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Sports

How the Seahawks have transformed into one of the most efficient offenses, becoming a source of fantasy football value

Details
09 October 2025

The Seattle Seahawks have been one of the surprise offenses from the 2025 NFL season. Seattle has scored on 47% of its drives through five weeks, ranking seventh in the NFL, and has the second-highest explosive play rate at 13.6%. 

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There was considerable skepticism from large swaths of the NFL media regarding how the Seahawks handled their offseason, specifically the decision to replace Geno Smith with Sam Darnold and go all-in on Klint Kubiak as the playcaller. Through five weeks, their decision-making looks like a slam dunk, especially when you take a look at what’s happening with the Raiders' offense, which has scored on 31.5% of its drives, ranking 30th in the league.

Seattle has turned into one of the most efficient attacks in the NFL, and it’s become a source of fantasy football value at every level of the attack — from the big-name star all the way down to the role players.

Let’s start at the top with that big-name star, which at this point, is without question their best player, Jaxon Smith-Nijgba. The Seahawks wideout is pacing the NFL in yards per route run, as he’s the only NFL receiver over 4.0 yards per route run on the season. He’s at an outrageous 4.97 yards per route vs. man coverage this season, which leads the NFL. This isn’t new; from Week 10 on last season, Smith-Njigba ranked first in yards per route run vs. man coverage with 4.56.

Bold prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league in receiving yards in 2025 after having his breakout year last season, where he led all WRs with 4.56 yards per route run vs. man coverage from Week 10 on (minimum 200 routes). pic.twitter.com/J7nMczhuFt

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) February 4, 2025

He’s an excellent receiver who has taken some of the iso route running skills he learned to be a slot demon and has now transitioned those to the perimeter. JSN has gone from being a 67.6% and 77.4% slot player in Years 1 and 2 to taking just 21.7% of his snaps inside this season. Among the top-12 wide receivers in fantasy, he has the fifth-lowest slot rate so far.

Smith-Njigba isn’t just running quick routes, either. No wide receiver has been more impactful on deep post routes this season. These downfield in-breakers off play-action are staples of the Kubiak offense and while JSN isn’t built like some of the classic X-receivers of old we remember on these shot plays, he’s been just as lights out as some of his predecessors.

JSN has been cooking on these big post routes vs man coverage pic.twitter.com/afXhYL2IEX

— Matthew Harmon (@RPFilmClips) September 25, 2025

When Darnold throws to Smith-Njigba off play-action this season, he sports a 152.1 passer rating and an outrageous 24 yards per completion. Smith-Njigba averages 43.2 yards per game off play action in 2025; no one else on Seattle is higher than 12.6.

The Darnold to JSN connection has been one of the most fruitful in the league so far. The receiver deserves a huge chunk of the credit, but Darnold himself has played excellent football. Darnold is third in EPA per dropback and second in success rate this season. He’s been even more efficient this season than he was in his revival year under Kevin O’Connell in 2024. There are several times per game where you see Kubiak dial up a concept that requires major faith in the passer to execute; Darnold is not running some cookie-cutter guardrail offense. These two have a history dating back to Darnold’s year as the 49ers backup in 2023, when Kubiak was the non-play-calling offensive coordinator and that trust shows up in how the offense is called.

Darnold's play and the fact that JSN has been operating at an elite level have allowed other role players to shine. While they don’t have another star in the passing game, they’re littered with useful players.

Cooper Kupp is a big name and even though he’s taken a clear backseat to Smith-Njigba, he is perfectly used in this offense. Kupp lines up in the slot and even tight to the line of scrimmage at times. It looks much more like his early Rams’ days when he blurred the line between power slot and move tight end. Kupp’s blocking ability allows them to run 11 personnel while not being predictable from a run/pass split perspective. He is also a perfect easy button for Darnold as a check and release option against zone coverage in the flats.

As a receiver, he doesn’t have a voluminous role but he can show up big for the offense as a chain-mover underneath. Kupp ranks 22nd out of 77 qualified receivers in first downs per route run on throws of 1-10 air yards between the numbers this season. A steady option in the short area is all they need. He won’t be consistently productive but will have his moments, particularly against zone-heavy defenses.

Folks who followed my work during the NFL Draft know that I was a massive fan of Tory Horton, who I ranked as an early Day 2 talent and called the best true sleeper in the class in his Reception Perception profile. He fell to the fifth round because of an injury his final year in college but he can play.

