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The Nobel Prize for Literature stands as one of the literary world’s most esteemed prizes, a Lombardi Trophy for scribes who mine the mysteries of the human condition. And yet, every so often, the committee that awards the Nobel looks at all of a given year’s contenders and decides, “Nope. These all stink. No winner this year.” It’s gatekeeping at an elite level.

The NFL does not award a Nobel Prize, which is a shame because Ed Reed deserves at least two. Every single year, the league crowns a champion, no matter how dominant (‘85 Bears, ‘72 Dolphins) or undeserving (...we’ll let you decide that one). Every season, somebody has to win the whole damn thing.

Which brings us to this season. One-third of the way through, here’s what we know: Every team has vast, visible-from-space flaws. (Except one, and we’ll get to them in a moment.) The Bills looked unbeatable until they got worked over by the Falcons, who got boatraced by the Panthers. The Chiefs lost to the Jaguars, who proceeded to get annihilated by the Rams, who needed to come from behind to beat the Texans. The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles didn’t lose a game until they got whomped by the Giants, who then gave up 33 points in a quarter to the Broncos. The Packers seemed a trendy Super Bowl pick until they got beat by the Cleveland Browns, who remain the Cleveland Browns.

You get the idea. We know who’s already out of this — sorry, Saints, Titans, Dolphins and Jets — but we still have no idea who’s actually in this thing. Matter of fact, there’s only one team that hasn’t shown any real flaws yet … and that, in itself, is enough to raise eyebrows and concerns. Let’s consider them … and a handful of others, too, for good measure.

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AFC contenders

Indianapolis Colts (6-1)

Back in August, we could have given you 45 guesses at which team would have the best record in the NFL a third of the way through the season, and you would’ve probably guessed Ohio State before you guessed the Colts. Hell, the Colts aren’t even the biggest football story this fall in the state of Indiana. But here they are at 6-1, pacing the entire AFC with a conference-leading offense and a league-leading 33.1 points per game. Yes, they’re on their eighth starting quarterback in eight years, but somehow Daniel Jones has this jalopy of castoff parts leading the pack. This might be a case where a team sprints out to an early lead and then fades, but given the flimsy status of both the AFC South and the conference as a whole, Indy is in good shape to stay in the conversation until January.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)

Elbowing their way into that same conversation is an old familiar mustachioed face. You thought the Chiefs were done when they started 0-2? Yeah, right. They’re the TikTok-era equivalent of the Patriots; you can’t count them out of the Super Bowl chase until, like, next April. Yes, they had those early stumbles. Yes, they lost to the Jaguars. But if Trevor Lawrence doesn’t stumble his way to the most improbable game-winning touchdown of the decade, KC is 5-2 and all the same old fears of another Chiefs Super Bowl are resurfacing.

New England Patriots (5-2)

They’ve got a grouchy, hardheaded head coach and an opportunistic, strategic quarterback. Sound familiar? Uh-oh.

Denver Broncos (5-2)

Sean Payton has been building this team piece-by-piece for awhile now, and with Bo Nix he has the centerpiece quarterback he’s craved. The come-from-way-behind win over the Giants Sunday has a turning-point feel to it … this is a team that now has empirical evidence that it’s not out of any game, and that’s a dangerous team indeed.

Buffalo Bills (4-2)

Hey, remember them? Sure, they haven’t won since September, and they got exposed by the Patriots and Falcons. But they have defining games against the Chiefs and Bucs over the next four weeks that will tell us a whole lot about their season and their prospects.

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NFC contenders

Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)

Right about the time that all the “Eagles-are-cooked” thinkpieces started landing, Philadelphia steps out and throws around the Vikings for a necessary win. Long, long way to go for Philly, and a very predictable offense remains a problem, but if that locker room can get realigned and that coaching staff can get more imaginative, this’ll be a team in the hunt.

Detroit Lions (4-2)

Not a great sign that their two losses so far have been to the kinds of teams they’ll face in the postseason. Anyone can fatten up on the Browns and Bengals of the world; losses to the Packers and Chiefs hurt. Monday night against Tampa Bay looms as a key temperature-check matchup for Detroit.

