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Before the season, the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans were clear favorites to win their respective divisions. It hasn't played out that way. 

The Texans are 5-5, in third place of the AFC South and three games behind the first-place Indianapolis Colts. The 7-3 Bills are a game-and-a-half behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East. 

The Bills have a better shot at making a run to a division title, but they can't afford to drop many more games. The good news for Buffalo is it won't face Houston at full strength. Quarterback C.J. Stroud will miss his second straight game due to a concussion. Davis Mills will take his place. Last week, the Texans needed a last-second field goal to beat the Tennessee Titans, who have the worst record in the NFL at 1-9. Mills wasn't that bad though, with 274 yards and a touchdown. He'll need to be at his best for the Texans to win and maintain some hope of staying in the playoff race. 

The other quarterback is coming off a historic game. Reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen had six touchdowns last week, three passing and three receiving. Allen now has two of three games in NFL history with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns. Otto Graham has the other, in 1954.  

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The Bills have some flaws. There isn't a lot of firepower in the passing game for Allen to work with. The defense ranks 22nd in DVOA and 19th in EPA (expected points added) per play allowed. A team that had Super Bowl dreams at the end of September finds itself with a much tougher road there now. Thursday's game is an important one to both teams, even if they haven't lived up to expectations so far this season. 

Who needs it more?

It's important for both. For the Bills, a loss Thursday puts them even further behind the Patriots in the AFC East and an all-important home game to start the playoffs. But it's hard to imagine the Bills missing the playoffs, and they could make a run as a wild-card team. The Texans, on the other hand, need to start collecting wins. They're on the fringe of the playoff race now, but a win over the Bills as an underdog would get them in the conversation. Houston needs this win for its playoff survival. 

Key players: Texans DEs Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson

The Texans probably have the best defense in the NFL. They lead the league in yards allowed and points allowed. They're among the league leaders in advanced metrics, including first in EPA allowed per play. The key to the defense could be Hunter and Anderson, a pair of fantastic pass rushers. They have 17 sacks between them. Josh Allen is a difficult quarterback to sack; he took only 14 sacks last season. His elusiveness and strength is an asset. The game could ride on whether Anderson and Hunter are able to bring down Allen when they get their chances. 

Betting market watch

This spread has been on the move, with the lookahead line of Bills -2.5, re-opening at -3.5 on Sunday afternoon. Some sharp action at -4 and -4.5 came in anticipation of Texans QB CJ Stroud being ruled out for a second straight game with a concussion — which is indeed what happened. The line is now up to Buffalo -6, and the public — not surprisingly — is all over the Bills. Both teams need this game for their respective playoff pushes, but it's a vital one for Buffalo if it's going to have a chance of catching the Patriots for the AFC East crown. — Ben Fawkes

Check out more of Ben’s work at the Yahoo Sports betting hub.

Fantasy football storylines

The Bills have been a mixed bag on the road this year — destroying the Jets and Panthers, but falling to the Falcons and Dolphins. Houston’s excellent defense presents a challenge, but obviously the Texans are still using a backup quarterback. Here are three fantasy angles to consider Thursday night:

1. Is Woody Marks ready to go off? Buffalo’s rushing defense ranks 30th in DVOA, and Sean Tucker was the latest to exploit it. Marks has been inconsistent in recent games, but he does have double-digit carries in five straight weeks as he essentially takes over the Houston backfield.

2. Who rides shotgun with Josh Allen? Although the Texans are the stingiest defense with respect to QB points allowed, Allen’s rushing equity makes him an auto-start everywhere. But the Bills like to rotate their receivers and no one is inside the Top 30 on the fantasy leaderboard. Khalil Shakir is the preferred slot option, and Tyrell Shavers popped last week (4-90-1).

3. Is Davis Mills better for Nico Collins? Houston’s top receiver is on a WR5 and WR4 run the last two weeks, in part because Mills loves to target Collins off the bus (25 looks in two games). Collins has just one Top 15 finish with C.J. Stroud this year. — Scott Pianowski

Check out more of Scott’s work at the Yahoo Sports fantasy hub.

