Sports

Being the most valuable team doesn’t make you the most valuable bet.

Like their counterparts in other sports — the Lakers, Yankees, and Maple Leafs — the Cowboys being the most valuable franchise to own in the NFL, hasn’t made them a valuable bet. In fact, the attention these teams get usually means it’s the opposite, as they’re often given the benefit of the doubt among the betting populace, and their implied win probability gets inflated.

We’re just scratching the surface on what having pro sports franchises in the gambling capital of the world means to betting lines, but since arriving in Las Vegas, the Raiders haven’t been good enough to get any of the same excessive consideration that Dallas does.

While these are big-picture concepts, when we break down the market for Cowboys-Raiders on Monday Night Football, the macro meets the micro in assessing value against the spread.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 50) at Las Vegas Raiders

Since before Week 1, when the Cowboys were undervalued in the NFL’s regular-season opener with the Eagles, we’ve asserted that as long as Dak Prescott is taking the snaps for Dallas, that the Cowboys should be rated as an average NFL team (which at the time they were not). Since then, with Prescott at the helm and the Cowboys’ rating corrected, they are 3-5 against the spread.

Not proving that the Cowboys are an above-average team isn’t a result of disappointing play from Prescott, but instead the blame should be put on a defense that’s 30th in opponent’s EPA/play on dropbacks, and 31st in opponent’s EPA/play on rushing plays. The last time we saw the Cowboys, Arizona journeyman QB Jacoby Brissett was converting five third-and-longs against them … in the first half!

Amidst that Monday Night Football broadcast, Jerry Jones created some low-level buzz about a trade that he had made to help the defense, and the possibility for more to come. At the trade deadline, the Cowboys acquired Logan Wilson, and more importantly, Quinnen Williams. These additions (and consideration for coming off of a bye week) might be why the Cowboys are still rated as an above-average team by a betting market willing to make Dallas 3.5-point favorites on the road. Apparently uninterested in the fact that the new faces were key parts of defenses that are 31st (Bengals) and 23rd (Jets) in dropback EPA/play.

By comparison, the now 6-4 Jaguars recently closed -1.5 in Las Vegas, and the now 7-3 Bears (who have beaten the Cowboys convincingly) were 2.5-point underdogs at the Raiders.

Las Vegas just played an ugly primetime game of its own, where the Broncos’ highly-rated defense shut down the Raiders’ offense, particularly Brock Bowers. Going from a road game against a defense that features the “No Fly Zone” to a home game against a team that allows teams to take off as frequently as the runways at nearby McCarron Airport, is a stark contrast. Yet, because the Raiders’ offense didn’t move the ball last week, they’re still rated alongside teams like the Browns and Bengals.

This will only be the fourth game where the Raiders’ offense will be able to deploy Bowers at full health — the key to the two-tight-end (12-personnel) sets that their offense was designed for by Chip Kelly.

In Bowers’ return to the lineup two games ago against the Jags – and facing a comparable-but-still-better defense than Dallas – Geno Smith had his best game since a Week 1 win at New England (the only other game that Bowers started healthy), throwing for 284 yards and four touchdowns. Add in a looser defense for Ashton Jeanty to run against, and the Raiders’ offense should be made to look as good as they have all season.

That gives us permission to take the points with Las Vegas, and a much better defensive unit, in what should be a close game.

Pick: Raiders +3.5

Player props

Dak Prescott longest pass completion under 36.5 yards (-118)

With the scheduling quirk of back-to-back Monday nighters for the Cowboys, we can be self-referential to a winning bet from two weeks ago:

“…the reason this line is so high is because of the Cowboys’ duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. They’re intimidating, but they’ve combined for four long receptions in 12 combined games played this season.”

Those numbers are up to four in 14 games, after the Cowboys weren’t able to connect deep down the field against Arizona. While the Raiders have allowed a few long passes this season, other deep-ball offenses like the Patriots, Bears and Colts weren’t able to go over the top of Patrick Graham’s sneaky-decent, pass-defense unit.