Los Angeles Rams (5-2)

Guess the one team to beat the Colts so far this year. Go on, guess.

San Francisco 49ers (5-2)

Somehow, despite injuries all over the field, the 49ers are thriving at 5-2. Even more impressive: Christian McCaffrey isn’t one of those injuries, and he reminded the world on Sunday night just what a devastating sledgehammer he can be. With Mac Jones efficiently and effectively taking over Brock Purdy’s slot, the 49ers are basically rebuilding the plane while it’s in the air … and at the moment, it’s working.

The Bays (Tampa 5-1; Green 4-1-1)

Tampa Bay is winning games by its fingernails, and hit its health-insurance deductible in Week 2. Green Bay somehow has only lost one game, but feels like it’s been so much more because they’ve lacked the dominance and pop we expected to see out of them coming into the year. Either one (or both) could, should be dangerous late in the year … if this were a normal year.

You could also throw Pittsburgh (4-2), Seattle (4-2) and the Chargers (4-3) into the mix. Shoot, at this point you could toss in anybody with a .500 record — a full 20 teams right now — as a viable playoff contender. And from there, who knows? The only certainty is that someone’s going to win this whole thing … and it ain’t going to be the Jets.

Each Monday, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth will go over 10 important stats that you may have overlooked from this week. Week 7 was full of surprises. What keys to fantasy football success do you need to know that your leaguemates may have missed?

29.4%

Rashee Rice’s target share in his first game back since his LCL injury/suspension. His target share from his Week 12 breakout in 2023 up until his injury in 2024 sat at 26.6%. If his Game 1 is any sign, fantasy managers are going to get exactly what they hoped for.

Rice now has 8+ targets in 11 of his last 14 games played. His volume is already encouraging, but the best thing about the Chiefs Week 7 attack came in the red zone. Of Mahomes' six passing attempts inside the 10-yard line, four went to Rice, including multiple that were designed plays. In a creative, effective offense, Rice’s talents are being used to the fullest extent from the get-go.

With entering the lineup midseason, Rice only ran 19 routes (compared to Worthy’s 30), meaning his targets per route were north of 50%. It’s looking like the Chiefs WR will have elite volume, on an elite offense, with a fantasy-friendly role. Wheel’s up.

72.2%

Rico Dowdle’s percent of carries in the second half. After only being given four carries to Chuba Hubbard’s nine in the first half, Dowdle’s hot hand won out. The Panthers gave over 70% of RB carries to Dowdle in both the third and fourth quarters, as he turned 13 second-half carries into 61 rushing yards, while Hubbard had five carries for five yards.

The efficiency numbers in Week 7 were nearly identical to the numbers to begin the year. Hubbard wasn’t bad, but Dowdle was just better. The Panthers offensive line propels the Carolina RB room near the top in fantasy value. To start 2025, the Panthers RBs have combined for the eighth-most fantasy PPG. Both can provide value, but I would expect more of the same going forward in terms of workload. Despite the money heavily favoring Hubbard, I believe Dowdle has the better odds to pull away in usage. However, 55% of RB touches for Dowdle is what I’d expect on average week-to-week, due to the commitment (in multiple facets) the Panthers have with Hubbard. Although Dowdle has been a level above, a talented team captain at RB being paid $33 million is unlikely to get much less than 45% of the workload.

11

Second-half targets for Travis Hunter, the second-most by a WR this year (Ja’Marr Chase 12 on TNF). There was also a change in where his targets were. Last week, we saw six of his seven targets come on targets fewer than five yards downfield. On Sunday, nine of his 14 targets were further than five yards, including four being over 15 yards downfield. It was the first sign this season from the Jaguars' playcalling of Hunter being used as a legitimate WR downfield.

If we include Hunter’s consistently increasing route share, the long-term confidence takes another step in the right direction. This is now the sixth consecutive week that Hunter’s route share has increased, running a route on 89% of dropbacks Sunday. His season high did come alongside playing only 12 snaps on defense, down for the fourth straight week.

