Sports

Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through 8 storylines that will define the week. After ten weeks of play, how will the trends of fantasy football define Week 11?

RJ Harvey’s Chance is Here

In August, RJ Harvey was drafted as a low-end RB2 in fantasy because of his talent level in a great situation. It’s now November, both have become generally true, and yet he’s been a bust. That can change with an injured J.K. Dobbins. Harvey’s fantasy RB volume currently ranks 45th. If we were to give him a generous 75% of Dobbins' workload, that volume would shoot up to RB8.

Harvey’s role has made him more of an afterthought. He’s touched the ball on only 33% of his snaps, a very low amount, as his main role has been in the passing game. When he does have the opportunity, he performs. He is the only player with a higher fantasy points per touch than Jonathan Taylor and still ranks 18th in fantasy points per carry, 0.01 fantasy points per carry higher than Dobbins. 

With a good receiving situation and a great offensive line, Harvey has the opportunity to be a top fantasy RB if he can get elite volume. He may need elite volume because of his matchups. Not only is Kansas City fifth-best in rushing fantasy points allowed, but the fantasy playoff schedule is rough as well. He’s set up well in Weeks 13 and 14 to make the fantasy playoffs, but the matchups limit his RB1 upside once it gets time for the key games of the year.

Ricky Pearsall’s Long-Awaited Return

Three weeks into the season, Ricky Pearsall was 13th among WRs in targets and fantasy points. A knee injury has derailed what could have been a breakout season, but Pearsall aims to come back when it matters most. In his five games before injury, the San Francisco WR took advantage of Shanahan’s fantasy-friendly offense, averaging just under 100 receiving yards per game. With no WR stepping up as a clear No. 1, Pearsall has a major opportunity in an offense known for supporting two fantasy WRs. Even without top talents available, the Shanahan offense is fifth in half-PPR receiving fantasy PPG this season.

The last healthy game Pearsall played was his Week 11 matchup vs. the Arizona Cardinals. In Week 3, Pearsall posted eight receptions and 117 yards on a career-high 11 targets. He also went up against the Cardinals' secondary in his final game of 2024 with 16 fantasy points. There’s risk coming off the knee injury as we’ve seen with Jets WR Garrett Wilson already this season, but the ceiling for Pearsall going forward is what’s most enticing.

Jaylen Waddle vs. Washington’s Banged-Up Secondary

Jaylen Waddle may have the best matchup of the week for fantasy WRs. The Washington secondary ranks 32nd in EPA/dropback this season, 32nd in explosive pass plays allowed and has now lost its top two corners. Their yards per attempt is 9% worse than the 31st-ranked Dallas Cowboys defense that everyone attacks weekly. With no Trey Amos and Marshon Lattimore, the hope is dwindling. It can take only one play for Waddle against this defense, but I think he’ll have plenty more opportunities.

The Dolphins consistently keep games close, and are projected to be in a close one again versus the Commanders in Spain. If the Miami passing attack has enough volume, Waddle’s ceiling is the best of the week. Ever since the Tyreek Hill injury, Waddle is third among WRs in yards per route, with a path to climb to second this week (he has no hope in catching Jaxon Smith-Njigba).

Steelers' Pass Catchers vs. Bengals

Pittsburgh receivers haven’t brought much to the fantasy table this season. However, it’s usually a buffet for anybody playing Cincinnati. Calvin Austin III didn’t get his shot versus the Bengals in Week 7, but Pat Freiermuth scored 25 fantasy points with Aaron Rodgers having 23 himself. The Cincinnati defense ranks 32nd versus fantasy TEs (for nearly the entire year) and 25th versus slot WRs, setting Austin up well after a season-high seven targets last Sunday.

The key factor that makes Austin and Freiermuth nice flyers in Week 11 is CB DJ Turner, who is once again projected to follow DK Metcalf snap-to-snap. In their first meeting, Metcalf opened the game with a 39-yard catch and was then held to two receptions for 11 yards the rest of the way. The combination of a good corner and lack of skill elsewhere has pushed targets to other receivers versus this secondary, such as Bears wideout Rome Odunze, who had 0 fantasy points vs. Cincy in a very similar spot. The Bengals defense allows plenty of points and big plays, making Metcalf still a solid option, but the Steelers' other receivers are in rare spots where they can provide fantasy value. 

A.J. Brown Unhappy Camper

After being the fantasy WR15 over the last five games on great volume, A.J. Brown fell back to Earth with three targets and 2.3 points in Week 10 after returning from injury. With another rough week, Brown recommended fantasy managers to trade him, and he may have a point. Everything has been difficult for Brown, resulting in a severe lack of consistency. Brown’s catchable target rate has dropped to 69% as his looks are much more difficult in a less versatile role than DeVonta Smith, whose catchable target rate is amazing at 87%.

When Brown was succeeding, a large part came from him being the clear top option versus man coverage and being the first-read. The league’s second-best rate of 42% first-read targets last year has fallen to 30% in 2025, lower than Smith. The Lions play plenty of man coverage as well as single-high safety looks, making the matchup better for the frustrated Brown. His production this season in terms of yards per route increases by 70% versus single-high coverages compared to two-high. If the Eagles WR speaking out doesn’t turn things around, I wouldn’t have much faith in him taking advantage of a good fantasy schedule.

