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We got back on track a bit in Week 11, finishing with six of the top 10 defenses called correctly. The Texans, Ravens, Rams, and Cowboys weren't that out of the blue, but the Dolphins and Steelers were a bit of an outlier prediction for me, and I trusted the model on those.

I will say, I had the Steelers around 17th before there were reports on Saturday that there would be wind gusts up to 30 mph, so this is a reminder to keep checking these rankings as the week goes on. This time of year, we're going to see lots of players who are banged up and might normally play start to sit if their teams are out of contention. That will change rankings a lot in the middle of the week.

That can also make rankings difficult because it's hard to know if we want to trust past production or lean into the potential upside of a current matchup. In general, I am always a believer in trusting the past production. I know that sometimes it causes me to miss out on a spike week, but I think it gives me a safer floor and prevents me from getting a truly abysmal score that can cost me a week.

As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are

2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 11: 6-4

SEASON-LONG: 55-55

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.

To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):

((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2)

MINUS

(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.75) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))

I then add that total to the team's fantasy points per game over the last eight weeks, since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on "gut feel" or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC'S PICK 3(DST) VIDEOOVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

The Seahawks are tied for fourth in fantasy football over the last two months, averaging 8.6 fantasy points per game. Over that stretch, they rank 3rd in pressure rate, 3rd in opponents' scoring rate, 5th in conversion rate allowed, and 8th in EPA per play allowed. Last week, the Titans had all three of their top receivers, Calvin Ridley, Elic Ayomanor, and Chimere Dike, leave the game with injuries. We know Ridley is now out for the season, but we'll need to keep an eye on the practice reports for the other two. Either way, this feels like a smash spot for the Seahawks.

The Browns are second in fantasy over the last two months, averaging 9.1 fantasy points per game, while ranking 3rd in the NFL in EPA per play allowed, 4th in the NFL in conversion rate allowed, 6th in turnover rate, and 10th in opponents' scoring rate. The Raiders have been better since Brock Bowers came back from injury, but they are giving up 8.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. This has one of the lowest totals on the slate and feels like a game where the Browns defense can post double-digit points.

The Bears rank 1st in the NFL in turnover rate, 10th in EPA per play allowed, and 11th in opponents' scoring rate while averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game over the last two months. They will likely face off against Mason Rudolph this weekend, with Jaylen Warren also potentially out or operating at less than 100%. Anytime you're getting a turnover-happy defense playing at home against Mason Rudolph, I'm going to take a shot.

This is where I'm deviating from my rankings. My model has the Ravens in tier three, in part because they have been inconsistent over the last two months and rank 7th in conversion rate allowed, but don't show up in the top 12 in any other stats I use. Also, the Jets are actually allowing just 3.0 fantasy points per game over the last month. Yet, I think a lot of that is how much they've been hiding Justin Fields and how run-heavy they've been. Now they are going to start Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, which means they aren't likely to be as run-heavy as they were when Fields was rushing 11 times per game. That should lead to more pass attempts, which could lead to more sacks and turnovers. The Ravens have been playing much better in a smaller sample size over the last month, so I'm gonna trust my gut over the numbers here and hope I'm right.

My initial rankings had the Patriots much lower, but then we got news that Ja'Marr Chase would be suspended for this game. We already know Joe Flacco is playing through a shoulder injury, but now we're taking his best weapon away and having him play against the top seed in the AFC. Over the last two months, the Patriots rank 6th in opponents' scoring rate, 7th in pressure rate, and 7th in EPA per play allowed, while averaging 7.8 fantasy points per game. Without Chase, I think this could be an 8+ point game from the Patriots' defense.

Over the last two months, the Rams rank 2nd in the NFL in turnover rate, 5th in opponents' scoring rate, 5th in EPA per play allowed, 9th in conversion rate allowed, and 10th in pressure rate while averaging 8.6 fantasy points per game. They are the 2nd-ranked defense in my model, and that means I'm going to want to play them more often than not. The Bucs could likely welcome back both Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin this weekend, so that might alter my ranking a bit, but I don't think I'll drop the Rams out of the top ten.

