NFL QB hot seat: Is Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy back in? Is Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa out? 6 starters are at a crossroads.
Nearly five weeks ago, when J.J. McCarthy had played one good quarter of football and seven horrendous ones, Carson Wentz had a chance.
He has a good arm. He has the size and frame. And in 2023 and 2024, he had two years of quiet backup duty behind the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford and Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes to heal his quarterback image.
Now it was suddenly mid-September and Wentz was being plugged into effectively the same Minnesota Vikings offense that resurrected the career of Sam Darnold one year earlier. So of course, it was hard not to project the possibilities of where it could go. After all …
Wentz did have a short stint in his career with the Philadelphia Eagles where he played at a near-MVP level.
And there have been highly drafted quarterbacks whom we wrote off too early.
Maybe, some thought, Wentz could take McCarthy’s starting job and run with it.
Then Wentz played. And he played like Carson Wentz has most often as a starter — with some very inviting highs, balanced against far too many Mariana Trench lows. Some of them came last weekend against his former Eagles franchise, when Wentz threw a pair of costly interceptions that were very arguably the difference in Minnesota’s 28-22 loss. That has always been the thing with Wentz. He is what he is. You can win some games with him. Your offense can score. But eventually, the odds kick in and he forces the mistakes that have always undercut him and the teams that have trotted him out consistently as a starter.
This is why McCarthy’s job with the Vikings is safe. It’s also why the second-year quarterback is still undeniably on the hot seat. Because now the Vikings have seen what Wentz is. They’ve ridden the roller coaster and know he's not the answer to making the most of this season. And that means there’s only one other avenue to getting this right in 2025.
It’s going to be McCarthy or bust — and all the pressure that comes with it. Of all the quarterbacks in the league on the hot seat, McCarthy might have the hottest. Not because Wentz is a threat to take over this Minnesota franchise down the stretch, but because McCarthy is on a roster built to be in a Super Bowl window right now. He needs to develop fast. Not only that, he doesn’t have the paycheck to force a 2026 commitment from the coaching staff and front office. That means he can get the Anthony Richardson treatment as soon as next season, and find himself fighting for his job with a capable veteran who can turn the key on this offense right now.
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Just like he was as a rookie with Sam Darnold, before suffering a season-ending injury in 2024. The same Darnold who is once again playing his way into an MVP conversation this season with an entirely new cast of players around him with the Seattle Seahawks.
That’s the interesting dynamic about McCarthy. Unlike some other quarterbacks who find themselves on the hot seat, he is neither highly-paid nor sitting in the middle of a total rebuild. Instead, he’s highly drafted and surrounded by a team that is currently one quarterback away — and maybe some offensive line health — from competing for a Super Bowl.
Through eight quarters, the results have not been encouraging. That said, we have some perspective we didn’t a month ago. The Atlanta Falcons' defense that beat the brakes off McCarthy back in September? It turns out the Falcons are far better than we thought at the time, especially the passing defense and the pressure up front. Even the Chicago Bears' defense that made McCarthy look like a mess for three quarters has more to offer than it appeared in September.
What this means for McCarthy remains to be seen. Without a doubt, there’s ample suspicion around the league that the Vikings' coaching staff has strung out his ankle sprain, waiting to see if Wentz reverted to his historically problematic decision-making traits. Now it has happened, and everything about what the Vikings are going to be has shifted back onto McCarthy’s shoulders.
The only difference now: There’s nowhere else to go at quarterback, except where McCarthy takes the Vikings. And with this roster ready to win now, the outcome will likely shape what happens with Minnesota’s QB depth chart in 2026, too.
Here are the other five quarterbacks on the hot seat entering Week 8:
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is keeping Tagovailoa the starter for Week 8, despite benching him in an alarmingly bad loss to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday when the QB threw three interceptions for the second straight game. The one thing Tagovailoa has going for him is that he’s still the best option in a quarterback room that includes seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers and journeyman Zach Wilson. He’s also getting paid handsomely, with the first year of his four-year, $212.4 million extension kicking in this season. That investment, and McDaniel hoping to salvage whatever he can this season to potentially save his job, will keep Tagovailoa on the front burner unless he totally implodes. Even if that doesn’t happen, the downward slope of his decision making and production is going to raise questions about negotiating an exit from Tagovailoa’s deal one season before it’s really viable.
Talking to a league source who used to work for the Dolphins and team owner Stephen Ross, they advanced what they believe is a more likely outcome if Tagovailoa’s play continues to plummet and the Dolphins bottom out with a top five draft pick this year. The source framed it like this: With Ross knowing he’s already on the hook for significant money with Tagovailoa, the likelier scenario to unfold would be something along the lines of how the Denver Broncos handled Russell Wilson after he fell apart in the first year of his extension. They fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett, then went out and got Sean Payton with two paths in mind: Either Payton could get Wilson back on track, or he was going to be allowed to pull the plug in the following offseason and pursue the QB of his choosing.
Payton did exactly that, dumping Wilson after one season and drafting Bo Nix. In that same vein, Miami would fire McDaniel and possibly general manager Chris Grier next offseason, then court a coach/GM tandem that would have be tasked with trying to turn Tagovailoa in the right direction in 2026, but then have the option of cutting ties after 2026 if it isn’t working. And in the meantime, the top-five pick could be used to trade back and accrue more capital for a rebuild with young cheap contracts (helping to shoulder the $34.8 million in dead money from cutting Tagovailoa after the 2026 season), or it could be used to bolster the offensive line in an effort to help Tagovailoa or whoever replaces him.
