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NFL Week 6 Stock Up, Stock Down: Drake Maye making his case to be amongst the fantasy elite

At this point, your fantasy team either has you beating your chest, shriveling up or waiting to do either of those things. Winners win and losers lose; just ask the Bucs and the Jets about that. Speaking of the Bucs, how about Tez Johnson and Kameron Johnson filling in once Emeka Egbuka went down? Probably not enough to have them in the Stock Up version, but we’ll monitor it. I also wouldn’t be too quick to turn my back on Quinshon Judkins after a 36-yard rushing performance. Help is on the way for the Browns (when they eventually — I hope — turn to Shedeur Sanders). Other than that, let’s get to some risers and fallers after NFL Week 6.

STOCK UP

Drake Maye, QB, Patriots

I think that if we all give Maye the eye ball test you can clearly see that he’s improved a great deal, but the extent of it from a fantasy (and real football) perspective is better than we hoped. Maye has produced consistently like “one of those guys” and by guys I mean the elite fantasy guys like Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. In six games this season he has four top eight finishes. In Week 5 at Buffalo, he finished as QB25 and yet somehow played the best game of his career so far. He just happened to not get the touchdown that day. In Week 6 he put on a passing clinic against a vulnerable Saints’ secondary completing 18-of-26 passes for 261 yards and three touchdowns which was good for QB2 on the week (MNF pending). With what he also brings as a runner, Maye is solidifying himself as a top tier fantasy quarterback for the long haul.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Panthers

When you follow up a 206-yard rushing performance with an outing where you gain 239 yards from scrimmage (183 on the ground), how could you possibly go back to the bench? Now to be clear, Dowdle has had some incredible matchups (meaning the defense is bad) the past couple of weeks in the Cowboys and Dolphins, but it’s the NFL and he has delivered. Dowdle had extra motivation in Week 6 going against his former team (Dallas) and turned that into a second-straight week as the RB1 in fantasy (MNF Pending). The biggest thing now will be, how the Panthers’ divvy up the touches when Chuba Hubbard returns? Hubbard is good in his own right, but never has he had a game like the last two Dowdle has had. Nonetheless, Dowdle is the flaming hot hand in Carolina.

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals

I guess all Chase and Higgins needed was a 40-year old quarterback who entered Week 6 with two touchdowns, six interceptions and a 60.3 passer rating. That was the case as Joe Flacco easily had his best game of the season albeit in a losing effort. The difference was (rather than Jake Browning) that Flacco made Higgins and Chase relevant early and we didn’t have to wait until garbage time. Higgins wasn’t great statistically, but he caught 5-of-8 targets for 62 yards and narrowly missed getting into the endzone (stopped at the 1-yard line). Chase, on the other hand, (as he should’ve been) was Flacco’s main target from the beginning to the end with the wide receiver making a beautiful touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. Both Higgins and Chase will benefit from having a quarterback who doesn’t run around like chicken with his head cut off.

STOCK DOWN

Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles

You’re not benching Barkley nor are you thinking about it. However, he's definitely not putting up the kind of numbers managers were hoping for when they invested a top 10 pick on him. In fact, Barkley has had one weekly finish inside the top 10 fantasy running backs and that came in Week 1. In Week 6, he finished as RB19 after all of the Sunday games were played and is currently at RB14 for the season. Now, that obviously is solid, but considering he’s behind Ashton Jeanty who had a challenging first few weeks of the season is damning. The biggest difference between this season and last is that there are no big runs; Barkley has yet to have a run for 20 yards in six games. Funny enough, with a player like Barkley this can change in an instant and I believe it will. See if you can trade for Barkley in your leagues now.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs

In Week 6, a game where Patrick Mahomes threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns, Worthy was fortunate enough to catch 2-of-4 targets for 20 yards and a touchdown. Cool. In the games he’s played this season he’s averaged 48.3 receiving yards per game which is fine, but with Rashee Rice out for a whole six weeks this was his time to establish himself as a true force in the Chiefs offense and he did not, which is ok as Mahomes just simply spreads the ball around. Upon Rice’s return, Worthy will see even less of the pie and if I rostered him, I’d be trying my hardest to sell him after that little bitty touchdown he scored against the Lions. He’s going to have his days of course, but going forward he’s a FLEX player that you’ll scratch your head on every week due to the nature of the Chiefs’ offense.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders

