How the Seahawks have transformed into one of the most efficient offenses, becoming a source of fantasy football value
The Seattle Seahawks have been one of the surprise offenses from the 2025 NFL season. Seattle has scored on 47% of its drives through five weeks, ranking seventh in the NFL, and has the second-highest explosive play rate at 13.6%.
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There was considerable skepticism from large swaths of the NFL media regarding how the Seahawks handled their offseason, specifically the decision to replace Geno Smith with Sam Darnold and go all-in on Klint Kubiak as the playcaller. Through five weeks, their decision-making looks like a slam dunk, especially when you take a look at what’s happening with the Raiders' offense, which has scored on 31.5% of its drives, ranking 30th in the league.
Seattle has turned into one of the most efficient attacks in the NFL, and it’s become a source of fantasy football value at every level of the attack — from the big-name star all the way down to the role players.
Let’s start at the top with that big-name star, which at this point, is without question their best player, Jaxon Smith-Nijgba. The Seahawks wideout is pacing the NFL in yards per route run, as he’s the only NFL receiver over 4.0 yards per route run on the season. He’s at an outrageous 4.97 yards per route vs. man coverage this season, which leads the NFL. This isn’t new; from Week 10 on last season, Smith-Njigba ranked first in yards per route run vs. man coverage with 4.56.
Bold prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league in receiving yards in 2025 after having his breakout year last season, where he led all WRs with 4.56 yards per route run vs. man coverage from Week 10 on (minimum 200 routes). pic.twitter.com/J7nMczhuFt
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) February 4, 2025
He’s an excellent receiver who has taken some of the iso route running skills he learned to be a slot demon and has now transitioned those to the perimeter. JSN has gone from being a 67.6% and 77.4% slot player in Years 1 and 2 to taking just 21.7% of his snaps inside this season. Among the top-12 wide receivers in fantasy, he has the fifth-lowest slot rate so far.
Smith-Njigba isn’t just running quick routes, either. No wide receiver has been more impactful on deep post routes this season. These downfield in-breakers off play-action are staples of the Kubiak offense and while JSN isn’t built like some of the classic X-receivers of old we remember on these shot plays, he’s been just as lights out as some of his predecessors.
JSN has been cooking on these big post routes vs man coverage pic.twitter.com/afXhYL2IEX
— Matthew Harmon (@RPFilmClips) September 25, 2025
When Darnold throws to Smith-Njigba off play-action this season, he sports a 152.1 passer rating and an outrageous 24 yards per completion. Smith-Njigba averages 43.2 yards per game off play action in 2025; no one else on Seattle is higher than 12.6.
The Darnold to JSN connection has been one of the most fruitful in the league so far. The receiver deserves a huge chunk of the credit, but Darnold himself has played excellent football. Darnold is third in EPA per dropback and second in success rate this season. He’s been even more efficient this season than he was in his revival year under Kevin O’Connell in 2024. There are several times per game where you see Kubiak dial up a concept that requires major faith in the passer to execute; Darnold is not running some cookie-cutter guardrail offense. These two have a history dating back to Darnold’s year as the 49ers backup in 2023, when Kubiak was the non-play-calling offensive coordinator and that trust shows up in how the offense is called.
Darnold's play and the fact that JSN has been operating at an elite level have allowed other role players to shine. While they don’t have another star in the passing game, they’re littered with useful players.
Cooper Kupp is a big name and even though he’s taken a clear backseat to Smith-Njigba, he is perfectly used in this offense. Kupp lines up in the slot and even tight to the line of scrimmage at times. It looks much more like his early Rams’ days when he blurred the line between power slot and move tight end. Kupp’s blocking ability allows them to run 11 personnel while not being predictable from a run/pass split perspective. He is also a perfect easy button for Darnold as a check and release option against zone coverage in the flats.
As a receiver, he doesn’t have a voluminous role but he can show up big for the offense as a chain-mover underneath. Kupp ranks 22nd out of 77 qualified receivers in first downs per route run on throws of 1-10 air yards between the numbers this season. A steady option in the short area is all they need. He won’t be consistently productive but will have his moments, particularly against zone-heavy defenses.
Folks who followed my work during the NFL Draft know that I was a massive fan of Tory Horton, who I ranked as an early Day 2 talent and called the best true sleeper in the class in his Reception Perception profile. He fell to the fifth round because of an injury his final year in college but he can play.
One of my favorite picks on Day 3 was Tory Horton to the Seattle Seahawks pic.twitter.com/mGJVmCJCpT
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 27, 2025
We’re already seeing that talent in Seattle. Horton has run a route on 56% of the Seahawks’ dropbacks this season, which is fourth on the team. His playing time is always going to be a bit sporadic as the deep-threat flanker, based on matchups and the game plan, because this team runs a healthy diet of multiple tight end sets — more on that in a moment. They’re 31st in the NFL in 11 personnel. Horton is second on the team with three touchdowns, has caught nine of 14 looks and leads the team in air yards per target.
Horton has been a valuable asset to this offense and has produced when called upon. However, he would need to overtake Kupp in two-receiver sets to be a weekly fantasy consideration. In my view, he has the talent to do so, but that might be more of a 2026 proposition. For now, he is someone you should be glad you took in your dynasty rookie drafts.
