Sports

It’s NFL midseason week here at Yahoo Sports, and to celebrate, this week’s Four Verts column will delve into some superlatives as well as awards at the halfway point.

Most to prove award: J.J. McCarthy

As the importance of quarterbacks in the modern game becomes more obvious and internalized in the minds of fans and NFL executives, the desire to have a great one has warped how people view the game. Coverage is often hyperfocused on the quarterback, to the point where the entire success of a team is whittled down to one player.

There might not be a better example of the current QB fervor than what is happening to the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy as he continues to receive praise for leading Minnesota to victory over the Lions this week — which isn’t an accurate portrayal of how that game went.

The Vikings’ passing game has arguably been the worst in the sport this year when McCarthy is under center. According to TruMedia, the only quarterback (minimum 50 dropbacks) with a lower mark than McCarthy’s -0.37 expected points added per dropback is Ravens backup Cooper Rush (-0.41). Among the 41 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season, McCarthy ranks 40th in expected points added per dropback. Since 2021, there have been 103 players to take at least 50 dropbacks. McCarthy ranks 99th in expected points added per dropback among that sample, with only Brandon Allen (-0.37), Dorian Thompson-Robinson (-0.40), Mike Glennon (-0.40) and Anthony Brown (-0.44) generating less value.

Even within the Vikings’ win over the Lions, they weren’t actually able to move the ball with any consistency. They started well on their first two drives where McCarthy completed 5 of 7 passes for 68 yards and two touchdowns as the Vikings did well on their scripted drives. For the remainder of the game, they really struggled to generate any sort of production in the passing game. The next 24 dropbacks that carried them through the end of the game gained 48 net passing yards. McCarthy was able to pick up a key scramble for nine yards, bringing the total to 57 yards over 24 dropbacks across the final three quarters. That’s 2.4 yards per dropback to go along with being sacked five times, which is 21.5% of this sample and 16.7% of the entire game.

That level of production isn’t going to cut it, and it was in line with how McCarthy has generally looked when he’s played this season. His sack rate sits at 17.5%, which is by far the worst number in the league and significantly higher than Carson Wentz’s alarmingly high mark of 10.8% during his own starts for the Vikings this season. There are quarterbacks like Drake Maye and Lamar Jackson who play with high sack rates as well, but they consistently generate big plays in the passing game to mitigate the impact of those sacks. That isn’t happening here. This has largely just been a net negative. 

The good thing here is that the Vikings are still winning these games. Their defense, coaching staff and supporting cast around McCarthy set a high floor, as they showed for the majority of last season before imploding in the final couple weeks. It’s difficult to win these games with this little production from the offense, but Brian Flores and his defense had the Lions in a chokehold in high-leverage moments, and a huge field goal block set up more points for the offense. If they can just get anything from the passing game moving forward they’ll be formidable in January, even if they might not be good enough to win the Super Bowl. 

The fear here is that McCarthy’s baseline play right now might be so low that waiting for him to get to starter-quality level might not match a realistic timeline for a team that’s ready to win now. However, the glass-half-full view is that it really would be difficult to be worse than this without suffering a serious injury, considering how often he takes hits while trying to diagnose the defense. He can only go up from here, because he won’t be on the field very long if he doesn’t.

McCarthy made a great throw to seal the win for the Vikings, but giving him credit for the win or framing this performance as an overall positive is creating an expectation that he hasn’t even met yet. Just because he isn’t good now doesn’t mean he can’t be in the future, but there isn’t anything at this point to suggest it will happen. Don’t forget all the other players on the field exist!

The Perseverance Award: Cam Ward

Boy. This has been a painful start for Cam Ward and the Titans. Head coach Brian Callahan was fired and they boast the worst overall offense in the league up to this point.

Ward has had some real moments of brilliance this season, showing off the traits that made him the no-brainer first overall pick, but there’s also been too many boneheaded moments leading to drive-killing sacks or turnovers. The supporting cast is still a major work in progress and the Titans are a few strong offseasons away from being a threat, which seems like a reasonable timeline — to everyone except Cam Ward himself.

