Week 13 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Good time to start up popular pickup Devin Neal
Week 12 was a sleeper washout week. Andrei Iosivas and Devin Singletary were marginally helpful, but the rest of the sheet was much worse than that. We’ll shrug it off. Some slates are like that. But let's also be transparent that Week 13 is not designed to be a sleeper week. All 32 teams are in play, so hopefully you are playing the hits, rolling out a bunch of no-doubt starters.
Of course, you might need help in a deeper league and we always want to be stockpiling depth, but see this slate for what it is — top-heavy.
TE Colston Loveland at Eagles (44%)
I know, he really doesn’t fit the sleeper suit, but with Loveland still tagged under 50%, we need to sound the alarm. He’s the TE4 over the last four weeks, gamers! Make sure he’s not floating on your wire. The Eagles have erased tight ends all year, so perhaps you add Loveland and don’t start him here. But there’s a good chance he’ll work his way into your December plans.
QB Cam Ward vs. Jaguars (8%)
Ward has run much more aggressively since the bye week (9-70-1 over two games) and he’s showing chemistry with fellow rookie (and fellow sleeper) Chimere Dike. Mix it together and Ward has given us QB18 and QB4 games the past two weeks, putting him on the streamer radar. The Jaguars' pass defense has allowed the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks.
RB Devin Neal at Dolphins (42%)
His roster tag is almost all from this week, with attentive managers adding Neal on the chance that Alvin Kamara (knee) could miss time. Neal collected 12 touches and five receptions last week in the loss to Atlanta, and Miami’s front seven has been gettable most of the year.
TE Brenton Strange art Titans (22%)
I didn’t expect Strange to pop right away after a five-game absence, but he posted a snappy 5-93-0 line right out of the box. The Titans have been solid with seam coverage, but Strange is particularly interesting on an offense that hasn’t had the most consistent WR play.
WR John Metchie III vs. Falcons (8%)
New York’s passing game has a better chance at survival under Tyrod Taylor, and Metchie has a solid 9-110-2 line the last two weeks. Remember, Metchie was a star at Alabama and a second-round draft pick; there’s pedigree here.
WR Greg Dortch at Buccaneers (10%)
This recommendation is tied to Marvin Harrison Jr’s status — if Harrison returns, scrap Dortch from your plans. In the meantime, accept that Dortch has been a solid third pitch for Arizona's passing game the last two weeks, posting 12-119-2 stats over 15 targets. The Arizona rushing game is a mess, so this passing game is a good bet for 40-plus attempts. Volume for the win.
Matt LaFleur: Lions' defense makes it difficult to double Aidan Hutchinson
Packers coach Matt LaFleur sounds ready to count on his offensive tackles to block Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson one-on-one.
LaFleur said the Lions' defense attacks offenses in ways that make it difficult to devote two blockers to Hutchinson.
"They do a good job of putting him in positions where they make it hard to double him situationally," LaFleur said. "Different front structures, different pressures they can run. It's a very aggressive style of defense. We know they're going to play man, they're going to bring pressure, they have quick add-ons, so when they do that it makes it a little more difficult to double team somebody."
LaFleur said using a tight end or running back to help out on Hutchinson is hard to do when the Packers want Jordan Love to have as many receivers available to him as possible.
"If you're going to double somebody you've got one less eligible," LaFleur said. "Depending on what coverages they're playing, that can be a real problem. If they're playing some spot drop zone and you're only getting four out, it's less people to cover."
Last week Giants offensive lineman Jermaine Eluemunor said he beat Hutchinson one-on-one all day — except for the last play of the game, when Hutchinson clinched the Lions’ win with a sack. The Packers would love to see one-on-one success against Hutchinson on every single play, but that's a tall order.
Week 13 NFL picks against-the-spread, predictions for every game: Packers-Lions leads a strong Thanksgiving
The Detroit Lions were a machine last season. They went 15-2. We've seen that level from them this season too, but it hasn't stuck.
The Lions have switched between looking like a Super Bowl contender and a team that could miss the playoffs. They needed a nearly miraculous field goal to send last week's game against the New York Giants — a 2-10 team down to their third quarterback this season — to overtime. They won that game but the Lions have had too many games this season in which they've played far below their talent level.
One of those games happened in Week 1. The Lions were demolished by the Green Bay Packers. They lost 27-13, and the score only looked that good because Detroit got a touchdown in garbage time. Green Bay thoroughly outplayed them. Like the Lions, the Packers have had trouble consistently playing at that level since.
While the 8-3 Chicago Bears are holding first place for the moment, they'll need some quality wins to maintain that spot as the schedule gets tougher. Packers at Lions will, at very least, clarify which team has the best shot to battle the Bears for the division title.
It also feels like the pivot point for the Lions. If they're truly a team capable of a playoff run, they'll handle the Packers at home, getting revenge and grabbing an inside track on the NFC North title. A loss wouldn't eliminate them from the division race, but it would make Detroit a long shot. The spread is Lions -2.5 from BetMGM, and Detroit is the pick. It's hard to give up on them as a potential Super Bowl team. But it's time for them to prove it.
