantasy viable.

▶ Run Funnel Matchup

Vikings vs. Packers

The Packers have faced the fourth lowest pass rate over expected through Week 11 and the Vikings are finding new and inventive ways to hide their rookie quarterback who only plays reasonably well in fourth quarter drives against the Chicago Bears.

That would seem like a good recipe for a run-heavy approach for the Vikings if they can keep things halfway normal against Green Bay in Week 12. The Packers since Week 6 have been one of the NFL’s most extreme run funnels, seeing a 50 percent neutral pass rate. Just last week the Giants had their run-heaviest game of 2025 against these Packers. The G-people were 18.5 percent below their expected pass rate and had a 45 percent neutral pass rate. It’s the kind of thing you might see in a Tuesday night MAC matchup.

Look for the Vikings this week to give a big workload to Aaron Jones and — to a much lesser extent — Jordan Mason. Jones has out-carried Mason 25 to 10 over the past two games while dominating pass-catching work out of the Minnesota backfield. Green Bay’s rush defense isn’t terrible, but it isn’t great either. They allow the league’s ninth highest rate of rush yards before contact and a middling rushing success rate. Jones is something close to a must-start against the Packers.

If the Vikings are determined to establish it against Green Bay, pass volume will once again suffer and trim the ceilings of both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The Vikings, led by JJ McCarthy — also known as Nine — have averaged just 27 passes per game over their past three outings. The Vikings are a low-volume offense in general, averaging 52 plays per game, the fifth lowest in the NFL. It’s enough to create a miserable fantasy environment for Jefferson and Addison (and TJ Hockenson, who is not startable in 12-team leagues).

I’d be remiss — and I’m never remiss — if I didn’t mention that the Vikings defense has become a reliable run funnel over the past month and a half. Probably that means Emanuel Wilson is in for a solid workload, maybe a fantastic one, if the Packers stick with their run-first ways without Josh Jacobs. Wilson checks a lot of nerdy analytics boxes and he’s facing a Minnesota defense that has seen opponents run the ball at a 51 percent rate in neutral situations since Week 6.

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