When the Dallas Cowboys beat the Washington Commanders in Week 7, there was talk about them being playoff contenders. As it turns out, they simply beat a bad team. Dallas lost by double digits in its next two games. 

We have not learned a lesson from that. 

A Cowboys win over the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night started another round of wishcasting 4-5-1 Dallas into the playoff conversation. The Raiders are one of the NFL's worst teams and played like it on Monday night. Dallas' list of wins this season looks like the top of the 2026 NFL Draft order: Giants, Jets, Commanders, Raiders. 

If the Cowboys start getting playoff hype when they beat bad teams, just imagine the conversation if they win this week. 

The Philadelphia Eagles come to Dallas. They're 8-2 and while their offensive issues are undeniable, the defense has come alive. They've allowed 16 total points over the last two weeks to the Packers and Lions. The Eagles seems like the unhappiest good team in recent memory, but they are good. And Dallas has had trouble with good teams. 

Maybe this is the week the Cowboys win and actually deserve a spot in the playoff discussion. But until they get that quality win, Eagles -3.5 is the pick. It won't be as easy for Dallas as it was facing the Raiders. 

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Here are the rest of the picks for Week 12 of the NFL season, with all odds from BetMGM: 

Texans (+6) over Bills

The Texans will be without C.J. Stroud again, and they didn't look great with Davis Mills at the Titans last week, but the defense is fantastic. It leads the NFL in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play. The Bills' defense is 19th in that metric. Josh Allen his coming off a phenomenal game and he's always capable of carrying the Bills to an emphatic win. But it's a lot of points against a top-tier defense. 

Vikings (+6.5) over Packers

The Packers' 3-7 record against the spread is by far the worst among teams with a winning straight-up record. That tracks with what we know of the Packers, that even when they win it's never easy, even against bad teams. Last week they trailed the 2-9 Giants, who were down to their third quarterback of the season, with five minutes left. The Vikings are struggling with quarterback J.J. McCarthy failing to create much, but the Packers just don't blow out teams. 

Bears (-2.5) over Steelers

Both of these teams are in first place, and both are flawed. The Steelers have looked really bad at times, and the Bears keep surviving on close wins. The Steelers have played four road games, and while they won two, they have been significantly outgained in each of them. Add on Aaron Rodgers' wrist injury, and it's a hesitant pick for the flawed division leader that is at least playing at home. 

Bengals (+7) over Patriots

This line keeps moving. It was Patriots -5.5 last weekend, then -6 on Monday morning, -7.5 on Monday night (after Ja'Marr Chase's suspension) and went up to 8.5 late Wednesday. That turned again and is Bengals +7 as of Thursday morning. Odd. The Bengals are not good, but they can score even without Chase, and the Patriots defense isn't great. Perhaps we saw the Bengals' crash to Earth begin last week at Pittsburgh, but we'll give them one more try. 

Lions (-10.5) over Giants

The Giants deserve credit for battling. They're 2-9. They've lost five in a row. Yet, they led the Bears and Packers in the fourth quarter in each of the past two weeks. It's hard to keep that up though when there aren't any positive results. When the Lions are cooking it's impressive, and they'll want to take out some frustration on the Giants. They followed up their first three losses with wins by 31, 15 and 22 points. 

Titans (+13.5) over Seahawks

The Titans are really bad, but they've covered the spread the last two weeks. The Titans' loss to the Texans last week was their most competitive game of the season (and that counts their win over the Cardinals). The Seahawks might be the best team in the NFL (they're still No. 1 in DVOA), and the Titans are unquestionably the worst, but we'll blindly take a home underdog getting almost two touchdowns. 

Chiefs (-3.5) over Colts

The Chiefs moved from -3 to -3.5, which is significant. Oddsmakers don't like moving the spread when it's at a key number like -3. But this does seem like a good spot for the Chiefs. The Colts are coming off a bye, and that's tough to ignore, and Indianapolis is a very good team. But the Chiefs are in an urgent spot. It might be now or never for Kansas City. 

