Sports

I mentioned last week that we didn't want to overreact to one game of data because it was a small sample size and plenty of weirdness could occur in the upcoming weeks, and boy, did it ever. A Bills defense that looked atrocious against the Ravens absolutely dominated a Jets offense that had previously dominated the Steelers defense. The 49ers' defense fell flat against Spencer Rattler and the Saints. The Cowboys went from playing the Eagles tough to being absolutely lit up by Russell Wilson and the Giants. The Broncos defense couldn't force a single punt or turnover from Daniel Jones and the Colts, and a Falcons defense that produced one fantasy point against the Bucs came back and put up 20 points against the Vikings.

This is all to say that we will do our best to identify the optimal plays each week, but we are still learning a great deal about the true talent of these teams. Don't be afraid to adjust your expectations if you see something clear and actionable take place on the field, but also don't let one or two games push aside weeks of offseason preparation if there isn't a clear new reason for why the team in question is performing as they have been early in the season. We'll try and sort through all of those answers together here each week.

As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.

2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 2: 5-5

SEASON-LONG: 10-10

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.

To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):

((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTIVITY RATE x 2) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))

MINUS

(EXPECTED POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY x 10) + MISSED TACKLE RATE + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE x 2))

I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to factor in things like injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much based on "gut feel" or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

My BOD rankings system is currently telling me that the Seahawks are a tier two defense because the Saints rank just 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses so far. I know we also heavily targeted the 49ers against the Saints last week, and it didn't quite work, but I just think this week will be different. For starters, I think the Seahawks will be more potent on offense than a banged-up 49ers team, and I also think this Seahawks defense may be better than the 49ers' unit. Through two games, the Seahawks are 4th in turnover rate and 6th in opponents’ scoring rate. They've given up some big plays, but they played a (healthier) 49ers offense and a Steelers offense that are both better than this Saints offense. I trust the Seahawks this week.

The Packers may be one of the best defenses in football, and now they take on a Browns team that gives up the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses so far. Baltimore was able to finish as a top-five defense this past week after being lit up by the Bills in Week 1, and I think the Packers' defense is better than the Ravens' defense. The Packers are 1st in EPA allowed per play, 5th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 7th in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate, so they're one of the best defenses going up against an offense with few playmakers and an immobile quarterback. I like that for this week.

Yes, I'm surprised I have the Falcons this high, but, through two games against the Bucs and Vikings, they rank 3rd in EPA allowed per play, 3rd in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate, 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, and 6th in turnover rate. They are also going up against a Panthers offense that has no reliable pass-catchers other than Tetairoa McMillan, and they also lost two starting linemen last week, with starting guard Robert Hunt and starting center Austin Corbett both going on IR. Given those injuries and the mediocre performance of Bryce Young, I'm OK using the Falcons this week.

I also can't believe we have the Jaguars this high, but the Texans' offense looked awful on Monday night against a fairly average Bucs defense. This Jaguars defense has also been playing fairly well, and that was even before Joe Burrow got hurt on Sunday. So far, the Jaguars are 1st in turnover rate, 5th in EPA allowed per play, and 8th in opponents’ scoring rate. The Texans give up the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and have one of the worst offensive lines in football. That could make the Jaguars a sneaky play this week.

I assume others will have the Bills ranked higher after dominating the Jets, and perhaps I'm being a cynical Bills fan, but I have some concerns this week. The Bills are 1st in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate after two weeks, but 18th in EPA allowed per play and 20th in opponents’ scoring rate. They will likely be without both Ed Oliver and Matt Milano in this game, and this game is essentially a must-win for the Dolphins with everybody in the hot seat.

The Colts' defense has been solid so far this season and is 2nd in turnover rate, 7th in opponents’ scoring rate. However, their first game was against a broken Dolphins team, and they also faced a Denver offense that isn't overly exciting either. That being said, this Titans offense is giving up the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and Cam Ward is taking plenty of sacks. The Colts were without two of their top three cornerbacks this past Sunday, so I'd like to see an updated injury report to determine if those players are available. If they are, this feels like a solid spot.

The Chiefs shouldn't be here based on their defensive performance so far and the way the Giants played on Sunday. However, the Chiefs were my stash pick of the week, and the logic behind that play still exists. The Chiefs defense is a solid unit. They've played the Chargers and Eagles so far, and that's a pretty tough road. This Giants offensive line is still bad, and I think we maybe just didn't realize how poor this Cowboys' secondary was. I'm not expecting another elite Russell Wilson performance, so I'm happy to use the Chiefs here.

The 49ers' defense let us down a bit last week in a smash spot against the Saints, but we shouldn't give up on them too much in another solid spot against the Cardinals. So far this season, the 49ers are 2nd in opponents’ scoring rate, 6th in EPA allowed per play, and 8th in turnover rate. The offense, led by Mac Jones, could put them in some bad spots on Sunday, but I still think this defense is solid enough to be a safe floor play against the Cardinals.

