Sports

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 8 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 10-5 (.667) record. Through the first seven weeks of the season, he is 71-37 (.657).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 7 would have been 9-6 (.600). For the season, his record against the spread is 56-52 (.519).

All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts in the Los Angeles area. The Rams, Cardinals, Jaguars, Lions, Raiders and Seahawks are off.

Vikings (3-3) at Chargers (4-3)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m. TV: Amazon Prime, Fox (L.A. market)

Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 44½.

The Chargers came alive on offense in the second half against Indianapolis, although their defense — so sharp in earlier games — has struggled to stop the run. But Carson Wentz is all over the map for Minnesota with two good throws followed by one horrendous one. On a short week, the Chargers have the edge and should bounce back.

Pick: Chargers 21, Vikings 17

Dolphins (1-6) at Falcons (3-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Falcons by 7½. O/U: 44½.

Michael Penix Jr. has a bone bruise to his foot, so he’ll likely be limited. The Falcons, while entirely capable of laying an egg, are far more stable and reliable than the Dolphins, who mustered just six points against Cleveland last week and are adrift at sea. The home team should be in control here.

Pick: Falcons 28, Dolphins 17

49ers (5-2) at Texans (2-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Fox.

Line: Texans by 1½. O/U: 41½.

The 49ers are continuing to win despite a litany of key injuries. Kyle Shanahan is assembling a masterful coaching performance. Houston’s offensive line was bad last year and not much better now. The 49ers should find a way to exploit that with their disciplined defensive front.

Pick: 49ers 24, Texans 20

Jets (0-7) at Bengals (3-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Bengals by 6½. O/U: 43½.

What a story Bengals quarterback Joe Flacco is. He’ll be 41 by the end of the season. The Jets are an unmitigated mess. If the Bengals can protect the football, and if Flacco can replicate the Week 7 game against Pittsburgh, this one won’t be too complicated. Go with competence over chaos.

Pick: Bengals 27, Jets 17

Browns (2-5) at Patriots (5-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Patriots by 7. O/U: 40½.

Have to love that Browns defense. Now the offense has to figure out a reliable way to move the ball. Mike Vrabel will draw up some challenging looks for rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel, and New England’s defense should have a pretty good day. Drake Maye has been outstanding for the Patriots.

Pick: Patriots 28, Browns 23

Giants (2-5) at Eagles (5-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Eagles by 7. O/U: 43½.

It’s fun to watch Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo play with such abandon, although it’s unclear how long they can keep doing that. The Giants won this matchup handily two weeks ago, but the Eagles likely will rebound at home. They should crank up their pass rush for this one.

Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 21

Bills (4-2) at Panthers (4-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Bills by 7½. O/U: 46½.

Carolina is 3-0 at home, and that includes a win over Dallas two weeks ago, so don’t write off the Panthers. But Bryce Young is banged up and that doesn’t help, and there’s a growing feeling of desperation with Buffalo coming off back-to back losses. Josh Allen should get the Bills back on track.

Pick: Bills 31, Panthers 23

Bears (4-2) at Ravens (1-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: CBS.

Line: Ravens by 6½. O/U: 50½.

The Bears have won four in a row, and the Ravens have lost four in a row. Baltimore should be rested after a week off and could do a respectable job against Chicago’s ground game. When everyone is healthy, the Ravens have the better roster, but going with momentum here.

Pick: Bears 28, Ravens 24

Buccaneers (5-2) at Saints (1-6)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Buccaneers by 4½. O/U: 46½.

Tampa Bay got knocked around by Detroit on Monday night, including Mike Evans suffering a broken collarbone. It was a jarring, come-back-to-earth moment for the Buccaneers, who were fresh off wins over Seattle and San Francisco. New Orleans has given Tampa problems at times, but these Saints are struggling.

Pick: Buccaneers 30, Saints 20

Cowboys (3-3-1) at Broncos (5-2)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: CBS.

Line: Broncos by 3½. O/U: 50½.

Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that this would be such a big matchup? Denver’s defense is keeping the Broncos in games, because their offense has yet to find a consistent rhythm. Dallas, meanwhile, is racking up the yards and has scored 40, 37, 27 and 44 in the past four weeks.

Pick: Cowboys 27, Broncos 23

Titans (1-6) at Colts (6-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.

Line: Colts by 14½. O/U: 46½.

The Colts are a complete team, as they showed the Chargers on Sunday. Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor are a devastating one-two punch. Tennessee has won once, and in three of the past four games the Titans have scored 0, 10 and 13 points. Crazy things can happen in divisional matchups but this one looks lopsided.