The obvious downside to Hunter’s utilization is Brian Thomas Jr. Same story, different week. Just as things were starting to come together, the Jaguars offense reminded us of their inconsistency as a whole. Thomas left the game early, but still ran 21 routes in the second half, resulting in zero yards. Without a quarterback able to support two fantasy wide receivers, it will be a pick-and-pray going forward between the two Jaguars weapons.

3

Rushing TDs for Jonathan Taylor, again. Three games of three touchdowns, the most since Derrick Henry in 2021, and we’re seven weeks in. Indianapolis has the best scoring offense in the league behind a top-five rate in run-playcalls. It’s all coming on the ground for Jonathan Taylor, with over 18 fantasy PPG on the ground alone, while no other player averages 14.

I would compare his success directly to Barkley’s in 2024. The explosive runs that have disappeared for Barkley are all over the place for Taylor. With the help of his offensive line, Taylor has the eighth-best yards before contact (as a “power” back) and a league-leading 255 yards from explosive carries. His 36.5% of yards from explosive carries is similar to Barkley’s historic season.

The Colts' red zone work is what can keep Taylor as the overall RB1. Indianapolis is first in red zone drives, where they run at the third-highest rate with the sixth-highest success rate. JT’s lead in goal-line attempts will only increase, as long as he doesn’t score too many touchdowns on explosive runs.

33.3%

Kyren Williams’ goal-line touch rate in 2025. Last season, Williams 5.2 fantasy PPG on goal-line attempts was by far the best in the NFL. That didn’t just come from incredible efficiency, but because he had the third-best rate among RBs with 49% of the touches inside the five-yard line. His current 33.3% rate drops him from third to 16th. It’s been a negative so far, but… there is hope.

A few things can turn it around for Williams’ fantasy production. 

1. The Rams offense has been much better. After being the 20th-ranked scoring offense in 2024, they currently rank 12th this season. 

2. For an RB who’s a great goal-line rusher, his efficiency, a lot of which is due to bad luck, has been down. Williams 20 goal-line carries last season resulted in 12 touchdowns. This season? Only two touchdowns on seven goal-line attempts. 

If the offense continues the way it is, yes, Adams may get the annoying one-yard touchdowns that he’s well-known for, but Williams will benefit when his number is called, even if the percentage is lower overall.

44

The number of targets Stefon Diggs has on the season without a TD. There are 30 WRs this season who have 44+ targets. The only other player without a touchdown is Jerry Jeudy. There are many differences between Diggs and Jeudy, but for this stat, the primary one is that Cleveland has five passing touchdowns on the year, while New England has 12. Usually, a WR1 on a team would have at least one of the team’s 12 passing touchdowns, and the numbers would confirm it’s coming.

In last week’s YouTube video, I went over TD regression, both positive and negative, for players whose expected touchdowns based on their volume were significantly different than their actual scores. The top-two WRs with positive regression looming were Davante Adams and Chris Olave. On Sunday, the combined for five scores. The top TE? Trey McBride, two TDs. The top RB? Christian McCaffrey, two TDs. Diggs’ time is coming.

72.7%

The percentage of touches going to Josh Jacobs inside the three-yard line this season. Jacobs is the Jalen Hurts of fantasy RBs. It’s the reason TD regression for Jacobs isn’t necessarily around the corner. The Packers are top-five in red zone drives per game this season. Once they get down to the goal line, the plan is simple: jam it up the middle. Not only running it, but always (literally 100%) to Jacobs.

So yes, the Packers star RB has eight touchdowns in six games. He also has 25 touchdowns in 24 games since coming to Green Bay. If the other shoe hasn’t dropped at this point, there’s usually a reason. As long as the Packers offense stays on top, so will Jacobs.

68.1%

The pass-play rate for Philadelphia since Week 5, the fifth-highest in the NFL. The revival of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown has been the dagger to Saquon Barkley over the last few weeks. The Eagles have been extreme in their game plans so far, with all but one game being either below a 60% pass rate or above 80%. However, the pace of play is much higher, going from the slowest over the first two weeks to middle of the road since, as well as Hurts’ yards per attempt jumping back up to his usual.

