I didn’t know who Miguel Rojas was until Game 7 of the 2025 World Series. Admittedly, I don’t watch a lot of baseball. Plus, trying to track an infielder who didn’t even play the first five games of the same series during football season is a tough ask. Regardless, hearing about his long road to the majors, ups and downs in L.A. and Miami, ultimately culminating in a career-defining at-bat, reminded me of what development in the NFL can be: Non-linear.
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We try to find trends and patterns in data or film to predict what’ll happen every Thursday, Sunday and Monday. But for some players, it takes time, not just reps, for everything to click. There’s no guarantee what worked before will continue. And it doesn’t always mean we need to panic, but, at the very least, adjust our expectations.
The Bills’ inaction at the trade deadline looms large
During Fantasy Football Live on Sunday morning, I mentioned the Bills’ lack of talent outside of Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. But I was doing a complimentary bit. We want condensed receiver rooms. That desire is even more pronounced when those pass-catchers are attached to a QB like Josh Allen. But there’s a flip side to that coin.
I only saw the above and similar social media posts, so I didn’t have the full context in real time, but two competing thoughts came to mind. First, look at that protection. Per TruMedia, he had 2.8 seconds before pressure and a hilarious 12.1 seconds before heaving the ball. My second notion came when I saw who caught it. Why any team has to rely on Curtis Samuel to convert 3rd-and-16 attempts in 2025 was baffling at first. But then I saw the news from earlier in the game, and it made sense.
The irony is that the Bills’ beatdown and loss of Kincaid came on the heels of the team not making any moves to acquire an offensive skill player at the trade deadline. GM Brandon Beane believes Buffalo has a championship roster, broke down the complexity of receivers learning new systems and requiring development time and took the long view of doling out contracts and their impact on the cap. I have to admit, it at least sounds like a reasonable approach. However, I’ll quibble with the second part. Because if the non-Shakir WRs are any indication, by Beane’s logic, their next receiver won’t be ready for primetime until 2028.
Keon Coleman: 79.0% (Route Rate), 1.32 (Yards per Route Run)
Josh Palmer: 41.5%, 2.07
Tyrell Shavers: 28.7%, 0.74
Elijah Moore: 25.0%, 1.7
Curtis Samuel: 21.3%, 0.71
Everybody has a part-time role. Nobody gets open (consistently). Coleman is in his second year, and over 20% of his targets have been contested looks due to his perimeter role. Palmer has either been hurt or downfield (14.0 air yards per target). And based on his six targets, Samuel must’ve played under a different OC named Joe Brady in Carolina with a separate scheme. But, sarcasm aside, their inability to get on the field, let alone produce, should keep them off our fantasy rosters.
Miami had four corners already on IR, another came into the game with a doubtful designation and the best that four of those Buffalo receivers could do together was 103 total yards and a TD.
The Bills don’t have an obvious counterpunch to losing half of their primary receiving options. And with fantasy managers vying for playoff spots, that level of uncertainty isn’t one to lean into at this point in the season.
New York has a Giant QB problem
Let’s go back to April 24th. If you’d have asked me who would be the better QB between Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart, I’d have sided with Tennessee. Skill level aside, on paper, the Titans’ environment looked better-suited to develop a rookie passer. But, as always, talent won out.
It’s not a stretch to say Jaxson Dart has been the best rookie passer from the ’25 class. He’s the only first-year signal caller with a positive EPA per dropback out of the four with multiple starts (0.07). Even under pressure, Dart not only leads his class in the same metric, but he’s 11th when compared to the rest of the league. And this has primarily been without Malik Nabers and either WRs or offensive linemen missing time. However, his biggest gift to the Giants and former HC Brian Daboll was also something of a curse.
Without question, the kid can boogie once he crosses the line of scrimmage. Dart doesn’t have the size of a Josh Allen or the speed of a Lamar Jackson. But Sunday marked his seventh rushing TD in as many starts. And three came from 15 yards or further. So, the above clip isn’t just a single rep without context. It encapsulates a larger body of work that you could also see through the numbers.
Rushing Rate (Designed + Scrambles): 21.6%, 3rd (amongst all QBs – min. 140 dropbacks)
Scramble EPA: 19.0, 3rd
Rushing First Downs: 26, T-1st
At worst, the Giants found themselves with an above-average passer and drive-extending rusher. It was clear after his third start, and they stunned the Eagles. The cat was out of the bag. They got their guy. Nothing was going to change that. But what should’ve changed was the play-calling.
Week 8: 11.4% (Designed Rushing Rate); blocking TE Daniel Bellinger, RT Jermaine Eluemunor and Cam Skattebo went down
Week 9: 9.3%; C John Michael Schmitz went down, Eluemunor was still out
Week 10: 13.5%; Dart suffers a concussion
If Dart’s rushing totals remained the same because he was scrambling, I could understand it. He’s still learning the position, and using his legs is a natural response. But he had top-10 marks in designed rush rate, while injuries were piling up around him. Dart’s 33 hits coming into Week 10 were the eighth-most of any starter, and the opportunity for contact kept coming. Regardless, the absence of his mobility leaves the Giants' offense with a, well, giant problem.
