Week 7 has multiple shootouts on tap, giving fantasy managers some great options to choose from for their FLEX choices. These are my favorite starts and my biggest fades ahead of Sunday's game.
▶ Quarterback
Start: Dak Prescott, Cowboys
The Cowboys and Commanders are squaring off for a “fantasy in bio” game of the year. Washington has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing passers, while the Cowboys lead the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Vegas has this matchup with a 54.5-point total, the highest of the season. With CeeDee Lamb making his return, there’s nothing stopping Prescott from a top-five fantasy outing this week.
Start: Jared Goff, Lions
Speaking of shootouts, the Lions play host to the Bucs this week in a game with a 52.5 total. Goff has played in three games that saw more than 50 points scored this year. He has nine passing touchdowns in those contests. Detroit’s 29.5 team total is the highest of the week. The Bucs have given up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing passers this year and rank 20th in EPA per play allowed through the air. Both Goff and Baker Mayfield are must-starts this week.
Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
The great city of Cleveland is giving us our first weather game of the year.
The total has dropped from 43.5 at open to 37.5 as of Friday morning. Miami's team total of 17 is the second-lowest of the week. We’re going to see a record-setting number of carries and check-downs in this game. Tua should be avoided, even in Superflex leagues.
Sit: C.J. Stroud, Texans
The road-tripping Texans have a 19.25 team total. That is lower than the Dillon Gabriel-led Browns and the Garrett Wilson-less Jets. They get a Seattle defense that ranks 12th in pressure rate despite blitzing at the lowest clip in the NFL. Stroud has struggled mightily against pressure this year. PFF has him graded as their No. 29 passer when pressured. He has two interceptions and no touchdowns on these dropbacks. The Texans' offense has been sluggish at best this year. Facing Mike Macdonald’s defense in Seattle won’t make a Week 7 turnaround likely.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 7’s top plays at quarterback.
▶ Running Back
Start: J.K. Dobbins, Broncos
Dobbins busted last week with a grand total of four PPR points, but his role remained the same. He was responsible for 64 percent of the Broncos’ carries and ran a route on 39 percent of the team’s dropbacks. Both marks were slightly above his season-long averages. He out-carried his backups 14-3. The Giants are an above-average matchup for Dobbins in terms of fantasy points allowed, in which they rank 11th. They are even better for him in the advanced numbers. The G-Men rank 27th in EPA allowed on the ground. It’s a clear get-right spot for Dobbins this week.
Start: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
Stevenson is never a fun start, but he has to be considered as a touchdown favorite over the lowly Titans. Tennessee ranks 24th in EPA per rush attempt allowed. More importantly, they are facing more carries from opposing backs than all but one team, the Bengals. The Titans give up 24.5 running back carries per game. Antonio Gibson suffered a torn ACL in Week 5. In Week 6, Stevenson set a season-high in carry share at 54 percent. His role is as good as ever and he gets one of the best matchups in the league for running back production.
Sit: Kenneth Walker, Seahawks
Yardage is nice for fantasy managers, but the easy points come from catches and touchdowns. In five games with Zach Charbonnet active, the latter has out-carried Walker 19-10 in the red zone and 6-0 inside the five. Charbonnet also has a 68-46 routes advantage when both backs are healthy. Even when looking at just rush attempts, Charbonnet holds a slight lead. Walker is the lesser half of a committee and doesn’t see the high-value opportunities. He is more of a weekly FLEX play than an RB2 at this point.
Sit: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
The Panthers are on track for a true backfield-by-committee in the wake of consecutive explosions from Rico Dowdle. Dowlde currently ranks fifth in rushing yards off the back of 389 in two games with Hubbard sidelined. Hubbard was limited in practice for most of the week and is competing with a top-five rusher for carries. Dowdle is besting him in all of the efficiency metrics this year and Hubbard is coming off a multi-week injury. The risk simply isn’t worth the reward for fantasy managers in his first game back.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 7’s top plays at running back.
