Jets see potential in AD Mitchell despite quiet debut: 'He’s going to be a good player for us'
AD Mitchell made his Jets debut Thursday night against the Patriots, but he didn't have the performance either he or the team was hoping for.
The former second-round pick caught just one pass for 10 yards in the Jets' 27-14 loss to New England. Mitchell was targeted six times by Justin Fields, and dropped three of those passes.
A Fields pass deep downfield in the closing minutes of the first half was not corralled by Mitchell, which could have set up points before halftime. The wideout said he wished he could have attacked the ball more instead of letting it come down to him.
"Misjudged the ball and at the end of the day, I have to be better than that," he said. "It was a great pass, should have been an explosive for the Jets."
Perhaps it's the lack of reps between Mitchell and Fields. The Jets added Mitchell in that blockbuster deal that sent Sauce Gardner to the Colts and John Metchie III -- in a trade with the Eagles -- to bolster their wide receiver room before the deadline, so there are a few new pieces to the offense. But Fields doesn't want to use that as an excuse for his performance.
"You kind of have just have to roll with it and deal with it," Fields said of having two new wide receivers. "You can't look at your circumstances; you've just got to go out there and play. I thought those guys did a good job, overall. A lot of plays we want back as an offense. We just got to keep working and keep going. It’s tough, but at the end of the day, you can’t complain about it."
Metchie caught three passes for 45 yards and a touchdown, his first as a Jet, on Thursday night, but New York sees potential in Mitchell, despite the drops, or else they wouldn't have wanted him in the Gardner trade. Head coach Aaron Glenn pointed out that Mitchell hasn't had many reps with the Jets offense -- a reason he was a DNP last week against the Browns -- but also put the onus on the coaches to get him more involved.
"He’s a big, fast…he’s going to be a good player for us," Glenn said of Mitchell's debut. "He missed some balls today; I think we all saw that. Him being here for two weeks and truly only a week of going out there and practicing. We got to get him back out there and do more. He would tell you himself that he’s got to make some of those plays thrown to him. We have to do a better job of getting him open, also."
In the Gardner trade, the two first-round picks going to the Jets were the highlights of the deal, but Mitchell's inclusion was notable. The Texas product caught 55 passes for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns in 14 games back in 2023, but those numbers haven't necessarily translated to the pros.
In his rookie season, he caught just 23 passes (on 55 targets) for 312 yards and no touchdowns with the Colts. Before being traded to the Jets, he caught only nine passes for 152 yards in the first eight games for Indianapolis.
Still, the Jets see the potential and will continue to work with Mitchell, who still has two more years left on his rookie deal. To his credit, the 23-year-old recognizes he needs to be better.
"If I could really pinpoint anything, I would point the finger at myself and say I need to perform better," he said. "I just need to do better."
Mitchell will get a few extra days to try and get more adjusted to the Jets' offense, as New York heads to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in Week 11.
Seahawks vs. Rams: What wrinkles could decide this clash of NFL juggernauts?
The NFL rolls into the back half of the 2025 season, and the true quality of teams is starting to crystalize a little bit. Every week in the NFL is entertaining, even if the schedule at first doesn’t appear that way. Games with big spreads or between two afterthoughts become national collective viewing experiences as the witching hour strikes Sunday.
Week 11 has several interesting games on the slate, but there is one particular matchup between two juggernauts out West that has all the ingredients to be the game of the year.
The Seahawks and Rams are jockeying in their division and conference in a wide open year in the NFL. Both enter their clash Sunday with matching 7-2 records. The Seahawks rank first in FTN’s DVOA statistic, while the Rams rank second. The Seahawks rank second in point differential (+103), the Rams rank third (+98). Both teams feature top offenses (Seahawks rank fourth in DVOA, Rams second) with explosive passing games and quarterbacks playing the best ball of their careers. And both teams feature top-end defenses with ferocious pass rushes (Seahawks rank third, Rams sixth) Although the Seahawks hold an edge in special teams, ranking second in DVOA to the Rams 23rd, with the Rams swapping out kickers and opting for Harrison “The Thiccer Kicker” Mevis last week.
This matchup between two of the best teams in the NFL that features top-end units with stars littered throughout has me giddy. For this week’s Playbook, I wanted to preview this battle when both teams have the ball, and what exactly both teams can pick at while facing off a fellow elite opponent.
When the Seahawks have the ball
We’ll start when the road team has the ball here. The Seahawks and quarterback Sam Darnold have been shredding defenses through the air this season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the Offensive Player of the Year favorite after putting up a historic first half of the season.
