Normally in the introduction for this article, I provide a good information nugget about handicapping. In previous weeks it has been weighting priors versus early-season results, or about bye weeks being part of the schedule which means certain teams now have huge rest advantages. By Week 8, there aren’t as many new lessons to be learned, so this is the rare time I will do a little patting myself on the back.

In the last four weeks for this Tuesday article, the bets have gone 9-1. Based on both process and results, the most advantageous thing a bettor can do in the NFL is bet early to the market and beat the closing number. The NFL market is very efficient, and with key numbers present in both spreads and totals, there are easily quantifiable edges to obtain in having tickets with closing line value.

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Let’s repeat the process and grab these three Week 7 bets that will likely close ahead by kickoff.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Green Bay Packers (-3, 44.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Packers are the second-best team in the NFL according to market based power rankings. Based on these metrics, and standing at a current 4-1-1, they have a 90.1% chance of making the playoffs, and 26% of being the NFC’s top seed (and getting a bye). Besides having a bet for them in this game, I also recommend betting Packers +800 Super Bowl right now at BetMGM. They are behind the Lions in Super Bowl futures, and that shouldn’t be the case.

The Steelers actually jumped from the 14th power ranked team to the 12th this week despite a loss to the Bengals last Thursday night. That is because Tampa Bay’s power rating fell with the Mike Evans injury, and so did the Texans’ rating due to their continuing abysmal offense.

I still don’t buy the Steelers being 1.4 points above a neutral team in the NFL, though. The longer the season continues, the harder it is going to get for this older group. The Steelers have the second-oldest team in the league, per average age of their starters — while the Packers are the league's youngest. There is also more tape that opposing teams have on the quick passing offense the Steelers are reliant on.

I make this game Green Bay -3.6 at Pittsburgh. Given the weight of 3 being the single most important number in sports betting, it becomes an absolute no-brainer to play the Packers side at -3 (-115). No amount of Aaron Rodgers revenge narrative can shake me off wanting to be on the right side of the 3. Grab this now and early in the week, because I suspect we are closing at -3.5 here.

Bet: Packers -3 (-115)

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 43.5)

This is the second Giants-Eagles game in the last three weeks. A Week 6 clash in East Rutherford, New Jersey was the Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo coming-out party as the Giants beat their division rivals 34-17. Now, in Week 8, these teams meet in Philadelphia. I think the quick turnaround for this repeat matchup actually bodes well to expect the exact opposite result. 

We see this style of handicapping in baseball and recently more often in basketball. When two teams play in short order, bet the second game back toward the lines of Game 1. The reason is because the pricing is often a reaction to the results of the last matchup, but in actuality the larger full season of sample size data — which was used to price the first game — is more reliable. It becomes an even more efficient betting approach when the favorite loses the first game, as the Eagles were 7-point favorites on the road in Week 6.

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Now at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, the Eagles remain a 7-point favorite with a total at 43.5. The total for that Week 6 matchup opened at 42.5 and was bet heavily under, closing at 40.5. In NFL totals betting, 43 is a key number, so here I want to play the under.

These are still two teams that rely on the rushing attack despite going against strong defensive lines. Both teams employ a passing game with mostly underneath throws. The Eagles' woes this season have been connecting on deep passes, while the Giants recently lost Malik Nabers to a torn ACL and he was their main factor in spreading the field and providing that spacing. In this game, I suspect heavy run opportunities, long drives, some inefficiencies in the red zone and an under contest.

I also like the Eagles to cover, as there should be a 3-point switch when changing home fields. So we can say either the Week 6 price was wrong, or the Week 8 price is wrong. In that scenario, I choose to think the Week 6 price was correct — because there was a full week of betting information that went into that game. The Week 8 price is more likely to be incorrect because we still have five days until kickoff for the line to be changed.

While that seems hard to justify given a 34-17 Giants win, this is a reminder to prioritize process and not results. Betting information for a week is more important than the results of a 60-minute game when it comes to continuing your handicapping. Last week, before kickoff, we also saw the Eagles take action against Minnesota, and the Broncos take action against the Giants. I expect a similar buy on Eagles and fade on Giants, so grab that now.

Bet: Under 43.5 (-105)

Bet: Eagles -7 (-105)

Both are good to -115

Note: This is the first time I am giving out two bets on the same game. This is not a parlay and I strongly oppose parlaying these. A non-correlated two-leg parlay with -110 lines should pay out +264, and right now I am seeing +260 on this parlay. We can even say the Eagles to win by more than a touchdown should be correlated with the over, because more points means more margin for victory. Yet there is still a correlation tax put on these lines, with them both at -105 to begin with. This is unfair to you as the bettor and carries negative expected value. Play them as straight bets.