Jets (+13.5) over Ravens

Did you know the Jets have covered the spread in four of their last five games? Also, do the Jets actually get better on offense with Tyrod Taylor taking over for Justin Fields? Fields' struggles had grown to an uncomfortable level. Taylor can't be worse. It's possible the Ravens blast an undermanned Jets team, but it's another ugly double-digit underdog pick. 

Browns (+4) over Raiders

Seeing Shedeur Sanders go 4-of-16 last week has shaped this line. But now Sanders has a full week of practice repetitions, and he should be better. Maybe not great, but better. And the Raiders should not be laying four points to anyone except maybe the Titans. That Raiders' offensive line is about to get demolished by a very good Browns defense. There's more to this game than just Sanders, and just about everything else favors Cleveland. 

Jaguars (-3) over Cardinals

Last week, the weirdest line on the board was 49ers -2.5 at Cardinals. The 49ers won 41-22. This week, the weirdest line on the board is Jaguars -3 at Cardinals. Maybe there's a little too much respect for an Arizona team that has lost seven of eight games. 

Saints (-1.5) over Falcons

The Falcons' season practically ended last Sunday. They lost at home to the Panthers and found out quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is done for the season. This version of Kirk Cousins isn't saving anyone. The Saints are coming off a bye and the last time we saw them, rookie quarterback Tyler Shough did pretty well. 

Buccaneers (+6.5) over Rams

It's possible the Rams have a bit of a letdown after a massive win over the Seahawks. The Buccaneers are a good team that hasn't shown yet it can beat another good team. Their four losses are to the Eagles, Lions, Patriots and Bills. They'll want to change that narrative. The Rams are better, but the Bucs can keep it close. 

Panthers (+7) over 49ers

The Panthers are tough to predict. But the 49ers defense is not good. They've given up at least 400 yards four times in their last seven games and more than 350 yards in another. The Panthers had a great offensive game at Atlanta last week, and even if the 49ers take a lead, the backdoor cover will be open for Carolina. 

Last week: 7-6-2

Season to date: 88-74-4

Bryan M. Bennett via Getty Images

What a week to be a Buffalo Bills fan! You might think I'm referring to their massive Week 11 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wherein Josh Allen scored a whopping six touchdowns but I am, of course, actually referring to the upcoming premiere of Holiday Touchdown: A Bills Love Story on the Hallmark Channel this Saturday. The Hallmark x NFL collab features cameos from coach Sean McDermott and players like Damar Hamlin, Dawson Knox and many others. Oh, you came here strictly for gameinformation? The 7-3 Bills are headed to NRG Stadium on Nov. 20 for a Week 12 Thursday Night Football game against the 5-5 Houston Texans.

The Bills vs. Texans game will stream live nationally on Amazon Prime Video tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET. Keep reading to find out what you need to know about Thursday's game, and the rest of the Week 12 schedule. 

How to watch the Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans game:

Date: Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

Coverage start time: 7 p.m. ET 

Kickoff time: 8:15 p.m. ET/5:15 p.m. PT

Game: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

Location: NRG Stadium, Houston

Streaming:Prime Video

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans game channel:

The Bills visit the Texans tonight, Nov. 20, for the next Thursday Night Football game of the season, streaming on Amazon's Prime Video. 

How to watch Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

NFL Week 12 schedule:

All times Eastern.

Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

• Bills vs. Texans: 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025

• Patriots vs. Bengals: 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

• Vikings vs. Packers: 1:00 p.m.(FOX)

• Jets vs. Ravens: 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

• Steelers vs. Bears: 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

• Giants vs. Lions: 1:00 p.m.(FOX)

• Colts vs. Chiefs: 1:00 p.m.(CBS)

• Seahawks vs. Titans: 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

• Jaguars vs. Cardinals 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

• Eagles vs. Cowboys: 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

• Browns vs. Raiders: 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

• Falcons vs. Saints: 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

• Buccaneers vs. Rams: 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

• Panthers vs. 49ers: 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)