This Seahawks’ offense leads the NFL in explosive pass rate (gains of 16 or more yards), with their 21.1% explosive pass rate standing as the highest full-season mark by any NFL offense since at least 2002. Only two other offenses (2009 Chargers and 2023 49ers) have even eclipsed 20%.
Darnold’s 9.9 yards per attempt would also be the highest mark reached by an NFL QB since at least 2002. Darnold isn’t just aimlessly chucking passes, either. He also leads all QBs in dropback success rate this year and has constantly been making correct decisions in this offense. His cleaner decision-making shows up in other metrics as well; Darnold has been taking sacks at the lowest rate of his career and has been scrambling less than ever. Simply put: he’s confident in what he’s seeing, making correct decisions, and constantly throwing the ball where it needs to go.
Smith-Njigba has been a big part of this (his 11.2% explosive receptions per route this season is easily the highest among NFL players since at least 2013) and he’s received one of the highest target shares on record. But other auxiliary pass-catchers have had their moments in Klint Kubiak’s offense.
Cooper Kupp has found a niche as a blocker and efficient underneath option, essentially playing like a receiving tight end at this point in his career. A.J. Barner is a true two-way tight end who can block and is a valid receiving threat. Rookie Tory Horton, when healthy, has added an explosive play element as well. And the Seahawks have even added Rashid Shaheed from the Saints. Shaheed has experience playing in Kubiak’s offense from last season, and while he came into the league as a burner and returner, he has added several layers to his game and is a perfect explosive secondary option in this offense who can create more space for Smith-Njigba to attack.
The Seahawks’ run game, the usual driver of success in a Shanahan-Kubiak offense, has been underwhelming this season. Whether it’s Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet getting the carries, neither has had real consistent success running behind the Seahawks’ offensive line (the line has improved! But it’s still helped out a ton in this offensive system). All stats point to a bottom-half run unit that isn’t awful, but isn’t a real calling card for the team this year.
The Seahawks are also now playing Olu Oluwatimi at center after an injury to starter Jalen Sundell. While Oluwatimi is the backup, he did start in the second half of the 2024 season, and I actually thought he played like a solid starter over that stretch, even when the rest of the offensive line was getting battered every week.
The classic way to create an advantage against a Shanahan-Kubiak offense is to earn a favorable game script and make the offense drop back and throw. That’s still true. The Seahawks have the most explosive passing game on record, but their OL, while improved, isn’t particularly equipped to handle protecting in that way over and over.
Why I bring up the offensive line for the Seahawks is because of the strength of the Rams defense: their defensive line and pass rush. The Rams rank 12th in pressure rate this season, but they’re still a huge threat to any offense that doesn’t have a sound protection plan or has a glaring weakness along their line (like the Seahawks have at right guard). Jared Verse is the headliner of this front, but Byron Young has had a tremendous season to start the year against the run and pass (nine sacks). Kobie Turner is a dynamic interior defender and Braden Fiske constantly creates edginess with his quickness and explosiveness. Poona Ford has been a great addition to this defense, too, adding more stoutness to a defense that could at times be overwhelmed by size in the run game last year.
Creating pressure on Darnold is paramount for the Rams, which is easier said than done because of how much the Seahawks move the pocket and how quickly he’s been operating this year. The Rams’ run defense has also been much improved this year and actually has the advantage against this Seahawks run game.
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold (14) and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) have formed one of the most explosive connections in the NFL this season.
Logan Bowles via Getty Images
On the backend, the Rams play more dime (six DBs) personnel than anybody, which allows them to make quarterbacks (and pass protectors) hesitate just a bit as they sort out exactly who is who for the Rams. The intelligence the Rams’ defensive backs play with is palpable when you watch them. That awareness is exemplified by their safeties (Kam Curl and Kamren Kinchens) and primary slot defender (Quentin Lake), who seem to break on routes well before the receivers do. Defensive coordinator Chris Shula was my assistant coach of the year selection for my midseason awards (with Klint Kubiak the runner-up), and how the Rams’ defensive backs play is a big reason why. They’re so well scouted to opponent tendencies that even players like cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr., a retread the Rams picked off the scrapheap, is making plays every week on the football because he’s so well-versed on what offenses are trying to do.
