Prime’s "Thursday Night Football" broadcast probably looks back on Oct. 6, 2022, with fond memories. The Indianapolis Colts, with quarterback Matt Ryan, traveled to Denver to take on the Broncos with Russell Wilson at the helm.

The game went to overtime and ended in a Colts win with a final score of 12-9. There was not one single touchdown scored in the game, but seven field goals were made. It was one of the most boring NFL games to watch, and it ignited NFL fans to clamor for actually relevant "Thursday Night Football" games — or simply do away with them.

Fast forward three years later, and we have our seventh divisional matchup through 10 weeks of Thursday night games, and this week, the Broncos are back in action.

Denver (7-2) sits atop the AFC West in a loaded division and plays host to the Las Vegas Raiders (2-6). The Broncos are on a six-game winning streak and are 4-0 at home this season. They are 9-point favorites with a total sitting at 42.5. 

The Raiders recently got TE Brock Bowers back and looked a bit better in a loss to Jacksonville last week, but they followed that up by trading WR Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars. Let’s dive into how we should bet this one.

All lines from BetMGM and subject to change.

The spread: Broncos -9

The spread opened at Broncos -9.5, and there has been a slight move toward the Raiders. However, the half point on 9 is pretty insignificant in NFL value. It would be more telling if it had moved to -10.

I rely on market-based power rankings to help with my handicapping, and they are a reflection of previous closing lines around the league to power-rate each team and project values on a neutral field for any matchup. If we use Raiders at Broncos in market ratings and factor in Denver's home-field advantage, the number is Broncos -9.6. I thought the 9.5 was perfectly the right price, yet I respect the betting market showing signals of it moving to 9, and therefore this is a clear no play.

Ideally, market ratings and market movement align, and there is still wiggle room from the number to still derive value. Here we have low value numbers, and market signals and market ratings moving in opposite directions.

Bet: Pass

The total: 42.5

This total has been the consensus line all week, and there is a play to be found here.

Despite the Raiders finding some offensive groove against the Jaguars with the return of Bowers, I am not upgrading their offensive much at all. QB Geno Smith is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions at 11 with Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.

The Raiders face a stout defense, as the Broncos ranked fourth in fewest points allowed per game. The Broncos rely on talent, continuity and system on the defensive side, and while losing CB Patrick Surtain II to a pectoral injury is a clear negative, they did hold the Houston Texans to just 15 points last week without him, further lowering their weekly average points allowed.

On the other side, Broncos QB Bo Nix has not lived up to the Year 2 hype bestowed upon him by head coach Sean Payton. Nix is reliable in that he does not take sacks, which is a principle of a Payton offense, but he ranks 17th in the league in QB rating and is merely average.

I am confident in saying we do not see a 43 show up because it is a key number for NFL totals. Instead, there may be some short-week, divisional-game under money that hits the screens between now and kickoff. I like the under at what feels like, at worst, a flat-to-market position at kickoff.

Bet: Under 42.5 (-110)