After quietly going over 1,000 receiving yards in 2024, he’s quietly WR44 in fantasy points per game after the Week 6 Sunday games. In fact, he’s been outperformed by his running mate Tre Tucker (WR14, heavily skewed by a Week 3, 40-point game). Meyers last topped 40 receiving yards in Week 3 and that’s alarming considering Brock Bowers has missed the last two games (and played hurt before that). Meyers was thought to have high WR2 upside coming into the season with Geno Smith coming in at quarterback, but Smith’s numbers (seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions) aren’t something you want to bring home to mama either. It’s been a struggle as a whole for the Raiders’ offense this season and until that changes, Meyers is a shaky start in fantasy.

Bills vs. Falcons Monday Night Football odds, predictions: Best bets, player props

More dueling Monday Night Football games divide our attention to conclude Week 6, but unlike Week 4, both are compelling games.

In the first matchup, the Buffalo Bills will take the field trying to remember what it’s like to play on the road, as they haven’t in almost a month. Meanwhile, you’d forgive the Atlanta Falcons if their memory needs some jogging, as they haven’t played at all in 15 days.

”Rest” vs. “Road” would be a not-overly-creative headline for this inter-conference matchup, but it’s applicable to the handicap of a game where both sides are looking to make a statement to a national audience.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Buffalo Bills (-4, 50) at Atlanta Falcons

The Bills’ upset loss to the Patriots as 8-point favorites could be attributed to uncharacteristic turnovers (two fumbles and an interception), but the signs were there that Buffalo might be vulnerable.

The Bills took far too long to separate from the Dolphins and Saints for their bettors' liking, in a pair of home games where they were favored by double-digits against two of the weaker teams in the NFL. So, when a more capable group came to visit, Buffalo lost because of turnovers, but with the boxscore numbers otherwise even (yards almost equal, both teams 2-for-4 in the red zone), the Bills would have had no business covering a big number at home even without the turnovers.

An outright loss has finally forced the betting market to notice that the Bills have flaws. They ran with the Ravens as the two highest-rated teams for three weeks, but while Baltimore has bottomed out with its injuries, it’s clear that Buffalo is not notably better than some of the league’s other contenders.

If you rated the Bills on a scale of 100, their win total of 12.5 before the season would set the Bills at 70 out of 100 — the rating that made them such big favorites in Weeks 3 and 4.

After three straight non-covers, while that rating has come down, being 4-point road favorites against a capable team like the Falcons, means Buffalo’s only been downgraded into the mid-60s, despite a defense that has one of the worst EPA/play metrics against the opponent’s run game.

The Falcons have seen a similar souring from the betting market from a recent game, because a 30-0 loss at Carolina jumps off the page. Following that with a home win over the Commanders without Jayden Daniels hasn’t brought Atlanta’s rating back up to even that of a league-average team.

When we look at Atlanta’s metrics, the story is a little different.

Defensively, the Falcons are one of a handful of teams that are notably above average in both opponent EPA/play on dropbacks and on running plays (when filtered for turnovers and garbage time).

Offensively, Atlanta’s results have been mixed. The Falcons struggled in the run game in Week 1, but the entire offensive line pleaded with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson not to change a thing, taking responsibility for poor execution. A week later, Bijan Robninson and Tyler Allegeier combined for 219 rushing yards.

Even if the Falcons’ offense comes out of the wash as merely average as a whole, they get a positive matchup for their run game against the Bills. Mix in an underrated, above-average defense and the Falcons’ rating in the market should probably be higher. Meanwhile, with three straight losses against the spread, there’s still room for Buffalo’s to come down, which sets up for a valuable bet on the home underdog.

Pick: Falcons +4.5

Player props

TE Dalton Kincaid: Over 37.5 receiving yards (-110)

If this was a fantasy football article, we’d be referencing Kincaid as having either a touchdown or 100 yards in all but one game this season (Week 2 vs. Jets, when the game was decided by the second quarter). So, why is this number so low for a player who’s gone over his total in all but one game this season?