We normally don't want to play defenses against the Bills, but the Texans have been an elite unit, and the Bills have six turnovers in their last two games and have four games this season where they've turned the ball over at least twice. Over the last two months, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in EPA per play allowed, 2nd in conversion rate allowed, 2nd in opponents' scoring rate, 3rd in the NFL in turnover rate, and 4th in pressure rate while averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game. The Bills gave up 13 fantasy points to the Dolphins in Week 10 and are still likely going to be without Dalton Kincaid. Plus, Thursday night games are weird, man.

Lions rank 3rd in the NFL in conversion rate allowed, 4th in opponents' scoring rate, 4th in EPA per play allowed, and 12th in pressure rate while averaging 7.7 fantasy points per game. I understand the inclination to put the Lions up higher, but the Giants should get Jaxson Dart back this week, and they were only giving up five fantasy points per game with him under center. That lowers a bit of the ceiling for the Lions here, but if we don't get good news on Dart throughout the week, I could see moving the Lions up to the top of this tier or into the first one.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC'S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

I don't normally condone playing the Raiders defense, especially after we just saw them score 2.0 fantasy points against the Cowboys on Monday, but they're facing a Browns offense that has given up 13 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. The Browns might also get worse if Shedeur Sanders has to step in and start for Dillon Gabriel, who left last week's game with a concussion. The Raiders rank 9th in turnover rate over the last two months and should capitalize on that this week as slight home favorites in the lowest-scoring game on the slate.

You may look at the Falcons and Saints game and immediately think you want to play the Falcons, but I'm going the other way. Over the last two months, the Saints rank 5th in the NFL in turnover rate and 11th in EPA per play allowed, and are now going to face a Falcons offense that will be without Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London, who both got hurt on Sunday. Kirk Cousins looked really bad in his last start, and I actually think the Saints are in a better spot in this game; although, I think it's OK to play the Falcons in deeper formats.

The Jaguars are here because of their matchup. Even with Jacoby Brissett slinging the ball around the field, the Cardinals are giving up 12.7 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. I don't expect them to get Marvin Harrison Jr. back this week, but perhaps they get Trey Benson back from injury, and that could help this offense. The truth of the matter is that I simply don't trust this Jaguars defense, but they do average 6.6 fantasy points per game over the last two months, so maybe this is an 8-9 point showing from them, and I should move them up.

The Eagles are also averaging 7.7 fantasy points per game over the last two months, while ranking 5th in pressure rate, 6th in conversion rate allowed, 6th in EPA per play allowed, and 9th in opponents' scoring rate. I really like the additions they made to strengthen this unit, and I've rostered them in a few places. I still would prefer not to play them against a Cowboys offense that allowed just 6.3 points per game to opposing defenses.

The Chiefs and Colts are two solid defenses, but it's hard to feel good about playing either one against the other. They're both in the top ten in opponents' scoring rate over the last two months, so this could be a lower-scoring affair than we're used to seeing from these offenses, but that won't lead to much fantasy goodness if there aren't sacks or turnovers. I prefer to play the Chiefs of the two because their backs are up against the wall, and Daniel Jones has been regressing a bit in recent weeks.

I do expect CJ Stroud to be back under center for the Texans on Thursday, and the Bills' defense has been really struggling with injuries and poor tackling this season. Yes, the Bills rank 7th in turnover rate and 11th in pressure rate over the last two months, and they could beat this bad Texans offensive line, but they also haven't been able to contain any running backs they've faced and seem to always give up big plays on third down. That makes it hard to trust them in shallower formats.

The Bucs are a defense I usually like. Over the last two months, they rank 4th in the NFL in turnover rate, 6th in pressure rate, 8th in conversion rate allowed, and 12th in EPA per play allowed. However, the Rams are the WORST matchup for fantasy defenses over the last six weeks, so it's hard to trust Tampa Bay here.