Now the main issue: Saquon Barkley. What’s going on? The volume is down, but it’s not the main issue, making it more difficult to fix. Barkley has yet to have 100+ scrimmage yards in a game this season. Last year, he crossed that mark in 13 of his 16 games played. The coaching scheme, mixed with the offensive line downgrade, are the problems. Barkley’s yards before contact have dropped from the best rate among RBs in 2024 to 27th (out of 37 qualified RBs) in 2025. The Eagles are running much more zone runs, yet with much fewer designed runs with Jalen Hurts (excluding tush pushes). Defenses have less to account for, and Barkley has less room to run.

One stat that perfectly emphasizes this: Barkley had 835 rushing yards on explosive carries alone in 2024, 42% of his total yardage… in 2025, that has dropped to 18.7% with only 69 explosive rush yards on the season.

77.0%

Oronde Gadsden’s route share on Justin Herbert’s 61 dropbacks in Week 7. The rookie TE’s usage has now increased in each of his five career games, vaulting him to the overall TE1 spot of Week 7. The leader in TE route rate entering the week was Trey McBride (naturally) at 88.0%, with only five TEs above 77%. For a fantasy TE, especially a rookie, posting top-12 fantasy TE production in back-to-back weeks is noteworthy.

There is plenty to trust when compared to other TE waiver options. Gadsden has 7+ targets in three of his first five career games, has an incredible quarterback, a pass-happy offense and an elite college production profile. The rookie wasn’t a nobody in college, but rather dominated Power-5 football from a young age, much like many current NFL stars. Los Angeles will have a tough Week 8 matchup versus Minnesota, but a great month of the schedule following. He would be my top option available on fantasy waiver wires.

0

Receptions, points, yards, anything from George Kittle on Sunday Night Football. I’d like to consider myself a fantasy nerd who doesn’t overreact when it’s unnecessary. So here’s your coping stat to calm down.

Kittle has had six games where he has had either zero or one reception since 2021. This is nothing (too) new. The following game after a Kittle floor week, the 49ers TE averaged 21.8 PPR PPG. He’s been the fantasy TE1 in PPG back-to-back seasons for a reason. I’m not panicking on one game where Mac Jones had 152 passing yards and no touchdowns, against the No. 1 passing defense in the NFL, might I add. Everyone, take a deep breath.

“Seattle’s finest” doesn’t just refer to what’s proudly brewed in the Pacific Northwest — and what those of us in the Eastern Time zone will be needing in spades on Tuesday morning given the 10 p.m. start in this one. It could also refer to the Seahawks sitting atop the NFL in many advanced metrics, including FTN’s DVOA rankings.

Seattle got clipped by Baker Mayfield and edged by the 49ers (both at home), so their 4-2 record is keeping them from the top of the standings, but the Seahawks appear to be for real when you look deeper into the numbers.

As for the Texans, they’re following in the footsteps of the Falcons and Bears, who came off extra-long byes last week and won as outright underdogs on MNF. Seattle is supposed to be one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, but it hasn’t been during Mike Macdonald’s regime, as the Seahawks are 4-8 at home during his tenure.

So, will the 12s show up and make an impact off the field?

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 41)

If those at Lumen Field can light up the decibel meter, C.J. Stroud and his alleged protectors on the offensive line are going to have a hard time communicating and getting off the ball. Especially, if the Houston offense finds itself in a one-dimensional situation.

The Seahawks’ run defense has not just gone from a liability in recent seasons, to adequate, but every time Seattle’s opponents even attempt a run play this season, they lose a quarter of an expected point (-0.24 EPA/play). Meanwhile, the Texans got a big touchdown run from veteran Nick Chubb in their last MNF appearance, but in all 93 other rushing attempts, he and rookie Woody Marks have each averaged exactly 3.8 yards per carry. That would put them at 27th in the NFL, just one spot ahead of the Seahawks’ own running game.

With neither team expected to be able to run the ball with much success, this game should be on the arm of a quarterback who’s got one excellent receiving option and a supporting cast around them. However, the defenses will have something to say about that as well.

