NFL Playoff Projection: Chiefs' streak of AFC West titles might be on the line at Denver
The Kansas City Chiefs' shot at winning the AFC West wouldn't be done with a loss to the Denver Broncos on Sunday. But it would become a steep climb.
The Broncos are 8-2. The Chiefs are 5-4. With a loss by the Chiefs on Sunday, the 9-2 Broncos would be three-and-a-half games ahead of the 5-5 Chiefs with just seven games to go for Kansas City. Not to mention the Los Angeles Chargers are still ahead of the Chiefs too (with a head-to-head victory in hand). You see the potential problem for Kansas City.
That kind of deficit isn't impossible to make up, but just about everything would have to go right for the Chiefs to overcome it. That's not a situation they're used to.
The Chiefs have won nine straight AFC West championships, but they took some early losses this season in close games and the Broncos and Chargers are improved from years past. Even if the Chiefs rally to win the division this season, it won't be as easy as it has been for most of their run.
The Broncos have gotten a lot of grief for their offensive woes, which were on full display in an ugly 10-7 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last week, but the defense is very good. It gives Denver a solid floor; they're not going to lose many games this season. That means the Chiefs need to take advantage of every opportunity to pull closer to Denver.
It seems like the Chiefs' streak of AFC West championships might be on the line in Denver on Sunday. If they lose, the most realistic path to the playoffs is getting a wild-card spot. That's something we haven't seen in many years.
Here are the other Week 11 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
It's a shame that Seahawks-Rams takes place in the same late afternoon window as Chiefs-Broncos. Both games are monster games in their divisions. It's too bad one couldn't be squeezed into prime time.
The Seahawks and Rams are each 7-2, and while the 6-4 San Francisco 49ers can't be written off, Sunday's game in Los Angeles will go a long way toward determining the NFC West championship. There is a rematch at Seattle set for Week 16, too. Both games should be phenomenal.
Neither team has many weaknesses. Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford are both playing at a high level, with strong weapons around them. Both defenses are very good too. The winner of this game will have an early inside track toward a division title.
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
If the Jaguars want to stay in the wild-card race, they probably need a win on Sunday. Jacksonville's fourth-quarter collapse at the Houston Texans set them back to 5-4. The Chargers are 7-3 and if they don't win the AFC West, they're a prime wild-card contender. That's why Jacksonville needs to beat them and get the important head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Jaguars fall to .500 with a loss, their odds to make the playoffs get significantly longer.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Joe Burrow's return to practice makes this game a little more urgent. The 3-6 Bengals need to make sure Burrow has something to return to. If they can beat the 5-4 Steelers, sweeping the AFC North leaders and clinching the tiebreaker over them, that's a big start. The 4-5 Baltimore Ravens loom large in the race of course, but Burrow's possible return is very interesting. But the Bengals need some wins before he comes back to stay in the race.
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles
If the 7-2 Eagles beat the 6-3 Lions, their path to the No. 1 seed gets a lot clearer. Philadelphia is a good team that benefits from playing in a much weaker division than other contenders like the Lions, Packers, Seahawks or Rams.
The Lions still have tough games left against the Packers, Bears and Vikings within their division alone, so even a win over the Eagles might not result in a No. 1 seed down the road. But a loss for Detroit, which would put them two games behind the Eagles and give Philadelphia the potential head-to-head tiebreaker, would be tough to overcome.