Ashton Jeanty over 61.5 rushing yards (-115)

Most everyone can picture the Cowboys’ pass defense getting gashed, but we referenced above that the run defense is just as poor. Jeanty’s shown the contact-balance that made him a first-round pick in April, but he hasn’t gotten a chance to explode against a vulnerable front … yet. Even in an uphill battle on the ground two Thursday ago, the Raiders stuck with the run in Denver, giving Jeanty 19 carries.

Being an underdog suggests the Raiders aren’t as likely to be able to lean on the running game in the fourth quarter, but, like two weeks ago, if we think the underdog can beat the favored Cowboys, we should be pricing in some extra rushing yards late. Just like the Cardinals had when two running backs combined for 23 carries and 106 yards rushing.

Brock Bowers over 6.5 receptions (-120)

If it were so easy to stop Bowers, everyone would do it. The Broncos have the top pass defense in the NFL, and, well, the Cowboys don’t.

Star tight end Tre McBride only had five catches in Dallas, but the Cardinals threw it his direction nine times, and didn’t need to push the ball through the air in the fourth quarter. Even with tempered optimism for the Raiders’ chances, a two-score lead and no need to throw in the fourth quarter seems unfathomable for Las Vegas.

In the aforementioned comparable matchup — Week 9 versus Jacksonville — Smith threw it to Bowers 13 times, and he caught 12 balls. It was reminiscent of his rookie season where he caught seven or more passes eight times.

Anytime touchdown

Jake Ferguson (+220)

While a high total suggests that there should be more than a few touchdowns in this game, it also artificially drops the odds for many of the most likely scorers, making them less valuable than our projections.

For the Cowboys, though, any time Ferguson is priced at better than 2-to-1, we’re compelled to take it.

Coming off a bye, the usual dings and knocks a tight end has to deal with midway through the season should be healed up, and Ferguson can go back to being Prescott’s favorite red zone target. Two Monday nights’ ago, we backed him to score but he dropped a pair of looks inside the 5-yard-line. With rest helping focus, we expect Ferguson to haul in any scoring chance he has, returning him back to the player that had six touchdowns in four straight games before getting dinged up in Week 8.

Tre Tucker (+220)

With the trade of Jakobi Meyers, and the 12-personnel that the Raiders run so much on offense, Tucker played every snap for the first time in his career last week in Denver.

Since a three-touchdown game in Week 3, Tucker’s caught 21 of the 27 targets sent his way from Geno Smith, but without a touchdown to show for it. There’s no secondary that will help you snap a production drought like the Cowboys. Smith and Tucker have enough chemistry that one should find the other open in the end zone amidst an oft-confused Dallas secondary.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Welcome to the Jameson Williams experience. 

The Lions receiver burned the Philadelphia Eagles defense Sunday for Detroit's first touchdown of the night. He then cost Detroit a point thanks to a penalty on the ensuing celebration. 

Here's how it went down. 

The Eagles showed Williams soft coverage off the line of scrimmage on first-and-10 from near midfield. Williams sprinted across the middle and caught a play-action pass from Jared Goff. By the time cornerback Adoree' Jackson closed the gap, Williams was sprinting past him for a 40-yard touchdown. 

It was the type of game-breaking play that prompted the Lions to select Williams in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. 

Then he did this. After running untouched into the end zone, Williams leapt and straddled the padding around the goal-post stanchion as if he were giving it a bear hug. 

It was a clear-cut unsportsmanlike conduct violation and one that immediately drew a flag for a 15-yard penalty. 

That penalty was enforced on the ensuing extra point on a windy night in Philadelphia where successful kicks were already harder to come by. Jake Bates pushed the extended extra point wide right, and instead of taking a 7-6 lead, the Lions tied the game at 6.

Williams is the type of tremendous NFL athlete who takes the top off opposing defenses and can make plays to win a game. He's also prone to unforced errors on and off the field that repeatedly cap his upside. 

Sunday's sequence was a prime example of the full Williams spectrum.