Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let’s open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.
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Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, WR, Rams
It pains me to say anything even slightly negative about Nacua. He’s a superstar. He plays every snap like it’s his last. He’s the easiest guy in the world to root for.
But we can’t ignore that Adams was put on this Earth to dominate in the red area. And the Rams simply don’t use Nacua in the same way.
This has been underscored the last four weeks, since Nacua returned from injury. Adams has nine red-zone targets and five red-zone touchdown catches, best among NFL wideouts for that sample. Meanwhile, Nacua has just three targets in this area, and zero touchdowns, since his return.
This is not a new concern for Nacua managers, of course. Last year (without Adams to share with) he had a modest 13 red-zone targets (23rd among receivers) and a modest three red-zone touchdowns. For as much as Nacua dominates between the 20s, the Rams have never had the best plays for him from in close.
Sometimes you just have to shrug and say “start them all” with an offense like this. The situation is similar in Dallas — CeeDee Lamb is still plenty good, but George Pickens has been more impactful than expected. Adams was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before he signed with the Rams, but his red-zone dominance has immediately translated to his new team. I’m going to rank all four of these receivers inside the top 10 this week, but I’ll give some thought to perhaps listing Adams and Pickens as the WR1s on their own teams.
Cincinnati’s Awful Seam Coverage
It wasn’t a surprise that Hunter Henry cooked at Cincinnati last week (7-115-1). The Bengals can’t stop anyone’s tight end this year. Heck, Henry had a second score called back by a questionable penalty, and on another reception, he was tackled just shy of the goal. He was already the TE1 for the week, but it could have been a nuclear performance.
This coverage leak was a problem for Cincinnati when the year started, but it’s really spiked in recent games. Henry did what he did in Week 12. Colston Loveland had his “Hello, World” game in Week 9 (6-118-2). Mason Taylor had five catches and a touchdown in Week 8. Three different Pittsburgh tight ends combined for four touchdowns in Week 7, Tucker Kraft spiked in Week 6, and Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright both found the end zone in Week 5. Automatic for the people.
This is when you get out the remaining schedule and start salivating. Here’s the dance card for the rest of the way, the tight ends who draw the Bengals:
Week 13: Mark Andrews, Ravens (Thanksgiving)
Week 14: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (hopefully)
Week 15: Andrews again
Week 16: Greg Dulcich or (perhaps) Darren Waller, Dolphins
Week 17: Trey McBride, Cardinals (Yahtzee!)
Week 18: Harold Fannin Jr. or David Njoku, Browns
Get to work on your touchdown dance. We’ll see you in the end zone.
Dylan Sampson, RB, Browns
Often it’s a mistake to look for reasonable patterns with the Cleveland Browns. They’ve made the playoffs just three times since the 1999 reboot, and it’s been just four winning seasons over that period. I have great admiration for the loyal Cleveland fans, but the team has often let the city down.
So I guess it wasn’t that surprising when Sampson had a snappy Week 1 debut as a pass-catcher — 8-64-0, securing every target — then was mothballed for weeks. Sure, the availability of fellow rookie RB Quinshon Judkins had to be respected, but Sampson was also a star at a major college, and his pass-catching chops reserved some respect.
Maybe the Browns are getting back to Sampson. He had six targets and a 5-29-0 line in the New England loss a month ago, and then last week he erupted for a 66-yard touchdown on a perfectly-designed screen pass. Judkins also missed some time in the Week 12 win — though he later returned to the game after undergoing a concussion screening.
Sampson wasn’t just a good player at Tennessee, he was a star. He led the SEC in rushing yards and total touchdowns last year and was named the conference's Offensive Player of the Year. Maybe Sampson can’t be trusted for fantasy unless Judkins has a setback, but I want to see more of Sampson’s pass-catching work. And after last week, maybe the Browns are finally on board, too.
RJ Harvey, RB, Broncos
Harvey is an obvious spotlight player for the final quarter of the year. He’s had time to get his feet wet, and the Broncos need him more than ever with J.K. Dobbins down for the year. Harvey didn’t go off the last time we saw him (Week 11’s win over Kansas City), but he did handle 14 touches, his second-highest count of the year. Part of that return was a 3-20-0 day through the air.
And that pass-catching role has major untapped potential. You might notice Harvey has caught 28-of-32 passes this year, and he’s scored on four receptions. And if you run the stats on the best passer ratings tied to a running back being targeted, Harvey leads everyone with a gaudy 131.6 number. Nobody’s even close; a handful of backs are in the 113-119 range when targeted (Kyren Williams, Sampson from above, Jonathan Taylor, Kyle Juszczyk, Jahmyr Gibbs).
To be fair, the passer rating stat puts a lot of emphasis on touchdowns — perhaps too much. Harvey’s catch rate is outstanding but 6.1 yards per target is ordinary. It’s not like he’s making us forget Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson. But player improvement is often linear for rookies, and the Broncos have had some time to coach Harvey up for an increased role. I’m eager to see the unveiling in the upcoming weeks.
Top-5 target earners at each position from Week 12
Wide Receiver
Player | Targets | Receptions | Target Share |
Michael Wilson, Cardinals | 15 | 10 | 32.6% |
Wan'Dale Robinson, Giants | 14 | 9 | 41.2% |
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions | 13 | 9 | 34.2% |
Chris Olave, Saints | 13 | 9 | 30.2% |
Rashee Rice, Chiefs | 12 | 8 | 27.9% |
Running Back
Player | Targets | Receptions | Target Share |
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions | 12 | 11 | 31.6% |
Ashton Jeanty, Raiders | 8 | 8 | 19% |
Saquon Barkley, Eagles | 8 | 7 | 22.2% |
Devin Neal, Saints | 7 | 5 | 16.3% |
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers | 7 | 7 | 21.9% |
Tight End
Player | Targets | Receptions | Target Share |
George Kittle, 49ers | 10 | 6 | 31.3% |
Trey McBride, Cardinals | 10 | 9 | 21.7% |
Hunter Henry, Patriots | 10 | 7 | 30.3% |
Brock Bowers, Raiders | 9 | 6 | 21.4% |
Juwan Johnson, Saints | 7 | 6 | 16.3% |