Since 2012, it’s the gambling quote that has stalked NFL commissioner Roger Goodell from the moment it came out of his mouth. And with the NBA now dragged into a federal gambling probe and a handful of stunning prosecutions, it has never felt more relevant.

“If gambling is permitted freely on sporting events, normal incidents of the game such as bad snaps, dropped passes, turnovers, penalties and play-calling inevitably will fuel speculation, distrust and accusations of point-shaving or game-fixing. … It creates more gambling, it creates more gamblers and it creates the more likelihood that people are going to perceive it as being an influence.”

Goodell said that in a 2012 deposition, as part of a lawsuit brought by the state of New Jersey that sought to strike down a federal ban on sports wagering. At the time, it was a cornerstone of the NFL’s boilerplate messaging on the possible proliferation of gambling across the United States. And that messaging could be summed up in four words:

Not now. Not ever.

This was the way under former commissioner Pete Rozelle.

This was the way under his successor, Paul Tagliabue.

And this was the way under Goodell — until it wasn’t.

Of course, both the messaging and embrace of gambling has done a 180-degree turn in the NFL, something that Goodell has attributed to changing attitudes and changing legislation in America. Once the U.S. Supreme Court opened the door for the state-by-state proliferation of sports wagering in 2018, the NFL’s opposition to gambling on its games vaporized almost instantly. But Goodell’s words didn’t. Nor did the truths contained within them.

“It creates more gambling, it creates more gamblers and it creates the more likelihood that people are going to perceive it as being an influence.”

Think of that quote when you step anywhere into social media this weekend, which is awash with footage of Miami Heat point guard Terry Rozier making mistakes in past NBA games. Every terrible turnover, every horrible shot, every errant pass, all framed as connective data points that scream affirmation of the FBI’s allegations that Rozier and confederates engaged in illegal sports gambling that impacted at least one NBA game.

This is the kind of thing Goodell was talking about. More gambling, more gamblers, more suspicion. All casting a discomforting cloud over tens of thousands of prop-betting opportunities every season. For the NBA, the allegations against Rozier — that he took himself out of a game to impact prop bets on his statistics — come 18 months after the league banned forward Jontay Porter, who pleaded guilty in July of 2024 to a federal conspiracy crime involving him manipulating his performance in NBA games to impact prop bets on himself.

This is a situation that should send a shiver up the back of every single commissioner in every sports league. Prop bets have become the rocket fuel powering the popularity of sports wagering, and they’ve only grown in scope and complication. The NFL is a prop-bet juggernaut for domestic sportsbooks, thanks to the league rostering more active players who can be wagered upon than any other professional sport in North America.

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That alone, given the allegations against NBA players like Rozier and Porter, should have Goodell white-knuckling it through NFL seasons because it takes only one football player manipulating his own performance to become proof that Goodell’s league is just as touchable to potential rigging as any other. One quarterback pulling himself from a game with a faux injury. One running back fumbling at the goal line. One wide receiver letting a few crucial passes skip off his hands.

I’m not saying this has happened. I’m not even saying it will happen. But without a doubt, there’s nothing but an ocean of opportunities for it to happen. More gambling. More gamblers. More suspicion.

As it stands, the league already has had three players suspended for betting on games involving their own NFL teams: wide receiver Calvin Ridley and defensive backs Isaiah Rodgers and Josh Shaw. All three were suspended indefinitely. Both Ridley and Rodgers have since been reinstated and continued their careers. Shaw — who placed a bet on his team to lose — was reinstated but has not been signed by a team since becoming eligible to play again.

Now looking upon the situation with the NBA and Rozier, the terrifying element of investigative limitations has presented itself to Goodell and other leagues. Because Rozier was probed by the NBA. In 2023, on the heels of “unusual betting activity” surrounding prop bets that had been placed on Rozier, the NBA started digging. Ultimately, the league was unable to find a violation of NBA rules and Rozier was cleared to continue playing. Now the league is facing the embarrassment of Rozier being charged by the FBI in its own gambling investigation.

