Each Monday, fantasy analyst Joel Smyth will go over 10 important stats that you may have overlooked from this week. Week 10 had plenty of notable stats. What keys to fantasy football success do you need to know that your leaguemates may have missed?
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2.25
Justin Herbert’s average time to throw in Week 10, the fastest of any quarterback. With the Chargers offensive line filling up IR spots, the Los Angeles offense took a new approach on Sunday Night Football. Rather than holding onto the ball at a top-10 rate, Herbert got the ball out fast as Los Angeles used quick throws and screens to help alleviate QB pressure. The Chargers’ average depth of throw was 4.7, well below the 7.9 mark from the prior.
We’ve seen the less downfield aggression become a consistent trend when the OL isn’t fully healthy for Herbert. Oddly enough, the biggest benefactor in terms of usage on Sunday was Quentin Johnston. The Chargers' typical downfield WR had an average depth of target of 3.4 yards while being used in the quick screen game. McConkey was the downfield threat of the day, but the main worry comes with Keenan Allen. The veteran wideout ran significantly fewer routes and was not given the easy-designed targets that Johnston and others received. Johnston had six targets at or behind the line of scrimmage compared to Allen’s one. With the Chargers adapting to their weaknesses, Johnston gets a bump to his floor while Allen’s becomes more dependent on the ability to protect the passer.
44.5%
Of TreVeyon Henderson’s fantasy points this season that have come from his five explosive carries over the last three weeks, adding two more in Week 10. After the first four carries of the game went to Terrell Jennings, panic started to ensue once again for Henderson managers. Mike Vrabel and the Patriots have consistently limited the rookie RB's usage whenever possible. After both Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson went down to injury, Henderson wasn’t being trusted with red zone work. It was also a major red flag when Henderson wasn't getting carries early in Week 10. The question becomes, does his breakout performance change things going forward?
That’s the same question that’s been asked time and time again this season, which leads me to think the answer will again be no. Henderson has earned a role, but I still believe it’s unlikely he's earned the role, of being a workhorse, every-down back. Henderson’s 20 opportunities in Week 9, paired with his two explosive touchdowns in Week 10, make me confident he’ll get enough usage week-to-week to be startable in fantasy, but the lack of trust is still evident. Jennings, a practice squad fourth-string running back, was still the go-to red zone runner when healthy over Henderson. It took all three New England running backs getting hurt for Henderson to see his first two goal-line attempts since Week 4 on Sunday. Him failing to capitalize on those attempts doesn’t give me any confidence that usage will continue when another RB is available. The talent is clear and the offense is great. That alone makes him a solid option in this offense, but I do believe we’re a few steps away from Henderson being a week-to-week fantasy start.
14
Snaps played by Jordan Mason on Sunday. With Aaron Jones returning a few weeks ago, the question was which Vikings RB would lead the committee? Going off of recency bias, it’s Jones, not just as the 1A of the committee, but a full-time RB. Mason's snap share was 67% without Jones, but dropped all the way to 23.0% in Week 10. Counting just the snaps before the fourth quarter, Mason played seven total plays after increasing his snap share in each game from Weeks 1-7. His 13.8 PPG as a starter has dipped to a mere 4.3 with Jones healthy this season.
Even when Mason was getting the snaps, there were too many obstacles to overcome. The Vikings' scoring offense has dropped from ninth in 2024 to 23rd this year. With only three targets over the last month, Mason is fully dependent on a strong rushing offense and team as a whole, and Jones getting the goal-line carry for a score on Sunday was the icing on the cake. Mason is fully dependent on Jones' health and matchup dependent if he were to get a spot start in the future.
13
Designed red zone carries for Jaxson Dart, 2x more than any QB in the NFL since Week 4. Rushing QBs are always a cheat code in fantasy, and red zone rushing is the most valuable of it all. For Dart, 33.5 fantasy points have come from those 13 carries, bumping his fantasy PPG from 18.1 to 22.9, the difference between being a low-end streaming QB1 and a weekly top-five option.
The New York Giants offense is built around Dart’s skillset and suffers when he’s out of the lineup. For Dart, the lack of weapons in New York isn’t as much of a negative since he relies heavily on designed rushing usage. His 11.1% designed run rate is the best in the NFL and has led to a rushing TD in five consecutive games. No quarterback is within 10 carries of Dart since he took over for Russell Wilson, providing a dominant floor. As long as the Giants continue to use Dart on the ground post-concussion, he will be a top QB option in the most important time of the season.
72%
D’Andre Swift’s RB touch percentage after his one-game absence, 10% more than his previous three games following the Bears’ bye week. Chicago is a great situation for fantasy RBs, keeping Swift as a top option even with Kyle Monangai taking a chunk of work. Swift’s role seems solidified in this offense as he started for the Bears and was the key RB in crunch time even after Monangai had over 30 opportunities in Week 9.
