What have we learned from an NFL betting trends perspective? Not a whole lot.
Yes, favorites are dominating on the field, winning 68.1% of the time (92-42-1). However, those favorites are covering the point spread at just 54.1% clip (73-62).
No single team is crushing it at the wagering window, either. Two NFC West squads — the Rams and Seahawks — lead the way at 6-2 ATS (with the Patriots, Colts and Panthers right behind at 6-3 ATS).
Also, aside from New Orleans (2-7 ATS), no team is burying bettors.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that there are no profitable betting angles worth exploring for Week 10 (and beyond). In fact, we’ve done the excavating for you with our latest NFL betting trends report, which highlights all four of this week’s standalone games, as well as the two premier matchups in the early- and late-afternoon Sunday windows.
All listed odds are via BetMGM and subject to change.
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Money line: Raiders +360/Broncos -475
• In the wake of their 18-15 upset of the Texans in Week 9, the Broncos are now on a six-game heater (4-2 ATS).
Not only is Denver tied with New England for the NFL’s longest active winning streak, it’s the franchise’s longest stretch without a defeat since the 2015 Super Bowl squad started out 7-0.
The Broncos have also won nine consecutive home games (7-2 ATS). Seven of the victories were by nine points or more.
• Denver swept the season series from the Raiders in 2024, cruising to wins at home (38-14) and in Las Vegas (29-19).
Prior to last season, the Silver and Black had won eight straight in this rivalry dating to the start of 2020. They also went 12-1 ATS versus Denver from November 2017 through the 2023 season finale.
The last time the Broncos beat the Raiders three straight times? You have to go back to an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) from 2011-2015.
• The Raiders opened the season with a 20-13 upset of the Patriots in New England as a 2.5-point underdog. Since then, they’re 0-3 SU and ATS as a visitor. The three losses at Washington, Indianapolis and Kansas City were by a combined score of 112-30.
Additionally, since visiting Denver in Week 5 of the 2024 season, Las Vegas is 2-9 SU and 4-7 ATS on the road (including seven double-digit defeats).
Another Raiders-related NFL betting trend worth mentioning: The under is 6-1 in their last seven road games.
Kickoff: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Money line: Falcons +225/Colts -275
• The Colts’ four-game winning streak came to a screeching halt with a 27-20 Week 9 loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point road favorite.
It was just the second time all season that Indianapolis failed to score at least 29 points (the other was a Week 4 loss at the Rams by the same 27-20 score).
The Colts remain the NFL’s highest-scoring team at 32.2 points per game. By comparison, the Falcons arrive in Germany ranked 28th in scoring offense at 17.9 PPG.
• Atlanta, which is coming off a 24-23 loss at New England, is mired in a three-game slide (1-2 ATS).
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Since the start of the 2021 season, the Falcons have had just two four-game losing streaks: Weeks 12-16 of 2022 and Weeks 10-14 in 2024 (bye weeks included in both).
One NFL betting trend that supports betting on Atlanta in this one: Since Week 2, underdogs are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in Falcons games.
• Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor had a season-low 45 rushing yards at Pittsburgh. He also failed to score after tallying three touchdowns in three of his previous four games.
Still, Taylor has rushed for at least 94 yards in 10 of his last 14 contests, including eight 100-yard efforts. During this stretch, he has not been held scoreless in consecutive games.
This week, Taylor faces a Falcons defense that ranks 23rd against the run (124.4 yards per game) but has only permitted five rushing TDs.
Taylor’s odds to find the end zone Sunday are astronomical (-300). His rushing yards prop: 96.5 (over -115).
Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m. ET
Money line: Patriots +120/Buccaneers -145
• New England held off the Falcons 24-23 last week for its sixth consecutive victory — the franchise’s longest winning streak since a seven-game romp from Weeks 7-13 of the 2021 season.
The Patriots failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite against Atlanta. Still, they’re 6-3 ATS on the season, including 4-0 SU and ATS away from home.
• Tampa Bay rebounded from a 24-6 Monday Night Football loss at Detroit in Week 7 with a 23-3 rout of the Saints in New Orleans before taking last week off.
The Bucs are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS at home this year (as opposed to 4-1 SU and ATS on the road).
On the positive side of the NFL betting trends spectrum, Tampa is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS as a favorite this year. It also has won and covered six straight regular-season games when laying 4 points or fewer.
• New England quarterback Drake Maye has thrown multiple TD passes in four straight contests and seven of his last eight.
Meanwhile, only three quarterbacks — Jets backup Tyrod Taylor (two), Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts (two) and Seattle’s Sam Darnold (four) — have tossed multiple touchdowns against Tampa Bay.
Maye is a slight underdog (+100) to throw two-plus TDs on Sunday.