I know people have the Packers ranked higher this week, but they average just 4.1 fantasy points per game over the last two months. I understand that J.J. McCarthy hasn't been good, and the Packers have a good pass rush, but they still have not produced as a fantasy defense, and there is talent on the Vikings' offense. I can't play either of these defenses this week, even though the Packers offense will likely be without Josh Jacobs.

The Steelers would normally be ranked higher for me, but the Bears allow 2.8 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last six weeks, and the Steelers' defense should be put in bad spots routinely by Mason Rudolph.

Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.

1. Rams (last week No. 1; 8-2): Round one of the two-part Seahawks showdown went to the home team. Barely.

2. Colts (No. 2; 8-2): A major test looms with a visit to the increasingly desperate Chiefs.

3. Broncos (No. 3; 9-2): There's a new sheriff in town.

4. Eagles (No. 5; 8-2): That defense is becoming elite.

5. Patriots (No. 7; 9-2): They should be 11-2 at the bye.

6. Seahawks (No. 6; 7-3): Even with an off day from Sam Darnold, they still had a chance.

7. Bears (No. 10; 7-3): They're this year's unofficial find-a-way franchise. And they might stumblebum into a division title.

8. Bills (No. 12; 7-3): Can they move the ball and score points against Houston's defense?

9. Lions (No. 4; 6-4): The consequences of Ben Johnson's departure are starting to surface.

10. Packers (No. 11; 6-3-1): They should consider a Malik Willis package.

11. Jaguars (No. 17; 6-4): Will their latest signature win have staying power?

12. Steelers (No. 15; 6-4): Can they string a pair of solid games together?

13. Buccaneers (No. 9; 6-4): A fifth straight NFC South crown is no longer a gimme.

14. 49ers (No. 18; 7-4): They'd love nothing more than to have another shot at the Rams in the playoffs.

15. Ravens (No. 14; 5-5): They're winning, even when they should lose.

16. Chargers (No. 8; 7-4): It's not going to be easy to come back from Sunday's Duval demolition.

17. Texans (No. 16; 5-5): Do they belong? Beat the Bills, and the answer is yes.

18. Chiefs (No. 13; 5-5): Forget about the AFC West. That Week 6 Monday night loss to the Jaguars could be the thing that keeps them out of the playoffs entirely.

19. Panthers (No. 19; 6-5): Are they ready for prime time? Ready or not, we'll see them there next Monday night.

20. Cowboys (No. 23; 4-5-1): The next three games — Eagles, Chiefs, at Lions — will show us everything we need to know about this team.

21. Vikings (No. 20; 4-6): "Nine" needs to show up sooner than after nine minutes have elapsed in the fourth quarter.

22. Dolphins (No. 25; 4-7): Where was this version of the team before the G.M. was fired?

23. Falcons (No. 21; 3-7): Arthur Blank's finger may be inching toward the red button.

24. Cardinals (No. 22; 3-7): Will Jonathan Gannon make it to Week 18?

25. Bengals (No. 24; 3-7): Joe Burrow probably should wait until next year.

26. Jets (No. 26; 2-8): They should find a way to use both Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields at the same time.

27. Giants (No. 27; 2-9): Sunday was a microcosm of the full Jameis Winston experience.

28. Browns (No. 28; 2-8): If they'd kept Joe Flacco as the backup, they would have beaten the Ravens.

29. Commanders (No. 29; 3-8): Could Dan Quinn be coaching his way onto the hot seat?

30. Saints (No. 30; 2-8): They can deliver a death blow to their hated rivals from Atlanta.

31. Raiders (No. 31; 2-8): Based on his playcalling, maybe Chip Kelly is trying to get fired.

32. Titans (No. 32; 1-9): It's safe to say Mike McCoy won't be sticking around beyond the balance of the season.