Each Monday, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth will go over 10 important stats that you may have overlooked from this week. Week 12 had plenty of notable stats. What keys to fantasy success do you need to know that your leaguemates may have missed?
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70.0%
Kenneth Walker III’s percent of Seattle RB touches, the only time a Seahawks RB has crossed 60% on the season. This is Walker’s second straight game of 100+ scrimmage yards. Zach Charbonnet was the clear RB2 on Sunday as his first touch came with two minutes left in the first half. The two areas that have shown improvement are the receiving and red-zone work. In Week 12, the red-zone work (including the two goal-line attempts) was split 50-50, not perfect, but better. In terms of receiving, Walker tied his season high in routes that he set last week. However, the percentage of RB routes increased from 51.6% to 72.7%.
Walker has been consistently improving for the first time this season and can be a lower-end fantasy RB2 the rest of the season, with a chance at returning to his RB1 level of play we saw in 2024.
72.4%
Of the Patriots' RB touches went to TreVeyon Henderson, easily a career high in games with Rhamondre Stevenson available. Henderson's previous high was 52% all the way back in Week 1. Although it wasn’t an elite fantasy day, it was another day of elite usage with 21 touches, bringing his average over the last month to 19.5 per game. A 20-touch RB is gold in an offense that ranks seventh in scoring.
The two worries with Stevenson’s return were that the volume would dip and the red-zone work would disappear. The first worry was avoided with Stevenson only recording seven touches. The second wasn’t great, but it was an improvement. After the other New England backs were stuffed at the goal line three times in one drive, Henderson ultimately had the final goal-line attempt on the day, his first since Week 4 with Stevenson available. With Henderson’s success rate in the red zone being better than Stevenson’s, hopefully, more changes are coming for the Patriots' RB usage.
2.4
Rushing fantasy PPG since Week 2 for Lamar Jackson. Ever since his big rushing day to open the season, Jackson’s rushing volume and production fell off dramatically. In comparison, the Ravens’ QB averaged 6.4 rushing PPG last season on 7.5 QB runs per game (excluding kneels). We have seen Jackson play in eight games this season, and his QB runs per game sit at 4.9. This has mainly been due to playcalling. His designed runs have been cut in half this season from 4.8 per game in 2024 to 2.4. Over the last four games since returning from injury, it’s been even lower.
The conservative attack has made him more pass-dependent, leading to three floor games in a row as Baltimore has just one passing touchdown in November. The good news is that the schedule coming up is incredible. The Ravens stay in the division over the next three weeks with Cincinnati twice and Pittsburgh (ranking 31st and 27th vs. passing fantasy points). He will then play New England (29th) before getting Green Bay (8th) to end the fantasy playoffs. Other good news is that the Ravens will need his rushing production in big moments. The only good rushing game of the season came versus Buffalo to open the year, a primetime spot versus top competition. With a 6-5 record, Baltimore may need to lean on Jackson’s rushing more going forward, especially in big-time games versus playoff teams.
27-15
The snap advantage for Kyle Monangai after D’Andre Swift fumbled this Sunday. Swift started the game with 11 snaps to Monangai’s seven, but after his fumble in the second quarter, the rookie RB became the focus. He also had nine of the 12 remaining RB touches as Swift only had three in the final 42 minutes of game action.
The main hit Swift has taken with the rise of Monangai has come in the receiving game. With the Bears utilizing the RBs the same way rather than having distinct roles, Swift has simply not been on the field enough on passing downs to carve out consistent passing production. Monangai now has more routes over the last two weeks of the two running backs, and only six fewer since Swift returned in Week 10.
43.5
Jacoby Brissett’s pass attempts per game this season, the highest in the NFL. QB volume is just as important as any other position. Over the last two weeks without Marvin Harrison Jr., Brissett has thrown the ball 106 times. Michael Wilson has been dominant over the two-game stretch with 10+ receptions and 100+ yards in each. Although Harrison is returning, I don’t think he replaces Wilson 1-to-1.
