Sports

Week 10 of the NFL season began with a less than memorable Thursday night game, as the Denver Broncos eked out a 10-7 win as 8.5-point home favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping team of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng, Michael Fiddle and Matt Jacob combine to give their best bets for Week 10 of the NFL season. This article will be updated throughout the weekend.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change.

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 48.5)

Feng: Daniel Jones threw three interceptions last week against the Steelers. Even worse, the Pittsburgh defense had another nine passes defended by getting a hand on the football or jarring it loose with a hit. Let’s give Jones a little slack since he threw the ball 49 times, but not too much. 

My model at The Power Rank uses both interceptions and passes defended to predict future interceptions, and it gives a 54.9% chance that Jones throws a pick against Atlanta compared to the 51.2% break-even probability of the market. The model has liked Jones to throw a pick all season and still shows value despite his performance last week.

Bet: Daniel Jones over 0.5 INTs (-105)

Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 50.5) at Miami Dolphins

Jacob: The Dolphins and Bills engaged in a 31-21 shootout on a Thursday night in Buffalo in Week 3, with the game barely ticking over the 50.5-point closing total.

Since then, the Bills have played three games that touched or got close to 50 points — 31-19 vs. New Orleans; 40-9 at Carolina; 28-21 vs. Kansas City — and two that fell well short of 50 points (23-20 vs. New England and 24-14 vs. Atlanta).

Meanwhile, since a five-game “over” streak in which they and their opponents combined for 60, 52, 48, 51 and 63 points, the Dolphins have played three games that have averaged 38.3 total points.

The highest-scoring of the bunch: a 34-10 win at Atlanta.

Then there’s this noteworthy trend: While the over has hit in each of the last four Bills-Dolphins meetings in Buffalo and 10 of the last 11 — with nine reaching or exceeding 50 points — the under has cashed in each of the last four battles in Miami.

Final scores: 35-0, 21-19, 21-14 and 31-10.

Bet: Bills-Dolphins under 50 points (-110)

Cleveland Browns (-2, 38) at New York Jets

Craig: Should the Browns be a favorite against anyone on the road? Given the low total, this is an ugly game which fits the key fundamentals of a Wong teaser, so I’ll look to add the Jets into some teaser positions.

Bet: Six-point teaser (Jets +8 and Eagles +8.5)

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 48)

Feng: To my surprise, Drake Maye has been fantastic this season, as the second-year QB ranks fourth among active starters in my passing success rate adjusted for opposing defense. He’s doing this with targets like an old Stefon Diggs and TE Hunter Henry, so who am I to doubt Maye if WR Kayshon Boutte can’t play this week. 

However, the New England pass defense has been horrible, as it ranks 28th in those same adjusted passing success rate numbers. My model has Tampa Bay by 4.8 points, and we just have to hope Baker Mayfield plays like he did against Seattle and San Francisco, and not like he did against Detroit.

Bet: Bucs -2.5

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 49.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Jacob: The Rams currently resemble a runaway freight train, not only winning and covering three straight games but doing so by the combined score of 86-20. Included in those games are a 17-3 victory at Baltimore and a 35-7 beatdown of the Jaguars in London.

So it’s understandable that Los Angeles is favored at San Francisco on Sunday. That is, until you realize the 49ers were the last team to beat the Rams. In fact, they did so in Southern California. As an 8.5-point underdog. Despite missing a boatload of starters.

Yep, with a bunch of backups leading the way, San Francisco stunned the Rams 26-23 in overtime in Week 5.

It marked the 10th time in the last 14 meetings between these NFC West rivals that the underdog won outright. And the 13th time in those 14 meetings that the underdog covered the point spread.

What about the Niners’ current form? Well, the word inconsistent comes to mind. Since starting out 3-0, they’ve alternated losses and victories in the last six weeks, most recently dusting the Giants 34-24 in New York.

Still, San Francisco (6-3) is nipping at the heels of the Rams (6-2) in the division standings. And even though L.A. will be out for revenge, I see this as a tightly contested three-point game.

Bet: 49ers +4.5

Fiddle: McVay vs. Shanahan has all the makings for another NFC West division classic, but I am specifially looking to back George Kittle to show that he is back at full health. 

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Kittle will play his fourth game back for the 49ers from injured reserve and now be nine weeks removed from a hamstring injury. He is undervalued in the market because of the injury and being less efficient immediately upon his return. However, a key stat is Kittle is averaging over 19 air yards per target since his return, meaning he is being used on explosive plays and his output expectations should be about 10 yards higher. 

