NFL Power Rankings entering Week 12: Will the Chiefs really miss the playoffs?
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Commanders
NFC North: Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | New Orleans Saints | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles Rams | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks
AFC East:Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets
AFC North:Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers
Simple math is staring the Kansas City Chiefs in the face after 10 games this season.
They're 5-5, which is shocking considering they've lost six games in a season only once since Patrick Mahomes became their starting quarterback. To get to 10-7, which is the likely benchmark to make the playoffs in the AFC, Kansas City needs to go 5-2 the rest of the way. A 4-3 finish might not get the Chiefs in. The chances of a 10th straight division title are slim; if the 9-2 Broncos go 3-3 the rest of the way the Chiefs would need to go 7-0 to tie them. And the Chiefs' remaining schedule has some potential losses:
Week 12: vs. Colts
Week 13: at Cowboys
Week 14: vs. Texans
Week 15: vs. Chargers
Week 16: at Titans
Week 17: vs. Broncos
Week 18: at Raiders
The Colts are a good team coming off a bye. The Cowboys game is on a short week as they play on Thanksgiving. Five wins aren't assured.
That's why the Chiefs aren't a lock anymore to make the playoffs. They still are a better bet to make the postseason than not. DVOA has their chance to make the playoffs at 61%. That's not bad, but seeing the Chiefs with a 39% chance to miss the playoffs is startling. The New York Times' playoff simulator has a bleaker outlook, with the Chiefs at 57% to make the playoffs. They're not in great tiebreaker shape with losses already to the Chargers and Broncos in the AFC West and a loss to the Jaguars, who are wild-card contenders.
The Chiefs are capable of getting on a run. Their 0-5 record in close games is as theoretically unsustainable as their 11-0 record in such games last season. They're going to win some one-score games. The talent is still there. But Kansas City is practically in playoff mode already, which is one of the more shocking developments of this NFL season.
Here are the NFL Power Rankings after Week 11:
32 (previous ranking 32): Tennessee Titans (1-9)
The Titans didn’t deserve to win — they got outgained at home 315-229 while facing a backup quarterback — but they had a shot at it. Cam Ward made some big plays. For a team that is having an all-time awful season, a last-second loss is real progress.
31 (31): Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)
Even for the low bar the Raiders have set for themselves this season, Monday night's blowout loss at home to the Cowboys was a miserable performance. Everything seems broken. Is Pete Carroll going to be one-and-done in Las Vegas?
30 (30): New Orleans Saints (2-8)
The big news of the bye week might have been Saints owner Gayle Benson, in a rare interview with the New Orleans Times-Picayune, saying the idea of firing GM Mickey Loomis was “ridiculous.” So it doesn’t seem Loomis will pay for the Saints missing the playoffs for a fifth straight season.
29 (28): New York Jets (2-8)
The Jets are changing quarterbacks from Justin Fields to Tyrod Taylor, which means little for a 2-8 team but it indicates Fields won’t be back in 2026. That shouldn’t be a surprise. It is a good sign the Jets will be on the quarterback carousel again.
28 (29): Cleveland Browns (2-8)
Myles Garrett’s day was overshadowed by Shedeur Sanders’ debut, but his greatness should be recognized. He had four sacks, giving him 10 over the past three games. With 15 sacks through 10 games, he has a shot at the single-season record of 22.5.
27 (27): New York Giants (2-9)
Abdul Carter denied that he was benched for the start of Sunday’s game because he slept through a walkthrough, but whatever the reason, Carter’s huge disappointment of a rookie season is slipping under the radar. Carter is stuck on half of a sack this season, which isn’t good enough.
26 (25): Washington Commanders (3-8)
After a 16-13 loss to the Dolphins, there was news the Commanders’ Week 13 game vs. Denver on Sunday night won’t be flexed out of prime time, which is a bizarre decision by the NFL. Nobody wants to watch Washington in its current state, not even Commanders fans.
25 (21): Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
Michael Penix Jr. seems done for the season, and aside from the bigger picture question of whether Penix is the permanent answer, it probably means the Falcons are in for more losses. That makes their draft day trade of a first-round pick to the Rams look much, much worse.
24 (24): Arizona Cardinals (3-7)
Jacoby Brissett’s 47 completions might be the emptiest record in NFL history. The Cardinals got blown out and they had to throw a lot against a bad 49ers defense. At this point, there’s nothing the Cardinals do well. Head coach Jonathan Gannon might be in real trouble.
23 (23): Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)
The Bengals never really were in the playoff hunt, due to a defense that can’t stop anyone. A loss to the Steelers reinforces that. If Joe Burrow can play in the next few weeks he probably will, but the Ja’Marr Chase suspension makes it even less likely the Bengals remain relevant.
22 (26): Miami Dolphins (4-7)
This Dolphins surge is remarkable. At 1-6 they were undeniably one of the NFL’s worst teams. Since then they’ve won three of four and there are some winnable games coming up. Maybe Mike McDaniel can survive for another season, after all.
21 (22): Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)
Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams made a big impact in his Cowboys debut, with 1.5 sacks and five quarterback hits. Dallas played what was likely their best defensive game of the season. The Cowboys paid a lot to get Williams, but they got a very good defensive lineman from the Jets.
