Sports

Week 7 is upon us and there are two games in particular the boys in the desert are telling us to potentially attack in fantasy football: Washington @ Dallas and Tampa Bay @ Detroit. Both games carry big point totals, 53.5 and 52.5, respectively.

Don’t worry, I’ve listed my favorite sleeper plays from both games below, but if you’re waffling between two players to start or sit, it might be a good idea to lean on players in these games, as they carry increased touchdown exposure.

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On the flip side, Vegas clearly doesn’t believe in vibes because the Giants, the vibe-iest team in the NFL, have the lowest implied total this week at just 17.0 points. For context, the Tennessee Titans have the second-lowest projected total at 17.5 and let’s be real: The Titans offense has been atrocious and now they have a new interim head coach as a result.

Back to the Giants; they're on the road, taking on the Broncos. I view Cam Skattebo as playable because he’s seeing too much volume to ignore but outside of the Skatt-man, I wouldn’t be that comfortable playing anyone else in a Giants uniform and that includes Jaxson Dart. His rushing scores have kept his fantasy value afloat but keep in mind, he’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in two of his three starts.

With the Broncos getting healthier on defense as well, I think Denver puts an end to Dart’s unchecked aura farming.

Alright, let’s hit it. Here are my Week 7 sleepers based on matchup data (with a few other names mixed in as well).

QUARTERBACKS

Caleb Williams vs. NO

• The Saints have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position.

• Williams has been far from perfect but he’s been progressing. He averaged 208.5 passing yards his first two weeks, scoring four total touchdowns with one interception. Over his last three games, Williams has ballooned his passing numbers, averaging 254.0 yards per contest while scoring seven total touchdowns with one interception.

• His EPA per dropback has gone from -0.06 his first two games to 0.18.

Spencer Rattler vs. CHI

• The Bears have allowed two or more touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in four of their five games and have allowed the second-most total touchdowns per game to the position.

• Chicago is also fourth-worst in QB pressure rate while the 73.6% completion rate allowed is the second-worst mark in the NFL.

• Rattler has been playing pretty well! Since Week 2, he has racked up over 1,000 yards and has six TDs vs. one INT while completing 71.3% of his passes.

FADE: Sam Darnold vs. HOU

• It’s awfully hard to trust Darnold despite the fact that he’s been playing strong football. The Texans are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the position.

• Granted, matchups matter and the Texans have seen Cooper Rush and Cam Ward, but that being said, only Baker Mayfield was able to score more than 15 fantasy points against them. His 19.9 fantasy points tops the field, meaning Houston has yet to allow a 20-point scorer against it. That’s tough!

• The 58.8% completion rate allowed is third-best while the three touchdowns allowed (yes, just three!) lead the league. DeMeco Ryans has his boys locked in right now.

RUNNING BACKS

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. TEN

• We gotta stop wishcasting the TreVeyon Henderson breakout. Guys, he hasn’t played well enough to warrant the demands for playtime. Per Sports Info Solutions, Henderson is one of just two qualified running backs to fail to record a single broken tackle (min. 25 carries).

• That being said, I get the counterargument that Rhamondre hasn’t played well enough to warrant a massive 70% snap share. Both things can be true but all we can do is look at where we’re at right now and, for whatever reason, Stevenson continues to get a huge snap share.

• This week, he takes on a Titans defense that has given up the second-most touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Jordan Mason vs. PHI

• Philly has a great pass-rushing defensive line but not nearly as good at stopping the run. The Eagles are bottom-10 in yards after contact allowed, explosive run rate allowed and they’re dead last in run stuff rate. As a result, five of six starting backs they’ve faced have scored at least 15 PPR points against them.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. DAL

• Bill came up small in a smash spot against the Bears last week, but he’s got another terrific matchup this week against the Cowboys.

• The 'Boys have allowed 30+ PPR points in two of their last three games (Rico Dowdle: 33.9 FP, Josh Jacobs: 31.7 FP).

• I’d rather recommend starting him and have him “disappoint” with 9-10 points than leave him on the bench and watch him put up a 20-spot, which he absolutely could do in this matchup.

