Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through 10 storylines that will define the week. After nine weeks of chaos, how will the trends of fantasy football define Week 10?
Marvin Harrison Jr. with Jacoby Brissett
It was the Cowboys, but Marvin Harrison Jr. being a key part of the game plan proved true in Week 9. With Jacoby Brissett under center, Harrison received a 56% first-read target share, the highest of the week. Brissett is one of many recent veteran quarterbacks to have a mini-revival this season. After struggling as a starter in recent stints, Drew Petzing’s altered offense has led to 287 passing yards per game.
One key difference with having Brissett under center is that he has literally been under center. Kyler Murray played out of shotgun 79% of the time, one of the highest rates in the NFL. In comparison, Brissett currently sits at 53% (one of the lowest). For Harrison, this is life-changing. The Cardinals' star WRs yards per route increases by 69% (!!) on plays from under center compared to shotgun. The first two games with Brissett weren’t ideal, especially with the concussion, but the offense fits him much better. Trey McBride has averaged 18.5 fantasy PPG with Brissett, but can Harrison string together dominant performances as well?
Trey McBride w/ Brissett
You’ve seen the stat: McBride has more touchdowns in three games with Brissett than he does in two years with Murray. The fantasy TE1 goes from best to better without Murray, as his volume stays unbeatable. Over the last month with Brissett, McBride’s 11.0 targets per game are behind only four players who happen to be four of the top-five fantasy WRs on the season. His catch rate (69%) is the exact same as it was with Murray, but with a much further average depth of target.
McBride’s red zone usage, again, has gone from great to incredible. His 25% target share in the red area isn’t bad at all, but 55% with Brissett is superior. With Murray on IR and out for a minimum of four games, McBride will have the fourth-best fantasy TE schedule this month with his new QB. It starts off in Seattle this weekend, where the Seahawks have been stout against outside pass catchers but bottom-10 against slot receivers and tight ends.
The Joe Alt Affect
Most offenses are heavily affected after losing one offensive tackle; the Chargers have lost three. Joe Alt, their star LT, and Bobby Hart, the backup RT, both went down last Sunday. The difference between the offense with and without Alt in 2025 has been drastic, primarily for Justin Herbert. The passing game aggression drops off dramatically, as Herbert falls from the second-highest average depth of target to 24th when Alt is off the field. This has led to Herbert’s yards per attempt dropping out of the top five, all the way down to 24th. If that trend were to continue, the biggest change would be to WR Quentin Johnston, whose value lies the most on deep targets.
If the pocket can be kept clean, Herbert can shred opposing defenses. When he is pressured, however, his completion percentage drops from fourth to 30th, and yards per attempt from 13th to 26th in comparison to other QBs under pressure. The Steelers rank 28th versus fantasy QBs, but the TJ Watt-led defense also surprisingly has had a sub-par pressure rate on the year. With Herbert seeing a 14% decrease in fantasy points per snap without Alt, he falls closer to a borderline QB1 versus Pittsburgh compared to his top-five rank we’ve seen the last two weeks. If the Chargers find ways to protect Herbert without Alt will be a key to his success going forward.
Green Bay versus the new Eagles secondary
After being one of the most dominant secondaries to face in fantasy last season, the Eagles defense has had some weak points to exploit in 2025. That may no longer be the case after the Philadelphia bye week. Adoree Jackson was the Eagles' third corner and was being targeted the most in the NFL per route, making it easier to find advantageous matchups. This is shown best in the adjusted fantasy points allowed based on alignment, as the Eagles are eighth-best against ‘left’ WRs and 29th vs ‘right’ WRs. With Philly trading for CBs Michael Carter and Jaire Alexander, things begin to shift.
The main factor that causes this is Cooper DeJean potentially being moved to the outside. Carter played all 64 coverage snaps out of the slot as a member of the New York Jets, with DeJean primarily inside as well this season (74% of the time). The more balanced pass defense makes it more difficult for fantasy WRs to pay off expectations. The secondary, which ranked seventh-best versus fantasy WRs this season, clearly improves, setting Green Bay’s Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson up for difficult tests in Week 10.
Quinshon Judkins vs. new-look Jets
The New York Jets' rushing defense was 30th in yards after contact allowed on the season, and then they traded away Quinnen Williams. Quinshon Judkins' success has primarily been as a result of two factors: his fifth-best rate in yards after contact and good game scripts. The offense and offensive line have not been the greatest support system, but if Judkins finds himself with high volume in close games, his efficiency ultimately wins out.