20 (18): Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
This is a scary period for the Vikings. J.J. McCarthy was given the keys to the offense after missing his rookie season, and the early returns are very bad. It has been just five NFL starts, but you’d like to see some positive strides. That’s what needs to happen over the rest of the season.
19 (20): Carolina Panthers (6-5)
Seeing Bryce Young (443 passing yards) and Tetairoa McMillan (130 receiving yards) go off in a win was great for a building Panthers team. Are the Panthers a real playoff contender? Probably not, though the Buccaneers haven’t run away with the division. But there is progress being made.
18 (16): Houston Texans (5-5)
Barely beating the Titans is not a good look, but a win is a win. Especially with C.J. Stroud out. And the Texans might have to play again without Stroud this week. They play the Bills on Thursday night and as of Monday, Stroud hadn’t been cleared from concussion protocol.
17 (17): Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
The Steelers have a huge three-game sequence coming up. They play at the Bears, then host the Bills and travel to face the Ravens. It won’t be easier without Aaron Rodgers, who has a wrist injury but reportedly wants to play in Week 12.
16 (12): Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
That was a troubling loss for the Chargers. They’re unlikely to fall off completely, but the flaws are evident. The offensive line in particular is a liability due to injuries, and Justin Herbert is taking way too much punishment. The Chargers’ season could go either way from here on out.
15 (19): Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
Blowing that game to the Texans in Week 10 could be damaging. Imagine if the Jaguars were just a game behind the Colts now. As is, the emphatic win over the Chargers puts the Jaguars right back in the race. And the tiebreaker over the Chiefs might loom large by the end of the season.
14 (13): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
The Buccaneers don’t have a bad loss (Eagles, Lions, Patriots, Bills). But the losses are piling up, and it’s allowing the Panthers to stay in the divisional race. Next up is a matchup against the Rams, another game that wouldn’t be a bad loss, but would make the NFC South even tighter.
13 (15): San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
The 49ers got the win but also gave up 488 yards to a Cardinals offense without Kyler Murray, James Conner or Marvin Harrison Jr. It’s impressive that the 49ers are winning in spite of injuries, but it’s still hard to see them being a Super Bowl contender.
12 (14): Chicago Bears (7-3)
The Bears pulled another win out of the fire, rallying for a field goal after the Vikings took a late lead. They’ve had five wins by five points or less. At some point that good fortune might run out, but they’ve already stacked seven wins and need only a few more to be in the playoff field.
11 (11): Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
The Ravens had a tricky game at Cleveland in bad weather against a very good defense and found a way to win. Style points don’t matter much. The call to run a fake tush push on fourth down and have Mark Andrews peel off for a run around right end took guts. The Ravens are rolling now.
10 (5): Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
The Chiefs still aren’t getting enough big plays. They had one 61-yard gain to Tyquan Thornton but no other play of more than 21 yards. It would be nice to have a running back who could make a big play, but all they have are plodders. Maybe getting Xavier Worthy involved would help.
9 (10): Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)
The Packers pulled off another escape against a bad team, barely beating a Giants team that is on its third quarterback of the season. The Packers still have the ability to level up this season, but it has been a very uninspiring stretch for them since the first two games this season.
8 (9): Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Keon Coleman showing up late to meetings and getting himself suspended overshadowed another monster Josh Allen performance. The Bills need help at receiver and Coleman has been disappointing on and off the field. Patience might be running out, even in just his second season.
7 (6): Detroit Lions (6-4)
The Lions’ loss on Sunday night brought up the old story of Jared Goff struggling outdoors when the weather isn’t perfect, and it’s hard to deny that his stats plummet in the elements. And Sunday’s loss means a No. 1 seed and home-field advantage through the playoffs is unlikely.
6 (8): New England Patriots (9-2)
It took Mike Vrabel and his staff almost three seasons to finally feature Derrick Henry in Tennessee. It didn’t take so long for TreVeyon Henderson, but it’s still weird how a smart coaching staff couldn’t see what Henderson could bring to the offense until the Patriots were forced to use him.
5 (7): Denver Broncos (9-2)
The Broncos will just keep winning games while everyone decides they’re not really that good. The offense is inconsistent, but a defense without Patrick Surtain II and Alex Singleton still had a great day against the Chiefs. Maybe at some point they’ll get their proper respect.
4 (3): Seattle Seahawks (7-3)
Sam Darnold had four interceptions, the Seahawks settled for too many field goals in the red zone, and they still would have beat one of the best teams in the NFL on the road if a 61-yard field goal found its mark. There’s no reason to downgrade the Seahawks much. They’ll be just fine.
3 (2): Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
Sunday’s game at the Chiefs is fascinating. The Colts have extra rest coming off a bye. If they want to legitimize everything they’ve done, a win at Arrowhead Stadium would do exactly that. A loss would have everyone doubting them again, and it would give the Jaguars hope in the AFC South.
2 (4): Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
The Rams deserve credit for getting to Sam Darnold and forcing those four interceptions. They were mostly outplayed by Seattle other than that, but it doesn’t matter much. That win was huge in the NFC West. They will need to play better in the Week 16 rematch at Seattle.
1 (1): Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
Lane Johnson’s injury will knock him out 4-6 weeks and everyone by now knows the Eagles aren’t nearly as good without their All-Pro right tackle. Still, the Eagles are becoming masterful at overcoming adversity. Their defense is finally hitting its stride, too.