One of my favorite picks on Day 3 was Tory Horton to the Seattle Seahawks pic.twitter.com/mGJVmCJCpT

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 27, 2025

We’re already seeing that talent in Seattle. Horton has run a route on 56% of the Seahawks’ dropbacks this season, which is fourth on the team. His playing time is always going to be a bit sporadic as the deep-threat flanker, based on matchups and the game plan, because this team runs a healthy diet of multiple tight end sets — more on that in a moment. They’re 31st in the NFL in 11 personnel. Horton is second on the team with three touchdowns, has caught nine of 14 looks and leads the team in air yards per target.

Horton has been a valuable asset to this offense and has produced when called upon. However, he would need to overtake Kupp in two-receiver sets to be a weekly fantasy consideration. In my view, he has the talent to do so, but that might be more of a 2026 proposition. For now, he is someone you should be glad you took in your dynasty rookie drafts.

Let’s talk about the tight ends on this team. Rookie Elijah Arroyo has flashed some real ability this season. He’s been impactful as a move option. He’s caught four of seven targets as an in-line tight end. Arroyo has run 14 routes as an outside receiver this season and while he has only caught one pass for 10 yards from that alignment, you can see his movement skills and ability to eventually become a real threat when moved around the formation.

STIFF throw by for Elijah Arroyo at the bottom of the screen against Lavonte David. Little bit of oomph after the catch too pic.twitter.com/ZEWKV3jAbv

— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) October 8, 2025

Arroyo is another dynasty-based option because for the time being, he’s not even the TE1 on his own team. And I’m not sure I see AJ Barner giving up that gig any team soon. Barner is currently a top-10 tight end in fantasy on the back of his team-high four touchdowns. He is highly likely to slow down from a scoring perspective but he isn’t going to lose his role.

Barner has been on the field for 79% of the team’s snaps this season, which is the 12th-highest at the tight end position. The best way to locate these sleeper types at the position is to identify who is going to simply be on the field the most because they are useful as a receiver but integral to the offense as an in-line blocker. This is how we found our way to Tucker Kraft last season. Barner may not have the same athletic ability as Kraft to split out but he’s a huge target at 6-foot-6, 250-plus pounds and isn’t a stiff.

Barner has taken just 8% of his snaps from the slot and 2.7% from out wide. He’s a throwback, true in-line tight end. All of his production has come from the in-line tight end spot. He’s a potent blocker and helps weaponize their outside zone run game, while serving as a more than credible receiving option, so he doesn't set off any play-calling tendency alarms when he's on the field. It’s a critical, locked-in role in the Kubiak offense that he will not be surrendering.

Barner’s 64.6% route participation is the lowest among all top-15 fantasy tight ends, which is why we have to bake in some level of possible scoring regression. At the same time, Barner is a good player in his second season with the traits and skills we look for in real-deal NFL tight ends. If you asked whether I’m buying or selling his long-term outlook, I’d be buying.

Lastly, let’s discuss the running game, which might be the hottest topic in the fantasy football community surrounding this team.

While the passing game under Kubiak has been excellent right from the jump, the unit the offense is based on, the rushing attack, has been a little more middle-of-the-pack. Seattle ranks 18th in rushing success rate on its running back runs, 19th in EPA per rush and is one of 12 NFL teams with fewer than 4.0 yards per carry. The offensive line has been a bit better than expected as a unit overall, outside of a disastrous right guard spot, and they rank 13th in yards before contact per rush attempt. The outside zone system can take some time to get all the linemen on the same page from a chemistry perspective and this group should get better the deeper the season goes.

When it comes to the running backs, I hate to break it to fantasy gamers, but both Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet have their roles to play.

Walker is clearly the more explosive back, overall. Anyone with eyeballs can see that. He’s gifted in ways that Chabonnet just cannot match, and he’s taken to the outside zone system well. Walker has been a menace on runs through the C and D gaps (off the tackle) this season with 6.41 yards per carry, per Fantasy Points Data. On outside zone runs, in particular, he has a 5.41 yards per carry to 1.27 for Charbonnet. There’s just no comparison between these two guys when it comes to breakaway runs.

However, on inside zone runs, Charbonnet has a 52.4% success rate, which dwarfs Walker’s 33.3%. The Seahawks haven’t just been running the old Shanahan/Kubiak hits in the ground game either, as they’ve mixed in some gap runs, which have been quite productive for this team. On those plays, there is little to no discernible difference in the efficiency metrics for the two backs.

