Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders will make his NFL debut as a starting QB on Sunday at the Las Vegas Raiders after going 4-for-16 for 47 passing yards and an interception in the second half of a 27-20 loss to the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday.
Sanders will be the 18th different starting QB to make a debut for the Browns since 1999 (when the franchise moved back to Cleveland) — and the previous 17 have all lost.
Will Sunday's game in Las Vegas have a different outcome for Sanders and the Browns?
Cleveland opened as a 3-point road underdog against the Raiders at BetMGM, and the line moved to Vegas -4 after rookie QB Dillon Gabriel was ruled out and Sanders was named the starter. The majority of wagers at multiple sportsbooks are on the Browns to cover. The game total, which opened at 37.5, is down to 36.
Sanders' passing yardage prop is currently 163.5 yards at BetMGM, the lowest among Week 12 NFL starting QBs, and the lowest for any starting QB this season outside of the New York Jets' Justin Fields. It has risen a few yards from its opener of 159.5 a few days ago.
Yahoo Sports asked multiple oddsmakers, all of whom agreed that Sanders currently ranks 32nd among NFL starting QBs. With a full week of starting reps for the first time in his career, all eyes will be on how Sanders looks against a a Raiders defense that ranks 14th in DVOA, 17th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed.
"He hasn’t shown anything that would put him above the 32nd-ranked QB," Joey Feazel, head NFL trader at Caesars Sportsbook, said. "I don’t think Dillon Gabriel is that good, and it took Gabriel getting a concussion to put Sanders in."
Put another way, multiple oddsmakers agreed that current Minnesota Vikings starting QB J.J. McCarthy would be worth 2.5-3 more points against the spread than Sanders.
"The bottom line is he needs to demonstrate that he’s a competent NFL backup, not a starter," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told Yahoo Sports. "If he can show that, it’s a huge leap forward in one week. I have no great expectations for him. Against the Raiders defense, it’s not like he’s going up against one of the juggernauts of the league."
Another veteran oddsmaker was a little more pessimistic, noting he was "expecting 10 or less points" from Sanders in his Browns debut.
Either way, there's far more interest in a 2-8 Browns team facing a 2-8 Raiders team than there was a week ago. What happens in Vegas will reverberate across the NFL.