Sports

NFL Week 12 picks: Chiefs defeat Colts; Rams prevail over Bucs

Sam Farmer NFL picks
 (Tim Hubbard / Los Angeles Times)

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 12 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 12-3 (.800) record. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, he is 109-55 (.665).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 11 would have been 9-6 (.600). For the season, his record against the spread is 84-80 (.512).

All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts in the Los Angeles area. The Broncos, Chargers, Commanders and Dolphins are off this week.

Bills (7-3) at Texans (5-5)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen passes against the Kansas City Chiefs on Nov. 2.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen passes against the Kansas City Chiefs on Nov. 2. (Adrian Kraus / Associated Press)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m. TV: Amazon Prime.

Line: Bills by 5½. O/U: 43½.

The Bills have huge confidence in Josh Allen and rightfully so. Houston’s defense is solid, but the offense is sputtering and the line continues to leak under pressure. Buffalo should be able to run it enough to control tempo.

Pick: Bills 21, Texans 17

Colts (8-2) at Chiefs (5-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: CBS.

Line: Chiefs by 3½. O/U: 49½.

The Colts come off a bye with a strong run game and physicality that travels, but the Chiefs are in a backs-against-the-wall moment at home. Patrick Mahomes tends to deliver in a desperate situation.

Pick: Chiefs 23, Colts 20

Steelers (6-4) at Bears (7-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Bears by 2½. O/U: 44½.

Chicago has become the most consistent team in the NFC North, winning seven of eight behind takeaways and a resurgent ground attack. With Aaron Rodgers unlikely to go and the Steelers struggling against run-heavy, play-action teams, this feels like another Bears win.

Pick: Bears 28, Steelers 20

Vikings (4-6) at Packers (6-3-1)

Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy looks to pass against the Chicago Bears on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy looks to pass against the Chicago Bears on Sunday. (Abbie Parr / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Fox.

Line: Packers by 6½. O/U: 41½.

The Vikings remain wildly inconsistent with J.J. McCarthy, and the run game hasn’t materialized. Even without Josh Jacobs on offense, Green Bay can rely on its defense, collapse the pocket and force mistakes.

Pick: Packers 24, Vikings 20

Patriots (9-2) at Bengals (3-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Patriots by 7½. O/U: 49½.

The Patriots’ offense looks sharp, and their run defense should handle a Joe Mixon-less Bengals team. With Ja’Marr Chase out and Tee Higgins likely double-teamed, Cincinnati’s offense just doesn’t have enough juice.

Pick: Patriots 34, Bengals 14

Giants (2-9) at Lions (6-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Lions by 10½. O/U: 49½.

The Lions should rebound after a frustrating loss. Jaxson Dart’s possible return offers a lift, but Detroit has too much offensive firepower and is tough at home. The Giants play hard but can’t match points.

Pick: Lions 28, Giants 17

Seahawks (7-3) at Titans (1-9)

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold looks to pass against the Rams on Nov. 16.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold looks to pass against the Rams on Nov. 16. (Gregory Bull / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Seahawks by 13½. O/U: 40½.

Sam Darnold showed toughness last week and the Seattle defense is rounding into form. Tennessee continues to fight but is down weapons and too reliant on a rookie quarterback. Seattle smothers them.

Pick: Seahawks 30, Titans 13

Jets (2-8) at Ravens (5-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Ravens by 13½. O/U: 44½.

The Jets turn to Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, which could give them a short-term spark. But the Ravens showed a steel spine in last week’s comeback. Baltimore still has the superior roster, run game, and coaching stability.

Pick: Ravens 28, Jets 17

Jaguars (6-4) at Cardinals (3-7)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Jaguars by 2½. O/U: 47½.

The Jaguars are healthier and trending upward. Arizona keeps fighting but is severely undermanned, and shouldn’t rush Marvin Harrison Jr. back from an appendectomy. Jacksonville is steadier on both sides.

Pick: Jaguars 27, Cardinals 21

Browns (2-8) at Raiders (2-8)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Raiders by 3½. O/U: 36½.

Shedeur Sanders is due to make his first NFL start, and that won’t be easy. The Raiders are getting healthier, Brock Bowers adds explosiveness and Maxx Crosby is back to form. Raiders showed some flashes Monday night.

