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Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through the 10 players and situations. After four weeks shaped by injuries and breakouts, how will the trends of fantasy football define Week 5?

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Derrick Henry takes hit with Cooper Rush under center

​As if things weren’t already bad enough for Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson goes down. Henry has 12 or fewer carries in three out of four games, a trend that occurred in only one of 17 games in 2024, as the Ravens continue to prioritize early-down passing. Cooper Rush coming in doesn’t give me hope in positive change for Week 5 and beyond. The Ravens have the 32nd-ranked scoring defense this year, with a completely new offense to adapt to, following the injury to Jackson.

​Jackson’s dual-threat ability opens up rushing lanes more than anything, and there’s proof. In four of the last six years, the starting Baltimore RB has led the NFL in yards per carry. The Ravens have the best yards before contact this year, despite dropping from third to 14th in run block win rate. All thanks to Lamar’s drawing attention on designed runs. Rush can be solid, but if he leads his offense to 20 PPG like in 2024, the volume will stay low because of this defense, and the efficiency will join along with it.​

How will Jaylen Waddle perform without Tyreek Hill?

The sample size is small, but it’s what you’d expect. In Jaylen Waddle’s only game without Tyreek Hill since 2022, he had eight receptions for 142 yards and a touchdown in the 2023 fantasy playoffs. Waddle was once a player who finished as the overall WR8 with Hill in 2023, and WR13 without him in his rookie season. The Dolphins will need that version if they are to put together a winning streak without Hill.

To broaden the sample size, on routes run since 2022 with Hill taking a breather on the sideline, Waddle’s targets per route jumped from 20% to 28%, with his yards per route rising to 2.8 (would be fourth-best among WR this season). The main issue for Waddle has been that he’s taken a clear backseat in terms of being the first read to Hill and RB De'Von Achane, which, in a Mike McDaniel offense built on timing and targeting that first read often, can be detrimental. Let’s get Waddle back into a star wideout role, seeing his old target numbers between 8-9 per game, both being used intentionally and often.​

Jordan Mason has a rough month ahead

The Jordan Mason experience has seen its highs and lows. As an NFL player and rusher, amazing, but we’re playing fantasy football. In order to be a lineup lock and matchup proof, fantasy running backs need not just efficient rushing but passing-game work, something Mason has only seen decreasing hope in. Being a matchup-dependent RB can be very useful; however, for Mason’s case, it is a tough road to bank on.​

David Montgomery entered Week 4 on fire, averaging nearly seven yards per carry. Then he had nine for 12 yards versus Cleveland. This Browns defense is ruthless. They are the only defense in the NFL that averages a negative amount of yards before contact allowed, setting up fantasy traps for any RB who doesn’t get receiving. The hope is that Dillon Gabriel helps Mason out with some easy red zone trips and volume, but even then, it’s hard not to look ahead. Next week is the Vikings' bye week, followed by the Eagles, Chargers and Lions, where Aaron Jones Sr. will return at some point in that mess.

Dillon Gabriel’s effect on the Browns offense

There’s being thrown in the fire and then there’s being set up for failure. My worry is we’re getting the latter on Sunday. Dillon Gabriel will go against a Brian Flores defense, which is one of the most complex in the NFL, pressures the QB at an extreme rate (45%+) and has consistently destroyed young quarterbacks. The Vikings' defense has gone up against three inexperienced QBs so far: Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr. and Jake Browning. All three averaged under seven yards per attempt with a combined two passing touchdowns.

Don’t get me wrong, a quarterback change is needed in Cleveland, and anything new provides a glimmer of hope for fantasy usage turning into fantasy success. Quinshon Judkins can be the focal point of this offense, Harold Fannin Jr. can turn his TE1-level usage into something more tangible, and maybe even Jerry Jeudy can bounce back. Gabriel had a long college career and has shown he can play well within a well-coached system, best displayed last year at Oregon. I’m just not confident traveling across the world, versus the No. 1 defense in EPA/dropback is where it all comes together.

Which Cardinals RB to play: Michael Carter or Emari Demercado?

No James Connor, no Trey Benson, now what? The Cardinals are giving us a rare situation where their RB3 and RB4 have both been in this situation before. Michael Carter was the guy at the end of last season with no Trey Benson, Emari Demercado and Connor going down in the middle of Week 17 to injury. In those final two games, 36 of the 43 Arizona RB touches without Connor went to Carter. The coaches have proven trust in a practice squad RB taking the bulk of the work, as Connor not only had 80% of the snaps but 60 of 69 RB routes run. ​

The last time we saw Demercado as the main guy was in 2023 for two games. However, throughout his career, he’s had more of a passing-down role than an all-around role. In his career, 72% of Demercado’s snaps have been on pass plays. I do not expect it to be by much, but if I had to choose who has a higher workload between the two, I would say Carter. If you need a desperate start, the Titans are the team to attack.

