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With anything new, we try to allow for a grace period. There’s uncertainty in how things will come together. Most of our understanding is just theoretical. In other words, it makes sense on paper, but reality has to fill in the blanks. Anyway, there’s no problem with needing to calibrate to a fresh situation.

However, for fantasy football, Week 4 was the end of that time.

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We’ve gotten a month of film and data on each team. Some of the takeaways align with our offseason assumptions. Others have us questioning our processes. Regardless, the novelty of the new year can’t be a reason to diminish our panic level. Even more concerning, if we’re hoping for a change, the last four weeks are our only clues to see if it’s possible.

The Eagles’ run game is a problem (and not in a good way)

On the one hand, if you look at Saquon Barkley’s workload, you’d be happy with what you see. The reigning OPoY is one of four RBs with over 70.0% of his team’s carries and a target share north of 15.0%. And while Jalen Hurts is always a threat to steal a TD or two from the goal line, Philadelphia’s coaching staff continues to find ways to keep their star RB involved when it matters.

However, the box score tells a different story. Barkley’s yet to cross the century mark as a runner. Actually, he hasn’t topped 100 scrimmage yards in a single game through four weeks. I’ll get to the bigger (heavier?) concern in a bit, but his own play has taken a step back after a historic run in '24.

• Rushing Success Rate (on early downs): 34.3% (2025), 49.3% (2024)

• Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 2.3, 5.1

• Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 8.6%, 20.3%

To be fair, defenses are wise to the Eagles’ style of play. Barkley’s seen a stacked box (eight or more men close to the formation) on early downs at the sixth-highest rate. On those attempts, he’s averaging 2.0 yards per tote. Especially last week, you could see the limitations. But, as I mentioned, the problems extend past Barkley’s ability to run the ball.

• Adj. Yards Before Contact per Att.: 0.71 (2025), 1.04 (2024)

• Run Block Win Rate: 22nd, 9th

Lane Johnson’s health has been a factor, but the rest of the blocking unit has been an issue to start the season. Half of Barkley’s attempts have come with a defender meeting him at or behind the line of scrimmage. He’s had just two explosive runs. And with the upcoming schedule featuring multiple teams allowing below-average outings to opposing RBs, we’re hoping for a shift in scheme and protection to get the Eagles’ rushing attack back on track.

Panic Meter: Moderate to High

The Bolts are losing their Charge

Here’s a true story from my life as an analyst. In a Superflex league, I had to choose between Justin Herbert, Drake Maye and Justin Fields. I locked in Herbert and waffled between Maye and Fields as the weekend approached. Needless to say, my anxiety ratcheted up a notch when I didn’t get any touchdown notifications. When I scrolled through social media to catch some clips, it was easy to see why.

Herbert’s 24-yard scramble was the exact type of play the Chargers needed after a quick three-and-out to start the game. However, the explosive run came at a cost. Star LT Joe Alt suffered a high-ankle sprain on the same play, which will sideline him for a month. And if we were worried about Herbert’s protection coming into the season, another missing lineman should only amplify our concerns.

• Week 1: 36.6% (pressure rate), 56.8% (passing success rate)

• Week 2: 25.0%, 55.2%

• Week 3: 49.1%, 38.5%

• Week 4: 45.5%, 34.9%

Herbert has been under siege on 20 or more dropbacks in two straight games. Seven of them happened within 2.0 seconds of the snap. On the bright side, the Chargers’ QB1 limited the negative outcomes to two sacks. (Note: The video shows Ladd McConkey losing his footing on the turf during the second interception, so I’m ignoring that one.) But the need to protect the franchise will likely (and should) be HC Jim Harbaugh’s prime directive moving forward. And unfortunately for fantasy managers, that might mean a shift in play-calling.

Despite the lack of push up front, rookie RB Omarion Hampton gave the Bolts the spark they needed. His 10.7 (no, not a typo!) adjusted yards after contact per attempt more than made up for his team’s blocking woes. Coupled with Hampton’s propensity for a big play (23.5% explosive run rate), Week 5 might be a return to the Chargers of old as they try to take as much pressure off of Herbert as they can.

Panic Meter: Moderate to High

Josh Allen’s WR1 is…

The "obvious" answer is Khalil Shakir. He scored a touchdown last week. That’s two games in a row. Buffalo’s slot man should have the coveted title. However, there’s likely an asterisk next to it.

Two takeaways from Shakir’s touchdown run against the Saints. First, well done by Shakir to keep his balance en route to the end zone. However, rookie safety Jonas Sanker helped keep the other Saints’ defenders from Shakir after the missed tackle. Simply put, it highlights the play's flukiness. Sure, sixty-three yards and a TD look great in the box score. But when 43 of those yards come on a single play, I’d raise an eyebrow. Plus, his peripherals don’t paint the picture of a top-12 option.

