NFL offseason power rankings: No. 28 New York Jets start over after failed Aaron Rodgers experiment
Aaron Rodgers wasn't bad last season. He wasn't at an MVP level and consistency was an issue, but he wasn't the New York Jets' biggest problem. He was a middle of the road quarterback, which allegedly was all the Jets needed to be a playoff team.
The Jets got better at quarterback from the dreck they had been used to the two seasons prior, and their record somehow got worse. The collapse of everything around the Jets, leading to an extension of the longest playoff drought in American professional sports, was an indictment of the franchise. Moving on from the Rodgers era, which was full of hype and excitement and resulted in five wins in games Rodgers started, isn't a quick fix. The Jets went all-in and missed. Now it starts all over.
Aaron Glenn seems to be a good hire to lead the rebuild. The new Jets head coach has already done well handling a tough market and also an uncomfortable Rodgers situation. Rodgers felt put out when he flew across the country to meet with the Jets, just to be greeted with a no-nonsense 15-minute meeting. Glenn and new Jets general manager Darren Mougey told Rodgers they were moving on and didn't ask for Rodgers' input on the direction of the franchise, which Rodgers thought he'd provide. Glenn and Mougey didn't want to hear it. The meeting was short, sweet and to the point. Plenty of fans probably appreciated the new Jets brass after that story, especially after dealing with plenty of Rodgers drama and the franchise bending over backward for him.
Justin Fields is the next quarterback, a fairly low-cost gamble that the Jets can easily move on from if it doesn't work out. The Jets have plenty of talented players, which was the reason they had hopes for a big season last year if Rodgers was simply an average quarterback. The Jets have a miserable ownership situation with Woody Johnson, and that will be a constant obstacle, but there are some seeds of optimism.
The Jets first have to figure out what went wrong last season. The defense had a startling downturn. Breece Hall was expected to break out in his third season but was a disappointment, which held back the run game. The Jets made the astonishingly bad move to trade a third-round pick (92nd overall) for Davante Adams after falling to 2-4, and the Jets' passing game was mediocre with him. It's unlikely to be better with Fields replacing Rodgers and Adams off to the Rams.
There were major organizational failures that led to the Jets somehow going from 7-10 with Zach Wilson at quarterback to 5-12 with Rodgers playing much better than Wilson ever did. Mougey and Glenn are the in charge of changing that, though they're far from the first group to try in this miserable era of Jets football. Rodgers was supposed to break the Jets' streak of not making the playoffs, but it's alive at 14 seasons. And the worst part of coming up woefully short after that big move is the Jets might shift back near square one.
Offseason grade
The Jets had to clean house after acquiring plenty of aging veterans for their shot at glory with Aaron Rodgers. Players like Rodgers, Davante Adams, Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, C.J. Mosley, Javon Kinlaw, D.J. Reed and Haason Reddick might be either past their primes or priced themselves out of a Jets return, but that's a lot of talent to lose in one offseason. The Jets' only notable additions in free agency were Justin Fields, which was necessary to have a reasonable quarterback Week 1, and defensive backs Brandon Stephens and Andre Cisco. The draft brought offensive tackle Armand Membou, tight end Mason Taylor and cornerback Azareye'h Thomas with the team's three top-100 picks, which was fine. The Jets got a lot younger this offseason, which had to happen. The Jets had the most roster turnover in the NFL over the offseason, according to Over the Cap. It's just hard to buy that the Jets' roster is better than at the end of last season.
Grade: D
Quarterback report
Justin Fields didn't come into the NFL as a run-first quarterback, but that's how he has been cast after four seasons. Fields ran for 1,143 yards for the Chicago Bears in 2022, and that has become a dangerous part of his game. What if he can develop as a passer? Fields took some strides last season with the Pittsburgh Steelers. His on-target percentage of throws was 75%, which was a career best and near the league average of 75.9% via Pro Football Reference. His percentage of bad throws, via PFR, was a career best 15.8%, only 0.1% off the league average. His completion percentage of 65.8% was 4.4% better than his previous career best. Fields just turned 26 years old, so there is time for him to grow. If Fields can be a league-average passer and combine that with the elite running skills he has shown, the Jets' two-year, $40 million gamble will be a good one.
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “A new season brings yet another new quarterback for the Jets, as Justin Fields looks to prove that he can be a long-term starter at the position. New York is favored in only two games this season, including one of the biggest spreads of the season: +11.5 at the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12. The Jets haven’t made the postseason since 2010, but at +475 odds at BetMGM, oddsmakers don’t think this is the year to break the streak. New York has a low win total (5.5) again this season and has gone under in six of the past seven seasons."
