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Week 11 of the NFL season began with another less than memorable Thursday night game, as the New England Patriots beat the New York Jets 27-14 as 13.5-point favorites.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping team of Ed Feng and Matt Jacob combine to give their best bets for Week 11 of the NFL season. This article will be updated throughout the weekend.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change.

Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 47.5)in Berlin

Jacob: Tua Tagovailoa has been very much like a box of chocolates this season: You never know what you’re gonna get.

For example, the Dolphins’ quarterback has failed to eclipse 205 passing yards seven times in 10 games (falling short of 180 yards five times). His yardage totals in Miami’s other three contests: 256, 261 and 315.

In other words, it can be risky to wager on (or against) Tagovailoa. That being said, it’s impossible to envision the sixth-year pro not lighting up the Commanders’ secondary in Berlin on Sunday ... because every quarterback has lit up the Commanders’ secondary recently.

In Week 6, Caleb Williams threw for 252 yards. Then Dak Prescott went for 264 yards. Then Patrick Mahomes racked up 299 yards. Then Sam Darnold erupted for 330 yards. And last week, it was Jared Goff’s turn to have a field day, and he put up 320 yards.

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Also shredding Washington this season: Geno Smith (289 yards), Jordan Love (292) and Michael Penix Jr. (313).

That leaves Russell Wilson (168 yards in Week 1) and, oddly, Justin Herbert (166) as the only QBs who failed to torch the Commanders.

Bet: Tua Tagovailoa over 238.5 passing yards (-115)

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 49)

Feng: The Steelers are not a good football team. It’s a testament to the coaching ability of Mike Tomlin that he has this team slightly above NFL average based on my adjusted numbers from this season. However, Cincinnati is much worse. With data based on Joe Flacco, I have Cincinnati five points worse than NFL average, mainly driven by an awful defense that most likely won’t have edge Trey Hendrickson this week. In addition, I have Flacco as the sixth-best active QB based on my adjusted passing success rate. 

This is not sustainable for the 40-year-old QB with a nagging shoulder injury. My model has Pittsburgh by 6.8 points.

Bet: Steelers -5.5

Feng: Flacco gave Cincinnati an immediate reprieve from the turnover-prone Jake Browning, as Flacco didn’t throw a pick in his first three games as a Bengal. However, he had two interceptions last week against Chicago. 

My interception model looks at interceptions and passes defended, and this bad ball rate tends to be very predictive for a quarterback. This is why I still use data for Flacco with his other teams like Cleveland and Indianapolis in assigning the 61.8% chance he throws a pick against Pittsburgh.

Bet: Flacco over 0.5 INTs (-125)

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 48.5)

Jacob: Not so long ago, Justin Jefferson was one of the NFL’s most reliable touchdown scorers. To wit: The Vikings’ receiver kicked off the 2024 season with a five-game scoring streak and notched six touchdowns in his first seven games..

Since then? Jefferson has scored five times in 20 games (seven total TDs in all), and he’s endured two separate six-game scoreless droughts.

During this 20-game stretch, Jefferson has faced the Bears on three occasions. He scored in two of those contests, including the 2025 season opener in the Windy City.

Jefferson’s Week 1 touchdown is one of 20 aerial scores Chicago has surrendered this season. Only the Jaguars (21), Cowboys (22), Commanders (22) and Bengals (23) have allowed more touchdown receptions.

Bet: Justin Jefferson anytime TD (+120)

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 43.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacob: You know the old adage, “Be careful betting on West Coast teams that have to play early games in the Eastern time zone”? The Chargers debunked it last season, going 4-1 SU and ATS in such games.

This year? Totally different story.

In Week 4, the Bolts took a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS record to the Meadowlands and lost 21-18 to Jackson Dart and the winless Giants as a 6-point favorite.

Two weeks later, Jim Harbaugh’s crew trekked to South Beach and barely held off the then-freefalling Dolphins 29-27, failing to cover as a 4-point favorite.

Finally, two weeks ago, Los Angeles went to Nashville as a 10-point favorite against the lowly Titans and prevailed 27-20.

Kickoff time in all three games: 1 p.m. ET.

Now the Chargers are crossing the country one more time, and yet again it’s a 1 p.m. ET start.

Four trips from Southern California to the East Coast in eight weeks is brutal. And the Jaguars are clearly the best opponent L.A. has faced in this situation.

It’s the same Jaguars team that defeated Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs 31-28 at home in Week 5 (albeit without Travis Hunter) — and the same Jaguars who will be fuming after blowing a 19-point, four-quarter lead in Houston a week ago.

Bet: Jaguars +3 (-115)

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-3, 48.5)

Jacob: There are many ways to answer the question “How amazing has Matthew Stafford been this season?” Here’s one:

The 49ers rank 26th out of 32 teams in passing touchdowns allowed. Had they not faced Stafford twice — once in Week 5, once in Week 10 — they would rank eighth.

Yep, the Rams’ quarterback has accounted for nearly 37% of the TD passes thrown against San Francisco (seven of 19).