Ian Maule via Getty Images

Ward has taken this season incredibly hard, often denigrating his own performance and briefly challenging a reporter on his play call knowledge during a media conference. The passion Ward has for the game can't be questioned given the strife and anguish that he’s shown everyone over the course of this season. The Titans might be starting the Ward era off on a bad foot, but it really has been refreshing to hear a quarterback speak so honestly and directly about how they and their team are performing. When Ward said “we ass” after a loss to the Texans, it was a little shocking, given the answers that are normally delivered in postgame media conferences, but it certainly was not a lie. 

This team is terrible, they’re playing terrible football and there’s no point in running from that if they want to have the ability to power through this. Ward’s willingness to grapple with the hard truth of his reality makes him worthy of the Perseverance Award, a very real award that has long existed. The next step is to stop making the silliest turnovers mankind has ever seen.

The Supersim Award: Kevin Stefanski

The Supersim award is a new award based off a concept in EA Sports’ Madden franchise that lets players skip, or simulate, specific plays in a game based on how they want to play. If you want to play offense only, defense only, high leverage situations — your choosing.

This year, Kevin Stefanski wins the Supersim award because he is absolutely done with the Browns offense this year. Stefanski, who is legitimately one of the best head coaches in the league and a deserving two-time Coach of the Year, passed the sticks to offensive coordinator Tommy Rees to call plays for the rest of the season. It’s the second year in a row he’s handed off play-calling duties.

Despite all the fervor surrounding the Browns’ truly pitiful quarterback situation, there just isn’t much here to get excited about. Dillon Gabriel hasn’t demonstrated anything but the fact that he can’t be the long-term quarterback, and Shedeur Sanders somehow keeps getting injuries despite not playing in the games. Rookies Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr. look like they could be serious difference-makers and Pro Bowl-quality players in the very near future, but outside of them the Browns’ offense is fairly barren. They’re averaging 1.32 points per drive, 31st in the league — and it feels worse than that watching them slug up and down the field. 

So, Stefanski, really upon trading away Joe Flacco and then finalized this week, paused his game, pressed the “Supersim” option in the menu and clicked “Defense Only.” Which is how everyone should be consuming this team. The defense is awesome as Myles Garrett continues to rack up mind-boggling records and highlights on another hopeless Browns team. That is worthy of engagement, and hopefully they get the quarterback position right soon before people begin to lose sight of the fact that the Browns really do have some elite pillars on this team, just not enough. 

Actual Midseason Awards

There was a little too much rambling about the state of the media to start this column followed up by bits, so let’s speedrun through some actual, concise NFL takes here with a set of midseason awards.

MVP: Lamar Jackson

I am taking this as literally as possible. Tyler Huntley did a fine job in one game this season, but the Ravens simply do not stand a chance of saving this season without Jackson on the field. When he plays, they can beat anyone. When he sits, they’ve been one of the worst teams in the league. Seems simple to me, even though I do not think he will win this award in real life barring an unthinkably dominant run to close out the year. 

Offensive Player of the Year: Jonathan Taylor

This was tough, because Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been utterly dominant this season, but Jonathan Taylor gets the nod because of how efficient he has been over a high volume of carries. He ranks fifth in expected points added per carry (0.17) with the second-most carries in the league (157). Taylor has generated 25.9 expected points this year on rushing plays, which is by far the most in the league. If those carries were isolated and compared to each team’s passing offense, Taylor’s 25.9 expected points added on rushes alone would be the 15th-ranked passing offense — generating similar value to the Broncos (22.6), Cardinals (25.8) and Eagles (20.8) passing games this season. That’s just too much production to not have this award.

Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett

He’s already got 10 sacks and 15 tackles for loss this season. He’s literally Myles Garrett.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Tetairoa McMillan

Tetairoa McMillan already looks like he might be one of the better wide receivers in the league. Emeka Egbuka has been slightly more productive, but McMillan is doing this in a worse offense with a much worse quarterback and still has continued to shine as a potential long-term WR1 for the Panthers. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Carson Schwesinger

Two Browns mentions! Cleveland’s defense has been a force this season, and, players like linebacker Carson Schwesinger are a big reason why. He had some big shoes to fill in the middle of that defense after Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah’s neck injury, and he’s played well while setting a high floor for himself for the future. This looks like a home run so far for the Browns.