The Rams rank sixth in explosive passes allowed, and that’s even with their safeties playing so aggressively downhill to make plays on the football. Even one weakness this Rams team had last year, which was extended dropbacks when the opposition protected well and the Rams’ tight coverage unraveled as the play went along, has become a strength as the Rams swarm.
Neither side is perfect, but they’re both damn good. And they’ve both made the absolute most out of what they have.
Kubiak will also have recent film to pull from, since the Rams played the Kyle Shanahan-coached 49ers in Week 10. And there were a few things I noticed that the 49ers really tried to pick at against this Rams defense. One was in-breaking routes, namely in-breaking routes with switch releases that came from condensed formations. That sounds niche, but it’s not. Shanahan-Kubiak offenses love using condensed formations to get more bodies involved with the run game and to invert route assignments on passing plays. It can add that little bit of window dressing on core concepts that the defense has to communicate against. Going against a defense like the Rams that like to play with a quarters shell and then rotate based on what the offense presents, it can leave them vulnerable to teams that know how to attack leverage as they sort out their coverage assignments. It was something the 49ers got to several times before the game got out of hand. Like this concept to George Kittle:
This isn’t anything different than what the Seahawks do each week; Darnold leads all QBs in success rate on in-breaking routes (67.4%!) and is also first in yards per attempt (11.4 yards!). Darnold also has more passing yards than any other QB out of condensed formations this year, with 1,180 yards. He also ranks first in yards per attempt (11.1) and explosive pass rate (26.1%), third in EPA/dropback (.32), and third in success rate (58.3%) from those types of formations.
The Rams’ defense, on the other hand, has allowed the third-highest success rate against condensed formations this year (57%), the fifth-most EPA, and the sixth-most yards per attempt. It’s a well coached defense that’s playing great this year, but these tight formations with switch releases on routes is definitely something the Seahawks can pick at.
When the Rams have the ball
These are two of the best units in the NFL. Full stop. No caveats. No disclaimers.
The Rams’ offense has been a juggernaut this season, and so has the Seahawks’ defense. The Rams and QB Matthew Stafford can throw the ball with efficiency or for explosives. They can do it from under center or from the shotgun. With play action or without it. On early downs or late downs. Against man coverage or against zone.
The Seahawks’ defense can generate pressure (third in pressure rate this year), even without blitzing. They’re also devastating when head coach Mike Macdonald chooses to heat up the quarterback (a scorching 55% pressure rate when the Seahawks bring five or more pass rushers this season, easily the highest mark for any defense this year.) Macdonald’s kaleidoscopic scheme changes its focus weekly based on the opponent and sometimes even midgame. The Seahawks can pressure the quarterback, stop the run, and their defense is incredibly well-coached and scouted against passing games as well. Turns out when you pair one of the best defensive coaches with a talented unit, a top three defense sprouts out of it!
While the Seahawks’ run game has been a bit lackluster this year, the Rams’ run game sure hasn't been. The Rams are third in rushing success rate this season, despite Stafford being a non-factor in the run game. They can run both zone and duo run concepts with efficiency (and are particularly explosive on their outside zone runs) and can get to them in a variety of ways. The Seahawks’ defense, of course, is also good against the run, ranking first in EPA per run, sixth in rushing success rate (allowing a 35.4% success rate) and third in yards per rush allowed (3.7). Again, the units facing off on this side of the ball are a true strength-on-strength matchup throughout.
When it looks like it’s a true even matchup, it’s fun to look at possible threads that coaches can pull at to gain an advantage. Macdonald is one of the best play-callers in the NFL at adjusting his preferred game plan on a given week and throughout a game. When these two teams faced off in Week 9 last year (their Week 18 matchup featured Jimmy Garoppolo playing quarterback for the Rams), the Seahawks used man coverage on 20 dropbacks. Stafford finished 8-for-20 for 93 yards against man coverage and 6-for-15 for 53 yards against just Cover 1 (true man coverage with a safety playing over the top). The 2024 Rams struggled overall against man coverage, with Stafford ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of success rate and EPA, which was a big reason why they added Davante Adams this offseason. And Adams’ presence, as well as new wrinkles in this offense, has helped Stafford be one of the better quarterbacks against man coverage this year (eighth in success rate and ninth in EPA per dropback against Cover 1, per NextGenStats). Does Macdonald again dare to play man coverage or try to blitz again? Stafford has shredded blitzes this year and essentially every year he’s been the Rams quarterback, and he went 8-13 passing for 129 yards and 2 TDs against Seahawks blitzes last season. It’ll be interesting to see how Macdonald attempts to solve this conundrum.