• Route Rate: 71.4%

• Air Yard Share: 3.6%

To be clear, I’m not harping on just Shakir. His volume is a product of the Bills offense. They’re all role players with Josh Allen threading the needle to whoever wins on their route. And if we look across some of the opportunity metrics, you’ll find a different Bills’ pass-catcher leading the way.

Even worse, none of them is Shakir.

• (Most) Targets per Game: Keon Coleman, 5.5

• (Highest) Third/Fourth Down Target Share: Dalton Kincaid, 19.4%

• Air Yard Share: Keon Coleman, 29.0%

• Red-Zone Target Rate: Dalton Kincaid, 20.8%

Week 4 marked the third time any receiving option for Josh Allen surpassed a 20.0% target share. A rate we typically associate with (low-end) WR1s, but just five passes thrown Shakir’s way doesn’t have the same ring to it. In addition, this was a game where five other players earned more air yards. Six have seen two or more targets every contest. While Shakir has the results of a reliable option, his usage and surrounding talent suggest a passing game where we should be hesitant to start any of them.

Panic Level: Moderate

San Francisco Needs to Get Healthy

The 49ers’ injury report looked like a CVS receipt heading into Week 4. But I’ll focus on the offensive skill players.

• Connor Colby (LG) — Groin; Limited all week

• Jauan Jennings (WR) — Ankle, Shoulder; Two DNPs and a limited session on Friday

• Ricky Pearsall (WR) — Knee; One DNO and two limited practices

• Brock Purdy (QB) — Shoulder, Toe; Two limited practices and a full

No big deal. Just the QB, one of his starting linemen and both primary receivers pushing through injuries to make it to Sunday. Let’s also remember they were facing a defensive unit that, entering Week 4, had top-10 marks in passing success rate allowed and defensive EPA per play. And while health certainly played a role in Purdy’s two picks, there’s a luck factor as well.

You can nitpick the ball placement, but the end-zone view should pull some of the blame away from Purdy. It’s not every day Christian McCaffrey triple bobbles (while adjusting to the throw) a pass into a defender’s hands. A similar level of scrutiny would highlight a tipped pass at the line of scrimmage before his second interception. Besides, if you’ve watched Purdy this year or last, you would know the misfires aren’t due to a lack of talent.

• Week 4: -8.3% (completion percentage over expected), -0.03 (EPA per dropback)

• Week 1: 15.3%, 0.34

• 2024: 2.1%, 0.17

The 49ers need some rest. And even though they’ll get a mini-bye after their TNF battle against the Rams, their next five games will feature defenses at or above the league average in pressure rate (at TB, vs ATL, at HOU, at NYG, vs LAR). So, unless you’ve got McCaffrey, each practice report update should have you scanning your bench for other options.

Panic Level: Moderate to High

This is the first time I’m rolling out a rookie grading scale for the rookie report, and let me just say this up front I’m a tough grader. Expectations were sky high for this rookie class, and I’m not here to hand out participation trophies. You get the grade you’ve earned through the first quarter of the fantasy football season, nothing more.

I’m excited to break this down, and I appreciate everybody who locks in with the rookie report every single week. Now, let’s dive in and see how these young rookies have looked to open their NFL careers.

Ashton Jeanty — Grade B

• Yahoo ADP: 12.7 overall

• Total fantasy points (Weeks 1-4): 55.7 (13.9 per game)

Ashton Jeanty is currently ninth in the NFL in rushing yards with 282. He’s tied for 16th with two rushing touchdowns and sits tied for seventh in the league with 68 carries. Through four weeks, Jeanty is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and 13.9 half-PPR points per game, tied with Saquon Barkley at RB13.

It has been a slow burn. Jeanty scored in his first game, but his yards per carry stayed under four in each of his first three contests, and he wasn’t heavily involved in the passing game. Then Week 4 against Chicago happened. Jeanty broke off a 64-yard run, scored three total touchdowns, and reminded everyone why he was drafted in the top 10 of the 2025 NFL Draft.

Jeanty has already posted one RB1 overall week and another top-24 finish. He’s forced 29 missed tackles, which trails only Bucky Irving and Jonathan Taylor, and his 10 runs of 10+ yards tie him with Travis Etienne Jr. and James Cook. The Raiders’ offensive line is banged up and losing Kolton Miller won’t help, but Jeanty looks like the type of player the team will have to lean on moving forward. Based on draft capital and performance, Jeanty earns a B for quarter one.

