On Tuesday, hearing officer Jordy Nelson will decide whether to confirm or reverse the one-game suspension without pay that the league imposed on Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase for spitting on Steelers safety Jalen Ramsey. Beyond Chase having the ability to play, he also could lose the ability to get paid.

Based on his 2025 salary of $8.07 million, a lost game check would cost him $448,333 in earnings.

That's a lot more than Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter lost through his simulated suspension. The early Week 1 ejection was treated as the suspension, and he was fined the amount of a game check. Since he's still playing under a rookie deal, the fine was only $57,000.

So what will Chase argue at the hearing? He'll need to abandon the "I didn't spit on nobody" claim he made after the game. The video shows he did it. (And his coach essentially admitted it.)

Here's the best argument against a suspension. The NFL's longstanding precedent has been to fine, not to suspend, a player for spitting. And despite the final outcome of the Carter punishment, he was not suspended. He was ejected and fined.

Carter didn't appeal the decision, so the effort to simulate a suspension wasn't challenged on appeal. This will be the first time a hearing officer has been faced with whether a first-offense for spitting justifies a suspension and, for Chase, a $448,000 bill.

The good news for Chase is that his contract, a copy of which PFT has reviewed, requires a minimum suspension of four games before his remaining guarantees can be voided. And Chase, beyond the balance of the 2025 season, has $55.83 million in future guarantees.

The bad news is that the NFL has made it clear that it's not screwing around when it comes to spitting on opponents. The league will aggressively push its position. And Nelson is the one who will have to make a decision, presumably at some point today.