Sports

We have reached Week 6 of the NFL season and the Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) are right back where they started in Week 1: the favorite in a Thursday Night Football game. 

Both the Eagles and the New York Giants (1-4) enter Week 6 off a loss, but the Eagles look to stay atop the NFC and the Giants seek to stay relevant in the divisional standings. Currently the Eagles are a 7-point favorite on the road with a total of 40.5. 

Let’s look to how to bet this game from the standpoint of the spread, total and some props.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 40.5) at New York Giants

The early market signals have been quiet with a consensus across the market at a “soft” 7.5. Quiet means there has been little to no line movement to help indicate the sharp side. Soft means the vig is lower than -110 on the -7.5.

Because the total in this game is low at 41, and the early sharp signals have been in the totals market, playing the favorite against the spread is a tough angle for me to support. On the other side, taking Jaxson Dart in his third career start and his first short-week game, even at +7.5 (-115), is also not a buy point for me either. I am staying away from the spread altogether and really have no lean. 

Total: Over/Under 40.5

The total for this game is where we have seen consistent sharp action and line movement. 

At BetMGM, the total reopened on Sunday night at 42.5 (-110) each way. We've seen one-way movement towards the under without much resistance. The market keeps dropping, waiting for the buy point for people who want the over, and we are still yet to get there. 

From a football perspective, the Giants rank 28th in points scored this season, which even included one blowup performance against a weak Cowboys defense. Both of these teams are run heavy, with the main playmaker at the RB position and mobile quarterbacks. The passing game mainly profiles with short passing concepts. Jalen Hurts only averages 177.8 pass yards per game and yet it has not impacted the Eagles ability to win consistently. 

Look for little to change here, and for the Eagles to sustain long drive that burns clock. 

Bet: Under 40.5 for half a unit

Player props to target

QB Jalen Hurts under 197.5 passing yards (-115)

This is my favorite prop for this game. This has been a betting trend worth investing in the last few weeks, as Hurts' pregame props have been above 200 and consistently been trending down. They have both been bet under in the pregame markets — closing lower than they opened — and have generally come in under the total and cashed, which has led to them reopening even lower for the next game. The question we have to ask ourselves is when is this prop priced out and too low. I don’t think the floor has been hit yet.

We need to factor in the Giants' best defensive feature is their front four and ability to pass rush. When the pass rush and quarterback pressure intensifies, the impetus is on the QB to get passes out quickly. That means wide receivers don't make it far to spread the field, and the passing game works in the short and intermediate routes. 

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A strong run game and mobile QB is a great counter attack to a strong pass rush, and I expect the Eagles to draw up plays that help work the outsides like screen routes, sweeps and QB designed runs. The total number of drives should be low in the game because both offenses want to run the ball and keep the clock moving. 

RB Saquon Barkley over 2.5 receptions (-105)

There are going to be a lot of people who point to the revenge game narrative for Barkley going up against the Giants. He dominated them last year, but that's because the Eagles offensive line was incredibly elite and the Giants stunk.

There does not seem to be true animosity between player and organization, as both have said very positive things about one another since parting. The reason to target the receptions is because on plays where Philadelphia does try and push the ball deeper downfield, Barkely is going to have to be a safety valve underneath. If Hurts feels pressure and has to get rid of it, Barkley is the outlet. 

Combine that with some offensive line injuries and only six rushing attempts last game, and the way to get the ball in your best playmaker's hands is going to be in short passing situations. Back to the well for me here on Barkley to catch at least three passes, just a few days after he housed a 50-yard touchdown off a RB wheel route.