On top of that, Charbonnet has been on the field in obvious passing situations and late downs. Charbonnet has played 36 snaps on third or fourth down this season and run 16 routes to seven and four for Walker. The team just trusts Charbonnet in these situations and this is the primary reason he’s not going away.

So while this is frustrating for Walker fantasy managers, it’s pretty easy to see why Charbonnet retains a role in this backfield, even if K9 is the clear lead dog, when you simply look beyond the hollow metric of overall yards per carry. Yet, I can offer a clear way to make this feel a bit better to the frustrated Walker bag holders, who still have a strong RB2 in the Seahawks back, and even make a case that this is good for him. The NFL season is long and we’re only in Week 6. Walker has yet to play a full NFL season and has dealt with nagging injuries, even just this past summer. If you want Walker to be around for your teams for the long term, it’s probably better that he’s not absorbing 20-plus touches of punishment every single week, as Charbonnet takes a handful of grinder carries away every week. Think about the big picture here and try to remember that Walker is still the RB17 on the season. It’s not that bad.

This is an effective committee for the Seahawks running backs and it leans toward Walker’s favor. If this run game continues to trend up, it’ll boost the scoring floor and ceiling for both backs, especially when the defense gets healthier on the back-end and they’re about to control more run-heavy game scripts. As long as both are healthy, Walker remains a high-ceiling, middling floor RB2 while Charbonnet is a solid “what the heck" flex play. Should either miss time, the other vaults way up the board. Remember, it’s a long season.

The Seahawks weren’t a favorite nomination for many as one of the value offenses in the NFL this season. Through six weeks, they look like one of the best. It’s a well-coached and organized offense that’s getting the best out of its talent at all levels — from the top of the board with a rising superstar wideout, one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL and all the way down to a collection of strong role players.

Read more …

2025 NFL trade deadline: 8 teams and 9 players to watch, including Ravens (Mark Andrews) and Giants (Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston)

Details
09 October 2025

For the first time since 2014, we’ve entered Week 6 of the NFL season with zero undefeated teams remaining on the board. Much like that season — which boasted five 12-4 franchises and a 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers team that qualified for the playoffs — parity has gripped the league and muddled the Super Bowl picture.

The historically elite Kansas City Chiefs? They’re 2-3 and wheezing on offense.

The annually downtrodden Indianapolis Colts? They’re 4-1 and have the widest point differential in the league (+74).

The Detroit Lions are on pace to score nearly 600 points, while the Baltimore Ravens are on pace to surrender more than 600.

And seemingly everyone is interested in trading, with 11 different teams consummating seven deals through five weeks of the season.

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That’s a lot of early activity. Typically the NFL trade market doesn’t get really interesting until mid-October, when teams start to see their holes more clearly and assess the opportunities to patch them with pieces from other rosters. Take last season for example. Unlike this year, there wasn’t a single in-season trade completed prior to Oct. 15. Then the dam let loose, with 19 deals executed by the Nov. 5 deadline.

Much like unfathomable futility, widespread parity also tends to drive teams to the trade table. And this year — with no clearly dominant teams rising to the surface after five weeks — some will be looking for an edge that can separate them from the ranks of good-but-not-great. There’s also a fair share of candidates to feast on, with eight teams sitting at 1-4 or worse heading into Week 6.

With that in mind, here’s a look at eight teams that could be deadline sellers and their likely top draw on the block when we get deeper into the dealmaking zone this month …

Baltimore Ravens: Tight end Mark Andrews

Outside linebacker Odafe Oweh would have been the candidate here, but he was flipped to the Los Angeles Chargers earlier this week in a move that hints the Ravens will be open for business going into the trade deadline. Most especially if they drop Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Rams and sink to 1-5. Conversely, if the Ravens can right themselves over the next few weeks, they could flip into deadline buyers with the salary cap flexibility that was opened up by the Oweh deal.

If they’re sellers, I think it’s Andrews who will get some calls.

Tight end was a popular spot at least year’s deadline, with teams like the Denver Broncos and Chargers making calls to try and add a mismatch opportunity to their playoff rosters. That could be the case again at this deadline, albeit with different teams. Andrews is in the final year of a four-year, $56 million extension. Given his limited impact thus far and turning 31 next season, he’s a likely free agency departure in March.

Keep a close eye on the Rams and Seattle Seahawks for a tight end rental down the stretch.

