NFL Playoff Picture 2025: Updated AFC and NFC standings, bracket, tiebreakers for Week 12
The Super Bowl champion Eagles' upset loss to the Cowboys on Sunday afternoon shook up the state of the NFC playoff race, among several results that affected both the AFC and NFC playoff scenarios. Here’s how the rest of the playoff picture looks after Week 12:
AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS 1. 1. Patriots (10-2) Lead the AFC East.
2. Broncos (9-2) Lead the AFC West.
3. Colts (8-3) Lead the AFC South, but Sunday's loss to the Chiefs hurts.
4. Ravens (6-5) Own the AFC North tiebreaker over the Steelers thanks to a better division record.
WILD CARDS
5. Chargers (7-4) Own the tiebreaker over the Jaguars and Bills based on a better AFC record.
6. Jaguars (7-4) Own the tiebreaker over the Bills based on a better AFC record.
7. Bills (7-4) Currently own the final AFC playoff spot.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Steelers (6-5) Have the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Texans and the conference record tiebreaker over the Chiefs.
9. Texans (6-5) Own the conference record tiebreaker over the Chiefs.
10. Chiefs (6-5) Got the win they needed against the Colts, but they still have work to do to get back into contention.
11. Dolphins (4-7) Best of the bad teams in the AFC
12. Bengals (3-8) Joe Burrow's injury didn't doom the season as much as an awful defense did.
13. Browns (3-8) Won with Shedeur Sanders' first start.
14. Raiders (2-9) An ugly loss to the Browns.
15. Jets (2-9) Tyrod Taylor is the new starter, but the result was the same.
16. Titans (1-10) Worst team in the NFL.
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS
1. Rams (9-2) The Super Bowl favorites.
2. Eagles (8-3) Defending champions suffered a bad loss in Dallas.
3. Bears (8-3) Still lead the NFC North.
4. Buccaneers (6-5) Still lead the NFC South.
WILD CARDS 5. Seahawks (8-3) First place in the wild card race.
6. Packers (7-3-1) Half a game behind the Bears.
7. 49ers (8-4) Win on Monday night kept them in wild card position.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN 8. Lions (7-4) Got a hard-fought win over the Giants.
9. Panthers (6-6) Loss on Monday night hurt, but they're only half a game behind in the NFC South.
10. Cowboys (5-5-1) Stayed alive with a win over the Eagles.
11. Falcons (4-7) Beat the Saints, but don't have much hope of catching up in the NFC South.
12. Vikings (4-7) Last place in the NFC North.
13. Cardinals (3-8) Lost a tough one to the Jaguars.
14. Commanders (3-8) Perhaps the NFL's most disappointing team.
Christian McCaffrey (right) was traded mid-season by the Carolina Panthers to the San Francisco 49ers in 2022 [Getty Images]
San Francisco 49ers registered back-to-back wins for the first time since September by overcoming the Carolina Panthers 20-9 on Monday.
Running back Christian McCaffrey ran for 89 yards and a touchdown against his former team as the 49ers, who are third in the NFC West, boosted their play-off hopes with victory in Santa Clara, California.
McCaffrey, 29, who also had 24 carries and caught seven passes for 53 yards, was traded from the Panthers to the 49ers in October 2022.
Starting 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy struggled in the first half as he was intercepted three times in the opening 21 minutes, which halted his side's early offensive progress.
Panthers' Bryce Young, who threw for a franchise-record 448 yards at Atlanta Falcons last week, finished 18-for-29 for 169 yards. The quarterback had one touchdown pass and threw two interceptions.
His team-mate Jaycee Horn, meanwhile, sustained a head injury during the second quarter after intercepting Purdy twice and missed the rest of the game.
The defeat for Carolina, who are pushing for top spot in the NFC South, sees them drop to second in the table behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
They face NFC West leaders Los Angeles Rams next, while San Francisco take on Cleveland Browns, who are bottom of the AFC North. Both games are on Sunday at 18:00 GMT.
As Eagles search for answers in wake of loss to Cowboys, they should start by reexamining how they're using Saquon Barkley
ARLINGTON, Texas — Saquon Barkley does not take the A.J. Brown approach to airing grievances.
The Philadelphia Eagles running back does not lament his opportunities in the way his star receiver does, and when Barkley does lament, he tends to direct all criticism squarely at himself.
So it could be easy to overlook the role of Philadelphia’s running game amid complaints from the Eagles' star wideout and criticism of their first-year offensive coordinator.
And yet, a look at the Eagles’ third loss on the season shows a trend. It’s one that might make Philadelphia wish Barkley was throwing more of a fit about his usage.
A year after Barkley led the league in rushing yards (2,005), rushing attempts (345), yards from scrimmage (2,283) and total touches (378), Barkley’s production has dipped significantly. He’s declined from 125.3 rushing yards per game to 62.2; from 21.6 attempts per game to 16.8. And while plenty around Eagles headquarters will argue that winning is more important than any specific contributor’s production, the correlation between the two is undeniable.
In each of the Eagles’ eight wins this season, Barkley has received at least 14 carries and at least 18 touches.
In each of their three losses, he’s received 12 or fewer carries and 17 or fewer touches.