▶ Wide Receiver
Start: Rashee Rice, Chiefs
It’s all systems go for Rice out of the gates. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote point-blank, “The Chiefs won’t be easing Rashee Rice back into action.” That’s about as clear as it gets as far as NFL reporting goes. Rice was on pace for historic numbers last year. His 28/288/2 line through three games in 2024 would have been good for 136/1,632/12 and a WR2 overall finish for the season. Even if he doesn’t get back that pace right away, he’ll do enough to hit the WR2 ranks.
Start: Luther Burden, Bears
This is a conditional start, but one that needs to be mentioned. DJ Moore is banged up and looks to be truly questionable for Week 7. If he doesn’t play, it’s wheels up for Burden. The second-round rookie ranks top-five among all wideouts in yards per route run (3.1) and yards after the catch per reception (7.7). Burden already worked his way into a larger role last week. He ran 39 percent of the routes and earned a 14 percent target share. Neither number makes him worth starting on its own, but his increasing role shows the Bears' desire to get him more involved. Burden is going to the moon if Moore doesn’t play.
Sit: Ladd McConkey, Chargers
As a McConkey stan, this one hurts to write. When Quentin Johnston was on the field for the first five weeks, he was running circles around McConkey. Johnston had a 23 percent target share and a 36 percent air yards share. McConkey was at 20 and 22 percent. Johnston — along with Keenan Allen — had 34 first-read targets compared to 23 for McConkey. The team was treating Johnston and Allen like co-WR1s while Ladd was left to fend for WR3 scraps. With Johnston expected to play this week, it looks like McConkey’s 7/100/1 line from Week 6 will go down as an anomaly.
Sit: Kayshon Boutte, Patriots
I’m not doing this song and dance with Boutte again. He popped up for 103 yards in Week 1 and was held to 105 yards over his next four games combined. Boutte then hit for another big game with two scores against the Saints. The difference between his boom and bust games comes down to which defenses are vulnerable to deep shots. The Raiders and Saints — his opponents in Weeks 1 and 6 — have faced the 11th and 7th-most deep throws this year. His other four opponents have all been below-average in deep targets allowed. The Titans, whom he faces in Week 7, are allowing the fourth-fewest deep targets this year.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 7’s top plays at receiver.
▶ Tight End
Start: Harold Fannin Jr., Browns
While passing production might be scarce for both teams in Cleveland on Sunday, that shouldn’t be an issue for Fannin. The rookie has the third most targets (25), catches (21), and yards (171) on throws 1-9 yards downfield. He leads the Browns in catches and yards. With David Njoku likely out for Week 7, Fannin is going to dominate a check-down-heavy Browns passing game.
Start: Michael Mayer, Raiders
Brock Bowers is out again this week. Mayer drew the start in Week 6 and did his best Bowers impression with five grabs for 50 yards and a touchdown. His advanced metrics were even better. Mayer ran 80 percent of the routes and earned a monstrous 32 percent target share. He managed a 28 percent air yards share despite a running back level aDOT of 2.4. He’s not Bowers, but the fantasy check cashes all the same.
Sit: Travis Kelce, Chiefs
Kelce has come to life in recent weeks with 13 receptions for 139 yards and a touchdown over his past two outings. With Rice back in the lineup, I don’t expect him to stay hot, especially in a game Vegas doesn’t expect to be close.
Kelce was a non-factor with Rice on the field last year, averaging a pitiful five fantasy points over the first three weeks. Rice operates in a similar part of the field and is far more effective than his aging tight end teammate. I would rather be a week early to sitting Kelce than a week late.
Sit: Juwan Johnson, Saints
The fabled “Juwan Johnson role” is disappearing before our eyes. Johnson posted a 24 percent target share over the first three weeks of the season. That number is down to 11 percent over his past three appearances. His target rate (targets per route) is also down from 24 percent to 12 percent. Chris Olave is still dominating targets while both Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara are getting more involved through the air. Johnson, in turn, is barely clinging to TE2 life.
Ranking and evaluating all of Week 7’s top plays at tight end, kicker, and defense.
Patrick Daugherty