Justin Fields, New York Jets
With the Jets falling to 0-7 and Fields coming off his worst six quarters of football since arriving in New York, we’ve reached the opaque stage where head coach Aaron Glenn declined to name a starter for this week’s game in Cincinnati. That’s a sizable change from Glenn’s previous posture, which had been to stand firmly behind his 26-year-old quarterback.
The culprit is some of the same problems that have plagued Fields for much of his career, as he’s once again holding the ball too long in the pocket and struggling with the awareness of pressure. The complication for the Jets is that it’s not as if backup Tyrod Taylor fared any better against the Carolina Panthers when he took over at halftime on Sunday, throwing two interceptions and generally looking as bad as Fields.
Regardless of whether Taylor takes over the job, this one is really about the bigger picture. If the Jets land the No. 1 pick in the draft — and if Oregon’s Dante Moore and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza continue their current trajectory — there’s going to be an opportunity to take a quarterback with the first pick. If the results through seven weeks are what Fields represents, he’s not going to be the Jets' starter — or any starter.
What happens with him in the event he’s demoted? With a $23 million cap hit after this season if the Jets cut him, there’s a rationale that he could either be New York’s backup in 2026, or New York could just eat the hit and split the damage over two seasons by designating him as a post-June 1 release. Regardless of how that is handled, it’s clear that Fields is currently playing himself out of his starting job.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals haven’t given any indication they’re going to bench Murray at this stage, but it can’t be overlooked that their offense played functional and competitive football the past two weeks under the stewardship of Jacoby Brissett. That’s still not going to be enough to unseat Murray, who will likely step back into his starting role after Arizona’s Week 8 bye.
When healthy, Murray still has more talent than most quarterbacks in the league. But the scope of his physical limitations have materialized at this point, largely through consistent injuries both big and small. That makes the remainder of this season a referendum of sorts for him. Head coach Jonathan Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort were expecting to take another step in their ground-up culture build this season, with the goal being a playoff bid. Now they sit at 2-5 heading into their bye, knowing the final 10 games are going to be critical to their futures — and the future of Murray.
I spent time with the brain trust in training camp and we talked about Murray. I believe that if he can’t put it together and lead the Cardinals to the playoffs in the final 10 games, all options will be on the table when it comes to the quarterback spot. That includes entertaining a trade of Murray (if a partner can be found) or releasing him as a post-June 1 move and splitting $56.4 million in dead cap. Of course, that would depend on Gannon and Ossenfort still being in place after this season and also having a quarterback plan to replace Murray. If he struggles down the stretch, gets injured again or necessitates a switch to Brissett for any reason, I think it would be more likely that Murray will be gone in the next offseason rather than retained.
Three years of trying to make it work with a quarterback who was inherited is a very honest attempt. It also earns Gannon and Ossenfort the right to try something different in 2026, so long as ownership is still standing behind the pair.
Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders' offense was an abomination in the 31-0 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, with stats that are hard to believe. Las Vegas gained only three first downs to the Chiefs’ 30. In total, the Raiders ran only 30 offensive plays that accounted for 95 yards. Eventually, Smith was replaced by backup Kenny Pickett, and later called the loss a moment of “soul searching.” That seems accurate — but only because the measuring appears to be done.
The Raiders are in a different galaxy when it comes to the best teams in the NFL. The no-show loss to the Chiefs proved that, if the 40-6 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5 already hadn’t. On Sunday, head coach Pete Carroll seemed to point at injuries on offense creating the problems. And in fairness, Las Vegas has been playing without its most dynamic offensive player in tight end Brock Bowers, as well as left tackle Kolton Miller and wideout Jakobi Meyers.
Interestingly, Carroll didn’t really put anything on Smith after the Chiefs loss, conjuring a picture of a team that was just completely overwhelmed, undermanned and incapable of having any chance due to the limited number of snaps on offense. The reality remains that Smith has rarely played great football since the season started. If that’s how the remainder of the season unfolds, it’s going to send Las Vegas back to the drawing board and surely in consideration of adding a player to the quarterback room who can compete for the starting job in 2026. Most likely in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Think of this one along the lines of the New York Giants starting the season with Russell Wilson and Jaxson Dart. The Raiders already owe Smith $26.5 million in guaranteed money next year, so it’s likely he’s going to be on the roster. The question is whether he plays poorly enough in the remainder of the season to push Las Vegas to draft his replacement and then hope the rookie shows enough to take the job in a fashion similar to Dart bumping Wilson out of the starting spot in New York.
Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints
Aside from his four turnovers in Sunday’s loss to the Chicago Bears, Rattler hasn’t been an abject failure as a starter this season. In fact, there’s a strong case he’s shown growth from one season to the next and in some cases, one start to the next. But there is an element of practicality coming into play here. The Saints are 1-6 and have an upcoming schedule (at home vs. the Tampa By Buccaneers and on the road against the Los Angeles Rams and Carolina Panthers) that could sink them to 1-9 by their Week 11 bye.
They also sunk the 40th pick in the draft into rookie QB Tyler Shough. Unless Rattler turns some kind of defining corner quickly, New Orleans is going to need to figure out what it has in the quarterback room between Rattler and Shough. And the only way to do that is by getting Shough some opportunities. It’s as simple as that, especially with the Saints in the running for a top-five draft pick that could be positioned to select a better quarterback than what they already have.