Cleveland enters Week 10 as road favorites, something that hasn’t occurred too often in recent history. Judkins has scored over 40 fantasy points in the Browns' two wins this season, as nearly 100% of his production has come on the ground. Against the run specifically, the Jets adjusted defensive rank versus RBs ranks 25th. Losing Williams, who ranks second in run stop win rate this season, is not going to help the trend reverse course.
Drake London vs. Sauce Gardner
The Colts enter Week 10 as the fourth-best matchup for opposing fantasy receivers, and yet, are a bad matchup. Indianapolis has recently seen Jaylon Jones and Kenny Moore return from injury to bolster the secondary, and top it off by trading for first-team All-Pro CB Sauce Gardner. Indianapolis has consistently used its top corner to shadow opposing top WRs, but it’s unclear if Gardner will be traveling with London on less than a week's notice.
The matchup is much worse than the numbers suggest, but London, as proven just last week, can be plenty fine in tough spots. Christian Gonzalez shadowed London in Week 9, but with the combination of offensive creativity and incredible contested catches, London soared to the overall WR1 on the week. When the Falcons got inside the 10-yard line, London played the majority of snaps in the slot, where three of his four end zone targets came from. This got him away from Gonzalez and onto smaller corners to best utilize his strengths in the red zone. The trade makes an exciting matchup (sadly), but the Falcons scheme with London keeps my confidence high.
Bears' backfield split?
After 31 fantasy opportunities for Kyle Monangai in Week 9, D’Andre Swift managers have begun to worry. When Swift returns, will his fantasy value have taken too much of a hit? I, for one, don’t expect a huge dropoff. First off, Swift was not a bellcow beforehand. Since the Week 5 bye, Chicago was giving 35% of the RB touches to Monangai while Swift saw 62%. That led to a strong 16 touches per game and 20 fantasy PPG for the Bears' lead back. The situation Swift finds himself in is enough, despite not dominating the touches.
It may not be 20 PPG, but I believe Swift will still lead the way with 60% of the Chicago RB touches. He has been trusted with the most valuable volume coming at the goal line and in the passing game. Monangai has been good, but Swift hasn’t been close to playing himself off the field. For example, Swift’s success rate on the ground this season is nearly the exact same as the rookie Monangai. The skill set Swift provides should keep him as a confident fantasy option in a growing offense.
Nico Collins with Davis Mills
Nico Collins' up-and-down year hits another fork in the road. C.J. Stroud will not play on Sunday, leaving the offense to backup Davis Mills. On 30 passing attempts in Week 9, Mills targeted Collins on 28% of his routes, plenty enough even with lower efficiency possible. The combo of Jacksonville’s secondary and coverage schemes matches up well for Collins. The Jaguars are the best in the NFL at facing slot WRs, but rank 30th versus wideouts on the outside. Collins can still be a viable option lining up out wide on 83% of routes.
Jakobi Meyers in Jacksonville
Jakobi Meyers’ birthday wish came true as he was traded out of Las Vegas. He now gets the league’s second-toughest matchup versus the Texans in Week 10 on his birthday. If you believe in the birthday narrative, you would at least have been right before. Meyers has played on his B-Day twice in the past, averaging 22.3 fantasy PPG with a touchdown in each.
I’d expect Meyers to slide into the slot role in Jacksonville eventually, which, in the past with Trevor Lawrence, has shown to have great value. Lawrence targets the slot 31% of the time, and leads the league in WR target percentage (69%) ever since TE Brenton Strange went down to injury. For now, Liam Coen plans to deploy Meyers on the outside as his new WR adjusts to his new team. With no Brian Thomas Jr., volume could be at a premium right away. Jacksonville brought Meyers in as a long-term addition and can provide value the rest of the season if he secures this slot role.
Rome Odunze vs. Giants
Rome Odunze has made fantasy managers very sad in three of the last four weeks. After a zero in Week 9, Odunze is set up better this week for managers who don’t feel completely burnt by his latest performances. The biggest factor of the week is the Giants' man coverage rate. So far in 2025, no team has run more man coverage than New York, and no WR is more affected by coverages than Odunze. When the Bears' opponents are not in zone coverage, Odunze has seen 81% more fantasy production on a per-route basis.
Even after his low volume weeks, Odunze has been targeted on 32% of his routes versus man coverage. A key area to watch is the Bears' red zone usage. After starting off with a 31% red zone target share, Odunze has only been targeted in the red zone twice since the bye. He needs to capitalize on his man-to-man matchups and earn targets in the red zone to begin to gain the trust of fantasy managers back in Week 10.
