Through 10 weeks of the 2025 NFL season, two coaches have already been relieved of their headsets. There will be more.
It's an occupational hazard. As Hyman Roth said, "This is the business we've chosen." With the big salary and the significant title comes the very real risk of an inevitable pink slip.
That's why it's not just fair, but necessary, to explore the question of where the changes will come when the coaching carousel begins to whirl, only seven weeks from today.
Yes, Black Monday has become (for plenty of coaches) Black Sunday, with some owners not delaying implementation of a predetermined decision until the next morning. Other owners have opted not to wait until the end of the season. If the choice for change has been made, waiting to make it official prevents the team from officially beginning the process of searching for the right coach moving forward.
The Titans and Giants have gotten a head start. They can interview candidates not currently employed by other NFL teams, doing their due diligence before commencing the breakneck process of requesting permission to speak to assistant coaches with other teams — or to consider head coaches who are fired on Black Sunday/Monday by other teams.
Here are the spots that currently should be monitored, with the balance of the season strongly influencing the question of whether a given team will make the move to move on.
Dolphins: With G.M. Chris Grier gone, the question of whether coach Mike McDaniel will stay hovers over everything the team does. Whether and to what extent the Dolphins can win enough games down the stretch will make it easier to give McDaniel and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa another year, especially since the Dolphins owe Tua $54 million fully guaranteed in 2026. But the next G.M. may want to hire a new coach, sooner or later.
Jets: Will Aaron Glenn be one and done? That's the question as the season continues. And he has done himself few favors in his handling of the media. Which is one of the most important functions for any head coach, especially in New York.
Bills: The prime of quarterback Josh Allen is being squandered. It's unclear whether it's an issue of coaching (which points to Sean McDermott) or talent (which points to G.M. Brandon Beane). The overriding question is whether owner Terry Pegula is content to continue to run it back, year after year. If the Bills don't win the division, and if they make a quick exit from the playoffs, the making of changes will become Pegula's prerogative. Nothing can be ruled out, at this point.
Steelers: Many believe the Steelers will never fire Tomlin, if only to continue their unique three-coaches-since-1969 hairdo. But if they don't make the playoffs in 2025 after the very uncharacteristic moves made to upgrade the roster, the winds of change could start blowing through the confluence. It could make Tomlin think about walking away. It also could make owner Art Rooney II inclined to listen to other teams that may want to swing a de facto trade for a coach who has still never had a losing season.
Bengals: Someone, in theory, bears accountability for the complete disintegration of the defense. One big factor will relate to whether Zac Taylor is owed any money in 2026. Owner Mike Brown does not like to pay coaches to not work for the Bengals.
Ravens: The turnaround is underway. Regardless of how it turns out, there have been scattered times over the past 15 years when it has felt like a renewal of vows was needed, in both directions. Will the Ravens decide a fresh start is needed? Will John Harbaugh become attracted to another job, possibly at Penn State or some other college?
Browns: Is G.M. Andrew Berry safe? Is coach Kevin Stefanski — a two-time coach of the year winner — safe? Chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta has already gone home to baseball, possibly because he sensed the door was about to hit him where the Splendid Splinter split him. Still, never overlook the influence of ownership. Every misguided personnel decision bears the fingerprints of Jimmy Haslam. He needs to be fair about that fact when assessing whether to do a full or partial housecleaning with the people who are far too often cleaning up his messes.
Raiders: A one-and-done (again) for Pete Carroll isn't out of the question. The team has struggled. Minority owner Tom Brady will have strong opinions about what needs to happen. At a minimum, it's hard to imagine Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly coexisting for another season.
Cowboys: Brian Schottenheimer has done better than many expected. Plus, like Mike Brown of the Bengals, owner Jerry Jones hates to pay coaches to not coach. Assuming Schottenheimer has more than one year of guaranteed pay, he's virtually guaranteed to be back.
Commanders: Dan Quinn likely isn't on the hot seat this year, but the season has become a full-blown disaster. Four straight losses by 20 or more points. If it continues like that, he'll at a minimum be under close scrutiny in 2026.
Packers: Matt LaFleur already has been asked whether he's coaching for his job. And for good reason. New team president Ed Policy has said that neither LaFleur nor G.M. Brian Gutekunst will get extensions until after the season. And with both signed through 2026, Policy also has made it clear he's not a fan of lame-duck arrangements. If the Packers don't make the playoffs, things could get interesting.
Falcons: The team is way too inconsistent, and the strange Kirk Cousins/Michael Penix decision from 2024 hovers. With $90 million spent on a quarterback who isn't playing, and the quarterback who is playing not fully living up to his top-10 draft pedigree, both coach Raheem Morris and G.M. Terry Fontenot may need wins down the stretch to secure another season.
Saints: It's highly unlikely that Kellen Moore will be gone after one year. Owner Gayle Benson has made it clear that G.M. Mickey Loomis is going nowhere, and Loomis seems to realize that Moore hasn't been dealt an ideal roster hand, for now.
Panthers: They've improved. Changes, for now, don't seem to be in the offing. But owner David Tepper is sufficiently tempestuous to keep Carolina perpetually on the radar screen for potential change.
Cardinals: The best argument for coach Jonathan Gannon and G.M. Monti Ossenfort is that they've yet to have a chance to get a quarterback of their own. Whether that saves the day hinges on whether showings like last weekend's no-show in Seattle can be avoided.
Again, these are the spots we're watching, for now. And a broad net was needed. Because history tells us that, between now and Week 18, some of the teams listed above will lose just enough games to make big changes a very real possibility.
