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Week 11 was a sleeper win for most of us, as Michael Wilson came through as an obvious selection. The rest of our page was underwhelming, although Tyler Allgeier stole another touchdown and Luther Burden III did see a season high in targets.

We’re onto Week 12.

WR Andre Iosivas vs. Patriots (10%)

He’ll see more opportunity with Ja’Marr Chase (suspension) unavailable, and perhaps the Bengals will also have Joe Burrow on Sunday. But even if it’s the Joe Flacco show again, note that the Patriots are weaker against the pass — and Cincinnati will likely be playing from behind.

QB Bryce Young at 49ers (18%)

You’ll need to monitor the practice reports, with Young nursing an ankle injury in advance of the Monday game at San Francisco. But he’s coming off a surprising 448-yard explosion at Atlanta, and the Niners are missing several key players on defense. Young rarely offers a fantasy floor, but this week is a rare exception.

RB Devin Singletary at Lions (24%)

The Detroit front seven has been stingy most of the year, but Singletary is coming off a two-touchdown week and he has 40 touches over three games. The New York backfield is obviously a two-man platoon, giving Singletary a surprising floor.

TE Mason Taylor at Ravens (22%)

The New York passing game has a better chance at survival now that Tyrod Taylor is starting, and Taylor is the most reliable target who’s currently healthy. Those with receiver problems in deeper pools might also consider John Metchie III or Adonai Mitchell.

WR Tyquan Thornton vs. Colts (2%)

The Kansas City passing game is struggling for splash plays, but here is Thornton, hiding in plain sight (24.8 YPC). He had a 61-yard grab in the loss to Denver, and he also popped for a 39-yard catch in the win over the Raiders. With Xavier Worthy struggling and also dinged up (ankle), it’s possible Thornton is ready for an opportunity bump. Thornton is more of a proactive stash than Week 12 starter, but he’s a great target for deeper leagues.

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders vs. Browns (26%)

This unit has only made it to double-digits three times this year, but after watching Shedeur Sanders struggle in his extensive playing time last week, we can’t ignore the upside here. Sanders should improve after a week of preparation, but he’s always struggled with pocket decisions, dating back to his Colorado days.

Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through 10 storylines that will define the week. After 11 weeks, how will the trends of fantasy football define Week 12?​

Tee Higgins without Ja’Marr Chase

Jalen Ramsey boosted Tee Higgins fantasy value for Week 12. After Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension, Higgins will play his first game without him since 2023. Since Chase was drafted, Higgins has played six games without his co-star, averaging 16.9 half-PPR fantasy PPG. In general, Higgins has a 35% increase in yards per route when Chase is on the sideline for any reason. With Joe Flacco already leading Higgins to 15.9 PPG this season (which would be the WR5), he becomes an easy start even with a difficult matchup.

Cincinnati hosts New England Sunday afternoon, as Christian Gonzalez will be assigned to the Bengals' star WR. So far, Gonzalez is allowing a sub-20% target share and one of the best fantasy points per route allowed this season. Drake London, in a nearly identical role and spot to Higgins, had a huge day against New England a few weeks ago. Although Higgins won’t be used as much in the slot to avoid Gonzalez, his contested catch ability can show up big on Sunday. The separation may not be as perfect, but I’d expect Flacco to consistently target Higgins even in tight coverage, giving him plenty of opportunities to show off his unique skill set.

Ashton Jeanty vs. Browns with injured OL

The Raiders offensive line has been a travesty to start the season and has only gotten worse with injuries. Without Jackson Powers-Johnson in Week 11, Ashton Jeanty finished the game with -4 yards before contact on six carries. This is the fifth straight game without topping four yards per carry as the talented rookie has been bottled up in the Raiders' poor run game. Using Expected Fantasy PPG, Jeanty is 11th in RB volume, but is only one of two running backs scoring below their expected of the top-12 RBs alongside Chase Brown. The Bengals RB has been above his expected level as of late, as Jeanty continues going downhill.​

The volume recently has been coming from the passing game. Since the bye, Jeanty has ran an incredible 87% of the Raiders RB routes after just 61% prior. In those three games, his receiving fantasy points are nearly double his rushing points. If he can’t get it done versus Dallas, the remaining schedule doesn’t give much confidence. Cleveland’s run defense is No. 1 in yards before contact and has allowed one rushing touchdown to running backs over the last five games. After Sunday, it doesn’t get much better, facing the Chargers, Broncos, Eagles and Texans in December. 