Omarion Hampton — Grade B

• Yahoo ADP: 35.2 overall

• Total fantasy points (Weeks 1-4): 57.0 (14.3 per game)

Much like Jeanty, Omarion Hampton started slow. Through his first two games, questions were already being asked about whether the Chargers made a mistake drafting him in Round 1. That changed after Najee Harris tore his Achilles. Once Harris went down, Hampton was unleashed as the featured back and delivered in a big way.

Over Weeks 3 and 4, Hampton caught at least five passes in each game and posted his breakout performance with 128 rushing yards against the Giants. He’s averaging 14.3 half-PPR points per game, RB11 on the season, with two top-24 finishes.

Hampton has forced 18 missed tackles (13th in the league) and ripped off seven runs of 10+ yards (tied for 11th). Playing alongside an MVP-level quarterback in Justin Herbert, Hampton is in an environment that will continue to give him opportunity. After the slow start, his last two weeks give you real confidence moving forward. Hampton earns a B for quarter one.

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TreVeyon Henderson — Grade C

• Yahoo ADP: 55.5 overall

• Total fantasy points (Weeks 1-4): 30.9 (7.7 per game)

This one has been tough. TreVeyon Henderson currently sits at RB35, averaging 7.7 half PPR points per game. He has only two rushes of 10+ yards on the year and has forced just eight missed tackles.

The one bright spot has been his receiving work. Henderson has caught all 13 of his targets for 87 yards, averaging 3.3 receptions and 21.8 yards per game. He scored his lone touchdown in Week 4, but otherwise his production has been disappointing.

Henderson hasn’t even cracked 100 total rushing yards through four weeks. Some of the traits we thought would be strengths, like pass protection, have been questioned early. He’s talented, but the New England backfield led by Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson has left Henderson without a clear role. He’s not startable right now, and considering he was the third rookie running back taken after Jeanty and Hampton in fantasy drafts, the return has been frustrating. Henderson gets a C for quarter one.

RJ Harvey — Grade C

• Yahoo ADP: 58.2 overall

• Total fantasy points (Weeks 1-4): 31.2 (7.8 per game)

RJ Harvey entered the season with expectations of stepping into a big pass-catching role under Sean Payton in Denver. Instead, J.K. Dobbins has dominated touches, sitting at RB14 with 13.7 half PPR points per game, and Harvey has been left as the secondary option.

Through four games, Harvey has averaged 7.8 half PPR points per game with only one top-24 finish. His best showing came this past week against the Bengals when he had a receiving touchdown and posted 40 yards through the air.

The talent is still there, but Harvey has been inconsistent, with Weeks 2 and 3 especially quiet. He’s going to be involved as the season progresses, but right now he’s clearly playing behind Dobbins. Based on his cost and limited production, Harvey earns a C for quarter one.

Tetairoa McMillan — Grade C+

• Yahoo ADP: 69.1 overall

• Total fantasy points (Weeks 1-4): 36.8 (9.2 per game)

Tetairoa McMillan has been solid to start his rookie year, but the lack of touchdowns and the offense around him are holding him back. Drafted with an ADP of 69.1, McMillan is averaging 9.2 half-PPR points per game with no top-24 fantasy finishes. The raw talent is obvious — he’s already posted a 100-yard performance and sits top 15 in total receiving yards — but he hasn’t been able to consistently cash in on the opportunities.

Part of the issue is the Carolina offense. Bryce Young has not shown the growth you want to see from a former No. 1 overall pick, and even in a blowout loss to New England, McMillan managed just four receptions for 62 yards on eight targets. At 6-foot-5, you’d expect him to be a red-zone mismatch, but the problem is how often this offense will even get him there.

He’s done his job, and the numbers show he belongs, but the environment has capped his upside. Based on what we’ve seen through four weeks, McMillan earns a C+ for quarter one.

Davis Long

Travis Hunter — Grade D

• Yahoo ADP: 74.2 overall

• Total fantasy points (Weeks 1-4): 18.3 (4.6 per game)

This one hurts. Travis Hunter was the second overall pick in the NFL Draft and the first wide receiver off the board. He was taken right after Tetairoa McMillan in fantasy drafts with an ADP of 74.2, and so far he’s giving you just 4.6 half-PPR points per game — right in line with names like Josh Palmer and Darius Slayton. That’s not what you signed up for.

We knew Hunter was going to play both sides of the ball. We knew his responsibilities would be split, but I don’t think anyone expected the transition to be this rocky. He’s been unusable for fantasy. The talent is undeniable, but this isn’t the Big 12, it isn’t Colorado and it sure as hell isn’t Baylor’s defense across from him. This is the NFL, and the split roles are preventing him from locking in on being great in one spot.

