Four Verts: Caleb Williams was not the problem in Bears' blowout, while familiar crack in Chargers' armor is showing
In this week's edition of the Four Verts column, we dive into some of the buzziest offenses in the NFL, what's going right or wrong with them, and how that will impact the rest of their seasons, which are now two games old.
Caleb Williams should not be the scapegoat of THAT game
Chargers' win over Raiders showed a familiar crack in the armor
Colts have a juggernaut offense through 2 weeks?
Ravens' offense is scoring in bunches and has room to improve
Caleb Williams should not be the talking point of THAT game
The Chicago Bears got embarrassed. Again.
This time at the hands of their in-division foe Detroit Lions, losing 52-21 in a game that really got out of hand in the second half. The Lions did whatever they wanted to the Bears, and Ben Johnson was handed a brutal L by his former team in his first matchup against them. Anytime a team loses by this many points, it’s legitimately impossible to point the finger at one person, but that sure is still happening. Despite not even being close to the reason that the Bears lost, second-year quarterback Caleb Williams has still been criticized by people who are expecting more from him — and it has truly been baffling.
In truth, his game was the kind of rebound performance that Williams needed after playing a season opener littered with inaccuracies against the Minnesota Vikings. Williams did a much better job of hitting his throws and ran the offense with more precision in this game. In the first half, before the Lions’ offense decided to turn the difficulty down to rookie, the Bears averaged 0.28 expected points per dropback and 6.3 yards per play according to TruMedia.
Both of those marks are excellent, and they were able to move the ball without consistent help from their rushing attack. Being a skeptic of Williams is fine, but using this specific performance to reinforce extreme doubt in his future doesn’t make much sense. The interception he threw has been plastered all over social media, but it was his only turnover of the game and it happened on second-and-32. That drive was already over! He needs to be more careful with the football in that instance for sure, but that play was not the reason they lost. He produced a fine day and the film has some really encouraging moments on it.
The reason we should be laughing at the Bears is because THEIR DEFENSE GAVE UP 52 POINTS IN AN NFL GAME! There are only a handful of games where an offense scores 50 points each season (although funnily enough, the Lions have the last three), so it’s a fairly rare result that doesn’t happen much in a salary-capped sport. The Bears' defensive incompetence was really breathtaking to see as the points from the Lions just continued to pile up.
They. Got. Shredded. The first half was embarrassing enough, with the Lions' offense posting a success rate of 61.1%, averaging four points per drive and 7.8 yards per play. That’s a brutal performance for a defense that had high hopes coming into the season … and then the third quarter happened. Oh, man. Ohhhh, man.
This is where the game broke open. The Bears’ offense sputtered to a halt and the defense ceased to exist in entirety. Seriously, how else can anyone explain giving up 14.8 YARDS PER PLAY IN A QUARTER. The Lions averaged 30.8 yards per passing attempt in the third quarter. That is not a typo. 30.8 yards. Jared Goff went 4 of 4 for 123 yards and a touchdown. Thanks to the Bears defense, um, locking down in the fourth quarter, the Lions were only able to average 10.3 yards per play across the second half and 8.8 over the course of the game.
In case you’re new to football or need a refresher, a first down is only 10 yards. This is incredibly poor play, and the main reason the Bears lost rather than anything Williams did. There’s a fervor around young quarterbacks that will always be natural, but it does feel like some of the criticism around Williams’ play has been extreme so far. Of course, he will have games this year where he is the reason why they lose, but that’s really fine. He’s a young quarterback and that’s what young quarterbacks do.
Don’t lose sight of what’s happening on the field. There are explanations for everything. Like giving up a first down a play on defense.
Chargers' win over Raiders showed a familiar crack in the armor
Los Angeles is in a good spot with Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert teaming up for another season after the Chargers went from top-five pick to a wild-card berth last season. This is a pairing that’s going to be around for a long time, and they’re off to a strong start this season with both of their wins coming against divisional opponents. Considering Harbaugh’s track record and Herbert’s skill level, it seems likely that this will be a playoff team barring catastrophe.
Their most recent win over the Raiders was impressive from the standpoint that they were able to win by double digits and completely dismantle Las Vegas’ offense. Beating up on the less-talented offenses in the league was their calling card last year, and they’ve continued that up to this point. Time will tell if their defense can hold up against the elite offenses in the league.
But there is one problem with this team right now that plagued them last year — they still waste too many drives and end up riding the wave of whatever Herbert is capable of that day.
Luckily, Herbert is one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and that can certainly be the reason the Chargers win a game. His presence is necessary on this team because even with him, they still rank 26th in drives that don’t gain a single first down (36.8% through two weeks). Since the start of last season, they’re 29th in drives that don’t gain a first down (38.1%), beating out only the Panthers (38.3%), Jaguars (39.2%) and Giants (39.2%).