Pick: Raiders 24, Browns 17

Eagles (8-2) at Cowboys (4-5-1)

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts passes against the Detroit Lions on Nov. 16.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts passes against the Detroit Lions on Nov. 16. (Terrance Williams / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Fox.

Line: Eagles by 3½. O/U: 47½.

Dallas can score, and its defense is better with Quinnen Williams. The Eagles’ defense is suffocating and looks like a classic Vic Fangio unit across all three levels. Philadelphia’s offense should take a step forward and control the game late.

Pick: Eagles 28, Cowboys 23

Falcons (3-7) at Saints (2-8)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Saints by 1½. O/U: 39½.

With Kirk Cousins at quarterback and no Drake London, Atlanta is scraping by. Five losses in a row. The Saints aren’t good, but they’re slightly more stable and less turnover-prone.

Pick: Saints 27, Falcons 23

Buccaneers (6-4) at Rams (8-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: NBC, Peacock.

Line: Rams by 6½. O/U: 49½.

The Rams are healthier and playing excellent complementary football. Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP pace. Tampa Bay lacks key weapons. Tough spot for the Buccaneers on the road and in prime time.

Pick: Rams 27, Buccaneers 21

Panthers (6-5) at 49ers (7-4)

Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: ESPN.

Line: 49ers by 7. O/U: 48½.

The Panthers are no pushovers at home, but the 49ers are getting bodies back and Brock Purdy is settling in again. Christian McCaffrey continues to look like an MVP candidate. Carolina keeps it close.

Pick: 49ers 27, Panthers 24

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

How Leadership—and Confidence—Bolstered the NFL

Today’s guest column is from professors John Cairney and Rick Burton.

The more football we watch this fall, the clearer something becomes. As amazing as this sounds, the NFL isn’t just back. It’s well into a new winning streak.

In the not-so-distant past, the NFL’s grip on the “America’s Game” title might’ve looked like it was loosening. The threats weren’t coming just from rival leagues or the loss of an occasional sponsor. The challenges were deeper and more structural.

The list included mounting concerns about player health and safety, particularly around concussions; controversies over player protests and social justice; off-field scandals; and creeping erosion of the public’s trust in the product and league office.

In some ways, it started with commissioner Roger Goodell. His approval rating had plummeted. Fans, players and even some owners openly wondered if he should step aside.

Fast forward to the 2025–26 season, and the contrast couldn’t be starker. In Week 1 the NFL headed to São Paulo, Brazil, underscoring global ambition intent on transforming rhetoric into reality. A record seven international games will be played this year across five countries—Brazil, England, Germany, Ireland and Spain—with Australia joining the slate in 2026.

The globe-hopping games no longer feel like novelties. They’re an embedded part of the NFL’s calendar. Additionally, in a frenzied media world, NFL viewership is surging. ESPN’s broadcast of the Texans–Chiefs matchup delivered 32.7 million viewers, the most watched NFL game in network history. The Chiefs-Bills game gave the league more of the same.

Sponsorship revenues are also at record levels—$2.49 billion league-wide in 2024—and the league’s franchises have never been more valuable. The Dallas Cowboys just eclipsed a net worth of $10 billion, and every single NFL team is valued at more than $5 billion. A decade ago, those figures would have seemed unlikely.

Put the above in context and one thing seems clear: The NFL never lost confidence in its brand, and we think there’s a leadership lesson in that.

Rosabeth Moss Kanter, in her book Confidence: How Winning Streaks and Losing Streaks Begin and End, describes how organizations rise or fall not simply on performance but on belief. Winning streaks are sustained because leaders project assurance and act decisively, reinforcing systems that produce results. Losing streaks spiral when doubt infects decision-making, eroding both morale and execution.

By that standard, the NFL of the mid- to late-2010s looked like an institution teetering on a losing streak. But instead of succumbing to doubt, it acted with confidence.

So how did the NFL reverse its fortunes? The answer lies in organizational conviction expressed through bold goals, direct confrontation with crises and strategic expansion.

When Goodell announced in 2010 he wanted the NFL to reach $25 billion in annual revenue by 2025, eyebrows arched because the league was bringing in in roughly $8 billion annually. The 3 times target seemed audacious, even reckless. But confidence is often revealed in ambition.