Can Jameson Williams bounce back? 

The stats don’t always tell the whole story. Last week, Jameson Williams had five fantasy points, yet he nearly had 100. I went and looked at all eight of his targets after noticing he ended the day with 215 air yards. The biggest shock I found when looking into his usage was Williams’ average depth of target. The Lions, once again, talked all offseason about Williams' expansion of his route tree and using him in a larger role. We’re four games in, and his depth of target has gone from 12 yards on average to 21 (the 2nd-highest in the NFL to Tyquan Thornton).​

There is a positive, though, when looking at the tape. Although his one-dimensionality makes him an obvious boom-bust player, he’s being used creatively downfield, not just on straight ‘Go’ routes from the outside. QB Jared Goff and Williams were inches away from multiple 50-yard touchdowns, on top of a drop and throws affected by pressure. Now the Lions get the Bengals defense, which ranks sixth-worst versus wideouts and fails to pressure the QB consistently. He’s always a risk, but this risk could be the deciding factor in Week 5, given his recent usage and matchup. ​

Bucs backfield usage without Bucky Irving

Another injury-affected backfield, but this one with more bellcow potential. Sean Tucker has flashed in the past for Tampa Bay. He has also never started a game and has two snaps this season to Rachaad White’s 80. Is White perfect? No. He is trusted, though. 

Even with a rising Bucky Irving, White started every game until Week 18 of last season, playing a prominent role in the Buccaneers offense. Since the start of last year, the Bucs backfield has averaged 26 half-PPR PPG, providing plenty of potential if White were to receive 70% of the workload. With White playing 55% of the snaps with Irving in 2024, I’d expect it to get close to 70% with Tucker. ​

The return of Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels is expected to make his return this week, coming off a knee injury he suffered in Week 2. Both through two weeks of the season and in all of 2024, Daniels was No. 1 in my QB Volume rank. A large majority of that volume comes from his ability to take off and run. Last season, he had 75 scrambles; the next closest was 50. There are two obvious concerns: Does he run as much off the injury, and can he be as great without Terry McLaurin?

If Washington wants to lower his rushing and injury risk, he goes from a top-three fantasy QB to a mid-level QB1 that is much easier to find. Jaxson Dart found success against this tough Chargers defense last week, but again, primarily on the ground. If you have a great QB2 option from draft day, say a Drake Maye or Dak Prescott, I wouldn’t say Daniels is a must start. His rushing usage will be an important sign for the future as well as an indicator on how Jackson’s usage could shift in a similar story.

Rookie trade point

Rookie fantasy players break out at all times. We’ve seen it already from Emeka Egbuka, Omarion Hampton, Ashton Jeanty and Tyler Warren. Plenty more are to come. Listed below are the recent rookie fantasy players who averaged under 15 PPR PPG in the first month and went on to make season-defining production. Last season alone, Brian Thomas Jr. broke out in Week 4, Bo Nix in Week 5, Bucky Irving in Week 6 and Ladd McConkey in Week 7.

They will continue to break out almost weekly. If you are on a winning team, maybe 4-0 or 3-1, buying rookies low before their breakout can be key. You have the luxury of being patient; use it. The three that stick out to me with the biggest long-term ceiling would be Tetairoa McMillan, TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey.​

Brashard Smith a sneaky add this week

I get asked all the time, “What about waivers for deeper leagues?”. Well, here you go. Brashard Smith is available in 92% of Yahoo leagues. If he’s not available in yours, you may just have really smart friends. I have been a fan of the Kansas City rookie since before the draft and loved the fit in this offense. A former WR turned RB for his final year of college, drafted to a Chiefs team that traded up to get him, and have very recent proof of being willing to start a Round 7 running back. He’s dynamic in the passing game and has the potential to be the most talented RB in this room.

For a seventh-round rookie, it's impressive that he was already playing in Week 1, albeit not much. Over the first three weeks, Smith had 21 snaps with three touches. Then in Week 4, that jumped to 19 snaps and seven touches. Stashing a rookie RB on a top offense with a path to more touches is smart, in my opinion. The Chiefs' coaching staff has talked of their desire to continue using him more. We’ll see if that trend continues this Sunday night.