• The over is 9-3 in Bucs home games since the 2024 season kicked off, with the last five in a row at Raymond James Stadium – including all three this year – hurdling the total.
Relatedly, New England is on a 14-7 “over” roll, with its last three in a row clearing the total.
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Money line: Rams -190/49ers +155
• San Francisco pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the year in Week 5, when it traveled to Los Angeles with a depleted roster and stunned the Rams 26-23 in overtime as an 8.5-point underdog.
That continued one of the most remarkable head-to-head NFL betting trends: Since 2019, the underdog is 13-1 ATS in this rivalry (2021 NFC Championship Game included).
The ’dog scored an outright upset in 10 of those 14 contests, including the last three in a row.
• The 49ers traveled to New Jersey in Week 9 and throttled the Giants 38-24 as a 2.5-point road favorite.
San Francisco has now alternated SU wins and losses in seven consecutive games.
• Los Angeles has won and covered three in a row since the upset loss to the Niners in Week 5.
Going back to Week 11 of 2023, the Rams are 23-10 SU and 21-12 ATS overall. They’ve also won and covered eight of their last nine away from L.A. (including a 35-7 rout of Jacksonville in London in Week 7).
• Rams QB Matthew Stafford leads the NFL with 21 touchdown passes (three more than the Chargers’ Justin Herbert).
Stafford has nine scoring tosses in his last two games, and has thrown at least three TDs in four of his past five outings.
This week, he faces a Niners defense that has yielded 15 touchdown passes (including three to Stafford a month ago). The 17-year veteran has +150 odds to throw more than two TDs this week.
• Five of the last six Rams-49ers clashes have jumped the total. However, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings at Levi’s Stadium.
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Money line: Steelers +130/Chargers -155
• The Chargers have followed up a 1-3 slump with consecutive victories over the Vikings (37-10) and Titans (27-20).
However, Los Angeles came up short as a 10-point favorite at Tennessee last week, falling to 1-5 ATS in its last six games – all as a favorite – after cashing in each of the first three weeks.
• Pittsburgh is 3-1 SU and ATS away from home this year, including a 24-21 upset of the Vikings as a 2.5-point underdog in Ireland.
In fact, the Steelers are 2-for-2 as an underdog in 2025, the other win coming last week against Indianapolis (27-20 as a 3-point pup).
• Los Angeles has won and covered both of its prime-time games this season, and is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six under the prime-time spotlight.
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Conversely, the Steelers have dropped four straight night games (1-3 ATS) after going 7-1 SU and ATS in the previous eight.
• Chargers QB Justin Herbert, who had an NFL-low three interceptions last year, has been picked off eight times in nine games in 2025.
Herbert has completed at least one pass to the opposing team in six of his last seven contests.
Pittsburgh is tied for sixth in the league with eight interceptions, three of which came off the arm of the Colts’ Daniel Jones last week. That ended a three-game interception drought for the Steelers’ defense.
• The over is 9-2 in the Steelers’ last 11 road/neutral-site games. Meanwhile, the Chargers have followed a 4-0 “under” streak with a 4-0 “over” stretch.
One last totals-related NFL betting trend pertaining to this matchup: The over is 5-1 in both the Steelers and Chargers’ last six prime-time games.
Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Money line: Eagles +118/Packers -140
• Philadelphia entered its Week 9 bye on a high note, as it followed back-to-back upset losses to the Broncos and Giants with consecutive SU and ATS wins over the Vikings (28-22) and Giants (38-20).
The Eagles are 4-0 off their bye since 2021, going 3-1 ATS.
Also, Philadelphia — which was favored in its first eight games — has posted four straight outright upsets as an underdog (including a blowout of the Chiefs in Super Bowl 59).
• Green Bay’s three-game winning streak was abruptly snapped with last week’s stunning 16-13 home loss to the Panthers. The Packers closed as high as a 13.5-point favorite, becoming the biggest chalk of the season to lose outright.
With the upset, Green Bay – which is the only team that has been favored in every game this year – is in a 1-5 ATS funk.
Two NFL betting trends that do favor the Packers: They’re 6-0-1 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven prime-time games, and 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four prime-time contests at home.
• The Eagles took down the Packers twice in 2024, scoring a 34-29 win in the season opener in Sao Paulo, Brazil, then ending Green Bay’s season with a 22-10 home playoff victory.
Philadelphia covered the point spread in both contests, continuing this mini NFL betting trend: In four head-to-head meetings this decade, the favorite is 4-0 SU and ATS.
• The over has cashed in five of Philadelphia’s last six games, including the last three in a row.
Conversely, the under is 3-0-1 in games played at Lambeau Field this year.
Lastly, since the 2024 campaign kicked off, the under is 4-1 when the Eagles play on Monday Night Football.