Rather than scaling back amid criticism in the late 2010s—including barbs during the Colin Kaepernick-inspired racism protests—the NFL pressed ahead. It secured mammoth broadcast contracts, embraced new primetime slots like Amazon Prime’s Thursday Night Football and invested heavily in digital streaming.

Revenues have since surged past $20 billion annually. The $25 billion mark remains unmet but within reach, and the trajectory reflects Kanter’s argument: Winning organizations reinforce belief by setting bold goals and aligning resources around them.

The most existential threat the NFL faced was not declining ratings but the possibility the public would reject the sport on health and ethical grounds. The concussion crisis and perception the league had mishandled them, looked dangerous.

Here, though, confidence meant acting rather than retreating. Goodell’s administration instituted concussion protocols, standardized treatment and return-to-play guidelines, and invested in medical research. The league settled a landmark lawsuit with former players (initially capped at $765 million but later uncapped to allow unlimited claims).

Critics argued the reforms came too late, but notably, the NFL didn’t allow doubt to paralyze it. Instead, it absorbed the blow, acknowledged the problem and began the long process of restoring trust. They confronted a crisis head on rather than denying or ducking it.

Kanter also notes confident organizations reinforce belief systems even when they come under fire. In the NFL’s case, they “protected the shield.” Their unified communications teams projected a positioning that the NFL was bigger than any single scandal, fallen star or institutional/team misstep. Heavy-handed or not, NFL leaders communicated the league, as an entity, remained in command of its own narrative.

Perhaps the most confident act of all was international expansion. Staging games in São Paulo, Madrid, Berlin, and soon Sydney was not risk-free. A poor showing abroad would have exposed football as parochial, a big sport without global reach.

Instead, the league acted as though the world wanted American-style football—and then worked to make that true. Today, international games are sellout events, broadcast widely (i.e., the recent Berlin game) and celebrated as milestones in the sport’s globalization. The strategy mirrors Kanter’s point: organizations on winning streaks expand their horizons, using momentum to create new opportunities rather than waiting for conditions to be perfect.

What ultimately explains the NFL’s revival is not just media contracts, safety protocols or global scheduling. It may be simpler. The NFL never allowed stakeholders to lose confidence. Even at the height of criticism—when protests dominated headlines, concussion lawsuits mounted, and the commissioner’s popularity cratered—the NFL projected resilience.

To be sure, the NFL can still seem thin-skinned. The leagues’ recent gripes with the NFLPA over the union’s annual report cards have been criticized for being defensively reactive and unnecessary.

Kanter’s research shows when organizations sustain confidence, they turn turbulence into momentum. The NFL is a textbook case. Instead of succumbing to doubt, it has acted decisively, reinforced belief in its brand and transformed challenges into pulled levers generating growth.

In the end, the NFL didn’t just survive the crisis years—it demonstrated organizational sure-footedness, paired with bold leadership, can turn deflation or doubt into continued, sustainable growth. Into a new winning streak.

John Cairney is head of the University of Queensland’s School of Human Movement and Nutrition Sciences. He also serves as deputy executive director for the Office of 2032 Games Engagement and directs Queensland’s Centre for Olympic and Paralympic Studies. Rick Burton is an honorary professor at the University of Queensland and the David B. Falk Emeritus Professor of Sport Management at Syracuse University. He is co-author (with Norm O’Reilly) of The Rise of Major League Soccer (Lyons Press). 

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How much are Browns to blame for 'rough' Sanders debut?

NFL 2025 season: Week 12

BBC coverage: Live text commentary of Sunday's games on the BBC Sport website and app (from 17:30 GMT). Also live radio commentary on BBC Radio 5 Sports Extra and BBC Sounds of Philadelphia Eagles v Dallas Cowboys (from 21:00 GMT).

Two minutes into the third quarter of Sunday's game in Cleveland, a roar went up around Huntington Bank Field.

Cleveland Browns fans noticed that Shedeur Sanders, arguably the most high-profile draft prospect in NFL history, was stepping on to the field for his long-awaited NFL debut.

Unbeknown to them, quarterback Dillon Gabriel was discovered to have a concussion during half-time and had not returned to the sideline.

So when the Browns had their first possession of the second half, it gave Sanders his first action in a regular-season game.

The 23-year-old rookie said himself that what followed was "rough", as the Baltimore Ravens fought back from 16-10 down to win 23-16.

