What do you worry about before you go to sleep? Your relationships? Your health? Your finances? Your golf swing?
Everyone is different, of course. But I worry about the quarterback class of 2024. We need these guys to solidify the NFL, but it’s been a bumpy ride.
Six quarterbacks were selected in the first round last year and most of them had optimistic starts as rookies. But this year it’s been a net loss for the group. Sure, Caleb Willams has shown improvement (Ben Johnson looks like a home-run hire) and Drake Maye is already in the MVP discussion. But J.J. McCarthy has been a flop, Michael Penix Jr. was erratic before suffering a season-ending injury and Bo Nix has regressed. Injuries have also ruined most of Jayden Daniels’s sophomore season.
The quarterback anxiety is not limited to the sophomore six, of course. I did a quick back-of-envelope exercise around the league, making a judgment call of how every team feels about its QB room today as opposed to a year ago. I assigned every team a grade of better, same or worse.
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Only six teams landed in the “better” bucket (Giants, Patriots, Seahawks, Colts, Bears, and Titans). Meanwhile, 13 teams were ranked “same” and 13 teams came in as “worse.” That's not a rosy scorecard.
It’s a quick and dirty way to evaluate things, of course. And we have to concede that several of the “same” teams are happy — Buffalo, Kansas City and Baltimore come to mind. When you have a former MVP at quarterback, you’re already living in the ceiling world.
But if you’re having trouble figuring out which fantasy players to trust and not trust as we head into the money weeks of the season, a lot of that agita probably is tied to inconsistent quarterback play. Several quarterbacks have gotten hurt this year, some have slumped, some have failed to launch. We’re all struggling here, directly or tangentially.
(Okay, full disclosure. I think about my wedge game before sleep, especially those short, soft pitch shots from a tight lie, over a bunker. We’re all works in progress.)
It's time to update the fantasy power rankings for this quarter, as we close in on Thanksgiving week. The ranks reflect how much fantasy usefulness each offense provides us. Settle in, settlers.
32. Tennessee Titans (Previous rank: 32nd)
Cam Ward’s rookie year hasn’t been as impressive as Maye’s was last year, but at least Ward is occasionally showing flashes of competence, despite an overmatched head coach (since fired) and the worst receiver room in the league. Ward should be a good sleeper candidate for the Superflex world next spring.
31. New York Jets (23)
All we’re asking from Tyrod Taylor is consistent play — give Breece Hall a chance to hold some touchdown equity. The Jets are obviously in rebuild mode, but low-risk chances on John Metchie and Adonai Mitchell made sense.
30. Cleveland Browns (31)
They filled up the quarterback room but there isn’t a right answer in the house. Quinshon Judkins passes the eye test but it’s been a slog lately, with just 273 yards (and 3.2 YPC) over the past five weeks.
29. Washington Commanders (15)
Just when Jacoby Croskey-Merritt looked ready to roll, Chris Rodriguez Jr. stepped in and stole the job. But with Daniels and Terry McLaurin missing so much time, this is not a destination offense. The Commanders assembled an old roster; a partial teardown might be needed after the season.
28. New Orleans Saints (30)
This team still needs a lot of repair, but at least the offense plays at a fast pace and we can trust Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson every week. This looks like the cliff season we worried about for Alvin Kamara.
27. Las Vegas Raiders (25)
It’s probably one-and-done for Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly, though the Raiders might be reluctant to eat the Carroll contract so soon. Ashton Jeanty has been at 3.5 YPC or lower for five straight weeks, and he’s topped 75 yards rushing just once all year.
26. Houston Texans (24)
Nico Collins has popped with backup QB Davis Mills, who targets Collins right off the bus. Woody Marks has been inconsistent as a rookie but his market share keeps rising — perhaps Buffalo is a smash spot for Week 12.
25. Atlanta Falcons (10)
The dreams died hard in Week 11, with Penix out for the year and Drake London expected to miss multiple games. Kirk Cousins probably doesn’t have anything left in the tank. Bijan Robinson is 2.7 yards better per touch than Tyler Allgeier, but Allgeier has three more rushing touchdowns.
24. New York Giants (29)
Jaxson Dart has been a breath of fresh air, though his proactive scrambling has been both reckless and effective. Tyrone Tracy Jr. was the coveted pickup after Cam Skattebo got hurt, but Devin Singletary has also forced his way into the discussion. TE Theo Johnson has been solid all year.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers (27)
The Steelers continue to do their purgatory dance — too good for a full teardown but not good enough to be taken as a Super Bowl contender. Aaron Rodgers has one 300-yard game since the beginning of 2022, covering 45 starts.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (21)
It’s the fifth season for Trevor Lawrence, maybe it’s time to accept this is as good as it gets. He’s not a kingmaker quarterback. Brian Thomas Jr. deserves blame for his own lost season, but we can’t forget that he was better with Mac Jones last year.
21. Carolina Panthers (28)
Rico Dowdle threw Chuba Hubbard out of the way and Tetairoa McMillan is starting to positively regress with the touchdowns. Bryce Young hasn’t built off last year’s fast finish, though he was terrific in the comeback at Atlanta.
20. Los Angeles Chargers (20)
Cluster injuries have wrecked the offensive line and the running game, and Justin Herbert didn’t have a chance in the loss at Jacksonville. Oronde Gadsden II is a fun player at tight end, posting a snappy 10.3 yards per target and winning on a variety of routes.