Stafford’s passing TD totals in his last six games: 3, 3, 1, 5, 4, 4.

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This week, Stafford takes on the Seahawks in a battle of teams tied atop the NFC West standings. Seattle has only given up 13 aerial scores this season — tied for 10th fewest in the NFL. And while the Seahawks have allowed two touchdown passes five times, they’ve never allowed more than two.

Of course, they haven’t faced Stafford yet.

Bet: Matthew Stafford over 2.5 passing TDs (+160)

The Yahoo Fantasy Football crew reveals their boldest takes for Week 11. Check out what Scott Pianowski, Matt Harmon, Ray Garvin, Chris Allen, Justin Boone and Joel Smyth have to say.

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Rico Dowdle is ready to run for 200 yards vs. Atlanta

The dots connect here — Atlanta’s defense is great against the pass but leaky against the run. Meanwhile, Carolina’s offense wants to hide struggling QB Bryce Young as much as possible. Chuba Hubbard’s best game of the year (17-73 rushing) came in the initial meeting between the teams, but Dowdle’s ceiling is obviously a lot higher. Get your calculator ready. — Scott Pianowski

Sean Tucker finds the end zone vs. Bills

Even if Bucky Irving is active, I don’t think Tampa Bay hands him a full workload right away after the layoff. The smart move is to keep the offense explosive by pairing Tucker with Irving while limiting Rachaad White’s touches to passing-down work. Tucker has been the most decisive runner in this room without Irving, and his burst is noticeable compared to White. Buffalo’s front has been giving up big runs against explosive runners. Backs are finding success in the gaps and on the edge vs. the Bills of late. We just watched De’Von Achane run wild over them and Tucker can attack those same lanes if given the opportunity. Baker Mayfield has this group playing as well as can be expected given this team's injury luck, which sets up valuable carries near the goal line. With Irving potentially being eased in, Tucker can still find success.

Plant it now. Tucker punches in a score this week, even if Irving is back in the lineup. — Ray Garvin

Jaylen Waddle finishes as the WR1 overall

I don’t think most realize how good Jaylen Waddle has been since inheriting the No. 1 receiver gig from Tyreek Hill after he went on IR following Week 4. Since Week 5, Waddle ranks fifth in yards per route run (2.94), fifth in first downs per route (13.3%) and 10th in total EPA on his targets (30.3). Simply put, he’s played like one of the best receivers in football. He was always capable of being this guy, he was just blocked by a veteran given more layup routes than him. Now, we see what Waddle can do when elevated in the progression. 

Here in Week 11, he gets a matchup in Madrid against a Commanders defense that doesn’t come close to matching his level of speed. While he can beat man coverage, all of Waddle’s efficiency metrics increase against zone coverage. Washington allows the most points per dropback in zone coverage, per Fantasy Points Data. I expect Waddle to put up a huge number early Sunday morning. — Matt Harmon

Jaylen Warren finishes as a top-3 fantasy RB

Warren’s best game of the season from a yardage standpoint came when he played the Bengals in Week 7. During that contest, he racked up 158 scrimmage yards on 21 touches and was the RB10 overall. It’s no secret that Cincinnati’s defense has been the easiest matchup for fantasy backs this year, allowing weekly finishes of RB3, RB3, RB10, RB4, RB9, RB13, RB4, RB12 and RB16. The Steelers are favored by 5.5 points in a game with one of the highest projected point totals on the slate at 48.5. That’s a very nice environment for a spike week from a running back who has a very favorable schedule the rest of the way. If you haven’t tried to trade for Warren yet, make sure you get an offer out before Sunday. — Justin Boone

Jordan Addison sneaks back into the top 25 vs. Bears

On the positive side, Addison has earned a 23.4% target share (4 and 11 single-game totals) in his two full games with J.J. McCarthy. Addison also led the team in air yards during their divisional win over the Lions. Said another way, the opportunity has been there for the third-year receiver. But the rapport with McCarthy is still developing. Despite the volume, he was down to a 50% catchable target rate last Sunday. But facing the Bears will help both the QB and receiver. Chicago has averaged the seventh-lowest pressure rate over the last six games while giving up the ninth-most yards per game to receivers. Plus, the Bears have given up a catch of 20 yards or more in every game since Week 6. So while the quality of targets is a concern for Addison, in this matchup, the volume should get him back into the WR2 conversation. — Chris Allen

Greg Dulcich becomes a fantasy TE1 for the week

As someone who loved Greg Dulcich out of college, I’m speaking this into existence. The Dolphins travel to Spain this weekend as their young TE looks to capitalize on his increased playing time. Dulcich’s route share reached 76% in Week 10, the 12th-best among TEs, or how I would put it, a TE1 route share. If he wants to be a fantasy TE1 this week, those routes will have to turn into production versus a Commanders secondary that ranks 30th in yards per attempt allowed to the position this year. Look for Dulcich to string together a couple of big plays or have his first touchdown since 2022 to place him as a top-12 fantasy TE in Week 11. — Joel Smyth