The Texans' defense has been good through two weeks, ranking 1st in opponents' scoring rate and 5th in Pass Rush Productivity Rate. They were in Baker Mayfield's face all night on Monday and even blocked a punt on special teams. The problem is their offense doesn't help them out at all. Still, I think the Texans are a unit that we can trust against a Jaguars offense that has yet to really click under Liam Coen.

This Vikings and Bengals game will now be a battle of backup quarterbacks, Carson Wentz for the Vikings versus Jake Browning of the Bengals. Normally, we'd love to target backup quarterbacks, and that is why both of these defenses are in fringe top-ten territory, but Wentz and Browning are also solid backups. I think the Minnesota defense is much better than the Cincinnati defense. The Vikings are 4th in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate so far, and I think Brian Flores could have Browning in fits with his defensive schemes, but we also know that Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are talented playmakers, so I can't raise Minnesota too high. The Bengals also need to be considered this high as a defense because the Vikings will also be without Aaron Jones in this game, and they lost two starting offensive linemen on Sunday night. I like Jordan Mason, and Wentz may be as good at this exact moment as J.J. McCarthy, but Wentz with two backup linemen trying to block for him has me a bit more interested in the Bengals, so keep an eye on that Minnesota practice report.

A lot of matchups in here where both teams could be playable.

Let's start with the Steelers and Patriots. I also have no idea what to make of the Steelers' defense. It's usually so rock solid, but they looked awful against the Jets in Week 1, and then the Jets' offense was abysmal against the Bills in Week 2. The Steelers defense also gave up 24 points to the Seahawks (not including the special teams touchdown), so I'm just not sure where to rank them against this Patriots offense. Drake Maye will take some sacks and make some poor reads, but he can also make big plays. Rhamondre Stevenson looked feisty on Sunday, and I think the Patriots have enough viable pass-catchers, so I'm not as into the Steelers here as I thought I'd be, but I still think they're a fringe top-ten unit this week.

Similarly, the Steelers' offense took a big step back on Sunday. Now, the Seahawks defense is a good one, but Aaron Rodgers can't move in the pocket, and they really don't have any viable receiving weapons outside of DK Metcalf. I think Jaylen Warren is pretty solid, but do we really trust an offense giving Kenneth Gainwell so many touches? This Patriots defense isn't great, but they rank 11th in Pass Rush Productivity Rate and 13th in turnover rate, so maybe they'll make enough plays to put up a usable fantasy score for deeper formats.

The Commanders are 6th in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate, 8th in opponents' scoring rate, and 12th in EPA allowed per play, so they have been solid enough to start the season. They also get a Raiders offense that can't seem to block for Ashont Jeanty, and then also decides to use Dylan Laube in the two-minute drill over Jeanty. It's unclear if Brock Bowers is playing at 100%, but this Raiders offense looked awful on Monday, so I'm OK with using the Commanders against them, but I also think the Raiders could be in play since Jayden Daniels has a knee injury and may miss this game. With Austin Ekeler out for the season, if we also get Marcus Mariota playing quarterback for the Commanders, I could see moving the Raiders up even higher.

I really do like the Broncos' defense, but I can't ignore that they looked pretty average against the Colts on Sunday. Yes, the Broncos are 2nd in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate and 1st in EPA allowed per play, but they're 21st in opponents' scoring rate and 17th in missed tackle rate. It's early, and I think the Broncos will still settle in as an elite unit, but this matchup against the Chargers isn't an easy one.

This really isn't the smash spot for the Bucs defense that people think. Tyrod Taylor is not really a downgrade from Justin Fields, and he also takes fewer risks and is likely to make fewer mistakes. The Jets' offensive line looked good against the Steelers, so the Bills' pass rush may just be really good, which it should be, given how many resources they've put into it. I think the Bucs can be a safe floor play here, but I don't see a super high ceiling.

The Cardinals are 10th in opponents’ scoring rate so far this season, but they've had a really easy schedule. However, I'm not sure that gets harder in Week 3 against a 49ers offense that will be without George Kittle and Brock Purdy. I don't love this play, but I could see it being a safe floor option.

There are a few defenses I like in here, but I just can't get excited about playing them in their matchups.

I can see using all of the Eagles, Rams, Ravens, Lions, and Browns at various points in the season. And, if you are okay getting just 4-5 fantasy points this week, then maybe you can roll the dice on one of them this week. However, I just think the ceilings are so low in their respective matchups that I'd rather not have to play them. I understand that you may not want to cut them and certainly don't want to roster two defenses in normal leagues this early in the season, so if you have to slot them into your lineup and cross your fingers, I get it.

Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.

The Cowboys played well enough against the Eagles that I talked myself out of my preseason belief that they would be a bad defense without Micah Parsons. Then they went out and just got obliterated by Russell Wilson and the Giants. I'm not back to being fully out on them for fantasy, which means they'll have a great game against Caleb Williams and the Bears, but I just can't do it.