Pick: Colts 34, Titans 17

Packers (4-1-1) at Steelers (4-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: NBC, Peacock.

Line: Packers by 3½. O/U: 44½.

Four times this season the Packers have scored 27 points. Pittsburgh’s defense is vulnerable and was embarrassed by Joe Flacco in the last game. Still, back in Pittsburgh, with Aaron Rodgers going up against his former team, this just feels like the Steelers will meet the moment.

Pick: Steelers 28, Packers 24

Commanders (3-4) at Chiefs (4-3)

Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: ABC, ESPN.

Line: Chiefs by 10½. O/U: 47½.

After three losses in four games, the Commanders are looking to regain their balance. Bad time to meet up with the Chiefs, who are looking like the same old explosive Kansas City squad. With Patrick Mahomes at the helm, and Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce clicking, go with the home team.

Pick: Chiefs 30, Commanders 21

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

The Ravens’ season is on the brink. Coming out of a bye week, Baltimore are 1-5 after a miserable start partly because their roster has been ripped apart by injuries. Next up are the Chicago Bears, who have come into some form. Beat the Bears, and the Ravens could turn the year around. If they lose, and they fall to 1–6, their season is effectively over, a huge disappointment for a team with genuine Super Bowl aspirations a few months ago. Below, we look at the factors that have hurt the Ravens – and the chances of those factors changing for the better.

Injuries

It’s been a Season From Hell for the Ravens. Injuries have been everywhere and constant. At various points this season they have been without Lamar Jackson (QB), Patrick Ricard (FB), Ronnie Stanley (OT), Emery Jones Jr (OT), Chidobe Awuzie (CB), Tavius Robinson (LB), Robert Longerbeam (CB), Bilhal Kone (CB), Ar’Darius Washington (S), Roquan Smith (LB) and Nnamdi Madubuike (DL). Some have missed weeks; others months. Their injury report has looked like an All-Pro ballot, and there have been weeks when they have fielded a practice-squad defense.

Awuzie and Smith are expected back this week. Jackson’s status is up in the air. But the linchpin of the defense, Madubuike, won’t be returning. He is out for the season with a neck injury. Madubuieke is not a one-on-one game-wrecker, but he’s essential to Baltimore’s blitzing style. Without him, the Ravens cannot manufacture pressure the same way and have to rely on an aging Kyle Van Noy and a crop of rookies to score hits on quarterbacks. Even as others return, losing Madubuieke could prove to be the Jenga piece that topples everything.

Chances of improvement: 6/10 – some players will return but losing Madubuieke is a huge blow.

Related: Russell Wilson hits back at ‘classless’ former coach Sean Payton after Jaxson Dart jab

Quarterback

There’s no mystery here. With Jackson, the Ravens’ offense is a machine. Without him, they are impotent. Jackson has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, and it’s unclear if he will return in time to face the Bears.

With Jackson in the lineup this year, Baltimore’s offense has a 46% success rate, 11th in the league. That’s not MVP-level Lamar, but it’s good enough to win any game and compete in this year’s middling AFC. Without Jackson, the Ravens’ offense has collapsed. Since his injury, the Ravens have the third-worst offense in the league by efficiency. Backup quarterback Cooper Rush led the team to 13 total pointsin his two starts before being replaced by third-stringer Snoop Huntley against the Rams.

Jackson returned to practice on Wednesday and is expected to return on Sunday, barring a setback. At minimum, his return will give the Ravens an upper-tier offense. But there are still underlying flaws with the unit. The offensive line has glaring deficiencies, leaving Jackson to do much of the heavy lifting. Jackson’s mobility and smarts have helped mask pass protection problems that were exposed with Rush at quarterback. Jackson’s threat as a runner will help raise the floor of the rushing game, but the line has struggled to push people off the ball all season.

The run game fuels everything the Ravens want to do on offense. Given Jackson’s threat, the Ravens have nestled into the top half of the league in rushing efficiency every year that he’s been a starter. This year, it has been too boom-or-bust. Derrick Henry has coughed up multiple fumbles, and the offensive line has gifted too many free shots at running backs. After totaling just 23 carries for 75 yards across weeks four and five, Henry went for 24 carries and 122 yards in Week 6 against the Rams – his first 100-yard game since Week 1 against the hapless Bills defense. That’s encouraging. But with or without Jackson, the Ravens running backs have still been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage at a 20% clip, one of the highest rates in the league.

Jackson should be a cure-all. He’s a one-man offense who can raise the level of everyone around him. At worst, he should vault the Ravens into a 25 points per game unit. And that should be enough to give the Ravens a chance to win every game moving forward. If they are forced to crack the 30-point threshold, though, they will need the offensive line to coalesce and Henry to hold on to the ball.

