In August, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams probably didn't think they'd have an MVP candidate this season. 

The Rams were worried about Matthew Stafford's back for most of the month. Seattle obviously liked Sam Darnold, considering they traded Geno Smith to make room for Darnold, but there had to be questions about whether he could replicate what he did last season with the Minnesota Vikings. 

Not only are Stafford and Darnold each in the top six of the NFL MVP odds heading into Week 11, but their teams are Super Bowl contenders. 

The Seahawks and Rams are both 7-2 and among the best teams in the NFL. They're similar teams, with quarterbacks on a hot streak, star receivers (Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua) having fantastic seasons and defenses that rank among the best in the NFL. In DVOA this week, Seattle held the No. 1 spot and the Rams were No. 2. This is a fantastic showdown between two elite teams. 

It's not a big surprise that the line is Rams -3 at BetMGM for a tight matchup. Anything less for the Rams and they'd get a lot of betting action, and if the spread was over a field goal the Seahawks would get most of the bets. It's a tough game to pick because both teams are elite, but Seahawks +3 is the pick. They are capable of the upset, even on the road, and the three points is nice to have in a great matchup. The good news is these two teams meet again in Week 16.  

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Here are the picks for the Week 11 NFL games, with all odds from BetMGM: 

Jets (+13) over Patriots

There are some great matchups in Week 11. This is not one of them. It's not fun to take the Jets, but it's a lot of points. The quicker we get through this Thursday night game, the better. 

Dolphins (-2.5) over Commanders

Well, this isn't one of the good matchups either. What a treat for the good people of Madrid, Spain! It's hard to be playing out the string by mid-November but that's the position both of these teams are in. Miami has at least shown some signs of life lately, unlike the Commanders. 

Texans (-6.5) over Titans

The Titans have lost eight games. All of them have been by seven or more points. The absolute fluke of a win completely preempted conversations like "Are the 2025 Titans the worst team in NFL history?" Just remember, there's no bigger difference in sports than between the winless NFL teams through history and the one-loss teams. Nobody remembers the one-loss teams. The Texans aren't great, but it has to be 50/50 that they shut out the Titans, which is pretty remarkable. 

Vikings (-3) over Bears

A team that has won six of seven is a full field goal underdog against a 4-5 team. That seems fishy, but the Bears are this year's team that everyone knows is getting very lucky to keep winning. They're 25th in DVOA. They have a negative yards per play differential, via OddsShark. They have a negative point differential. At some point regression is hitting the Bears. 

Bengals (+5.5) over Steelers

It's easy to understand why the Bengals are getting so many points. Their defense is miserable. Joe Flacco is on a hot streak but he's probably going to have a downturn, and he's dealing with a shoulder injury. But still, do you trust the Steelers laying 5.5 points? If you watched Sunday night's game against the Chargers, the answer has to be no. 

Panthers (+3.5) over Falcons

The Panthers aren't good. They let us know that last week with a home loss to the Saints. But it's also tough to back a Falcons team coming straight from Berlin and off them blowing a winnable game to the Colts. Maybe Carolina will be refocused after a horrendous loss. 

Buccaneers (+5.5) over Bills

The Bills are confounding. They should be better than a team that has been blasted by the Falcons and Dolphins already. The Buccaneers haven't been perfect either. The Bills might rebound from the Dolphins loss and blow out Tampa Bay, but it seems like the line is a bit high.

Giants (+7) over Packers

Teams often experience a bump in their first game after firing their coach. Teams often rally around a backup quarterback for one game. The Giants get both. Brian Daboll is gone, and Jameis Winston gets a start. If you've ever backed Winston, you know what to expect. There will be some remarkable plays downfield, and some remarkable mistakes too. Buckle in. The Packers might be looking to take out their frustration after two straight losses, but Green Bay might not be the kind of team that can impose its will on anyone. 

Chargers (-3) over Jaguars

It's always tricky for a West Coast team playing an early game on the East Coast. But the Jaguars haven't been good since that win over the Chiefs. They're 1-3 since then and the only win came in overtime against the Raiders because a 2-point conversion pass was knocked down at the line. The Chargers have offensive line issues, but their defense has been excellent lately. Do you trust Trevor Lawrence to beat a hot defense? You shouldn't. 

49ers (-2.5) over Cardinals

This is a strange line. The 49ers' defense isn't good after some major injuries, but they still are a 6-4 team. The Cardinals have lost six of seven, just got blasted by the Seahawks and this week will be without Marvin Harrison Jr., who had appendicitis. This is exactly when a team that should never be getting less than a field goal springs an upset, because that's what happens in the NFL, but we'll fall for the bait anyway. 

Ravens (-7.5) over Browns

The Browns should be the type of team that covers more often than you'd think, with their upper echelon defense and reputation as a terrible team. Yet, they're 3-6 against the spread. The Ravens are getting hot, and they've already beat the Browns 41-17 back in Week 2. 

Broncos (+4) over Chiefs

The Broncos aren't bad. They might be bad on offense, but the defense is among the two or three best in the NFL. Andy Reid is great off of a bye, but Sean Payton has had a few extra days too. And don't forget that Denver outplayed Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium last season but got a last-second field goal blocked because the 2024 Chiefs caught every single break in close games. Maybe the Chiefs win in a monumental AFC West showdown, but it should be close either way. 

Eagles (-2.5) over Lions

Another great matchup. And it might be the Lions' last call to make a charge for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Eagles are very good but it's hard to deny the offense still hasn't taken off. They're 7-2 regardless. We overreact to everything negative surrounding the Eagles, but this still might be the best team in football and it's hard to go against them laying less than a field goal at home. 

Cowboys (-3.5) over Raiders

A good week of matchups is bookended by two horrible prime-time games. Let's be very clear: The Cowboys aren't good. But they are better than the Raiders, who are 1-7 since Week 1 with the only win coming against the Titans. We deserve better than this for a Monday night game. 

Last week: 6-8

Season to date: 81-68-2