The Texans have a reputed secondary with Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre and Kamari Lassiter. For Seattle, all we hear about are the injury issues to the defensive backfield, but maybe too much has been made of a trio of players who were out last week.

Arguably, Seattle’s best defender, Devon Witherspoon, has played in just two games this season, but he’s expected to return this week, and will see a fair amount of Nico Collins — whose numbers tend to dip on the road. Commonly considered Witherspoon’s running mate, Riq Woolen has spent the season the subject of trade rumors, as his PFF ranking is 103rd among cornerbacks, thanks to a grade of 41 in coverage. 

Meanwhile, veteran defensive back Shaquill Griffin has come off the practice squad the last two weeks, while Josh Jobe and Derion Kendrick stepped in well enough to slow down the Jaguars last week. Plus, the Jacksonville game was just the second for highly-touted rookie safety Nick Emmanwori, as Macdonald deployed a three-safety alignment, even without Julian Love (questionable for Monday).

Macdonald’s ability to make it work with whomever is available is the key to the Seahawks’ success this week. Stroud hasn’t seen a defense coordinated by Macdonald since book-ending his rookie season by getting shut down by his Ravens’ units in both games. With the “12s” in full throat, and the still-shaky Houston offensive line vulnerable to pressure, expect Seattle to take a lead and hold it in their first prime-time (sorta) game of the season.

Pick: Seahawks -3

Player props

QB Sam Darnold: Over 221.5 passing yards

Had the Seahawks’ defense been able to hold up against Baker Mayfield and Buccaneers a couple weeks ago, it might be Darnold who’s getting the public’s begrudging consideration for early-season MVP. That there’s still skepticism over Darnold’s Seattle success is the only explanation for a line this low, even against the Texans’ vaunted defense.

Only Jordan Love has a better EPA+CPOE composite — a combination metric that measures quarterback’s efficiency, and Darnold’s got the volume as well, going over this total in four of his last five games, with the lone outlier coming against the Saints in a game decided midway through the second quarter when the Seattle offense had barely been on the field. With these numbers, in a closely-lined game, many of the top names at the position would be lined closer to 250 yards.

TE AJ Barner: Over 25.5 receiving yards

While Smith-Njigba is Darnold’s favorite weapon, the second choice might be his burgeoning affection for his primary tight end Barner, who has only allowed two of Darnold’s 19 targets his way fall incomplete. Catching every pass thrown his way since Week 3, Barner has cleared his total in every game other than the blowout of the Saints, like Darnold.

WR Nico Collins: Under 70.5 receiving yards

At 63.3 yards per game for his career, and 83.3 last season, you can see why Collins would be lined this high, but he has one of the biggest home/road split differentials of anyone in the league. Collins averages 72.1 yards per game at home, but just 54.4 on the road. Maybe that has more to do with Stroud, but the production difference is stark.

It doesn’t help Collins’ cause that he’s averaging only 62 yards per game this season, going over this total twice — and just once at home — but it helps ours, in an argument to bet against him.

Anytime touchdown

Woody Marks +260/Dalton Schultz +350

If you’re looking to split your Texans TD budget amongst the receivers outside of Collins, frankly, it’s a mess, with a plethora of options. With only five non-Collins receiving touchdowns, none of them particularly good.

With Christian Kirk ruled out again, Schultz has essentially double the number of targets and receptions of anyone not-named Collins, but the Texans’ tight end hasn’t scored yet this season.

”He’s due” isn’t really a good reason to make a bet, but only five teams have allowed more targets and receptions to opposing tight ends than the Seahawks, so there’s enough of a defensive vulnerability to believe it here.

Meanwhile, Marks has one of the relatively-few receiving touchdowns for the Texans this season, and if Houston plans to evade the strength of Seattle’s defense (versus the run), they may use the speedier rookie running back near the goal line.

AJ Barner +360/Elijah Arroyo +700

Barner’s already got four touchdowns on the season, which seems like an under-the-radar factoid for someone with odds of +360 to score.

The Seahawks’ other tight end Arroyo has had a couple looks in the end zone that have gone awry, but it’s only a matter of time before the big Miami product boxes someone out for a score.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.