Week 10 of the NFL season began with a less than memorable Thursday night game, as the Denver Broncos eked out a 10-7 win as 8.5-point home favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping team of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng, Michael Fiddle and Matt Jacob combine to give their best bets for Week 10 of the NFL season. This article will be updated throughout the weekend.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change.

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 48.5)

Feng: Daniel Jones threw three interceptions last week against the Steelers. Even worse, the Pittsburgh defense had another nine passes defended by getting a hand on the football or jarring it loose with a hit. Let’s give Jones a little slack since he threw the ball 49 times, but not too much. 

My model at The Power Rank uses both interceptions and passes defended to predict future interceptions, and it gives a 54.9% chance that Jones throws a pick against Atlanta compared to the 51.2% break-even probability of the market. The model has liked Jones to throw a pick all season and still shows value despite his performance last week.

Bet: Daniel Jones over 0.5 INTs (-105)

Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 50.5) at Miami Dolphins

Jacob: The Dolphins and Bills engaged in a 31-21 shootout on a Thursday night in Buffalo in Week 3, with the game barely ticking over the 50.5-point closing total.

Since then, the Bills have played three games that touched or got close to 50 points — 31-19 vs. New Orleans; 40-9 at Carolina; 28-21 vs. Kansas City — and two that fell well short of 50 points (23-20 vs. New England and 24-14 vs. Atlanta).

Meanwhile, since a five-game “over” streak in which they and their opponents combined for 60, 52, 48, 51 and 63 points, the Dolphins have played three games that have averaged 38.3 total points.

The highest-scoring of the bunch: a 34-10 win at Atlanta.

Then there’s this noteworthy trend: While the over has hit in each of the last four Bills-Dolphins meetings in Buffalo and 10 of the last 11 — with nine reaching or exceeding 50 points — the under has cashed in each of the last four battles in Miami.

Final scores: 35-0, 21-19, 21-14 and 31-10.

Bet: Bills-Dolphins under 50 points (-110)

Cleveland Browns (-2, 38) at New York Jets

Craig: Should the Browns be a favorite against anyone on the road? Given the low total, this is an ugly game which fits the key fundamentals of a Wong teaser, so I’ll look to add the Jets into some teaser positions.

Bet: Six-point teaser (Jets +8 and Eagles +8.5)

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 48)

Feng: To my surprise, Drake Maye has been fantastic this season, as the second-year QB ranks fourth among active starters in my passing success rate adjusted for opposing defense. He’s doing this with targets like an old Stefon Diggs and TE Hunter Henry, so who am I to doubt Maye if WR Kayshon Boutte can’t play this week. 

However, the New England pass defense has been horrible, as it ranks 28th in those same adjusted passing success rate numbers. My model has Tampa Bay by 4.8 points, and we just have to hope Baker Mayfield plays like he did against Seattle and San Francisco, and not like he did against Detroit.

Bet: Bucs -2.5

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 49.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Jacob: The Rams currently resemble a runaway freight train, not only winning and covering three straight games but doing so by the combined score of 86-20. Included in those games are a 17-3 victory at Baltimore and a 35-7 beatdown of the Jaguars in London.

So it’s understandable that Los Angeles is favored at San Francisco on Sunday. That is, until you realize the 49ers were the last team to beat the Rams. In fact, they did so in Southern California. As an 8.5-point underdog. Despite missing a boatload of starters.

Yep, with a bunch of backups leading the way, San Francisco stunned the Rams 26-23 in overtime in Week 5.

It marked the 10th time in the last 14 meetings between these NFC West rivals that the underdog won outright. And the 13th time in those 14 meetings that the underdog covered the point spread.

What about the Niners’ current form? Well, the word inconsistent comes to mind. Since starting out 3-0, they’ve alternated losses and victories in the last six weeks, most recently dusting the Giants 34-24 in New York.