J.K. Dobbins vs. NYG

• The 5.49 ypc allowed to running backs by the Giants ranks as third-worst.

• Last week was a disaster, but if we exclude the bizarre London game, Dobbins was averaging a strong 5.2 ypc to start the season.

• The Broncos have leaned on Dobbins in goal-to-go situations; his eight carries from inside the 10 are tied for the 13th most. He’s tied with James Cook, Kyren Williams, Chase Brown and Ashton Jeanty, among others.

SMASH SPOT: Quinshon Judkins vs MIA

• Crazy stat: The Dolphins have allowed an opposing running back to score 20+ PPR points in four of their last five games. Breece Hall is the only starter in that span who didn’t crack 20; he scored 16.1 fantasy points.

• Miami is dead last in yards before contact and explosive run rate allowed to the position group. As a result, it's allowed the most rush yards and the most scrimmage yards to running backs.

• Expect a huge bounce back for Judkins after he flopped last week.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Troy Franklin vs. NYG

• The Giants have allowed the sixth-most receptions and the third-most yards to receivers lined up in the slot and, overall, they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to inside pass catchers.

• Franklin has played 60% of his snaps inside and his lone touchdown of the season came while he was lined up in the slot.

• I also like the fact that the G-Men have allowed the second-most receptions and yards on deep passes this year. If Franklin can rip one down the seams, he may find his second score of the season.

DEEP SLEEPER: Chris Moore vs DAL

• This one is a Sleeper King special, but if Terry McLaurin is out and if you’re desperate in redraft, or maybe you’re going to chase some wild variance in DFS, may I interest you in Chris Moore?

• He’s taking on Dallas and as we know, it simply cannot stop anyone from catching the ball. It's allowed the most fantasy points per game to outside receivers and Moore played 65% of his snaps out wide last week. He ran the second-most routes among all Washington receivers; in fact, he ran more routes than Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane COMBINED.

• The Cowboys have also allowed the most fantasy points per game on deep passes this year. This seems to pair perfectly with the long ball prowess of Jayden Daniels.

Hollywood Brown vs. LV

• After his huge game last week, it feels very much like we’re chasing points here with Hollywood, but I want to invest in this Kansas City passing game. Mahomes is heating up and he absolutely owns the Raiders.

• Vegas has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to outside receivers.

TIGHT ENDS

Mason Taylor vs. CAR

• Starting tight ends have scored at least 11.9 ppr points against the Panthers in four of their last five games. Overall, they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the position.

• Taylor obviously bombed last week (one reception, two yards) but everyone in a Jets uniform tanked last week.

• Back at home this week, Taylor has emerged as a reliable target for Justin Fields. Plus, with Garrett Wilson banged up, expect Taylor to see an even larger target share.

Jets head coach Aaron Glenn announced Friday that star wide receiver Garrett Wilson will be doubtful for the team's Week 7 matchup against the Panthers.

The first-year coach also said that CB Qwan'tez Stiggers and LB Cam Jones are also doubtful.

"Early on in practice, those guys will be working with the trainers and we'll see how it goes when they transition into practice," Glenn said.

Wilson was hobbled after the team's 13-11 loss to the Broncos in London last week, and underwent an MRI on his knee. Those tests indicated that Wilson did not sustain a serious injury, but could be sidelined "a couple of weeks."

The fact that the Jets did not rule Wilson out for Sunday's game, no matter how unlikely it is that he'll suit up, suggests the wideout may not be off the field for long. After Sunday's home game against the Panthers, the Jets will head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals before going on their bye. 

While Wilson is unlikely to be an option for quarterback Justin Fields, Josh Reynolds (hip) is likely to be after Glenn said the wideout will be a full participant in practice on Friday.

The Jets (0-6) are seeking their first win of the season. And while they won't have their best offensive weapon on the field, Glenn is focusing on getting the team's first win of the season.

"The focus of this week is winning this game, hands down, point blank. But also making sure we improve," he said. "There's no way to consistently win without improving. The guys have done a good job with that. We know we have a lot of work to do, we're not running away from where we are, but again, we're looking to improve."

After six weeks, Wilson has 36 receptions for 395 yards and four touchdowns.