Emanuel Wilson vs. Vikings if Josh Jacobs is out

Emanuel Wilson’s rushing efficiency has been nearly identical to Josh Jacobs this season. He has benefited from not taking on bellcow volume, but has shown plenty of promise as an UDFA for the Packers' coaches. After having 12 of the 13 RB touches without Jacobs last week, the volume can carry him either way. Jacobs failed to reach 12 fantasy points in each game versus Minnesota last season, but the Vikings defense allowed at least 25 points to the Packers in both games.

So far this season, the Vikings defense versus RBs adjusted to the schedule is fifth-best. However, that primarily comes from good receiving defense as they rank 20th versus rushing production to RBs. They have allowed a rushing TD to RBs in four straight games, setting Wilson up well if he were to replace Jacobs' goal-line volume. It may not be 1-to-1, but Jacobs averages the most goal-line rushes per game this season. Wilson is a start for most teams and can provide relief for those struggling at the RB position.

Brock Purdy losing production on the ground

With Brock Purdy’s toe injury, there has been one major difference in his fantasy production. Rushing upside. In his three games this season, it’s been non-existent after quietly being a huge part of his production in 2024. Last season, Purdy averaged 4.2 rushing fantasy PPG on 4.4 attempts per game. His top-10 rushing production from 2024 has been limited to just 23 yards on six carries (that are not kneels).

After zero scrambles in his first game back last week, it lowers him in my rankings as he’s losing most of the rushing that provided 23.3% of his points last year. The Panthers have been better than average against fantasy QBs this season and are allowing the second-fewest yards per carry to the position. Although he’s had 18+ fantasy points in all three starts this year, Purdy’s ceiling will be lower, with nearly 100% of his production coming through the air.

Rhamondre Stevenson’s return

Will Rhamondre Stevenson’s return ruin the TreVeyon Henderson party? Partially, but hopefully not fully. Henderson’s path to the RB1 role in New England has been far from easy, making me think carefully before cementing Henderson as a fantasy RB1. The main area I’m worried about is the red-zone usage. Mike Vrabel has consistently talked up Stevenson as a big contributor to the team, especially when speaking of his role in the red area. Prior to Stevenson’s injury, Henderson had one goal-line carry and only 23% of the red-zone touches.

In the rookie running back’s three starts, his RB volume rank has been 10th-best, with the fourth-most PPG over the stretch. He also had the fourth-most red-zone fantasy points with 24.3. If, say, he only scored 23% of the red-zone fantasy points instead of the majority, it would drop his average fantasy points by over five per game. I expect Henderson to get over 50% of the RB volume now, but the difference between being another fantasy RB2 and a top-10 fantasy asset will come down to how much Stevenson’s role is in the most valuable part of the field. Either way, Henderson is an easy start this week versus Cincinnati, which ranks 32nd in fantasy rushing and receiving points allowed to the position.

Shedeur Sanders making first career NFL start

In Shedeur Sanders’ 28 offensive snaps last week after taking over for the injured Dillon Gabriel, the Browns offensive players scored a grand total of 9.5 fantasy points. Not the most ideal, but there’s still hope for better. With Sanders getting the first team reps in practice and a week to prepare, there’s a shot he can provide enough value for Cleveland’s top fantasy assets against this Las Vegas defense. Harold Fannin Jr. could be a top target as a short-area YAC TE, and Quinshon Judkins just needs the offense to move down the field to be effective.