Chances of improvement: 9/10 – Jackson will almost certainly be back and is one of the best players in the league when healthy. Whether that makes up for deficiencies elsewhere remains to be seen.

Defense

30 points a week could be necessary. While the Ravens’ offense has been inconsistent, the defense has been unambiguously bad. They cannot stop the run, rush the passer or cover. Injuries have played a significant role, but they’re not the only reason the group has slipped to the foot of the league.

Seven weeks in, the Ravens have the NFL’s lowest-ranked defense. They have the weakest run defense in the league. They rank 28th in pressure rate and 31st in sack rate, according to Next Gen Stats. Only the Commanders have had more coverage busts this season, per PFF. Taken together, those three amount to the 31st pass defense in the league, ahead of only the Dolphins. The Dolphins!

Fingers can be pointed at the injury report, but a chunk of the blame should also fall on the coaching staff. Last season, the Ravens faced similar issues. They struggled to get lined up or to execute basic plays. But their offense kept them in enough games that they could turn things around by the midpoint of the season, evolving into one of the better defenses in the league over the second half of the year. Those same early-season failures have returned: an allergy to tackling and defenders failing to understand their assignments.

Offseason pickups haven’t moved the needle, either. Rookies Malaki Starks, Mike Green and Teddye Buchanan have looked lost. Jaire Alexander, an All-Pro in Green Bay, looks cooked.

Despite the mess, Harbaugh has stuck by defensive coordinator Zach Orr, refusing to strip him of play-calling duties. Last year, the Ravens brought in former coordinator Dean Pees to help advise Orr. The group made significant changes that helped spark the midseason about-face. Pees is no longer on staff, and the same problems that plagued Orr’s unit last season have returned, with a crop of injuries on top of the structural flaws.

The Ravens have made an in-season move to try to level up the group, acquiring safety Alohi Gilman in a trade with the Chargers for pass-rusher Odafe Oweh. It’s a savvy deal. On paper, letting Oweh go looks like a ding to an already banal pass-rush. But swapping Oweh for Gilman was a two-for-one trade, allowing the Ravens to upgrade their deep safety position and move Kyle Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage.

Since he entered the league, Hamilton has been the most effective blitzer in the NFL. When the defense faltered last season, the Ravens moved Hamilton from his typical role around the box back to deep safety. It worked. Now, with the front struggling, adding Gilman allows them to push him back into an attack role closer to the line.

Hamilton bouncing between roles as a blitzer and slot corner should help elevate the Ravens in two crucial areas. They still lack the juice to win up front without blitzing. But if they win on Sunday, they could go hunting for extra veteran help on the trade market to offset the loss of Oweh.

Chances of improvement: 4/10 – The Gilman trade has worked but this is a unit with deep flaws.

Luck

Looking at the schedule, the Ravens probablyneed to win seven of their next eight games. They host the Bears, then face three road games in Miami, Minnesota and Cleveland. After that, it’s a home stand against the Jets, Bengals and Steelers before they face the Bengals on the road. With Jackson back, the Ravens are likely to be favored in all eight games. But the NFL is weird. Teams lose games they’re expected to win. Fortune comes into play: a bad officiating call, the bounce of a ball, a missed kick or another injury could be enough to end Baltimore’s postseason hopes.

Playing in the AFC North will help. Joe Burrow is not expected to return for Cincinnati until after Christmas, and may be shut down before then if the Bengals are clearly out of the playoff race. The Steelers lead the division but are hardly a juggernaut. And the Browns, despite an outstanding defense, have the lousiest offense in football. In another division, the Ravens’ odds would be narrower. But if Jackson returns to full health, the Ravens could rip off eight-straight wins to put them in a position to win the North in the final three weeks.

Those final three games will be tricky. The Ravens host the Patriots before traveling to the Packers and Steelers, which could be a one-off game for the division crown. But to get to that position, they cannot afford another slip-up against a beatable team.

No team has ever had the same quarterback-coach combination for at least five years and then won the Super Bowl for the first time with that duo. This is the eighth year for Jackson and Harbaugh. Time isn’t just running out; it’s nearly gone. Harbaugh’s future may hinge on Sunday.

If the Ravens can put a run together and make the playoffs, they will be one of the most dangerous teams in a weak AFC field. If they sputter to the end of the campaign, they will be looking at a hard reset.

Chances of improvement: 5/10 – The whole point about luck is you can’t predict it. More importantly: if you’re relying on it, you’re not a very good team.