Coach of the Year: Ben Johnson

The Chicago Bears have a viable offense right now, with big-time potential for the very near future.

Hold on. 

The CHICAGO BEARS have a viable offense right now, with big-time potential for the very near future.

That should be enough for everyone.

Comeback Player of the Year: Sam Darnold

Let me say this as someone who covered Sam for a couple years up here in New York: He earned this, man. At no point was this easy for him, but to get to the point where he could be a sought-after free agent that’s now leading one of the best offenses in the NFL is a crazy progression for a former top-three pick in the draft. It took a few stops, but it appears that the talent Darnold possesses is finally meshing with the right situation and Seattle should be able to sustain this level of play into the playoffs, where anything becomes possible. This has been one of the coolest stories in the NFL this year. 

Prime’s "Thursday Night Football" broadcast probably looks back on Oct. 6, 2022, with fond memories. The Indianapolis Colts, with quarterback Matt Ryan, traveled to Denver to take on the Broncos with Russell Wilson at the helm.

The game went to overtime and ended in a Colts win with a final score of 12-9. There was not one single touchdown scored in the game, but seven field goals were made. It was one of the most boring NFL games to watch, and it ignited NFL fans to clamor for actually relevant "Thursday Night Football" games — or simply do away with them.

Fast forward three years later, and we have our seventh divisional matchup through 10 weeks of Thursday night games, and this week, the Broncos are back in action.

Denver (7-2) sits atop the AFC West in a loaded division and plays host to the Las Vegas Raiders (2-6). The Broncos are on a six-game winning streak and are 4-0 at home this season. They are 9-point favorites with a total sitting at 42.5. 

The Raiders recently got TE Brock Bowers back and looked a bit better in a loss to Jacksonville last week, but they followed that up by trading WR Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars. Let’s dive into how we should bet this one.

All lines from BetMGM and subject to change.

The spread: Broncos -9

The spread opened at Broncos -9.5, and there has been a slight move toward the Raiders. However, the half point on 9 is pretty insignificant in NFL value. It would be more telling if it had moved to -10.

I rely on market-based power rankings to help with my handicapping, and they are a reflection of previous closing lines around the league to power-rate each team and project values on a neutral field for any matchup. If we use Raiders at Broncos in market ratings and factor in Denver's home-field advantage, the number is Broncos -9.6. I thought the 9.5 was perfectly the right price, yet I respect the betting market showing signals of it moving to 9, and therefore this is a clear no play.

Ideally, market ratings and market movement align, and there is still wiggle room from the number to still derive value. Here we have low value numbers, and market signals and market ratings moving in opposite directions.

Bet: Pass

The total: 42.5

This total has been the consensus line all week, and there is a play to be found here.

Despite the Raiders finding some offensive groove against the Jaguars with the return of Bowers, I am not upgrading their offensive much at all. QB Geno Smith is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions at 11 with Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.

The Raiders face a stout defense, as the Broncos ranked fourth in fewest points allowed per game. The Broncos rely on talent, continuity and system on the defensive side, and while losing CB Patrick Surtain II to a pectoral injury is a clear negative, they did hold the Houston Texans to just 15 points last week without him, further lowering their weekly average points allowed.

On the other side, Broncos QB Bo Nix has not lived up to the Year 2 hype bestowed upon him by head coach Sean Payton. Nix is reliable in that he does not take sacks, which is a principle of a Payton offense, but he ranks 17th in the league in QB rating and is merely average.

I am confident in saying we do not see a 43 show up because it is a key number for NFL totals. Instead, there may be some short-week, divisional-game under money that hits the screens between now and kickoff. I like the under at what feels like, at worst, a flat-to-market position at kickoff.

Bet: Under 42.5 (-110)