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Justin Fields might never be a great NFL quarterback. He has a major sack problem, and he won just 10 of 38 games as the Chicago starter. That said, Fields is a gifted runner and he's tied to a Jets team that can probably play to his strengths. And given that Tyrod Taylor is the backup, Fields probably begins the year with a fair amount of job security. New York's receiver group isn't deep, but at least Fields had experience — and success — with WR Garrett Wilson in college. Given how fantasy leagues score quarterback rushing production, Fields looks like a screaming value with a modest global ADP of QB15."
Stat to remember
The Jets will be a run-heavy team. One quick look at the personnel, including starting at quarterback, tells you that. That should be good news for a Breece Hall bounce-back, but after last season it's hard to know what to make of Hall. Hall was supposed to be a star last season in a good offense, but he was ineffective. Hall played in 16 games yet had just 876 yards rushing. The advanced stats aren't much kinder.
Among players with at least 200 carries last season, only D'Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor had a lower Pro Football Focus grade. His six fumbles were tied for the second most among NFL running backs. His production in the passing game fell, with eight drops that tied for the NFL lead among RBs (via PFF), and his yards per carry dipped for the second straight season. Hall averaged 5.8 yards as a rookie, 4.5 yards in 2023 and 4.2 last season. Jets coach Aaron Glenn said Hall will split carries with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis in a three-man committee. In a perfect scenario Hall would pull away from that group as he shows the form he had as a rookie before tearing his ACL, and again late in his second season. After last season, it's hard to depend on that.
Burning question
What happened to the Jets' defense?
The Jets were sixth in defensive DVOA in 2022, third in 2023 and then fell to 20th last season. The reasons for the drop were multifold. Just about every player on defense took a step back from their typical level, including former All-Pros in cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. The unit went into a slide after head coach Robert Saleh was fired five games into the season. Saleh is a fantastic defensive coach and the defense slipped when coordinator Jeff Ulbrich was promoted to interim head coach. There were injuries. The Jets had the sixth-most adjusted games lost on defense due to injury last season, according to FTN Fantasy. The big plays evaporated. The Jets had just seven interceptions, and two came in Week 18. The Jets blew numerous fourth-quarter leads, in part because the pass rush wasn't consistent. Haason Reddick was a big disappointment, starting with his offseason holdout. The Jets needed Reddick to be a consistent producer, and he had one sack all season.
The Jets were good at keeping offenses from piling up yards — they were tied for eighth in pass yards per play allowed and tied for fifth in rush yards per play allowed — so that's a reason to believe in a rebound. Aaron Glenn did very good work orchestrating the Detroit Lions' defense, so that's another plus. If the Jets defense bounces back to its levels from 2022 and 2023, maybe there will be a big rebound overall.
Best-case scenario
The Jets were bad last season, but talent really wasn't the issue. The roster had plenty of good players, albeit some aging ones. The young core of the Jets — defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, cornerback Sauce Gardner, receiver Garrett Wilson, running back Breece Hall, pass rushers Will McDonald IV and Jermaine Johnson, linebacker Jamien Sherwood and an offensive line with three first-round picks and one second-round pick — is impressive if they all play to their talent level. Aaron Glenn was a good hire and could prove to be a culture changer, which the Jets obviously need. If the defense's fall last season was a fluke and it gets back in the top 10, and a new-look offense with Justin Fields at QB is effective, it's not out of the question for a much younger Jets team to be a big surprise. The numerous fourth-quarter collapses and injuries are very unlikely to repeat. Simply turning the page to a new year and leaving last season's debacle in the past might be enough to spark a turnaround.
Nightmare scenario
There's a reason the Bears moved on from Justin Fields and the Steelers were eager to replace him with Russell Wilson last season. He hasn't proven to be a good enough passer to carry an effective offense. The Jets know what life is like with bad quarterback play, and what if that's paired with a defense that doesn't bounce all the way back to its 2022-23 level? Aaron Glenn was a good hire but he's an unknown as a head coach, and there was something so off with the 2024 Jets that it might not be easily fixable. Another year of malaise with a new coach, quarterback and a younger roster would indicate that the Jets' playoff drought is probably going to last a while longer.
The crystal ball says
Even though the Jets are ranked low, after a miserable season with a lot of offseason attrition and a potential downgrade at quarterback, there are reasons to believe the Jets could be much better than expected. Last season's failure was confounding when you consider how many good players the Jets have. It's tough to be too optimistic about the Jets coming into the season, but Aaron Glenn could prove to be the type of coach who gets the most out of his team and also handles the New York market well. New York deserves to be ranked near the bottom to start the season because there are so many questions, but the Jets could rise quickly. Just not enough to finally make it back to the playoffs.