In Weeks 7-10, when both Cardinals WRs were playing with Brissett, Wilson played exactly one fewer snap than his counterpart. Harrison led the way with a 26% target share, nearly double Wilson’s, but does that change going forward? Not only were the targets high in this pass-heavy attack, but Wilson’s target share was 32% with an impressive catch rate of 76% these past two weeks. It’s hard to believe that it will drop all the way back down. I believe Wilson can still be of use while also hurting Harrison upon his return next week. Either way, Brissett himself will continue to be a great option in fantasy as he’s currently the QB4 since his first start in Week 6.
88.0%
The percent of snaps played for Devin Neal after the Alvin Kamara injury. I had this same stat last week for Emanuel Wilson. A RB that is on the field constantly can be of use to anybody. Neal’s snap rate over the last three quarters would’ve been the third-best on the week, behind only Jonathan Taylor and Chase Brown. Neal's primary role in a trailing game was as a receiving back, running 37 routes, the most among any RB in Week 12.
The fantasy production wasn’t dominant, but 14 opportunities are great for a backup RB in a shortened time as the RB1. All of the RB touches went to Neal following the injury, along with Taysom Hill getting increased work. With depth lacking at this time of year, Neal could provide some relief in Week 13 against a Miami defense that’s been friendly to fantasy RBs this season.
2.8%
Touchdowns per target for CeeDee Lamb this season. In 2023, with Dak Prescott, Lamb’s rate was 6.6%, resulting in 12 TDs. Even with George Pickens in Dallas, Lamb’s TD total has been lower than expected this season when compared to his targets. In games with Pickens this season, Lamb has more red-zone targets as well as goal-line targets. Dak Prescott’s touchdowns per attempt is nearly identical to the Cowboys' 2023 season, leading me to believe that better days are still ahead for Lamb.
Of players with 72 targets or more (Lamb’s 2025 total), only Jerry Jeudy and Zay Flowers have fewer scores. Flowers' red-zone usage is almost non-existent and Jeudy’s QB play will keep him low, but Lamb has both of what they lack. For example, Pickens has six more touchdowns this season on just 20 more targets. Lamb is currently averaging 13.9 half-PPR PPG in complete games this season. If he were to have the 6.6% TD/Target he had in 2023, his production would still rise to 16.3 PPG.
86.1%
Puka Nacua’s route share with Tyler Higbee on IR. Since returning from injury, Nacua’s route share has been much lower with more involvement from the TE position, failing to cross 70% once. With Higbee moving to IR, however, Nacua ran just one fewer route than Davante Adams. A huge reason why is that Adams only played two snaps out of the Rams 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs).
Although the general route share was much better, the red-zone routes were not fully back. His routes compared to Adams in the red zone stayed exactly the same, running only two routes inside the 20 and targeted once. Hopefully, his red-zone work increases as well, but Nacua’s playing time bumping back up is great for his floor going forward. In his five games with over 70% of routes run, Nacua averaged 12.4 targets per game. In the other five games, it dropped down to 7.2.
14-3
The route differential between Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet in 1TE sets. Last week, it was 9-6 in favor of Kmet. Loveland’s overall route share has been increasing throughout the season and peaked at 70.3% on Sunday. That’s the highest this season in a game where Kmet wasn’t dealing with an injury.
After Loveland’s ceiling performance versus Cincinnati, he has averaged 10.5 PPR PPG in his three games. That is solid TE1 numbers, but what makes it more impressive is it’s not via good QB play. Caleb Williams has been in a slump, averaging only 217 pass yards with a total of four passing touchdowns. In those three games, the rookie TE has 22% of the Bears receiving fantasy points. If Williams can get it going, Loveland would move from a fringe TE1 to a solidified option.
10.2
Fantasy PPG for Evan McPherson since Joe Flacco became the starter. That would be fifth-best among kickers this season after scoring 8+ fantasy points in five straight games. After not having a single game with multiple field goal attempts to begin the year, McPherson has had multiple tries in five of the six games with Flacco as the Bengals offense has turned it around. If you want the full list of kicker research for the fantasy playoffs, the link is below.