Still, San Francisco (6-3) is nipping at the heels of the Rams (6-2) in the division standings. And even though L.A. will be out for revenge, I see this as a tightly contested three-point game.

Bet: 49ers +4.5

Fiddle: McVay vs. Shanahan has all the makings for another NFC West division classic, but I am specifially looking to back George Kittle to show that he is back at full health. 

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Kittle will play his fourth game back for the 49ers from injured reserve and now be nine weeks removed from a hamstring injury. He is undervalued in the market because of the injury and being less efficient immediately upon his return. However, a key stat is Kittle is averaging over 19 air yards per target since his return, meaning he is being used on explosive plays and his output expectations should be about 10 yards higher. 

The 49ers are also still without WRs Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk; and while the reporting on their injury return is promising, they won't return this week. Kittle will have to be a factor in a potentially high output game in Rams at 49ers.

Bet: George Kittle over 45.5 receiving yards

Detroit Lions (-8, 49) at Washington Commanders

Jacob: Back in Week 5, the Commanders went out to Los Angeles and completely shut down Justin Herbert, holding the Chargers’ quarterback to 166 passing yards.

Turns out, that was a massive outlier performance by the secondary. Because here are the yardage totals produced by the other seven quarterbacks who have faced Washington since Week 2:

• 292 (Jordan Love)

• 289 (Geno Smith)

• 313 (Michael Penix Jr.)

• 252 (Caleb Williams)

• 264 (Dak Prescott)

• 299 (Patrick Mahomes)

• 330 (Sam Darnold)

Now the Commanders have to contend with a ticked-off Jared Goff, whose 284 yards and two TDs last week weren’t enough to lift the heavily favored Lions past Minnesota.

It was just the third time this season that Goff threw for more than 241 yards. However, the other two instances were against Chicago (334) and Cincinnati (258). The Bears and Bengals respectively rank 31st and 25th against the pass; Minnesota is seventh.

Washington? It gives up 253.6 yards per game, fourth-most in the league — barely better than the Cowboys.

Yes, there’s a chance for a shower or two in the nation’s capital Sunday afternoon. But it won’t be enough to keep Goff from shredding a beleaguered secondary.

Bet: Jared Goff over 257.5 passing yards (-115)

Fiddle: Washington's defense has been a run funnel this season. The Commanders have given up a rushing touchdown in seven of their nine games, and now get the smashmouth Detroit Lions at Ford Field while being an 8-point underdog. I think the Lions are going to have plenty of opportunities both on the ground and near the goal line, and thus I am backing David Montgomery to get in the end zone. 

Montgomery controls 70% of the work inside the 5-yard line for the Lions, and that number jumps to higher to 75% inside the 3-yard line. The best line value here is actually not one, but two touchdowns scored for Montgomery. On these long-shot wagers, I don’t recommend playing a full unit, play a quarter unit or half a unit, but the 12-1 upside is immense and legitimately strong value compared to the market. I also think Montgomery’s over 11.5 rush attempts (-110) is a solid value spot as well.

Bet: David Montgomery 2+ Touchdowns (+1200), Montgomery over 11.5 rush attempts

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 45)

Jacob: After tossing three interceptions in 17 starts in 2024, Chargers QB Justin Herbert already has seen eight errant passes land in the arms of an opponent in just nine games in 2025.

Only Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa (11 INTs each) have been more generous.

Herbert’s interception totals since pitching two clean games to begin the season: 1, 2, 1, 0, 2, 1 and 1. Yes, he’s been picked off at least once in six of his last seven contests.

This, of course, is what happens when your offensive line is in shambles and you’re constantly under duress. Herbert’s line took another massive hit last week when left tackle Joe Alt went down with a season-ending ankle injury at Tennessee.

Now here comes a ball-hawking Steelers defense that last week reminded Daniel Jones that he’s still Daniel Jones, intercepting the Colts’ reborn quarterback three times.

Bet: Justin Herbert over 0.5 INTs (-105)