Put another way: Barkley’s three games with the fewest opportunities occurred in the Eagles’ losses. The Eagles are not relying on Barkley enough.
Correlation does not always equal causation. NFL coaches love to say styles make fights, and some defenses will neutralize the run more effectively than others. But this correlation creates a data point the Eagles would be prudent to note. And it’s a data point that at least some in Philadelphia believe is not coincidental.
“Obviously I think the game plan is to probably take Saquon away and make it difficult for him,” Brown said after the Eagles’ 24-21 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. “So they mix in a lot of good looks, put guys in the box, pull guys out of the box and it's a number of things. I don't think it's just one thing, they just come in the game and take him away.
“Just, teams have been playing us different this year.”
The more that blueprint for thwarting Philadelphia works, the more opponents will repeat it.
As Eagles' run game wavers, Barkley ‘tired of the excuse’
Barkley was characteristically tough on himself after rushing for 22 yards on 10 carries vs. the Cowboys. He also chipped in 52 yards on seven catches, including some to manufacture a run game, but that didn’t reassure the second overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft.
“The run game didn’t get going and I always will own that and I just got to be better,” Barkley said from the postgame locker room. “I'm a big believer that the run game starts with me and ends with me so I'm in a little funk right now.
“I'm not getting yards and tired of the excuse of people trying to stop our running game. I don't really subscribe to that. Just got to be better.”
Ask coaches, teammates and Eagles staffers not named Saquon Barkley, and they’ll tell you that the problem is not only — or even necessarily primarily — Saquon Barkley.
An offensive line’s ability to create lanes for a back directly correlates to his success. A play-caller’s willingness to call runs and then call them again matters. Even the quarterback’s decision on whether to run or pass on option plays weighs in.
“We can't say that this is the ultimate team game when things are going [well], and then when they're not going good after a loss, it's on one person,” Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni said. “When it's not going as planned, [we don’t] assign blame to one person. It's always still all about the team.”
Left tackle Jordan Mailata, who was among the Eagles linemen that struggled to handle a Cowboys five-man front that some Eagles didn’t expect, agreed.
“It’s not on Saquon, it’s on all of us,” Mailata said. “You can just watch the film.
“It’s on all of us up front.”
In aggregate, the Eagles’ run blocking has not fallen off much since last year, per ESPN Stats and Info. The Eagles ranked ninth in run blocking across last season, with a 72% success rate, per ESPN. While ESPN had yet to include Week 12 data as of Monday evening, the Eagles’ first 11 weeks featured an identical 72% success rate — good for 10th in the league.
But a line can only block for runs that a play caller, quarterback and running back dial up.
“Make no mistake about it,” Sirianni said, “we want to get Saquon the ball as much as we can because we know good things happen.”
Saquon Barkley hasn't run free and clear this season for the Eagles. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Cooper Neill via Getty Images
Eagles need to let Barkley carry them vs. Bears and beyond
Two counterpoints could arrive to question the need to integrate Barkley.
The first: Is this a matter of Barkley’s opportunities or his production?
The second: Are losses only correlating with fewer Barkley touches because the Eagles aren’t running as much in the second half as they try to catch up rather than maintain a lead?
Neither bears out.
Because while Barkley’s fewest-opportunity games all correlate with the Eagles' losses, his lowest production games do not. Barkley’s 88 yards from scrimmage in the Eagles’ 21-17 loss to the Denver Broncos ranks fifth among his 11 outings. His worst outing from scrimmage, at 42 yards, came in a 28-22 win over the Minnesota Vikings.
And to the second concern: An analysis of Barkley’s first-half touches dispels the idea that the Eagles are only giving him second-half carries when they lead. When analyzing Barkley’s first-half touches only, his three fewest opportunities produced two losses.
So what explains the correlation?
The value of a run game in the NFL goes beyond its raw data and beyond its raw impact. A potent run game often wears down defenders more quickly than pass plays, the physicality hurting opponents later in the game when they more often run out of steam. And the more a team runs, the more it usually controls the clock and gives its defense more time to stay fresh.
As the Eagles saw against the Cowboys, an explosive pass game may spark a 21-point lead — but it also won’t prevent an unraveling to the tune of 24 unanswered points.
Sirianni said Monday that he and his colleagues were “searching for answers.” He also expressed confidence in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo when asked about Patullo’s job security.
“As coaches, we’re always looking for answers and we’re never into assigning blame,” Sirianni said. “What sometimes can happen is [assuming] ‘it’s just this.’ Well, it’s not ‘just that.’ It’s every piece of the puzzle: coaching, playing, execution, scheme, everything.
“We’ve got to be better in all of those aspects.”
Barkley touches and carries alone may not guarantee Eagles wins. Lessons from the Cowboys game also include the importance of ball security and discipline after two giveaways and a season-high 14 penalties.
But sticking with Barkley, even if he doesn’t start quickly, may be a necessary if not sufficient part of a winning recipe.
A Black Friday game against the Bears, who rank bottom-five in rushing yards allowed and bottom three in yards per carry allowed, will offer a great time to start.
“Anytime you're one-dimensional, that makes it tough,” Sirianni said. “So we got to identify what it is and try to get better from it.”