Underdogs had a pretty nice Week 12.
Through Sunday's games, underdogs went 9-4 against the spread. The Houston Texans set the tone by winning straight up as a 6-point underdog on Thursday night to start the week. Even though nine underdogs covered, only four won straight up.
Here are the betting storylines for Week 13 in the NFL, with all odds from BetMGM:
Matthew Stafford takes a big MVP lead
Stafford is in his 17th season. He has never received a first-place vote for NFL MVP. Surprisingly enough, he has only been named to the Pro Bowl twice. And now he's a pretty clear favorite, at age 37, to win his first MVP.
Stafford is on a historic tear, with 25 touchdowns and no interceptions since Week 3. He leads the NFL with 30 touchdown passes. The Rams have the best record in the NFC, and being the quarterback on a No. 1 seed has been the winning formula for MVP voters for many years.
Oddsmakers had a big shift to Stafford being a heavy favorite over Drake Maye. Stafford is -235 to win MVP. Maye is behind him at +200 and nobody else is shorter than 18-to-1. It's Stafford's award to lose. He would join Y.A Tittle (1963) and Rich Gannon (2002) as the oldest first-time winners of the award.
Chiefs only road Thanksgiving favorite
The oddsmakers like our chances of getting at least two competitive games on Thanksgiving.
The first game is the best matchup and the point spread reflects that. The Detroit Lions are 2.5-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay blasted Detroit 27-13 in Week 1, and the game wasn't that close.
The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by more than a field goal on the road in the second game, even though the Dallas Cowboys are coming off a big comeback win over the Eagles. The Chiefs are -3.5 at Dallas.
Joe Burrow's return to the lineup didn't sway oddsmakers too much. The Cincinnati Bengals are still 7-point underdogs at the Baltimore Ravens, who have been winning lately but have had trouble blowing out inferior opponents.
Favorites have been pretty good on Thanksgiving through the past couple decades. According to Action Network, favorites are 51-9 straight up and 40-20 against the spread on Thanksgiving since 2004. It's even better for road favorites like the Chiefs, who are 25-1 straight up and 20-6 against the spread on Thanksgiving since 2004 according to Action Network.
Eagles big favorites on Black Friday
The Philadelphia Eagles offense is struggling, and they're coming off a tough loss to the Cowboys. The Chicago Bears are 8-3, so Bears at Eagles on Black Friday should be a pretty small spread, right? Not really.
The Eagles are a full touchdown favorite over the Bears. That shouldn't surprise astute bettors, who know the Bears have beaten only one team with a record above .500 (that was a three-point home win over the Steelers on Sunday), have won six one-score games and a point differential this season of -3. If you believe in the Bears, you're catching a lot of points on Black Friday.
Even bad underdogs can cover
The Seahawks were the best team against the spread in the NFL before Week 12. They were 8-2 vs. the number. On Sunday, they faced the Tennessee Titans, who are the only one-win team in the NFL.
Of course, the Titans covered. It wasn't easy, as Tennessee fell behind 23-3 but rallied in garbage time to lose 30-24 and cover the 13-point spread. It's a reminder of a few things. Big NFL underdogs are often really bad teams, but they can cover huge spreads. The two other double-digit underdogs of Week 12 covered too (Giants +14 over Lions and Jets +14 over Ravens). Also, ATS records aren't necessarily predictive; oddsmakers adjust and most teams will regress closer to .500 against the spread before the season ends.
Chiefs take over as AFC favorites
And now for our weekly look at the disconnect between the Chiefs' record and how they stack up in the futures market. The Chiefs improved to 6-5 with a win over the Colts and despite still being far from a lock to make the playoffs, they're third in the Super Bowl odds at +900. Only the Rams and Eagles have shorter odds.
This will really drive Chiefs haters nuts: BetMGM now has the Chiefs as the favorite to win the AFC at +475. The Colts are right behind at +500. The Chiefs are +475 to win the AFC West, far behind the Broncos at -300, and have the exact same odds to win the entire AFC. It might be a while before you see that happen again.
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