The 49ers are also still without WRs Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk; and while the reporting on their injury return is promising, they won't return this week. Kittle will have to be a factor in a potentially high output game in Rams at 49ers.

Bet: George Kittle over 45.5 receiving yards

Detroit Lions (-8, 49) at Washington Commanders

Jacob: Back in Week 5, the Commanders went out to Los Angeles and completely shut down Justin Herbert, holding the Chargers’ quarterback to 166 passing yards.

Turns out, that was a massive outlier performance by the secondary. Because here are the yardage totals produced by the other seven quarterbacks who have faced Washington since Week 2:

• 292 (Jordan Love)

• 289 (Geno Smith)

• 313 (Michael Penix Jr.)

• 252 (Caleb Williams)

• 264 (Dak Prescott)

• 299 (Patrick Mahomes)

• 330 (Sam Darnold)

Now the Commanders have to contend with a ticked-off Jared Goff, whose 284 yards and two TDs last week weren’t enough to lift the heavily favored Lions past Minnesota.

It was just the third time this season that Goff threw for more than 241 yards. However, the other two instances were against Chicago (334) and Cincinnati (258). The Bears and Bengals respectively rank 31st and 25th against the pass; Minnesota is seventh.

Washington? It gives up 253.6 yards per game, fourth-most in the league — barely better than the Cowboys.

Yes, there’s a chance for a shower or two in the nation’s capital Sunday afternoon. But it won’t be enough to keep Goff from shredding a beleaguered secondary.

Bet: Jared Goff over 257.5 passing yards (-115)

Fiddle: Washington's defense has been a run funnel this season. The Commanders have given up a rushing touchdown in seven of their nine games, and now get the smashmouth Detroit Lions at Ford Field while being an 8-point underdog. I think the Lions are going to have plenty of opportunities both on the ground and near the goal line, and thus I am backing David Montgomery to get in the end zone. 

Montgomery controls 70% of the work inside the 5-yard line for the Lions, and that number jumps to higher to 75% inside the 3-yard line. The best line value here is actually not one, but two touchdowns scored for Montgomery. On these long-shot wagers, I don’t recommend playing a full unit, play a quarter unit or half a unit, but the 12-1 upside is immense and legitimately strong value compared to the market. I also think Montgomery’s over 11.5 rush attempts (-110) is a solid value spot as well.

Bet: David Montgomery 2+ Touchdowns (+1200), Montgomery over 11.5 rush attempts

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 45)

Jacob: After tossing three interceptions in 17 starts in 2024, Chargers QB Justin Herbert already has seen eight errant passes land in the arms of an opponent in just nine games in 2025.

Only Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa (11 INTs each) have been more generous.

Herbert’s interception totals since pitching two clean games to begin the season: 1, 2, 1, 0, 2, 1 and 1. Yes, he’s been picked off at least once in six of his last seven contests.

This, of course, is what happens when your offensive line is in shambles and you’re constantly under duress. Herbert’s line took another massive hit last week when left tackle Joe Alt went down with a season-ending ankle injury at Tennessee.

Now here comes a ball-hawking Steelers defense that last week reminded Daniel Jones that he’s still Daniel Jones, intercepting the Colts’ reborn quarterback three times.

Bet: Justin Herbert over 0.5 INTs (-105)

Content warning: This story contains references to suicide. If you or someone you know is having thoughts of suicide and needs support now, call or text 988 or chat with the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline at 988lifeline.org.

When the news came Thursday morning, the consensus among NFL fans who knew who Marshawn Kneeland could have been distilled to a single word.

What?

Kneeland had died at the age of 24.

In these rare and unbelievable instances, what follows is an embarrassing but human calculation. Kneeland was an NFL player for the Dallas Cowboys. He had been a promising second-round draft pick in 2024 and was still reaching for his future. And just a few days earlier, we’d seen him score a euphoric touchdown off a blocked punt in a prime-time game. In a short career, it was his greatest moment, achieved in front of an audience of millions.

Now, he was gone. Eventually, we’d come to understand his departure came apparently by his own hand, according to police.

