The Seattle Seahawks' regime had a plan this offseason. It was bold, featuring complete swaps of some of the most significant faces on offense. Quarterback Geno Smith was traded for a third-round draft pick to the Las Vegas Raiders to rejoin former Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and offensive line coach Scott Huff were fired after their first seasons in those roles in the NFL. Wide receiver DK Metcalf was traded to Pittsburgh, leaving a receiver room with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and not much else.

The Seahawks knew exactly how they wanted, and who they wanted, to fill those roles. Sam Darnold was signed to a three-year contract after a resurgent year in Minnesota that came crashing to a halt behind a battered Vikings offensive line. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was hired to install his traditional Kubiak-Shanahan offense to help lift the floor of one of the league's worst offensive lines and run games, and help give one of the most inconsistent offenses in the NFL some semblance of competence. 

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Cooper Kupp was brought in at wide receiver, which didn’t seem like a real needle mover considering Kupp’s recent injury history and questions about how he would fit with Smith-Njigba and the rest of the offense. Grey Zabel was drafted in the first round from North Dakota State to start somewhere along the league’s worst offensive lines, which had multiple spots declared as open competition in training camp.

Well, we’re a third of the way through the 2025 season, and the bets that the Seahawks made are going so well an online sportsbook would be offering them a lucrative cashout option.

Seahawks' offense is cooking in a way you might not expect

The Seahawks' offense currently leads the NFL in yards per play (6.3), and is fourth in FTN’s DVOA statistic as well as third in explosive play rate. Now, the easy assumption is that a Kubiak-helmed offense would just be running the ball over and over to have this kind of success, with a zone-heavy run game creating huge plays for Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet on the ground. Instead, this Seahawks offense is being led by one of the NFL’s most explosive aerial assaults, with Darnold playing the best football of his career and forming such a strong mind-meld with Smith-Njigba that they could pilot a Jaeger in Pacific Rim.

The Seahawks are currently 27th in yards per rush (3.7) and 24th in rushing success rate (37.7%). The run game has been popping off like wet fireworks to start the year, but Kubiak seldom abandons the run. It’s currently being used as a jab to set up the real driving force of this offense: a downfield attack that rips off chunk plays with ease. 

The Seahawks rank first in net yards per pass attempt (9.2 yards), second in explosive pass rate (19.9%, which means one out of five Darnold passes goes for 16 or more yards), and fourth in dropback success rate. The best NFL offenses attack all areas of the field — not just inside and outside, but also every level of the defense. The Seahawks use their run game to keep the defenders' eyes forward, but the passing game is how they get those defensive backs looking like a baseball pitcher who just gave up a home run.

Sam Darnold is being optimized by a coach who helped kickstart his career

A whopping 41.6% of Sam Darnold’s throws travel 10 or more air yards this year. It’s the highest rate in the NFL (nearly 10% higher than average) and would be the eighth-highest rate since 2019. Meanwhile, 58.8% of his completions go for 10 or more yards, which would be tied for the third-highest rate since 2013 and the highest rate since Jameis Winston in 2017. 

Simply put: Darnold is chucking it downfield and he’s staying efficient when doing so.

This is a phenomenal way to streamline Darnold’s skills. Darnold has always been a talented thrower, but he could start to unravel when asked to continuously make decisions over and over. The Seahawks have simply removed most of their quick-hitting passes from the offense, instead using the run game to attack underneath and the passing game to create air in the offense. Kubiak was Darnold's quarterbacks coach in 2023 in San Francisco, a year that helped Darnold reset his career and also a big reason why Kubiak and the Seahawks signed him this offseason.

There are other underlying stats that indicate how comfortable Darnold is in this offense. He is a good athlete who can use his legs to create plays, but he is scrambling at the lowest rate of his career. His three scrambles have gone for 11.7 yards per pop (all successful plays), but his 1.8% scramble rate ranks 27th among qualifying quarterbacks this year and is less than half of his career rate of 4.3%. Darnold is constantly making quick decisions with the football, and isn’t holding onto the ball and devolving into creation plays like he has in prior seasons. And even with an OL that’s better but still a work in progress, Darnold is taking sacks at the lowest rate of his career (4.2%, again half of his usual career rate). He’s also getting rid of the ball quicker at 2.61 seconds, compared to a career rate of 2.82 seconds, and continuously putting the ball in play while avoiding mistakes that have doomed him in the past. (I’ll be forgiving of the game-ending interception against Tampa Bay because of the pressure.)