Kyren Williams vs. Seattle

With Blake Corum eating into his volume, Kyren Williams has a lower floor than his past. The Rams with Matthew Stafford have never thrown to running backs much (outside of randomly giving Williams 10 targets in Week 5), making Williams more boom-bust based on his rushing production. In a quality offense, the Rams RB has great opportunities at the goal line and has been efficient in his volume overall. However, the matchup in Week 11 vs. Seattle isn’t the greatest for Williams.

The Seahawks are 30th versus receiving backs this season, but seventh-best against RB production on the ground. With the increase in 13 personnel being the talk of the week, I’ll point out that Williams has zero targets in their three TE sets this year, hurting his already low receiving volume. Tough rushing matchups ding Williams more this season, with Corum taking 40% of the RB carries this past month. Seattle has stuffed RBs on the goal line and only allowed a rushing TD to RBs in two games. If he can’t find his way into the end zone on Sunday, we may be in for another floor game like Williams did in 2024 versus the Seahawks.

Quinshon Judkins Rematch

When the Browns are not in control of the game, Quinshon Judkins' fantasy upside is severely limited. And they aren’t controlling many games. Judkins had his first game of his career versus Baltimore in Week 2, but only played 27% of the snaps in a 41-17 loss. He was very efficient with his carries, however, this is not the same Baltimore defense. Nobody allowed more points than the Ravens defense over the first six weeks of the season. Then the bye came. Since having Week 7 off, the adjustments to this defense have vaulted them to the second-best scoring defense in the NFL over the last month.

Since Dillon Gabriel began starting in Week 5, Judkins has single-digit fantasy points in three of five games, two of which he scored less than four points. The one ceiling game came in a 31-6 victory over Miami. I do not expect the Ravens to come to Cleveland and get handled like the Dolphins. If Baltimore is leading early, Judkins could get taken out of the game plan versus an improved rushing defense.

CeeDee Lamb To Hit Pay Dirt?

When a player is well below their expected TD rate, we must ask ourselves why in order to predict if they will regress to the mean. CeeDee Lamb has incredible volume with 54 targets in five games. However, his touchdowns (1) per target sit at 1.8%, a steep drop from his 5.5% rate the last few years. George Pickens is taking a decent amount of red zone work, but Lamb’s talent should bring him above his expected mark with Dak Prescott at QB.

There are very few negatives going against Lamb to not expect him to score more touchdowns going forward. Reminder, he is a fantasy WR1 with only one touchdown so far. I fully expect Lamb’s red zone usage to bounce back to normal and the touchdowns to follow.

There were a couple of hits for the sleeper page last week, as Alec Pierce did his thing again and Parker Washington scored a couple of touchdowns, though the return touchdown was certainly unexpected. The other picks were middling, but that’s life in the sleeper streets. Let’s see what we can find in Week 11.

RB Tyler Allgeier vs. Panthers (41%)

He was hardly used when the Panthers thumped the Falcons back in Week 3, but Allgeier has five touchdowns in his last six games. While everyone understands Bijan Robinson is the elite talent in the Atlanta backfield, Allgeier is a good player and has carved out a weekly role, especially at the goal line. Double-digit touches and another touchdown are likely outcomes at this point; Allgeier has graduated from the one-injury-away list to a useful spot-starter as we navigate bye weeks.

WR Michael Wilson vs. 49ers (16%)

He’s an ordinary talent, but he has posted a reasonable 14-179-0 line over the last four games. Now an opportunity bump is likely, with Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendectomy) out for at least Week 11. Jacoby Brissett has been surprisingly useful as the stand-in Arizona quarterback, and the San Francisco defense is missing several key players.

WR Luther Burden III at Vikings (8%)

He had a quasi-breakout last week (3-51-0), taking advantage of DJ Moore’s shoulder injury. If Moore is out or limited this week, Burden can take a step forward. It’s common for rookie receivers to show improvement in the second half of the year, so it’s go time for Burden.

TE Dalton Schultz at Titans (46%)

Schultz has been managing a knee and shoulder issue of late, and the shoulder problem kept him out of Wednesday’s practice. But if he’s fine later in the week, we’ll look to use him against Tennessee. Schultz has 24 catches in four weeks, and was one of the primary reads for Davis Mills in the comeback against Jacksonville. Mills is another sleeper to consider, if he’s needed to start again for C.J. Stroud (concussion).

WR Mack Hollins vs. Jets (3%)

Hollins has made a career out of being sneaky-useful — he led the Bills in touchdown catches last year, a fun piece of trivia from Josh Allen’s MVP season. Injuries have pushed Hollins into a bigger role recently, and he has 89- and 106-yard games in his recent logs. The Jets defense is weaker against the pass.

QB Marcus Mariota at Dolphins (16%)

I understand if you want to ignore this Spain game entirely, or wash your hands of the injured Washington offense. But for those open-minded, remember Mariota has 20-40 rushing yards in his back pocket in any week, and Miami has allowed the eighth-most points to opposing quarterbacks.

TE Pat Freiermuth vs. Bengals (16%)

Arthur Smith loves to dig deep on his tight end depth chart — Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith and Darnell Washington all carry goal-line equity. This type of wide usage tree is usually a rough ride for fantasy purposes, but we can’t ignore that Cincinnati has allowed 722 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, the ultimate giveaway. Freiermuth burned them for a 5-111-2 game a month ago, so he knows the way.