And that’s what should worry Goodell. That’s what he should take away from this NBA mess. The reality that no matter how confident he is that his league has safeguards in place — no matter how much it Big Brothers its players — you simply can’t see around every corner. And even when you have a line on a potential gambling catastrophe, the tools at your disposal to uncover and prosecute it are limited. Most especially when the persons who are utilizing information or performance manipulation are not inside your league and not governed by your collective bargaining agreement.

The NBA is pointing at this right now. Yes, it did its own investigation into Rozier. But the league did it without subpoena power, without search warrants, without wiretap surveillance, and without the power to threaten potential snitches with a prosecution-or-cooperation decision. Those are walls the NFL can’t get through, either. So it’s in the same boat as the NBA — either you find a way to go around those walls, or you’re subject to the FBI eventually knocking one of them down on top of you.

What the league can do is what it hasn’t up to this point: Dramatically alter gambling repercussions to either eliminate the ability of players (or their confederates) to wager on sports altogether, or make certain forms of betting are a one-strike career killer. Thus far, the NFL has declined to go that route. Most likely because it is reaping hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenue by virtue of sponsorships, advertising, licensing and data contracts. It’s hard to tell NFL players not to gamble on sports when franchise owners are reaping the rewards of advertising that people should bet on sports.

But there is a line the NFL could pursue because the reality is players are getting a slice of that gambling-related revenue, too — by way of the league revenues that pay their salaries and raise the salary cap. The league could take the vantage that an acceptable compromise is already in place with both the club owners and players getting a piece of those gambling revenues. And because of that, Goodell could make the case that a ban of any sports betting by players while they’re still a league employee is justifiable.

It would have to have frightening teeth, of course. Something along the lines of a one-strike policy that ends the career of a player if they’re found to have placed sports wagers — or having someone place wagers on their behalf. I have to believe that would scare players enough to make an impact. Virtually no bet is worth losing an entire pro career. Especially manipulating some prop bet that is likely to get red-flagged as soon as an inordinate amount of money pours in on it.

Will any of this happen? Not before a disaster presents itself. Because the fact remains that Ridley and Rodgers are both in the league right now after betting on NFL games. And there was a time when the league climbed into the bed with the gambling industry that most of us believed that was the uncrossable line: You bet on an NFL game, you’re never going to play again. Yet here we are, with two guys who gambled on NFL games back and playing again. And not just that. They’re thriving. Ridley returned and eventually signed a four-year $92 million deal with the Tennessee Titans. Rodgers returned and eventually signed a two-year $11 million contract with the Minnesota Vikings. And his next deal is already trending toward making him one of the highest-paid cornerbacks in the league when he hits free agency after the 2026 season.

The implicit message of Ridley and Rodgers is that you can bet on NFL games and survive it. Yes, it will be painful enough to cause you to miss a year or more of football. But no, it won’t necessarily kill your career. Given what’s going on with the NBA right now, that feels like a softer message than what should be in place. And there’s no predicting what it could invite. Or more to the point who it could invite.

Looking back, “Not now, not ever” was bound to change for the NFL. Sports gambling became too vital to American entertainment for laws to not change. The potential windfalls to states were too attractive. And to a league and commissioner that had dreams of being a $25 billion a year league in terms of revenues, the money was just too influential.

But the brand still matters. The reputation of having a reasonably “clean” shield is most definitely at stake. The NFL doesn’t want to wake up one day and have NBA-level gambling problems on its hands. There are lessons to be learned here for Goodell and the owners. Potential mistakes that should terrify them. And all they need to do is remember what they used to predict before nationwide gambling became a reality.

“It creates more gambling, it creates more gamblers and it creates the more likelihood that people are going to perceive it as being an influence.”

Goodell was right. We’re there. Now what?