Judkins has not scored more than 10 fantasy points in three straight games. It hasn’t been the greatest situation for Judkins, but a quarterback change can spark hope into a lifeless offense. The Browns are eighth in pass rate this season, so with Sanders coming in, the hope is that tendency flips. In Gabriel’s first start, Judkins had 23 carries for 110 yards . The Browns defense has the ability to keep this game close, making Judkins the player I’d have some confidence in for Week 12.

George Pickens' rematch with Philly

In Week 1 of the 2025 season, George Pickens had 4.5 fantasy points on four targets. Ever since that game, Pickens has been the WR2 in PPG as one of the biggest draft steals and one of the best trade values of the NFL offseason. Will the rematch be more like the first matchup or the rest of the season?

Two main reasons the new Cowboys WR struggled in Week 1: the first was just that, he was new; the second was Quinyon Mitchell. Over the first three games, Pickens' targets per route were just 17%, but he has since jumped to 25% as his chemistry with Dak Prescott has grown. The Eagles slowed him down by having Mitchell follow Pickens snap-to-snap while they attempted to bracket CeeDee Lamb on the other side, leading to Lamb having 13 targets. I would expect Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to do the same in Week 12, but it won’t fully scare me off of Pickens. Lamb is set up great versus Adoree Jackson, who has been targeted the fourth-most on a per-route basis among NFL CBs, but Mitchell’s targets per route allowed is surprisingly the 13th-highest among cornerbacks. I trust the growing chemistry is enough to give Pickens opportunities in a tough matchup. The two Dallas WRs have the exact same number of targets over the past three games, and I would expect both to have another high-volume day in Dallas.

Joe Burrow returning soon?

It may not be this week, but it appears QB Joe Burrow will be back soon. The Bengals are down to a 4% chance to make the playoffs, but if Burrow stays on the field, he can stay in your fantasy lineup. Last season, Burrow averaged 22.5 fantasy PPG (QB3) with a big shoutout to his weapons and defense. Chase is still there, Higgins is there and the defense that allowed 25.5 points per game last season is now allowing a historically-high 33.4 per game. It led Joe Flacco to average a staggering 42.6 passing attempts per game, nearly five attempts more on average than Burrow’s 2024 season.

If a 40-year-old Flacco’s PPG shot up to 21.2 with Cincinnati after averaging 6.5 in Cleveland, just imagine the ceiling for Burrow. The main issue comes with being overprotective and cautious with their franchise quarterback. Do they sit him in the fantasy playoffs when you need him most? Only time will tell, but until then, Burrow can be a high-value start in each game he plays.

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Breece Hall with Tyrod Taylor

Changes needed to be made in New York, and they were. Breece Hall managers have some hope with Tyrod Taylor being announced as the starter. In Taylor’s one start earlier this season, Hall didn’t have the greatest day on the ground, but tied his season high with six targets. The receiving is where Hall’s upside lies, and Taylor can bring it out as New York goes from 31st in pass rate to first when Justin Fields is on the sideline. The Ravens defense has been improving, but the Jets entering as two touchdown underdogs favors Hall’s receiving volume.

Emeka Egbuka back at the mean

After wildly overproducing his volume to begin the year, Egbuka has now done a 180 as of late. His expected fantasy PPG of 15.6 this season is now exactly equal to his production of 15.6 PPG. Although he had some luck on his side early, I believe the rest of his season can look closer to his start than his most recent games. Egbuka is a very skilled receiver in a great situation. Baker Mayfield’s production has dropped from last year, going from 265 passing YPG to 236, but the volume for Egbuka has been incredible with so many weapons still injured.

Since Week 7, Egbuka’s 10.8 targets per game and six end-zone targets are both inside the top five for fantasy WRs. Those six end-zone targets have equaled zero touchdowns, which will eventually turn back around. If he keeps getting nine or more targets every game, the numbers will improve alongside it, too. The rookie WR gets the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football this week, a team that is below average versus WRs this season, compared to the fantasy schedule.