NFL Panic Meter: There's no easy path out of J.J. McCarthy mess for Vikings
J.J. McCarthy's second-biggest problem might be that he couldn't develop at a reasonable pace.
McCarthy took over the quarterback role for a Vikings team that was 14-3 last season and had a good offseason. Even if expecting 14 wins again was unrealistic, another playoff berth was not. And McCarthy's miserable play has been a big part of the Vikings slipping into irrelevancy. Cam Ward hasn't produced much for the Tennessee Titans, but nobody expected the Titans to be any good and everyone has excused his poor numbers to a terrible situation. Basically, the Titans were going to stink with Ward or anyone else, so when he had a 75.7 passer rating, that was just part of the process for a young player and a rebuilding team.
McCarthy doesn't have that grace. The Vikings are 4-7, their season practically over, and everyone is pointing the finger at him.
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McCarthy's biggest problem is he has been much worse than Ward or practically anyone else, not just this season but over many other seasons. McCarthy‘s passer rating is 57.9, which is minuscule for a starting quarterback. Among QBs with at least 150 attempts, Ward is the second-worst and he's almost 18 points higher than McCarthy. Anthony Richardson Jr. has been a pretty big whiff for the Indianapolis Colts and he has a career passer rating of 67.8. Zach Wilson's worst passer rating in a season for the Jets was 69.7. JaMarcus Russell's career mark was 65.2. That's how bad McCarthy has been.
McCarthy is likely to be out this week, as he entered concussion protocol on Monday. McCarthy has been unable to stay healthy, which has been yet another problem with his short NFL career to date. If McCarthy can't play this week he'll be replaced by undrafted rookie Max Brosmer, and that might be when things get really difficult for Minnesota. If Brosmer plays very well — he did acquit himself well in the preseason — then maybe he's the Brock Purdy to McCarthy's Trey Lance and the Vikings live happily ever after. It gets complicated if Brosmer is below average, as you'd expect an undrafted rookie to be. Below average would still be better than McCarthy, and that would make McCarthy's poor play look even worse while not providing any potential solution for the future. Then the Vikings are really stuck.
It's not that unheard of anymore for a team to pull the plug early on a high draft pick. The Arizona Cardinals showed the way by trading Josh Rosen, the 10th overall pick of the NFL Draft just like McCarthy, after 13 starts as a rookie. Other teams have hit the eject button on first-round quarterbacks quickly after that. But the Cardinals had the first pick of the following draft and took Kyler Murray. The Vikings won't have the first pick. There's also no easy way out. It will be suggested that the Vikings ditch McCarthy, but that assumes there's some viable backup plan. If quarterbacks are available in March, there's a good reason. It's a rule the Raiders wish they had considered when they traded for Geno Smith. The Vikings got lucky to hit on Sam Darnold in 2024, but winning the lottery twice isn't a long-term plan.
Darnold does provide a hopeful tale though. He did not become a viable starting NFL quarterback until his seventh NFL season. McCarthy has had six career starts. He hasn't played close to an NFL level, but he's young and Kevin O'Connell is a good coach. But that hope is predicated on ignoring practically everything McCarthy has shown on the NFL level and believing there are better days ahead based on his college tape and draft pedigree.
That's a hard sell, especially considering the Vikings should still feel like they have a playoff-level roster around the quarterback going into the 2026 season. At very least, unless Brosmer has a great run or McCarthy has a strong finish, the Vikings are likely going to have to sign a veteran to compete with McCarthy, like the Colts did with Daniel Jones and Richardson. That's not ideal. Nothing about the situation is.
Panic meter: Full crisis mode
What's wrong with Saquon Barkley?
On Sunday, Barkley had 22 yards on 10 carries. None of his carries went for more than 7 yards. He lost a fumble too. The Cowboys played an extra defensive lineman most of the game and that affected the Eagles' rushing attack, but it still was a very quiet day. Another very quiet day for Barkley this season.
Barkley rushed for 125.3 yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry last season. That's down to 62.2 and 3.7 this season. All offseason, the concern about Barkley was that he had 482 touches last season and just about every other running back in recent history regressed after that type of workload. There's no need for a full investigation; the regression predicted for Barkley based off recent data has simply come to pass.
Panic meter: Unless you can spin back Barkley's 2024 odometer, there's probably no big change coming
Lamar Jackson still doesn't look right
Jackson had a hamstring injury that knocked him out for three games. The Ravens have won four games in a row since his return. Everything is great then, right? Not really.
The Ravens are winning despite Jackson looking nothing like his normal self. He did have four touchdown passes in his first game back, but the rest is very mediocre. He hasn't thrown for more than 193 yards in any of Baltimore's last three games, and has one touchdown pass and three interceptions in those three games. Jackson's rushing totals in his four games back are 14, 36, 10 and 11. That's not Jackson's game. The Ravens are winning, but they also caught a very soft stretch of the schedule. If Jackson doesn't rebound to his normal form, the Ravens still might win the AFC North but they aren't going very far in the playoffs.
Panic meter: Give Jackson the benefit of the doubt, but this slump is worth monitoring
Giants fire their defensive coordinator
It's funny, if Jake Bates' 59-yard field goal in the final minute of regulation didn't take a hard left like a Paul Skenes slider, the conversation with the New York Giants might be how interim head coach Mike Kafka has a shot at getting the job full time after a big win over the Lions. Instead, the Lions tied it on Bates' field goal and beat the Giants in overtime, then defensive coordinator Shane Bowen was fired for yet another fourth quarter collapse. Injured receiver Malik Nabers also blasted Kafka for some strategic decisionsincluding not taking a field goal late in the fourth quarter on fourth down.
It's a reminder that sometimes the entire conversation with NFL teams — and even very important decisions that shape a franchise's future — are based on single plays and the whims of an oblong ball and how it bounces. Or curves.
Panic meter: The Giants were already in shambles, so nothing really new