FLEX Finder Week 10: Christian Watson and Darius Slayton join the repeat recommend club
(Incredulous voice) You're not going to believe it, but when the small potatoes shop hits Mark Andrews and Colston Loveland and Kyle Monangai in the same week, it feels pretty good about itself. We had a few folds: Brashard Smith looks like he'll never be a real boy and Darnell Mooney feels like he's the fourth receiver on a three-man pecking order. But otherwise, we did unbelievably well in Week 9. And in Week 10, nothing could possiblye go wrong. That's the first time anything has ever went wrong, we swear.
Once again, my rules for this weekly article:
1) I will not recommend quarterbacks — you're on your own there.
2) I will not recommend any running back who costs more than $5,000, wideout who costs more than $4,500, or tight end that costs more than $4,000 in DraftKings’ DFS Slate— I just figured this was an easy cutoff for what a FLEX really is.
3) I consider any player who garners over 50 yards or scores a victory for the column — anything more you get out of that, well, great for you. Let's set expectations low because we are combing for outliers.
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▶ Running Backs
David Montgomery, DET — $5,000
Let's start by talking about Detroit's defense: They're third in the NFL in defensive DVOA. They're a little ornery after giving up real production to J.J. McCarthy last week. And they get to take it out on Homer SimpsonMarcus Mariota. The line on this game has already jumped to Lions -8 in many spots.
Mariota's Commanders scored seven points against the Chiefs on the road two Mondays ago, and they immediately trailed 38-0. My read of the game is that it is a smash spot for Detroit's running game against Washington's middle of the pack run defense. Which means that Detroit's RB2 is going to be heavily in demand.
Blake Corum, LAR — $4,600
Speaking of overmatched teams and RB2s with a chance to pop off a little bit, the 49ers are in 4.5-point dogs at home to a Rams team that already lost to Mac Jones once. I may have recommended this one either way based on Corum seemingly splitting series with Kyren Williams last week. But the Rams also piled up 456 offensive yards on the 49ers in that overtime loss. And that was before they lost Fred Warner and (now) Mykel Williams.
I'm impressed every week by the 49ers defensive coaching staff for doing what they do without their top-level guys. But this feels like a game that has plenty of offensive upside for the Rams if the 49ers fight back and one where the Rams could also turn to crockpotting the 49ers fairly easily. I have to like Corum's role in either situation, provided he doesn't do what he did last time these teams met and fumble away a ball early to get benched.
Ray Davis, BUF — $4,600
With James Cook dealing with an ankle injury on Wednesday and not practicing, and Bills coach Sean McDermott going as far as to say Cook has been sore over the last few days, I'm going to guess that Cook either plays with a more limited workload or he doesn't play at all. Either scenario is a win for Davis, because the Bills project to win by many points against the Dolphins in a game where they will run the ball a lot.
Davis' only experience as a lead back in a game that mattered came in Week 6 last season against the Jets. He went for 20/97 on the ground and 3/55 in the air. I don't think that's a likely outcome against the Dolphins, but if Cook doesn't play, I also don't think it's entirely off the table.
Devin Singletary, NYG — $4,300
Everyone assumed that this was Tyrone Tracy's backfield, but Tracy managed just 37 total yards and three catches against the 49ers in a script where the Giants trailed most of the game. Instead, Singletary essentially split carries with the youngster, and it's noteworthy to me that he was already cutting into Tracy's time when Cam Skattebo took over anyway.
Does all that mean Singletary is good, or someone you want to plug in every week? No. Does it mean you can start him against a Bears defense that has allowed 72 points in its last two games, lost EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo to a torn Achilles, and did nothing to really change the direction of the unit at the trade deadline? Yes, yes it does.
▶ Wide receivers
Christian Watson, GB — $4,200
One of two reruns I'm going with this week, and the one I am confused the most by. Tucker Kraft is now out for the season, Matthew Golden is dealing with a shoulder injury. The target tree in Green Bay is always convoluted, but the coach just had a dumb enough week to where he actually might have to think about some offensive tweaks. Watson and Romeo Doubs are the only two names in town to be trusted. And into this strolls someone who actually hit by my standards (2/58) last week and plays against an Eagles defense that has not solved the CB2 problem all season.
And he's cheaper than he was last week!
Darius Slayton, NYG — $4,300
Slayton has become the Troy Franklin that I'm actually allowed to see. While Franklin has been freed of the column and sent up the ivory tower of "more than $4,500," Slayton will always be here. Well, as long as he keeps dropping long passes every week.
I already told you about the Bears defense. Slayton was second to Wan'Dale Robinson in targets last week and hit per column standards with 5/62. I will keep adding him to lineups while he is this cheap.
Tez Johnson, TB — $4,500
Returning after a bye week, Chris Godwin looks no closer to playing than he was, Mike Evans remains down for a longer term, and Johnson is staring directly down the barrel of a Patriots run defense that creates pass funnels. New England has faced the fewest rushing attempts in the NFL and has allowed only 3.6 yards per carry, third-lowest in the league.
Meanwhile, Johnson has gone for 1/45/1, 4/58/1, and 5/43 in his last three games. It's hard to call this spot sneaky, even, it just seems like a fairly obvious heavy-throwing game that Johnson figures to be the second or third option in.
Jerry Jeudy, CLE — $3,900
The Browns changed playcallers over their bye week and their No. 1 receiver returns to the fold cheap as dirt against a Jets team that just traded their only good corner (Sauce Gardner) and has been vastly disappointing as a pass offense. If you can't start Jeudy in to this script, it's time to fire everybody.
Does that mean I'm excited about a guy who has caught nine balls in four games with Dillon Gabriel under center? It ... doesn't not mean that. I just don't see the point in taking Stefanski off play calls unless something changes here, and so I'm banking on them creating actual wideout targets.
Jaylin Lane, WAS — $3,600
The other side of the David Montgomery coin is that if the Commanders keep throwing the ball, someone has to catch it. Luke McCaffrey is on injured reserve. Terry McLaurin looks like he's not a real threat to return until after the bye week. Deebo Samuel is managing a heel injury and played only 67.7 percent of the snaps — a season low — against the Seahawks last week after the blowout commenced. Zach Ertz is the only player in the passing game that got through.
Lane tied his season high in catches and played the second-highest number of snaps in his career. There are going to be some cheap yards here and perhaps we can run into a lucky touchdown.
▶ Tight ends
Juwan Johnson, NO — $3,700
I will admit that I was one of the people on staff who thought Johnson would be banished to the shadow realm after Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau returned from injury. Instead he has posted the following lines over the last four weeks: 2/15, 5/79, 5/53, 3/31/1. His playing time has decreased slightly, but he's still getting over 70 percent of the snaps in every game.
Now that the Saints have traded away Rashid Shaheed, there is a big target vacuum. I'm sure Devaughn Vele will step into some of it, but I think the safer short-term bet is that Johnson ascends the pecking order and factors into TE1 consideration. The Panthers have had a surprisingly good run defense this year and I think the matchup helps Johnson out here too.
Cade Otton, TB — $3,900
The other non-Emeka Egbuka tight end to deal with. Otton has been up-and-down this season, but is on a streak of four or more catches and 40 or more yards in each of his last four games. I have to think this will continue without Evans and Godwin. The Patriots are a pass funnel and we play into that.
May the FLEX be forever in your favor.