Add in the fact that Trevor Lawrence has been inconsistent, Brian Thomas Jr. hasn’t stepped up, and outside of Travis Etienne Jr. this Jaguars offense feels shaky. Bottom line, it’s hard to see Hunter becoming reliable any time soon. Maybe this is just the kid with all the potential who needs the right seat in the classroom. I’m hoping for a better second quarter, but based on draft capital, expectations and return, Hunter gets a D for quarter one.

Emeka Egbuka — Grade A+

• Yahoo ADP: 88.1 overall

• Total fantasy points (Weeks 1-4): 62.1 (15.5 per game)

Emeka Egbuka has been phenomenal, averaging 15.5 half PPR points per game good for WR7 on the season. He’s top 12 in receiving yards, tied for third in touchdowns and has delivered two top-12 finishes.

Egbuka has been consistent whether scoring touchdowns or racking up catches, posting at least 85 yards or a touchdown in every game. He stepped up when Chris Godwin was sidelined and Mike Evans went down, becoming a go-to target for Baker Mayfield.

Transitioning to the NFL at wide receiver is notoriously difficult, but Egbuka has made it look easy. Considering he was taken after Tetairoa McMillan and Travis Hunter in fantasy drafts, his early production has been an absolute steal. For his performance and value, Egbuka earns the only A+ of quarter one.

Matthew Golden — Grade D

• Yahoo ADP: 103.0 overall

• Total fantasy points (Weeks 1-4): 21 (5.3 per game)

Matthew Golden came into the year with first-round draft capital and whispers that he could emerge as the Packers’ WR1. Through the first quarter of the season, that hasn’t come close to happening. Golden is averaging just 5.3 half-PPR points per game, hasn’t hit 60 yards in a contest, and has yet to find the end zone.

The talent is clear. He nearly connected with Jordan Love on a would-be 90-yard touchdown and has shown flashes of the speed and playmaking that got him drafted in Round 1. But the production just hasn’t followed. Golden owns an 11% target share and sits behind Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft and Josh Jacobs in the pecking order.

This isn’t an indictment of Golden’s ability. He’s a skilled receiver who should become more involved as the year goes on. But given the expectations and the investment you made in drafts, a quiet start with no splash games earns him a D for quarter one.

Tyler Warren — Grade A

• Yahoo ADP: 104.5 overall

• Total fantasy points (Weeks 1-4): 42.4 (10.6 per game)

This is probably the rookie I’m most proud of calling early. From the moment the Colts drafted Tyler Warren, it didn’t matter who was playing quarterback — he was on my radar. Rookie tight ends almost never hit the ground running, but Warren has been the exception. Through four weeks, he’s averaging 10.6 half-PPR points per game, right in line with Trey McBride and ahead of names like Brock Bowers, Mark Andrews and TJ Hockenson. If you punted the position in drafts and took a late shot on Warren, you’re sitting pretty right now.

He’s already put up three games with 70+ receiving yards, totaled 263 yards on 19 catches, and even chipped in a rushing touchdown on four carries. At 6-foot-6, 256-pounds, he’s a unique weapon — part big-bodied red zone target, part versatile chess piece the Colts can move around the formation. Daniel Jones’ efficiency has only boosted his start, but make no mistake, Warren has been a true difference-maker in his own right.

He may not be Bowers, but Warren looks like his own mold of tight end — rugged, physical and productive. Draft capital and early production both point to him being a long-term piece for Indy and a season-long fantasy starter. Based on what he’s given you compared to cost, Warren earns a strong A for quarter one.

Quinshon Judkins — Grade A

• Yahoo ADP: 113.1 overall

• Total fantasy points (Weeks 2-4): 44.1 (14.7 per game)

Quinshon Judkins missed Week 1 due to his pre-existing legal issues but has been outstanding since entering the lineup. In just three games, he’s averaged 14.7 half-PPR points per game, posted two top-12 finishes and forced seven missed tackles with five runs of 10+ yards.

Judkins has already been leaned on as a bell cow. He ran for 94 yards and a touchdown in Week 3 and followed that up with 82 yards, a touchdown and four catches against Detroit. He’s been the focal point of Cleveland’s offense despite the team’s struggles in the passing game.

For a rookie who missed training camp and his first NFL game, Judkins has been electric. The Browns have no choice but to keep feeding him. He looks like the top rookie running back right now and earns a strong A for quarter one.

That’s the first-quarter report card for the 10 most highly-drafted rookies entering the season. We’ll check back in at the midterms to see how they’ve progressed.