Despite them failing to get many drives off the ground, their overall offensive numbers are good, which is the blessing of having one of the best quarterbacks in the game. The Chargers rank seventh in points per drive (2.47) and ninth in expected points added per play (0.09). Herbert’s skills, and the improvement of wide receiver Quenton Johnston, has the Chargers ranking second in passing success rate (54.8%). When the Chargers do manage to get a first down on any drive, they’ve been an incredibly efficient offense. They have a 65% passing success rate on these drives, by far the best mark in the league. Their rushing game hasn’t been consistent, but they clearly have enough here to be a good regular season team as long as Herbert is healthy.
Last year’s blowout loss in the wild-card round to the Houston Texans showed just how damn hard it can be for even a quarterback of Herbert’s caliber to win a playoff game on the road. The Chargers just didn’t have enough around him, which was understandable coming off of a season where they had the fifth pick in the draft, but it appears they might be in the same predicament where they’re overly reliant on Herbert playing hero ball.
Colts have a juggernaut offense through 2 weeks?
Look, this is absurd. The Indianapolis Colts have suddenly become an elite offense after losing two starting offensive linemen in free agency and benching former first-round quarterback Anthony Richardson for Daniel Jones this offseason. There might not have been anyone outside of Indianapolis projecting them to have even an average season, let alone what they’ve done so far.
This start is just so surprising that it doesn’t seem possible to answer the question concerning the precise team quality of the Colts. Are they the Saints from last year, who scored 91 points over their first two games before cratering the rest of the season? Or is this real? We won’t know that for a few more months, and it doesn’t seem responsible to marry yourself to a side in this debate.
Instead, just look at what the Colts have done through two weeks. Right now, via TruMedia, the Jones-led Colts are:
First in points per drive (3.65)
First in percentage of drives failing to get a first down (5.9%)
First in expected points added per drive (1.48)
First in passing success rate (59.2%)
First in percentage of plays going for a first down or touchdown (34.3%)
First in average distance for a first on third down (5.25
Second in expected points added per play (0.18)
Third in expected points added per dropback (0.35)
Fourth in sack percentage (3.1%)
Tied for first with no turnovers
Anyone who predicted this, congratulations — we still won’t be listening to you in the future. Even for a small two-game sample, this is one of the most baffling results possible in the league this season. It’s so out of left field that figuring out whether or not this is the team that Colts fans will get all season doesn’t seem right. Just look at it, acknowledge it and confirm that forces around us move the world in mysterious ways.
Ravens' offense is scoring in bunches and has room to improve
The league’s best offense from a year ago is off to another hot start, with the Baltimore Ravens opening their season with back-to-back 40-point games against the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns. Lamar Jackson is still very much Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry is still Derrick Henry (we forgive him for that Week 1 fumble) and this will undoubtedly be a dominant offense as long as those two players stay healthy together.
What’s interesting here is that even though the Ravens are lighting up the scoreboard, which is ultimately the most important end goal, they haven’t been as complete as last year’s offense on a down-to-down basis. Which should be completely terrifying for the rest of the teams on their schedule.
There’s a split in the deeper numbers on how the Ravens’ offense has performed this year. They are first in yards per play (6.5), second in points per drive (3.22), third in expected points added per play (0.18) and first in explosive play rate (16.5%). Scoring points is the name of the game and the Ravens are still one of the best offenses in the league when it comes to putting points on the board. The one eyebrow-raising thing about their start is the fact that they’re much more boom-or-bust on a down-to-down basis.
While they do rank top of the league in the previously mentioned statistics, they’ve been middle of the road or worse in terms of the amount of plays that are helping them move forward and score points. The Ravens are tied for 21st in percentage of drives without a first down (34.1%), 19th in success rate (42%), 21st in third down conversion rate (39.1%) and 28th in average third down distance (8.1).
There are two ways to look at this split in the data. One, the Ravens are a little too reliant on ripping off big plays, and any regression in that area could wind up being a big hit to the offense if they can’t improve their consistency. Or, the case can be made that this is even more scary for what they can do this season if they can be a bit more productive outside of their explosive plays. It’s hard to draw any conclusions from this in an overall sense, but it is a bit eye-opening.
Still, it’s hard to actually be too concerned about where the Ravens are right now. This is a small sample size of two games in which they’ve still averaged 40.5 points per game. They have Hall of Famers in their prime at quarterback and running back. It’s hard to see them actually falling off in a way that would be damaging toward their hopes of winning the Super Bowl.