Let’s talk about the tight ends on this team. Rookie Elijah Arroyo has flashed some real ability this season. He’s been impactful as a move option. He’s caught four of seven targets as an in-line tight end. Arroyo has run 14 routes as an outside receiver this season and while he has only caught one pass for 10 yards from that alignment, you can see his movement skills and ability to eventually become a real threat when moved around the formation.
STIFF throw by for Elijah Arroyo at the bottom of the screen against Lavonte David. Little bit of oomph after the catch too pic.twitter.com/ZEWKV3jAbv
— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) October 8, 2025
Arroyo is another dynasty-based option because for the time being, he’s not even the TE1 on his own team. And I’m not sure I see AJ Barner giving up that gig any team soon. Barner is currently a top-10 tight end in fantasy on the back of his team-high four touchdowns. He is highly likely to slow down from a scoring perspective but he isn’t going to lose his role.
Barner has been on the field for 79% of the team’s snaps this season, which is the 12th-highest at the tight end position. The best way to locate these sleeper types at the position is to identify who is going to simply be on the field the most because they are useful as a receiver but integral to the offense as an in-line blocker. This is how we found our way to Tucker Kraft last season. Barner may not have the same athletic ability as Kraft to split out but he’s a huge target at 6-foot-6, 250-plus pounds and isn’t a stiff.
Barner has taken just 8% of his snaps from the slot and 2.7% from out wide. He’s a throwback, true in-line tight end. All of his production has come from the in-line tight end spot. He’s a potent blocker and helps weaponize their outside zone run game, while serving as a more than credible receiving option, so he doesn't set off any play-calling tendency alarms when he's on the field. It’s a critical, locked-in role in the Kubiak offense that he will not be surrendering.
Barner’s 64.6% route participation is the lowest among all top-15 fantasy tight ends, which is why we have to bake in some level of possible scoring regression. At the same time, Barner is a good player in his second season with the traits and skills we look for in real-deal NFL tight ends. If you asked whether I’m buying or selling his long-term outlook, I’d be buying.
Lastly, let’s discuss the running game, which might be the hottest topic in the fantasy football community surrounding this team.
While the passing game under Kubiak has been excellent right from the jump, the unit the offense is based on, the rushing attack, has been a little more middle-of-the-pack. Seattle ranks 18th in rushing success rate on its running back runs, 19th in EPA per rush and is one of 12 NFL teams with fewer than 4.0 yards per carry. The offensive line has been a bit better than expected as a unit overall, outside of a disastrous right guard spot, and they rank 13th in yards before contact per rush attempt. The outside zone system can take some time to get all the linemen on the same page from a chemistry perspective and this group should get better the deeper the season goes.
When it comes to the running backs, I hate to break it to fantasy gamers, but both Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet have their roles to play.
Walker is clearly the more explosive back, overall. Anyone with eyeballs can see that. He’s gifted in ways that Chabonnet just cannot match, and he’s taken to the outside zone system well. Walker has been a menace on runs through the C and D gaps (off the tackle) this season with 6.41 yards per carry, per Fantasy Points Data. On outside zone runs, in particular, he has a 5.41 yards per carry to 1.27 for Charbonnet. There’s just no comparison between these two guys when it comes to breakaway runs.
However, on inside zone runs, Charbonnet has a 52.4% success rate, which dwarfs Walker’s 33.3%. The Seahawks haven’t just been running the old Shanahan/Kubiak hits in the ground game either, as they’ve mixed in some gap runs, which have been quite productive for this team. On those plays, there is little to no discernible difference in the efficiency metrics for the two backs.
On top of that, Charbonnet has been on the field in obvious passing situations and late downs. Charbonnet has played 36 snaps on third or fourth down this season and run 16 routes to seven and four for Walker. The team just trusts Charbonnet in these situations and this is the primary reason he’s not going away.
So while this is frustrating for Walker fantasy managers, it’s pretty easy to see why Charbonnet retains a role in this backfield, even if K9 is the clear lead dog, when you simply look beyond the hollow metric of overall yards per carry. Yet, I can offer a clear way to make this feel a bit better to the frustrated Walker bag holders, who still have a strong RB2 in the Seahawks back, and even make a case that this is good for him. The NFL season is long and we’re only in Week 6. Walker has yet to play a full NFL season and has dealt with nagging injuries, even just this past summer. If you want Walker to be around for your teams for the long term, it’s probably better that he’s not absorbing 20-plus touches of punishment every single week, as Charbonnet takes a handful of grinder carries away every week. Think about the big picture here and try to remember that Walker is still the RB17 on the season. It’s not that bad.
This is an effective committee for the Seahawks running backs and it leans toward Walker’s favor. If this run game continues to trend up, it’ll boost the scoring floor and ceiling for both backs, especially when the defense gets healthier on the back-end and they’re about to control more run-heavy game scripts. As long as both are healthy, Walker remains a high-ceiling, middling floor RB2 while Charbonnet is a solid “what the heck" flex play. Should either miss time, the other vaults way up the board. Remember, it’s a long season.
The Seahawks weren’t a favorite nomination for many as one of the value offenses in the NFL this season. Through six weeks, they look like one of the best. It’s a well-coached and organized offense that’s getting the best out of its talent at all levels — from the top of the board with a rising superstar wideout, one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL and all the way down to a collection of strong role players.