Week 6 NFL against-the-spread picks, predictions for every game: Jaguars get another tough test vs. Seattle
We see NFL teams make massive improvements every season, and the template is often the same: A new coach takes over for a staff that was overwhelmed or going through the motions, and suddenly gets the most out of the talent on hand. Then that coach often wins NFL Coach of the Year.
That seems to be what we're seeing with the Jacksonville Jaguars. They're 4-1 and got a signature win on Monday night, coming back in the final two minutes to knock off the Kansas City Chiefs. Trevor Lawrence has a win in the playoffs, the huge comeback over the Chargers in the wild-card round four seasons ago, so Monday probably wasn't the biggest win of his career. But it seemed like a turning point for the franchise. Rookie coach Liam Coen is doing a fantastic job.
Momentum in the NFL is a week to week proposition however, and the Jaguars don't get a break in Week 6. They host the Seattle Seahawks, who are 3-2 and better than their record. They've let two games slip away in the final two minutes this season. Seattle's defense has improved in Mike Macdonald's second season, and Sam Darnold might be playing even better than he did last season in Minnesota. His passer rating this season is 114.8, up from 102.5 last season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone from being a very good receiver to a true star. There's a lot to like about Seattle.
This is a tough test for both teams. Seattle is much better than a .500 team, but that's what they'll be if they lose Sunday. The Jaguars can't assume that the Colts will slow down anytime soon (Indianapolis' upcoming schedule is so soft that an 8-2 or 9-1 start seems inevitable), making every game an important one. This is a good matchup in a week that doesn't have a ton of them.
The Jaguars aren't getting much respect in the betting market for this game. They're just a 1-point favorite at home. Or maybe that's a sign that oddsmakers are buying this Seattle team. Even though the Jaguars are 4-1 and at home, the slight underdog might be the right side. The Seahawks have been good this season. They'll have a little more urgency coming off a loss. The pick is Seattle, though a Jacksonville win would teach us a lot about a surging Jaguars team.
Here are the against the spread picks for Week 6 in the NFL, with odds from BetMGM:
Giants (+7.5) over Eagles
It's possible that the Eagles, finally made uncomfortable by losing one of those games in which they disappear for a quarter or two, are angry and take it out on the Giants. But it's a prime time game between division rivals, and the Giants will be up for it. And as we started to see last week, no big NFL favorite is a sure thing.
Jets (+7.5) over Broncos
It's hard to take the Jets. They look awful. But if you want to pick NFL games, you better be willing to take some bad underdogs. London games are always a little weird, the Broncos went to London right after beating the Eagles which makes for a long trip, and maybe there's some letdown after that enormous win. The Jets have to play a decent game at some point, right?
Steelers (-5.5) over Browns
The record for teams who don't take the bye after a London trip isn't that bad. Teams in that spot are 11-6 straight up and 9-8 against the spread, according to PoolGenius. There's another layer for this game though: The Steelers have extra rest coming off the bye. It's a first in NFL history.
The Cleveland Browns are the first team in NFL history to play in an international game and the next week face an opponent fresh off its bye (h/t @FiddlesPicks).
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) October 9, 2025
Week 5: Browns in London, Steelers on BYE
Week 6: Browns +5.5 at Steelers
The Browns defense is elite and could keep them in the game, and rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel looked good in his first start. Still, taking a 3-1 team coming off a bye over a 1-4 team that played in London last week seems obvious.
Colts (-7) over Cardinals
A team that lost like the Cardinals did last week usually will want to bounce back strong. But are the Cardinals any good? There's no proof they are. Meanwhile, the Colts are 4-1 and probably should be 5-0. I don't know that I trust the Colts long term, but I definitely don't trust Arizona.
Dolphins (+4.5) over Chargers
The Chargers aren't the same team we saw at the beginning of the season. Injuries have made their offensive line a big liability, and their top two running backs being out could make them one dimensional. The Dolphins aren't very good, but this version of the Chargers might not be able to take advantage of that.
Patriots (-3.5) over Saints
There could be some letdown for the Patriots after a big win over the Bills. But maybe some letdown for the Saints too? Getting that first win out of the way had to be a big deal. This is a big test for the Patriots, who were bad very early in the season and much better lately. If New England is legit, they'll win this game with little issue.
Cowboys (-3) over Panthers
The Panthers won last week but there were still reasons to worry. The offense looked bad in the first half. The defense still isn't great. The Cowboys have their issues, but at least their defense looked better last week (it was against the Jets, so maybe that shouldn't count). The one bankable thing in this game is Dak Prescott. He is playing at an elite level. He should have another huge game against Carolina.
Rams (-7.5) over Ravens
While taking hideous home underdogs is necessary, some dogs are just too homely. The Ravens look like they can't compete with their injuries and defensive deficiencies. The Rams have had extra days to rest and get angry about a bad loss to the 49ers last week. This won't be pretty.
Titans (+4.5) over Raiders
This isn't exactly the best slate of NFL games for Week 6, is it? These are two bad teams. The Titans were atrocious before the fourth quarter last week, and two very fluky plays gave them a shot at the win. However, I can't take the Raiders laying 4.5 points against anyone right now.
Bengals (+14) over Packers
Joe Flacco isn't going to save the Bengals' season. But could the team rally for one week around a new quarterback? Maybe. Flacco came to the Browns in midseason two years ago and had a good stretch of play. That won't happen again, but maybe for one week Cincinnati won't look like a bad MAC team.
Buccaneers (-3) over 49ers
The Buccaneers haven't won a game by more than three points all season. Why now? Because for as good as the 49ers' start as been, the one worry is their defense without Nick Bosa. Matthew Stafford threw for 389 yards against them last week. The Buccaneers offense is very good with Baker Mayfield starting to make a case for MVP. One of these teams will be 5-1 and feeling very good.
Chiefs (-2.5) over Lions
The line is moving toward the Chiefs, likely because the Lions secondary is in shambles. Cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed are set to miss time due to injuries. The Chiefs might have lost on Monday night, but Patrick Mahomes was fantastic. The combination of the Lions' injuries and the Chiefs' desperation lead to a pick for Kansas City.
Falcons (+4.5) over Bills
Rest disadvantage is a thing, and it will come up on both Monday night games. The Falcons had a full week off for the bye, while the Bills had a tough Sunday night game against New England. There are a lot of big spreads this week, and a lot of underdog picks this week. Here's hoping for a week of chaos.
Bears (+4.5) over Commanders
There are eight games this week in which one team has more rest than the other. It seems like the NFL could have planned that better. A rest disadvantage is not the only factor in the NFL, but it is an edge when a team has more days off to rest and game plan. This is a big game for the Bears, and they surely remember what happened when they faced Washington last season and want to atone for that.
Last week: 9-5
Season to date: 39-37-2