One key note, the Bears RBs look to be interchangeable, although Swift provides a different skillset. The Chicago running backs split work by drive for the majority of the time, rather than having the more common down-by-down roles. With that being said, Swift did out-target Monangai 8-1 despite running nearly the same number of routes out of the backfield. Neither is giving any reason to have work taken away, and both are performing well when given the opportunity. I would expect the same going forward with Swift being a good fantasy RB2 and Monangai as a matchup-dependent flex play.
2
Targets for Michael Pittman Jr., the lowest of the season with a 7.7% share. All has been right in the world for Pittman with consistent fantasy production and extreme efficiency. Indianapolis has been near perfection on the offensive side of the football, so when facing a Falcons secondary while having a full array of offensive weapons available, Pittman’s spot became much more difficult. Not only did Atlanta enter with the top passing defense, but the base Cover 3 coverage has been Pittman’s weakness this season. His fantasy points per route drops by 57% while Alec Pierce’s jumped by over double.
There are lots of mouths to feed in Indy, and there wasn't much to go around in Week 10 with Jonathan Taylor’s season-high 32 carries. The Colts’ star WR was bound for TD regression as well, with 3.4 TDs over expected entering Week 10. Indianapolis’ red zone pass rate being 29th means Pittman heavily relies on his red zone catch rate being extremely high. All that being said, I don’t think this is a trend going forward, at least not long-term. Pittman’s 10-target games will be back just like Tyler Warren had his on Sunday, but the next three weeks are tougher. The Colts are on bye in Week 11 followed by the Chiefs and Texans, who both rank top-five vs. WRs. Once Pittman gets out on the other side, a good schedule, including two matchups versus Jacksonville, should set him up for a late-season surge.
53.6%
Rachaad White’s percent of Tampa Bay RB touches over the last two games compared to 75.0% in his first three starts. White’s usage that previously propelled him to a top-12 RB has disappeared. Sean Tucker has 21 carries to White’s 23, with fewer targets going to the backfield this season. Tucker also has been the more efficient runner of the two in each game, especially in Week 10, becoming the first RB this season to have over 50 rushing yards versus New England.
The Bucky Irving injury has been anything but straightforward after sitting out once again after the Buccaneers' bye week. However, when Irving does come back healthy, this makes me more confident he’ll return to his elite level RB volume we saw over the first few weeks of 2025. Irving’s efficiency set him apart at the end of his rookie year and should keep him as the clear workhorse when healthy.
8
Targets for Chris Olave in his first game without Rashid Shaheed, a 29.6% share from QB Tyler Shough. This was nearly the exact same as his elite usage with Spencer Rattler to begin the year. After being out-targeted 16-10 by Shaheed in Shough’s first six quarters, Olave’s usage is extra encouraging for his value going forward. I don’t expect Shough to have 282 passing yards and Olave to grab a 60-yard TD every week, but it’s a step in the right direction again.
New Orleans' offense playing at the fastest pace in the NFL, sub-par defense and good play calling help offset some of the quarterback concerns for fantasy reasons. The touchdown upside will certainly be lower, but so far, Shough’s 7.1 yards per attempt could be worse. He sits above plenty of top-level quarterbacks such as Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield and more in the category, proving he can make Olave a volume-centric, high-floor WR once again.
10
The gap in touches between Woody Marks and Nick Chubb, the largest of the season. With 73% of the touches and out-carrying the veteran back 14 to five, Marks looked like the clear RB1 in Houston for the first time this season. Marks took advantage of his 16 touches, posting 15.1 fantasy points versus Jacksonville.
In his four games with 12+ touches this year, Marks is averaging 16.3 half-PPR PPG. The value of the workload he’s getting is key. In Week 10, Marks was on the field for 17 red zone snaps (with Chubb getting zero). He also ran 27 of the 32 Houston RB routes. If Marks can string together RB1 workhorse days, his volume can be enough to offset the Texans' inconsistency going forward.
11-5
Kenneth Walker’s red zone snap advantage over the last two games versus Zach Charbonnet. It hasn’t been great, but it has, surprisingly, been better. Stacking weeks with red zone usage is a great sign going forward, who can pay it off in an offense that’s on fire. Over the last two games, Walker has three of the four goal-line carries and has out-snapped Charbonnet significantly inside the 20 and 10-yard line. Sadly for Walker managers, Charbonnet was still the one who hit pay dirt in Week 10, but it’s a welcome shift in usage. Previously, Charbonnet had nine of the 10 goal-line carries when both players were active, and took a larger majority of the red zone snaps.
Walker has relied on his explosive plays for fantasy production with little to no receiving or red zone usage. If he can carve out one of those, he can become a usable piece as a matchup-dependent starter. Looking ahead, the Seahawks have a tough Rams D in Week 11, but follow it up versus the Titans in Week 12, where Walker can likely be started in most leagues.