Favorites did pretty well in the standalone games in Week 11.
The Patriots won by 13 over the Jets, which was good news for anyone who bet the Patriots before the line moved to New England -13 before kickoff. The Dolphins squeezed out a 16-13 overtime win over the Commanders in Spain to cover as 2.5-point favorites. The Eagles got by the Lions on Sunday night to win and cover as 2.5-point favorites, and the Cowboys had no trouble covering a 3.5-point spread over the Raiders on Monday night. Favorites typically get a lot of action in island games, and those bettors had to be happy with the results.
Here are the top five betting storylines heading into Week 12 of the NFL season, with all odds from BetMGM:
Chiefs still among Super Bowl favorites
The Chiefs are far from a lock to make the playoffs. They're a little better than 50% to make the playoffs according to some projections. You'd never know that from looking at the Super Bowl odds.
The Chiefs are higher up in the odds than you might expect. They're tied for the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +850. Only the Eagles and Rams have better odds. The Bills are tied with the Chiefs at +850 and everyone else is behind them including the Broncos and Patriots, a pair of 9-2 teams.
The Chiefs still being tied for the third-best Super Bowl odds doesn't necessarily mean oddsmakers believe they're the third-best team. Sportsbooks don't want to inflate the Chiefs' odds and have a big liability on bettors taking a shot on Patrick Mahomes and his team getting it together and making a title run in the postseason. It's still a bit odd to see the 5-5 Chiefs among the Super Bowl favorites.
Chiefs favored over 8-2 Colts
The respect for the Chiefs is reflected in more than just the Super Bowl odds. They are a full field goal favorite over an 8-2 Colts team coming off a bye.
The Chiefs need to start collecting wins to make the playoffs, and that urgency is a reason the Chiefs are -3 against a rested Colts team. There's also a little bit of lingering skepticism about the Colts, which plays into the line. But for a massively important AFC game, one of the teams with the best record in the conference is getting a field goal on the betting line.
Seahawks lose, but are atop ATS standings
The Seahawks lost against the Rams on Sunday, but bettors appreciated their effort. The Seahawks were 3.5-point favorites and threaded the needle of losing straight up while still covering the spread in a 21-19 outcome.
That has been routine for the Seahawks. They have the best record against the spread in the NFL this season at 8-2 according to Action Network's standings. Every other team has at least three losses against the spread this season. The Seahawks' hot ATS start will be tested this week. They're a large 13-point road favorite at the Titans, one of the biggest spreads on the board.
Saints are favored
The Saints are in a weird spot this week. They're favored to win.
New Orleans is 2-8 but get a vulnerable Falcons team this week. The Falcons have to turn to Kirk Cousins due to Michael Penix Jr.'s knee injury and have lost five in a row. The Saints are coming off a bye, and beat the Panthers in their last game before the bye. As a result, the Saints are a small 1.5-point favorite. It's only the second time the Saints have been favored this season. In Week 5 they were a 2.5-point favorite over the Giants, and won 26-14 to cover the spread.
Ja'Marr Chase suspended, Bengals line moves
How much is Ja'Marr Chase worth to the betting line? We may have gotten a partial answer on Monday.
On Monday morning, the Bengals were 6-point underdogs for a home matchup against the Patriots this week. That had moved up from the early line of Patriots -5.5, perhaps partially in anticipation of Chase being suspended for spitting on Jalen Ramsey in Sunday's loss. By Monday evening, the Patriots were up to 7.5-point favorites after news came down that Chase had been suspended for one game.
There are other factors involved in the Bengals' line moving two points since the weekend, like Cincinnati looking terrible in a Week 11 loss to the Steelers. But we can see that Chase is one of the few non-quarterbacks in the NFL who can move the spread more than a point.
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