Cleveland Browns: Tight end David Njoku

Cornerback Greg Newsome would have been at the top of this list had he not been dealt to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Wednesday. I thought the Lions might make a call on Newsome this week with the Terrion Arnold shoulder injury initially looking like it might be season-ending. That prognosis got better and it removed the need for cornerback push.

Even after moving Newsome and quarterback Joe Flacco, I don’t think the Browns are done quite yet.

Cleveland has several candidates worthy of moving at the deadline who would otherwise be heading to free agency in the offseason. That reality has only strengthened by a strong rookie class that looks capable of stepping in and playing at a high level for cheap salaries. One of the rookies is tight end Harold Fannin Jr., who came out of the gates strong and immediately opened the possibility of the Browns dealing Njoku at the deadline. Interestingly, the Browns got some trade interest in Njoku last year at the deadline, but refused to part with him. This time around, they have his replacement in hand and a tight salary cap situation to deal with in the offseason. Like Andrews, I could see Njoku getting calls again at this deadline.

Las Vegas Raiders: Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers

Of all the potential trades at the deadline, this one seems like a layup. Meyers wanted a contract extension in the offseason and didn’t get it from the new regime. He then requested a trade, which head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Spytek effectively ignored. With the Raiders’ quarterback issues and an offensive line that is a root problem of Las Vegas’ productivity, ignoring deadline interest in Meyers wouldn’t make sense. He’s leaving in free agency and there are always a handful of teams looking for serviceable wide receiver help at the deadline.

If they’re in the thick of things near the end of October, I’d keep an eye on the Arizona Cardinals who have a need at their No. 2 wide receiver spot. Don’t rule out the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers and several other franchises that could look to help their quarterbacks with a wide receiver rental down the stretch.

Miami Dolphins: Outside linebacker Bradley Chubb

The wheels feel like they’re ready to come off in Miami after last weekend’s collapse to Carolina after leading 17-0. With the Dolphins sinking fast, it could actually have a chilling effect when it comes to trades, largely because there is a possibility that ownership engages in a clean sweep round of firings that ultimately gut the coaching staff and front office. If that specter is looming, there’s little logic in trading away veteran players for draft capital that the coaching staff and front office knows it will never be able to use.

Think of it like the New York Jets last year. They could have moved multiple players at the deadline and didn’t, largely because there was little motivation to do so. Everyone in the building thought they were getting fired.

If that sense hasn’t sunken in for the Dolphins’ braintrust yet — or if ownership directs some salary dumping in the face of a total reboot in the offseason — the team still has plenty of talent to be popular on the trade deadline speed dial.

The  29-year old Chubb is one of the more intriguing targets as he plays out the last year of his deal in Miami. He’s still providing a pass rush impact in Miami and can be a quality starter elsewhere so long as he stays healthy. There’s little doubt he’s departing in free agency, and adding pass rush help for a playoff run is an automatic conversation starter for virtually every team in the league.

New Orleans Saints: Wide receiver Rashid Shaheed

Everyone is going to point to running back Alvin Kamara as the top deadline candidate in New Orleans, but that’s not the sense I’ve gotten picking the brains of some personnel sources across the league this week. Instead, I think there’s a growing belief that Kamara is nearing fumes at this point — especially where it concerns his ability to create explosive plays in the running game. He hasn’t had a run of longer than 27 yards since the 2021 season, and his receiving productivity has bottomed out to an all-time low in 2025.

That said, the Saint who has caught the eye of talent evaluators is Shaheed, who has played a very serviceable second fiddle to Chris Olave this season and also shown a history of providing explosive plays when he’s healthy. Of course, he’s never played a full season in his four years in the league, so health continues to be a concern. But the upside of Shaheed that is attractive to teams is that he turned 27 in August and should have a good window of prime years still on the table.

He’s currently on a one-year, $5.2 million deal and becomes an unrestricted free agent in March. If he plays out the entire season with good health, he will have a solid free-agent market waiting for him. Teams are always looking for explosive receivers to give them an adrenaline shot down the stretch.

From a test-run standpoint, Shaheed will be an intriguing trade target that could be coveted by teams targeting a long-term No. 2 next offseason.

New York Giants: Quarterbacks Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston

You’re going to see edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux on a lot of speculative trade deadline lists like these. But talking to people around the league, I do not get any sense whatsoever that the Giants are going to be interested in unloading him at this deadline. He’s under contractural control through 2026 and looks like he’s turning the corner on the field this season. Yes, the Giants drafted Abdul Carter and it creates some flexibility to move Thibodeaux, but the assessment that his value is at its highest at this trade deadline is incorrect. In reality, if he continues his current trajectory, his highest value will be next offseason. He’ll be exiting 2025 on an upswing, and pass-rush needy teams will have the ability to deal for Thibodeaux and then acclimate him into their defensive system over several months.

