Fantasy Football Target Trends: Jameson Williams party just getting started with end-of-season schedule a dream
Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let’s open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions
It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for the Lions since their Week 8 bye. They’re 1-2 since the reboot, and the offense did not play well in last week’s 16-9 loss at Philadelphia. But the Lions did figure out one key thing during the bye, and it’s been obvious to all viewers — they unlocked Williams.
Williams is the WR2 in cumulative scoring over the last three weeks, scoring a touchdown in each game. He’s been more of a priority to the offense, drawing 20 targets in these three games after seeing just 30 targets in his first seven games. He has a long reception (37 yards or more) in each recent start. Obviously Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are going to keep significant market shares, too, but perhaps Williams can keep this new role bump going forward — especially with TE Sam LaPorta out at least three more games.
The Lions tend to play their best ball indoors, on a fast track. This is where the schedule lines up perfectly. Detroit doesn’t play another outdoor game until Week 18 at Chicago, a week after most fantasy seasons end. The final chunk of the season could be a Williams party. Stay warm indoors and get your popcorn ready.
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Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers
I fielded some Pearsall start-sit questions last week, and I’m sure the consistent response was “play the other guy.” Pearsall was returning to action after missing five games with a knee injury, and in instances like that, I usually prefer a show-me week before I return the player to previous expectations. A star I might use right away, but Pearsall isn’t quite in that class yet.
So did Pearsall show enough to get back into fantasy lineups? Perhaps.
The box score was lean — three targets, one catch, zero yards. But Pearsall’s secondary stats were encouraging. He ran 23 routes on 27 passing plays, and he was on the field for 41 of 55 offensive snaps (the same count as Jauan Jennings, and two more snaps than Christian McCaffrey). The Niners took their time to be sure Pearsall was right, but this much involvement Sunday shows the wraps are completely off.
San Francisco could be a fun fantasy offense down the stretch. Brock Purdy, George Kittle, McCaffrey, Jennings, Pearsall, they all look healthy now. Meanwhile, the 49ers are missing tons of key personnel on defense, including their two best defenders, Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. We might see a lot of pinball football with the Niners in the weeks to come, so let’s be proactive with this offense. Pearsall is part of that plan.
Troy Franklin, WR, Broncos
Denver doesn’t play in Week 12, but it’s a good time to reflect on the young skill talent in their offense. RJ Harvey is a definite hold for me. I know he didn’t pop in the Kansas City game, but Harvey took 38 snaps while Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin had just eight each. Wait for it, gamers. This backfield is going to be The Harvey Show.
But targets are ostensibly the main theme of this article, and the targets show that Franklin is stepping up as the No. 1 receiver in Denver. Consider the last five weeks, where Franklin has a 22-259-4 log on 45 targets. That’s led him to a WR16 grade in half-point PPR scoring per week. Meanwhile, Courtland Sutton has posted 18-267-1, on 34 targets. He’s the WR41 in this sample.
Franklin’s breakout is backed up in the red-zone stats. For the last five weeks, he’s seen seven red-zone targets, turning them into six catches and three touchdowns. Franklin also has three two-point conversion catches, and I’ve always maintained those plays reflect future goal-line equity. Meanwhile, Sutton’s red-zone role has diminished during the same span: four targets, one catch, no touchdowns.
Maybe this all shouldn’t come as a big surprise, with Franklin being eight years younger and running reps with Bo Nix at Oregon. Sutton’s value doesn’t reset to zero, and some of his diminished returns are tied to opponents shadowing him with top coverage. But there’s more than enough evidence to move Franklin to the head of this target tree.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs
There was much rejoicing when Worthy landed in Kansas City after the 2024 NFL Draft. Worthy had a speed-merchant profile at Texas and was comped to DeSean Jackson, one of the all-time game wreckers. When you wanted to take a top off a defense, you sent the electric Jackson downfield.
Worthy, alas, has not been Jackson 2.0, not even close. He’s at 10.7 YPC for his career, and down at 10.4 YPC this year (Jackson retired at 17.6 YPC and led the NFL in that stat four times). Worthy has scored just one touchdown in 2025. He hasn’t even topped 55 yards since Week 4. Fantasy managers have been patient, but that patience might be wearing thin.
It’s not like the Chiefs aren’t trying to spring Worthy downfield. He has a 12.5 aDOT for the year, which ranks 23rd among the 110 wideouts and tight ends who have at least 20 catches. It’s a bigger number than Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it’s higher than Tetairoa McMillan, it’s past Justin Jefferson and Drake London. Worthy is running the routes downfield, they’re just not popping.
Before we start pointing fingers at Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, consider this — the Chiefs actually do have one dynamic field stretcher on the roster this year. It’s Tyquan Thornton. Yes, the small sample caveats will apply, but Thornton averages a silly 24.8 yards on his 15 catches. He’s scored three touchdowns. He’s only seen five targets in the last four games, but one of them was a 61-yard catch and one of them was a 39-yard catch. He's screaming for a bigger role, hiding in plain sight.
The main takeaway for fantasy managers is to lower Worthy in your ranks until we see signs of a rebound. But as the Chiefs do self scouting and try to work out of a 5-5 hole, I wonder if they’ll come to a pretty simple conclusion — the unheralded Thornton needs to play more.
Top-5 target earners at each position from Week 11
Wide Receiver
Player | Targets | Receptions | Target Share |
Michael Wilson, Cardinals | 18 | 15 | 32.1% |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks | 12 | 9 | 28.6% |
Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers | 12 | 8 | 27.3% |
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions | 12 | 2 | 33.3% |
A.J. Brown, Eagles | 11 | 7 | 40.7% |
Running back
Player | Targets | Receptions | Target Share |
Ashton Jeanty, Raiders | 8 | 6 | 20.5% |
Chase Brown, Bengals | 8 | 6 | 20.5% |
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions | 8 | 5 | 22.2% |
Kenneth Gainwell, Steelers | 8 | 7 | 27.6% |
Michael Carter, Cardinals | 7 | 5 | 12.5% |
Tight end
Player | Targets | Receptions | Target Share |
Travis Kelce, Chiefs | 13 | 9 | 30.2% |
Brock Bowers, Raiders | 12 | 7 | 30.8% |
Trey McBride, Cardinals | 11 | 10 | 19.6% |
AJ Barner, Seahawks | 11 | 10 | 26.2% |
Dalton Schultz, Texans | 9 | 6 | 22.5% |