Deaths of young NFL players never make sense when they touch our ears for the first time. Kneeland, Dwayne Haskins, Khyree Jackson, Jaylon Ferguson — all in their mid-20s, all gone at a time in their lives that seemed undeniably inexplicable. And all in the last three-plus years. Each leaving us to arrive at a conclusion before we understand the circumstances of their passing: More often than not, this is not going to fit any natural order of how a life comes to an end. They were simply too young, too close to their dreams, with too much to live for.

And that’s where the blind spot exists. The one where we never really know what is going on in the lives of the athletes we are watching, writing about, speaking with, cheering for and getting to know for the first time. What we see is what we are presented with — but in every life, there are closed doors that we can’t see through. We don’t always know what mental struggles an athlete might be dealing with. We don’t know the risks they’re prepared to take in their youth. Or how they’re balancing the weight of their dream and the life that comes with it, which can often seem like having to hold up the sky for both themselves and all the people who helped them get there.

On Thursday, that was one of the conversations I ended up having with a few other executives and coaches around the league. Sorting through the how and why and the reality that we can’t know everything. Realizing there’s a sliding scale of physical trauma and mental health that can end careers but also lives. Sometimes, the physical and mental intersect and it becomes unsustainable. Others, the balance of the problem is shielded from our view and we never understand what happened. But always, we’re stunned when it takes away someone at a time that doesn’t make sense.

All of these players don’t die, either. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck retired at a time that was unthinkable in a career that might have had a Hall of Fame trajectory. Then we listened to a 29-year-old tell the world that his body was broken and his spirit had gone with it. If you had even an ounce of empathy, you understood. Just a few months ago, Detroit Lions center Frank Ragnow was one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL and seemingly on the doorstep of a significant contract extension that would have delivered him tens of millions of dollars. Instead, like Luck before him, he retired at 29 and told us what we hadn’t known: His football life was insurmountable physical pain, but his future was his family. And again, with empathy came understanding.

The point of all of this is to recognize that we don’t know what we can’t see. Sometimes that ends in a retirement that leaves us stunned. And sometimes it takes us somewhere much, much worse — as it did with Kneeland on Thursday morning. Heartbroken for his family, which had already lost his mother unexpectedly in early 2024. Anguished for a Dallas Cowboys franchise that will return from an off week Monday, only to absorb the reality that Kneeland’s locker, with the everyday trappings of a football life, will lack Marshawn sitting next to it.

Something that resonated in all of this, when I spent some time talking to people around the league was this: In some ways, it has become harder for people inside NFL franchises to know and continually connect with each other. Technology has simplified so many things that used to be complicated. But that simplification has made it easier to know less about your teammate, your neighbor in the cubicle down the aisle, your road scout who is isolated for much of the calendar year. It’s something I have noticed in 25 years of covering the NFL: How downtime for players is filled with phones and earbuds; how meetings don’t necessitate being in the same state, let alone the same room; how cafeterias have gotten a little quieter; how scouting and film sessions have been players locked into tablets and a set of headphones instead of a room full of people experiencing it as a group rather that individual bubbles moving at their own pace.

Those who have been in the NFL ranks long enough see it, too. Some of the cross-talk of doing things together has been replaced by the cold efficiency of technological advancements. Players, coaches, scouts and team employees are more connected than ever by tech — and they’re also more disconnected than ever by the convenience of it.

On Thursday, Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule came as close as anyone I’ve seen to putting words to this reality. Rhule was an NFL head coach with the Carolina Panthers. He has been a college football coach at multiple stops. He has seen the toll that an NFL life inflicts on players. He has seen the cost that college players pay to chase their dreams. One of those players, when Rhule was a head coach at Temple, took his life. His name was Adrian Robinson, and Rhule has spoken often about the regret he has lived with for not reaching out when he felt he had a chance to potentially make a difference in the end of Robinson’s life.

When Rhule held his news conference Thursday, he took the time to convey roughly 750 words about Marshawn Kneeland’s death. They had the gravity of 750,000 words. We have imbedded the entirety of those in this story with the video from Rhule’s talk with the media.

For my part, I’ll just stick with six words that have stuck with me. Six words about coming to understand that each of us is going through our own struggle in some way, and recognizing it is a matter of wanting to understand it or know it. Or maybe just offer an ear to hear it.

As Rhule put it, “You really got to unearth it.”

In Kneeland taking his life — and for so many who have died before the outside world understood their struggle — we’re left to unearth it too late. All of those deaths, and our lack of understanding how they could have happened until it was too late to prevent them … that is the whole of this tragedy.