The reported switch to Jameis Winston does keep the pass-catchers in their respective tiers for now. He had a different crew in Cleveland, but Winston had the highest rate of throws across the middle of the field of the Browns' starters (50.8%), and he could operate under center. In some respects, this shift is like the Cardinals going from Kyler Murray to Jacoby Brissett. However, Winston's tendencies when the pocket breaks down, along with his lack of mobility, will put an added burden on the rushing attack and the offense as a whole until Dart returns.
Let’s give J.J. McCarthy and Justin Jefferson some time
I’ll admit that I didn’t see this game live. But when Matt Harmon and I recapped it, my initial comment was that if Jalen Nailor is leading your receiver room and having a career day, something’s gone wrong. That’s especially true if you have Justin Jefferson on your roster. And after going back to watch it, I had some ideas as to why.
First, let’s talk about the route variety. The Vikings have one of the best route runners in the league as their WR1. In every full season Jefferson has played, he’s finished in the top 10 in yards after the catch per reception (min. 125 targets). However, in Week 10, he only had two manufactured touches (i.e., screens), and seven of his 12 targets were on out-breaking or deep routes with minimal chance for success.
My second takeaway from Sunday’s clips had me all the more confused.
(Per PFF) Behind the LOS: 14.8% (of his attempts), 93.8% (adjusted completion rate)
0-9 Air Yards: 30.6%, 69.7%
10-19 Air Yards: 26.9%, 65.5%
20+: 15.7%, 47.1%
J.J. McCarthy’s decline as he attempts passes farther downfield isn’t that dissimilar from other QBs. But it’s noticeable. Coming into Week 10, "Nine" ranked 23rd out of 38 qualifying passers in EPA per dropback on throws of 10 air yards or more. They’re not his strong suit, yet. So, when you couple his downfield inefficiencies with Jefferson’s 17.8-yard aDOT (a season-high), a four-catch result (on 12 targets!) isn’t too surprising.
I’m not saying head coach Kevin O’Connell should hide his QB through only short-area throws. However, establishing a balance in the degree of difficulty between attempts would give everyone a confidence boost. McCarthy has averaged over 10 air yards per attempt in consecutive games, and the passing game still looks disjointed. But if they involve more quick-game or intermediate shots to Jefferson, we should expect to see things get back on track.
Have defenses reigned in the Colts?
Honestly, out of all the popularized slang I’ve heard over the last few months, I didn’t see calling something a “wagon” coming — when your offense gets mentioned in the same breath as the '07 Patriots, I get it. But over the last few weeks, it’s looked like the wheels might be coming off.
On the one hand, the doubters saw (hoped?) this was coming. They remembered the younger, pre-neck injury version of Daniel Jones taking sacks at an 8.4% clip and knew it was a matter of time. His six takedowns through Week 7 were only a precursor for the inevitable reversion to the mean. And that math hit the journeyman QB like a ton of bricks.
To be clear, this isn’t an indictment of Jones. Even in the above clip, there’s not much else he could’ve done in the moment to stop the turnover. The interception he threw earlier in the game while targeting Alec Pierce was a miscommunication. But he’s been walking the risk-reward tightrope on similar throws all season. In other words, if your QB is averaging the seventh-most air yards per attempt but 18th in attempts per game, these things will happen. However, let’s gauge the fantasy impact of Jones’ sudden turn of fortune.
Week 8: 53.1% (Passing Success Rate), +13.4% (CPOE), 48.3% (First Downs per Attempt)
Week 9: 45.5%, -1.6%, 34.0%
Week 10: 42.4%, +3.1%, 38.5%
Luckily, Jones’ down-to-down consistency, while on the decline, has been good enough to keep the passing game afloat. He’s thrown for more than 250 passing yards in all three of his sack-filled or turnover-riddled performances. With at least one score through the air, we’re starting to see the floor of this offense rather than stare at the ceiling as we’ve done since Week 1, which is why I’m not (yet) worried about two WRs in particular.
If you had shown me Pittman's or Downs' box score a few weeks ago, I’d have chalked it up to the nature of the offense. The Colts feature four above-average pass-catchers each week. Plus, they have an RB with MVP aspirations. Opportunities will fluctuate each week. We’ve done this with the Chargers all year. More importantly, head coach Shane Steichen still likes to dial up play-action concepts (sixth-highest rate of PA in Week 10 alone), and those two WRs have accounted for 41% of Jones’ targets on those plays. Their post-bye matchups may make Jones a mid-range QB2 (KC, HOU, JAX and SEA), but with time to reset, the overall passing efficiency should keep the pass-catchers in our starting rosters for Week 12.