In Stafford’s first year in Los Angeles, the Rams heavily leaned into empty formations with no running backs in the backfield. And while head coach Sean McVay has veered his offense in other ways since then, empty formations are still another tool that this Rams offense can use when needed. On 32 dropbacks this year out of empty, Stafford is averaging 9 yards an attempt, has yet to be sacked, is second in success rate, and is first in explosive pass rate (8 of 32 dropbacks have led to an explosive for the Rams). And while the Seahawks are good-to-elite in just about every category you look at, empty formations is one way to make Macdonald’s defense a bit more predictable and (relatively) simplistic. On 37 empty dropbacks that the Seahawks have faced this year, they run Cover 3 or Cover 4 about 70% of the time. It’s not every single time, but a quarterback knowing what coverage he’s about to get three-quarters of the time is a nice advantage. Especially for a quarterback with as much experience as Stafford. The Seahawks have been more above-average to average against empty looks this year, rather than bashing offenses heads in like they do in every other situation; the Seahawks rank 11th in dropback success rate and 14th in explosive pass rate against empty formations. Again, still above-average in both categories, but not on the podium like they are in every other category. And it’s a true strength for the Rams and Stafford to attack with.
The Rams have also been using 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR) more frequently this year, including on about half of their snaps last week against the 49ers. And they are equally effective no matter how many tight ends or wide receivers they have on the field, but their ability to pivot between personnel groupings has become a true weapon in dictating game flow and should really benefit them come playoff time. How the Seahawks play against the Rams’ multi-tight end looks is a fascinating chess match in this game. So far this year, they have primarily used nickel (five defensive backs) personnel no matter what the offense is in on early downs, with some upticks in base (four defensive backs) based on the team they’re playing.
Rams 13 personnel in 3 play sequence.
PA wheel route to Ferguson w/ great protection (including a double team by the TEs).
A true naked w/ motion at the snap and routes working back (look at the 49ers LBs).
In 2024, the Seahawks used base and nickel at about an equal amount when facing multi-tight end personnel groups. Interestingly, the Rams, after scoring only 3 points in the first half in their Week 9 game against the Seahawks, adjusted in the second half to use more tight ends. And just like it has been this year, it was very effective for them. After using only 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) on three snaps in the first half, the Rams used it on 16 snaps in the second half and overtime, with a 50% success rate on those plays. The Seahawks originally matched the Rams’ personnel with nickel, but then switched to using their base personnel grouping as the second half went along, and the Rams kept peppering toss zone runs to wing tight end formations.
Look for more wing tight end looks from the Rams on Sunday. (Fox Sports screen grab)
You still can sprinkle some efficient gains against this Seahawks’ defense when you get into multi-tight end looks. Seattle ranks 18th in success rate allowed, but are fourth in EPA per play and have allowed only two (yes, two) explosive runs to these personnel groupings this entire year. To top it off, they’re also first in knockdown rate (QB hits and sacks) against these looks. So, while offenses can stay in front of the sticks when trotting out tight ends, the Seahawks are still making big plays, not allowing many, and still affecting the quarterback when teams do try to attack them that way. It should also be noted that linebacker Ernest Jones IV, who is a very important cog in making this Seahawks machine go, is battling an injury right now, but he has indicated he can go. If he can’t, then I could see the Rams using those tight ends to try and control the game and the Seahawks leaning even more into nickel personnel groupings, with rookie being an important chess piece against the Rams’ bevy of tight ends. Do we even see some dime from the Seahawks now that Devon Witherspoon is healthy and Josh Jobe potentially playing as well?
I’m beyond excited to see how these two excellent coaches and coaching staffs game plan for each other. Especially since it’s their first showdown of the season. The Seahawks’ defensive front is going to have their moments, and I’m sure Stafford and the Rams’ run game will have theirs as well. How they think is the best way to attack each other is going to be captivating to watch (and rewatch the next day).
Prediction
These are two true contenders facing off in a midseason battle and I want to emphasize (even for my own sake) to not overreact to whichever team loses this game. Because these are four excellent units (five including the Seahawks special teams) going head-to-head while firing on all cylinders and all relatively healthy, as well.