Sanders' harshest critics have said it was the "worst debut ever", but was it really that bad? And had the Browns unintentionally set him up to fail?

Sanders' NFL journey so far

Sanders is used to being in the spotlight as his father is two-time Super Bowl winner Deion Sanders, who was also his son's head coach throughout his college career.

Shedeur earned about $6.5m (£4.9m) through name, image or likeness (NIL) deals in college, and his watch celebration was copied by players in the NFL, NBA and WNBA in 2023.

He was the initial favourite to be the first overall pick in this year's draft, but as NFL evaluators began to assess him, his draft stock fell.

Concerns were raised over his ability and attitude. One coach even said his team's chat with Sanders was "the worst formal interview I've ever been in".

Even so, he was still expected to be taken in the first round. When he was not selected till the fifth - Cleveland trading up to take him with the 144th overall pick - it ended the most dramatic draft slide in NFL history.

"He grew up with a celebrity upbringing and has a really devout fanbase," said ESPN's Cleveland Browns reporter Daniel Oyefusi.

"He was one of the biggest stars in the NFL as soon as he was drafted, but he didn't have the credentials to back it up to this point. So regardless of what he does, what he says, there's going to be a lot of attention, a lot of discussion, and he's just overall a very polarising player, for better or worse."

It was also surprising that it was Cleveland that put Sanders out of his misery. They had already drafted Gabriel and Sanders was the fourth quarterback they signed in the off-season.

Sanders was fourth on the Browns' depth chart but impressed in their first pre-season game, then began the campaign as their third-choice quarterback, and became back-up to Gabriel when veteran Joe Flacco was traded on 7 October.

How did Sanders' NFL debut go?

Sanders completed his first two passes but finished with four completions from 16 attempts for 47 yards.

He was sacked twice, threw one interception and his quarterback rating of 13.5 was the worst on debut since Brandon Weeden, a first-round pick by Cleveland in 2012.

Sanders did scramble for a first down and on his sixth and final possession, he made two passes to help get the Browns in position to win the game, but the drive ended with three straight incompletions.

As the fourth-choice quarterback, Sanders did not practice with the Browns' first-teamers during training camp, and he didn't have any snaps with them after becoming the back-up either.

"I mean, he looked like a back-up rookie quarterback that hadn't taken any reps with the starting offence," said Oyefusi.

"It wasn't the debut that he or his fans had hoped for. But you have to contextualise it. He's playing a really good Ravens defence, and the Browns' offensive line has struggled all year."

A quarterback's snap cadence is what they shout at the line of scrimmage, which tells their team-mates when they want the ball to be snapped to start the play.

Cleveland guard Wyatt Teller admitted after Sunday's game that the Browns' offensive linemen had to learn Sanders' cadence at half-time.

NFL analyst Phoebe Schecter added: "A 25% completion rate makes you feel bad about it, but I think there's a lot of hope for this young man.

"He hasn't had the opportunities to mesh or gel, so you can't put it all on him. I would actually point towards head coach Kevin Stefanski, who's been in charge of the reps and what his rookie experience has been like."

Have the Browns handled Sanders properly?

Although veteran back-ups might not take any first-team reps, rookies tend to be given some to help them make the transition to the NFL.

But with Gabriel also being a rookie, he took all Cleveland's first-team reps after becoming their starter.

"The Browns have viewed Sanders as more of a developmental prospect," said Oyefusi. "They are confident in their plan for him.

"They have 14 rookies this year and two rookie quarterbacks, so Kevin Stefanski altered the practices this summer. They divided the field into two, so all the rookies could get reps.

"Even during the season, they've had Sanders run a bunch of reps with developmental players, so even though he might not have been getting the reps with the starting unit, they do believe he's been getting a lot in other sessions and alternative ways. But he still needs to get on the same page as those starting guys."

Sanders' "rough day" continued when he discovered his home had been burgled during his NFL debut, with approximately $200,000 (£153,000) in property being stolen.

But he has since been preparing for his first start, Sunday's trip to a Las Vegas Raiders team which also has a 2-8 record.

"He's a young man who just wants to play football," Schecter added. "You could sense that in his voice in the video [above].

"He'll get a full week of practice - throwing to the 'ones', working out who's going to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage.

"This is going to really help him and start to build his confidence. The Browns have a great defence so they have every opportunity to be successful this weekend."

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