19. Miami Dolphins (19)
Mike McDaniel might have saved his job over the last few weeks, and at least the offense leans heavily on its two signature talents: De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle. The third-leading receiver on the team (by yardage) is still Tyreek Hill (out since Week 4), which tells you a lot.
18. Minnesota Vikings (13)
The Vikings probably wanted to keep Daniel Jones as J.J. McCarthy insurance, but you can’t blame Jones for recognizing the upside in Indianapolis. I’ve long said I would follow QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell into a burning building, but nobody can put this fire out with McCarthy playing so poorly.
17. Green Bay Packers (14)
Most of Green Bay's offensive upside evaporated when Tucker Kraft got hurt. Christian Watson has been useful since his return, but the Packers love their receiver platoons, capping the ceiling.
16. Arizona Cardinals (17)
Jacoby Brissett has emerged as the hero we needed all along, taking over for Kyler Murray and pumping juice back into this passing game. You get the idea Murray won’t be in Arizona next season.
15. New England Patriots (22)
TreVeyon Henderson finally joined the party with five touchdowns in the last two weeks, though Rhamondre Stevenson should return soon and this team wants to use multiple backs. The Patriots were slow with the Stefon Diggs onboarding, but he’s been a reliable WR2 since October.
14. Denver Broncos (18)
The kids are starting to take over, with Troy Franklin edging past Courtland Sutton and RJ Harvey ready to become the team’s new primary back (Harvey wasn’t great in the Kansas City game, but follow the snaps and ignore the surface stats). But with Bo Nix sliding backwards, the Broncos have the look of a team that will get upset in the playoffs.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (26)
Joe Flacco didn’t have it at Pittsburgh but for the most part he’s salvaged this offense from a fantasy perspective. Joe Burrow is close to a return, but does it make sense to rush him back when the team is essentially locked out of the playoff hunt? Chase Brown came alive when the Bengals moved on from Jake Browning.
12. Kansas City Chiefs (7)
Xavier Worthy was touted as a field-stretcher out of college, but he’s been anything but through a couple of seasons. He’s also dinged up. Tyquan Thornton keeps producing splash plays on limited snaps; what does he have to do to play more? The Chiefs should have tried harder for Jets RB Breece Hall at the trade deadline.
11. Buffalo Bills (6)
Keon Coleman has failed to launch and a legitimate Dalton Kincaid breakout was derailed by injury. Josh Allen still has the Superman cape and James Cook produces most of the time, but Buffalo is going to regret not solving its receiver problem.
10. Chicago Bears (11)
Nobody really takes Chicago’s 7-3 record seriously, but the Caleb Williams improvement is real. He’s significantly cut his sack rate and bumped his YPA to a juicy 7.2. Keep an eye on rookie WR Luther Burden III, who saw a season high in targets last week.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (8)
The song remains the same in Philadelphia, where the team keeps winning but nobody seems happy. The loss of star OL Lane Johnson caps the rushing upside, and A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts haven’t been on the same page for weeks. The Eagles have posted 302 yards of offense or fewer in seven of 10 games, not acceptable given the talent here.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5)
Baker Mayfield has hit a lull in the middle of the year, though you can’t survive forever with so many skill-position injuries. It feels like Chris Godwin Jr. and Bucky Irving will both be back in November, perhaps as soon as Week 12.
7. Seattle Seahawks (16)
Does Sam Darnold just have the yips against the Rams or is there some legitimate pumpkin risk here? Seattle is going to lean into a backfield platoon most weeks, but Kenneth Walker III has at least earned the right to be the first option.
6. Baltimore Ravens (12)
Lamar Jackson isn’t really back to full throttle yet, but a paper-thin upcoming schedule should take care of everything. Zay Flowers continues to produce solid yardage totals, but he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. Let’s spin it a different way — Jackson has 56 touchdown passes the last two years, and just five of them went to Flowers.
5. Dallas Cowboys (2)
I’ve been a Jake Ferguson fan for most of his career, but his production has tailed off now that the wide receivers are all healthy. CeeDee Lamb goes down as a mild draft loss, as George Pickens has been the more dynamic downfield threat.
4. San Francisco 49ers (9)
This could be a league-winning offense in the final quarter — most of the key players are finally back (maybe Brandon Aiyuk is the lone write-off) and the injury-riddled defense is going to force a lot of pinball games. Christian McCaffrey is down to 3.7 yards per carry, but he’s on pace for 114-1,131-8 through the air.
3. Indianapolis Colts (4)
The schedule isn’t fun for the rest of the season, but Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren and Alec Pierce all have Circle of Trust privileges. Daniel Jones might have lost some believers after the turnover mess at Pittsburgh, but I’m keeping the faith.
2. Los Angeles Rams (3)
Puka Nacua’s market share in September was too good to be true — his target counts are dropping, in part because the Rams love to throw multiple tight ends at the opponent. But any Sean McVay offense is going to be centered on the main guys; this offense still uses a very concentrated usage tree.
1. Detroit Lions (1)
There have been occasional hiccups (let’s burn the Week 11 tape at Philadelphia) but for the most part this has been the bankable offense we all signed up for. Jameson Williams has been more involved since the bye week, and Detroit now steps into six glorious indoor games, just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Giddy up.