The Seahawks’ run game worries me just a little bit, while I do think they’ll be able to have stretches to pop any funkiness from the Rams, like wadding up their post-snap movement with zone runs, I’m still curious to see how Darnold and the Seahawks’ offensive line hold up if they have to face consistent third-and-longs. Maybe the run game starts finding its footing (it’s close to being about league average) and the Seahawks are able to take advantage of the Rams’ aggressiveness up front. Their explosive passing game might be enough to overcome it either way, but does that lead to more drives that end in field goals? We’ll see what Shula throws at Kubiak and Darnold to try and slow down the most explosive passing offense we’ve seen this millennium. So far, no one has had much luck!
This game is nearly impossible to predict, but the Rams' completeness of running the ball, stopping the run, and having an explosive passing game with two top-end wide receivers and a multitude of different tight end looks is why I’m giving them an edge in this game. Either way, I think it’ll be a barnburner and I’m already salivating at the rematch (and hopefully a third battle come playoff time).
Jets' winning streak comes to an end after 27-14 loss to Patriots
The Jets had their best start of the season on Thursday night, but their two-game winning streak came to an end as the New England Patriots took control to win their eighth game in a row.
Both teams possessed the ball just once in the first quarter, as the Jets ate up over eight minutes on their first drive, which ended with a Justin Fields option keeper. New England’s first possession used up the rest of the period and they tied the score on rookie TreVeyon Henderson’s seven-yard run early in the second quarter.
The game settled into a more familiar pattern from then onwards, as the Jets went three-and-out on their next three possessions while the Patriots marched downfield on their second possession to take a 14-7 lead on another seven-yard Henderson run.
Henderson scored again in the third quarter, this time on a pass from Drake Maye to make it 21-7, but the Jets responded on a 22-yard touchdown pass from Fields to John Metchie III.
New England pushed the lead to 13 on a pair of field goals by Andy Borregales and then the Jets turned the ball over on downs in the red zone with two minutes remaining to end their comeback bid.
Here are some takeaways...
-The Jets threw the ball on their first offensive snap as Fields completed a short pass to Mason Taylor, but the next nine plays were all runs, albeit that a few of those saw Fields scrambling, having initially dropped back to pass. The next pass was an incompletion by wide receiver Isaiah Williams on a gadget play but Fields did complete one more pass on the drive, as he connected with a debuting Adonai Mitchell on a third-down conversion. It was clear they intended to lean on the running game and Fields’ running abilities and this worked initially but was less successful as the game went on.
-Overall, it wasn’t the worst offensive performance in recent memory from New York, which had 245 yards. Fields was held to 116 passing yards but rushed for 67. However, the Patriots’ top-ranked run defense kept Breece Hall in check, holding him to 64 yards from scrimmage.-Coming off his big four-sack game, Will McDonald IV was not in the starting line-up, although he did rotate in off the bench. He was limited by a quad injury in practice during the week, so presumably this was a factor in that. While he had a disruptive game, McDonald was held without a sack.-Quincy Williams was back in a starting role and was tied for the team lead with six tackles. He also had a sack negated by a penalty. His benching seems to have lasted just a week.The other line-up change for the Jets was that Qwan’tez Stiggers started on the outside at cornerback with Azareye’h Thomas out with a concussion. This was a departure from what they did to replace the injured Thomas on Sunday, where they instead moved slot cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr. to the outside.-Brownlee’s physical play has given the Jets’ defense a boost since they added him in September, but the downside of that is starting to rear its head. For the second game in a row, Brownlee had multiple penalties, including an unnecessary roughness call that gifted the Patriots 15 yards on their first drive. He now has 11 in eight games this season, including six in the past two.-Maye got off to a hot start as he completed his first 11 passes before finally throwing an incompletion on third down with 3:31 remaining in the first half. He was impressive all day, showing good poise when pressured. If he can maintain this level of play, New England is a legitimate contender in a wide-open AFC. Maye could even be an MVP candidate.-The Jets gave Mitchell some opportunities to make plays in his Jets debut, but he didn’t quite seem to be on the same page with Fields on five incompletions. Three of these were dropped. The book on Mitchell has been that he’s talented but lacks consistency and he lived up to that reputation in this game.-Low snaps were an issue all day for center Josh Myers, and this cost the Jets in the fourth quarter as Fields was unable to scoop one off the turf and New England recovered to set up a field goal. Once again, the Jets were unable to force a turnover of their own.
Game MVP: TreVeyon Henderson
The Jets held the in-form rookie Henderson to 62 yards on 19 carries but couldn’t keep him out of the end zone as his three touchdowns proved decisive. He ended up with 93 yards from scrimmage.XX
Highlights
Justin Fields gets the Jets on the board first with his legs 💨