Also, the Giants still have no idea what they have in Carter at this early juncture. Keeping Thibodeaux in the fold preserves their options along the defensive line.

So who does that leave? If Jaxson Dart is still the starting quarterback in late October — which I fully expect he will be — it makes no sense for the Giants to sit on both of their veteran backups in Wilson and Winston. Of course, if nobody wants either of them, then the Giants’ hands are tied. But I would expect New York to aggressively float the availability of either heading into the deadline, in hopes of landing a late-round draft pick.

It’s worth noting, Winston is actually signed through 2026 and has been the model backup quarterback at multiple stops. Wilson is signed through only 2025 and there is little doubt he still wants to remain a starter. The move here would be to prioritize the dumping of Wilson rather than Winston. But the buyer sets the trade market here, so the Giants have to be open to anything.

New York Jets: Running back Breece Hall

The Jets are off to the kind of start where virtually any veteran on the roster without a significant dead cap hit is available for calls. That basically eliminates wideout Garrett Wilson, cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. Outside of the new regime’s 2025 draft class, I’m not sure there’s a player on the roster who wouldn’t be available going into this deadline.

That’s what a reboot looks like, and the 0-5 start is very suggestive of the next offseason being the next leg of a massive overhaul. It’s not exactly what Jets fans want to hear, but here we are.

While I don’t think the Jets are going to run around the league pushing Hall’s availability, I don’t think he’s written into the team’s long-term plans, either. Granted, he’s shown an uptick in production this season after several consecutive years of diminishing returns, but I don’t think it has been enough for the Jets to offer him the long-term extension that never came last offseason. He hasn’t proven to be a unicorn running back, so his next contract is going to be challenging for whoever signs him as a free agent in March.

The one complication to a trade for the Jets is the recent knee injury of Braelon Allen. Had the Jets traded Hall, Allen would have been the natural successor to carry the load. Now Allen is sidelined for as long as the next three months — and possibly the season — which makes keeping Hall a necessity unless New York is willing to flush the running game and lean into eventually earning the No. 1 pick in the draft.

This will be an interesting one to watch unfold.

Tennessee Titans: Defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons

I’m not quite sure what to make of the reimagined front office of the Titans just yet, so that leaves a lot of options on the table. I don’t see them taking away anything from quarterback Cam Ward, who is the top focus of getting the franchise anchored. That eliminates draining the offense with any moves, unless there’s a concerted effort to open up some opportunities for, say, rookie tight end Gunnar Helm, who could end up being a big bright spot from the 2025 draft.

What I am sure of is that Simmons turns 29 before next season and he’s playing on a contract extension that really has one good opportunity to hold out and push for an adjustment. That opportunity comes this offseason, with a likely change in the coaching staff and the front office either seeking some stability with veterans or trading away big contracts in a remodeling effort.

Simmons has a very tradable deal — both at this deadline and in the coming offseason. His level of play is still high enough to interest suitors and draw a solid draft pick in return. If the Titans signal they’re open to moving Simmons, I think they’d get interest from more than one trade partner.

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Matt Milano will not practice for Bills on Thursday with pectoral injury

Details
09 October 2025

The Bills will not have one of their key defenders on the field for their first practice of Week 6.

Head coach Sean McDermott told reporters in his press conference that linebacker Matt Milano will not practice on Thursday due to his pectoral injury.

Milano has been dealing with a pectoral injury for a few weeks. He started last Sunday's loss to the Patriots but had to exit during the contest.

Rookie defensive tackle T.J. Sanders also will not practice due to a knee injury.

Left tackle Dion Dawkins (hand), defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle), and linebacker Dorian Williams (knee) will be limited in the day’s practice.

McDermott noted Buffalo will not open the practice windows for any injured reserve players this week — cornerback Max Kristen, offensive tackle Tylan Grable, or kicker Tyler Bass.

The Bills will be on the road to play the Falcons on Monday night.

Read more …

More Articles …

  1. Fantasy Football Full PPR Rankings: Justin Boone's FLEX rankings for Week 6
  2. Fantasy Football Full PPR Rankings: Justin Boone's top tight ends for Week 6
  3. Fantasy Football Week 6 Full PPR Running Back Rankings
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