More dueling Monday Night Football games divide our attention to conclude Week 6, but unlike Week 4, both are compelling games.
In the first matchup, the Buffalo Bills will take the field trying to remember what it’s like to play on the road, as they haven’t in almost a month. Meanwhile, you’d forgive the Atlanta Falcons if their memory needs some jogging, as they haven’t played at all in 15 days.
”Rest” vs. “Road” would be a not-overly-creative headline for this inter-conference matchup, but it’s applicable to the handicap of a game where both sides are looking to make a statement to a national audience.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Buffalo Bills (-4, 50) at Atlanta Falcons
The Bills’ upset loss to the Patriots as 8-point favorites could be attributed to uncharacteristic turnovers (two fumbles and an interception), but the signs were there that Buffalo might be vulnerable.
The Bills took far too long to separate from the Dolphins and Saints for their bettors' liking, in a pair of home games where they were favored by double-digits against two of the weaker teams in the NFL. So, when a more capable group came to visit, Buffalo lost because of turnovers, but with the boxscore numbers otherwise even (yards almost equal, both teams 2-for-4 in the red zone), the Bills would have had no business covering a big number at home even without the turnovers.
An outright loss has finally forced the betting market to notice that the Bills have flaws. They ran with the Ravens as the two highest-rated teams for three weeks, but while Baltimore has bottomed out with its injuries, it’s clear that Buffalo is not notably better than some of the league’s other contenders.
If you rated the Bills on a scale of 100, their win total of 12.5 before the season would set the Bills at 70 out of 100 — the rating that made them such big favorites in Weeks 3 and 4.
After three straight non-covers, while that rating has come down, being 4-point road favorites against a capable team like the Falcons, means Buffalo’s only been downgraded into the mid-60s, despite a defense that has one of the worst EPA/play metrics against the opponent’s run game.
The Falcons have seen a similar souring from the betting market from a recent game, because a 30-0 loss at Carolina jumps off the page. Following that with a home win over the Commanders without Jayden Daniels hasn’t brought Atlanta’s rating back up to even that of a league-average team.
When we look at Atlanta’s metrics, the story is a little different.
Defensively, the Falcons are one of a handful of teams that are notably above average in both opponent EPA/play on dropbacks and on running plays (when filtered for turnovers and garbage time).
Offensively, Atlanta’s results have been mixed. The Falcons struggled in the run game in Week 1, but the entire offensive line pleaded with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson not to change a thing, taking responsibility for poor execution. A week later, Bijan Robninson and Tyler Allegeier combined for 219 rushing yards.
Even if the Falcons’ offense comes out of the wash as merely average as a whole, they get a positive matchup for their run game against the Bills. Mix in an underrated, above-average defense and the Falcons’ rating in the market should probably be higher. Meanwhile, with three straight losses against the spread, there’s still room for Buffalo’s to come down, which sets up for a valuable bet on the home underdog.
Pick: Falcons +4.5
Player props
TE Dalton Kincaid: Over 37.5 receiving yards (-110)
If this was a fantasy football article, we’d be referencing Kincaid as having either a touchdown or 100 yards in all but one game this season (Week 2 vs. Jets, when the game was decided by the second quarter). So, why is this number so low for a player who’s gone over his total in all but one game this season?
At 2.0 receptions and 17.25 yards per game, the Falcons have allowed the lowest average production to opposing tight ends. However, those numbers are potentially a small-sample anomaly. Here’s a list of quarterback-tight end combinations that Atlanta has faced so far:
Week 1: Baker Mayfield-Cade Otton
Week 2: J.J. McCarthy-T.J. Hockenson
Week 3: Bryce Young-Tommy Tremble/Ja’Tavion Sanders
Week 4: Marcus Mariota-Zach Ertz
The Allen-Kincaid combination won’t be dissuaded by the Falcons’ success against offenses that don’t focus on getting the ball to a star tight end.
RB Tyler Allgeier: Over 30.5 rushing yards (-110)
Only the Dolphins defense has a worse EPA/play against the run than the Bills. Bijan Robinson is an option here too, but going into their bye week, Robinson was able to accrue big yardage as a receiver, while Allgeier was relied upon to close the game out against Washington on the ground.
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Big running backs, like Derrick Henry, Ollie Gordon and Kendre Miller, have had great per-carry success running straight through the middle of the Bills’ defense. With 10+ carries in three of four games, if Allgeier gets near that, he should manage to clear 30 yards.
Anytime touchdown
TE Dalton Kincaid (+250)
With three touchdowns already this season, Kincaid’s already surpassed his second year touchdown total, indicating he’s more of a priority near the end zone for Allen, as well as between the 20s.
WR Joshua Palmer (+525)/WR Curtis Samuel (+600)
The Bills’ “everybody eats” offense works for them, but it’s a nightmare to handicap for anytime touchdowns.
If the premise is that anyone can score at any time, why not split a unit on the two receivers who are on the field for at least 33% of the offensive snaps, and whose odds are +500 or longer?
Both Palmer and Samuel can be found in the slot, so they’ll likely avoid the difficult matchup that the return of A.J. Terrell (back after missing two-and-a-half games) provides.
In his second game of the season, Samuel had a play drawn up for him to score, and can be used out of the backfield in the red zone.
WR Drake London (+150)
London was a touchdown machine last season, finishing the year with nine of his 100 receptions ending in a score. Part of that may have had to do with a strong red-zone connection with veteran Kirk Cousins, but three came with Michael Penix at the end of the season.
The Falcons only have three passing touchdowns this season, with London hauling in just one through four games, but with some time off to self-scout during the bye week, look for Atlanta to scheme open their best red-zone target, finding a matchup away from the Bills’ top corner, Christian Benford (who’s actually struggled this season, garnering a PFF grade that’s 76th at the position – and only that high due to his ability to support against the run).
WR Ray-Ray McCloud (+500)/WR Casey Washington (+525)
Let’s break a unit across a pair of receivers who are going to be asked to fill in for Falcons WR Darnell Mooney, who’s been ruled out with a hamstring injury.
When Mooney wasn’t ready for Week 1, Washington played 95% of the snaps, while McCloud was out there 72% of the time. Then last week, both played a significant amount for the Falcons, with Mooney going out again. If all eyes are on London, Penix might find the lesser-known options are open.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.