At 2.0 receptions and 17.25 yards per game, the Falcons have allowed the lowest average production to opposing tight ends. However, those numbers are potentially a small-sample anomaly. Here’s a list of quarterback-tight end combinations that Atlanta has faced so far:

  • Week 1: Baker Mayfield-Cade Otton

  • Week 2: J.J. McCarthy-T.J. Hockenson

  • Week 3: Bryce Young-Tommy Tremble/Ja’Tavion Sanders

  • Week 4: Marcus Mariota-Zach Ertz

The Allen-Kincaid combination won’t be dissuaded by the Falcons’ success against offenses that don’t focus on getting the ball to a star tight end.

RB Tyler Allgeier: Over 30.5 rushing yards (-110)

Only the Dolphins defense has a worse EPA/play against the run than the Bills. Bijan Robinson is an option here too, but going into their bye week, Robinson was able to accrue big yardage as a receiver, while Allgeier was relied upon to close the game out against Washington on the ground.

[Check out all of Yahoo's sports betting content here in our new betting hub]

Big running backs, like Derrick Henry, Ollie Gordon and Kendre Miller, have had great per-carry success running straight through the middle of the Bills’ defense. With 10+ carries in three of four games, if Allgeier gets near that, he should manage to clear 30 yards.

Anytime touchdown

TE Dalton Kincaid (+250)

With three touchdowns already this season, Kincaid’s already surpassed his second year touchdown total, indicating he’s more of a priority near the end zone for Allen, as well as between the 20s.

WR Joshua Palmer (+525)/WR Curtis Samuel (+600)

The Bills’ “everybody eats” offense works for them, but it’s a nightmare to handicap for anytime touchdowns.

If the premise is that anyone can score at any time, why not split a unit on the two receivers who are on the field for at least 33% of the offensive snaps, and whose odds are +500 or longer?

Both Palmer and Samuel can be found in the slot, so they’ll likely avoid the difficult matchup that the return of A.J. Terrell (back after missing two-and-a-half games) provides.

In his second game of the season, Samuel had a play drawn up for him to score, and can be used out of the backfield in the red zone.

WR Drake London (+150)

London was a touchdown machine last season, finishing the year with nine of his 100 receptions ending in a score. Part of that may have had to do with a strong red-zone connection with veteran Kirk Cousins, but three came with Michael Penix at the end of the season.

The Falcons only have three passing touchdowns this season, with London hauling in just one through four games, but with some time off to self-scout during the bye week, look for Atlanta to scheme open their best red-zone target, finding a matchup away from the Bills’ top corner, Christian Benford (who’s actually struggled this season, garnering a PFF grade that’s 76th at the position – and only that high due to his ability to support against the run).

WR Ray-Ray McCloud (+500)/WR Casey Washington (+525)

Let’s break a unit across a pair of receivers who are going to be asked to fill in for Falcons WR Darnell Mooney, who’s been ruled out with a hamstring injury.

When Mooney wasn’t ready for Week 1, Washington played 95% of the snaps, while McCloud was out there 72% of the time. Then last week, both played a significant amount for the Falcons, with Mooney going out again. If all eyes are on London, Penix might find the lesser-known options are open.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

Dak Prescott: If we don't score, I'm not going to be frustrated with the defense

The Cowboys offense has been one of the highest-scoring units in the league through the first six weeks of the season, but their defense has given a lot of those points back during a 2-3-1 start.

On Sunday, the Panthers were able to force a Cowboys punt in the fourth quarter with the score tied 27-27 and more than six minutes left on the clock. Their offense ate up that remaining time while driving for a game-winning field goal, so the quick reaction would be to point the finger at the defense for its inability to get off the field.

Quarterback Dak Prescott's view was different, however. He said the offense can't afford a failed possession "at a crucial point like that" and that their inability to put points on the board before punting makes it impossible to blame only the defense for not stopping the Panthers.

"If we don’t score, last thing I'm going is being frustrated at the defense," Prescott said, via the team's website. "That's my problem, somebody on offense, or something that we didn't do better."

Per ESPN, Prescott is the first quarterback in history with 11 passing or rushing touchdowns and no interceptions over a three-game span whose team did not have a winning record over that span. The offense hasn't been perfect in those three games, but those numbers paint a picture that gets them awfully close even before you take into account the players that are missing due to injury.

If the Cowboys can't win while getting performances like that, frustration with the defense would be easy to understand even if Prescott isn't willing to go that route.

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