Aidan Hutchinson of the Detroit Lions hits Packers quarterback Jordan Love in a Week 1 meeting between the teams. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Patrick McDermott via Getty Images
Here are the rest of the picks for Week 13 in the NFL, with odds from BetMGM:
Chiefs (-3) over Cowboys
Are the Cowboys playoff contenders after a win over the Eagles? Probably not yet. DVOA gives Dallas a 7.3% chance to make the playoffs. But a win over the Chiefs would significantly change those odds. Dallas definitely can't afford to fall to 5-6-1 this late in the season in a tough NFC. Dallas has to contend with a Kansas City team that should already be in playoff mode, because a loss here would be damaging for the Chiefs too. We'll be skeptical about the Cowboys for one more week.
Bengals (+7) over Ravens
A team's record doesn't always tell the whole story. Baltimore is 5-0 in its last five games. But if you've watched the Ravens lately you know they haven't been that dominant. They caught an easy stretch of their schedule and have let some bad teams hang around way too long. Lamar Jackson hasn't looked anywhere near his normal self since he came back from a hamstring injury. They'll face a Bengals team that will be excited to get Joe Burrow back to the lineup and perhaps play the role of spoiler down the stretch. Cincinnati can keep it close.
Eagles (-7) over Bears
If the Bears are worthy of their 8-3 record, then they should cover this spread easily. It's OK to be cautious, considering the Bears have very few decent wins and a -3 point differential. The Eagles will be angry after a bad loss, though it's worth wondering if their offense is capable of taking out their frustration on anyone.
Browns (+5) over 49ers
The 49ers defense is weird. They'll give up a ton of yards for a few games, then pop up with a strong performance like Monday night against the Panthers, or when they shut down the Falcons in Week 7. The Browns defense is legit, and while Shedeur Sanders hasn't figured out the NFL just because he played well against the Raiders, the team seems energized by him. This is a tough spot for the 49ers, especially if the weather is bad.
Jaguars (-6.5) over Titans
The Titans have covered the spread three games in a row, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves. They were down 23-3 to the Seahawks before Seattle let the Titans get in the backdoor during garbage time. The Jaguars have renewed hope for an AFC South title and should take care of business, even if it's always a bit shaky with Trevor Lawrence.
Texans (+4.5) over Colts
The Colts deserve to be favored and by more than a field goal. This still seems like a great spot for the Texans, who have won three in a row, are coming off extra rest and could get C.J. Stroud back. The Colts have looked a little shaky lately. The Texans defense will keep them in this game, and Houston winning straight up is possible too.
Dolphins (-6) over Saints
I wouldn't have guessed a few weeks ago that I'd take Miami laying six points to anyone, but here we are. The Dolphins are off a bye and the Saints looked bad last Sunday against Atlanta. It's hard to take the Dolphins as such a big favorite, but it's even harder to know what we'll get from the Saints.
Falcons (-2.5) over Jets
Atlanta probably isn't turning around its season with Kirk Cousins, but the Falcons are better than the Jets. New York changed quarterbacks due to Justin Fields' struggles, and Tyrod Taylor wasn't much better. There aren't many more cards for the Jets to play this season.
Buccaneers (-3) over Cardinals
Baker Mayfield's status is up in the air, and the line indicates that oddsmakers don't believe he'll play. The Buccaneers with a healthy Mayfield should be way more than a field-goal favorite at home against an Arizona team that has lost eight of nine. Even without Mayfield, the Cardinals are hard to pick against anyone.
Panthers (+10.5) over Rams
Last week, the three biggest underdogs on the board covered. No matter how lopsided a matchup looks, it's hard to cover a double-digit spread in the NFL, especially on the road. The Panthers looked awful in Week 12 and the Rams looked like the best team in football. Still, it's a double-digit home NFL underdog. Though there are some ugly underdogs this week who are a lot tougher to pick, such as ...
Seahawks (-11.5) over Vikings
On one hand, the Vikings offense can't get much worse with Max Brosmer starting for J.J. McCarthy. And, as just stated, double-digit NFL underdogs are typically good picks. But this is a really tough spot for Brosmer, an undrafted rookie who has eight passing attempts. Seattle has one of the best, most complicated defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks also have a real home-field advantage. The Vikings will rally around Brosmer, but that might not be enough.
Steelers (+4) over Bills
This is not the Bills team we expected. Josh Allen is still great and the Bills don't have much else to lean on. Last week's loss to the Texans was ugly. The Steelers aren't great but the Bills are vulnerable.
Chargers (-10) over Raiders
Another double-digit underdog that is just too hard to stomach. The Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL. Firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was justified based on the offense's results, but it does create more upheaval for a team that doesn't need any other adversity. The Chargers also have an extra week of rest after the bye. This might get ugly.
Broncos (-6.5) over Commanders
If the Commanders are going to have a good performance, it might come on a Sunday night like this one. But it's a fantastic Broncos team with a stellar defense that had a bye week to rest up. The only question is whether the Broncos offense can score enough to cover.
Giants (+7.5) over Patriots
The Patriots are a better team, but they took on some offensive line injuries last week. That's not good right before they face the Giants' pass rush. The Giants are 2-10 but surprisingly competitive. They're 7-5 against the spread. It should be a decent Monday night game, even though it's a 10-2 team hosting a 2-10 team.