Darnold is getting rid of the ball quicker than ever, but he is often doing it down the field and off of play-action. It's an ideal combination in the passing game, especially when the run game can be inconsistent. 

Take a look at these three plays against the Jacksonville Jaguars, all going for big gains and all using classic play-action concepts (with a little bit of formational window dressing): 

(For more detail on these Seahawks play-action concepts, I broke them down on YouTube.)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a revelation

The Seahawks and Darnold are using a steady diet of play-action shots and a whole heaping of Smith-Njigba to accomplish this big-play bonanza. Smith-Njigba is currently at or near the top of the NFL in *gestures at every receiving stat available:* 

• First in yards (696)

• First in yards per route run (a hysterical 4.49; anything over 3 is considered an all-time mark, with Tyreek Hill in 2023 having the highest mark since 2013 at 3.85 yards)

• First in explosive receptions per route (10.3%, which would rank first since at least 2013. League average for qualifying WRs this year is 3.4%)

• Tied with Puka Nacua in target share (36.1% of the Seahawks' targets when he runs a route, third-highest for any WR since 2013)

Once pigeonholed as a slot-only underneath threat, Smith-Njigba has been a revelation this season as a three-level monster. His air yards per target has jumped from 6.12 his rookie year in 2023 to 13 this season. He caught a pass on six different types of route categories in just one game against the Jaguars, including a deep bomb on a post route off play action.

Simply put: Smith-Njigba can do it all as a receiver. Quick-hitters, in-breakers, out-breakers, vs. press, vs. off coverage, vs. man, vs. zone, deep balls, you name it.

And Smith-Njigba is doing his work as an outside wide receiver, too. After aligning in the slot on 74% of his plays in 2024, Smith-Njigba has now aligned there just 17% of the time in 2025, with 80% of his snaps coming on the outside per Next Gen Stats. 

Watch him turn around a Jaguars cornerback from the outside here on an outbreaking route:

Seahawks' other pieces are fitting together into a dangerous team

The Seahawks' other pass catchers are also being utilized to accentuate their strengths and are executing their auxiliary roles perfectly. Kupp is now being used as a de facto tight end, providing a boost on run plays as a blocker and as an underneath option on pass plays, especially third down. Kupp’s 6.41 air yards per target currently rank 83rd out of 88 qualifying WRs, but he ranks 17th in successful targets per route. He’s been the rug that has tied the room together in Seattle.

Other young players are also excelling in their roles as well. Second-year player A.J. Barner is enjoying a mini-breakout right now. Barner is a true “Y” tight end who can align in-line and block, but has also become a productive secondary pass catcher in this offense.

He even had a shot play dialed up for him against the Jaguars when the Seahawks got aggressive while milking the clock.

Fifth-round draft pick Tory Horton has been used as the third receiver and his role is starting to expand. He provides a speed element to this offense with good hands and a little bit of YAC ability, too. Horton’s punt returning has been a nice cherry on top of what he provides for the Seahawks. (Oh, yeah, the Seahawks rank first in special teams DVOA, too.) Fellow rookie Elijah Arroyo is an excellent athlete at tight end and is starting to get more plays called for him, including getting isolated as a receiver at times.

How the Seahawks use their tight ends has been a weapon for them, too. The versatility of Barner, Arroyo and Eric Saubert has allowed them to get to more preferred formation looks, and helped them get to different protections, too. They nearly average half an expected point added (.44) on their plays out of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs), a number I had to double-check because it’s so high considering how much the Seahawks use multiple tight ends.

While the run game still ranks 21st in DVOA and hasn’t quite put together a strong performance for a full game, there have been stretches of it working. And if the passing game can maintain at least a large chunk of this explosiveness, then the run game needs to be only average for this offense to work.

Despite the offensive line's mediocrity, there are still positive takeaways. Zabel looks like a star at left guard and has been an impact player in the run game and as a pass protector. Charles Cross finally looks healthy again and has teamed with Zabel to form one of the league’s better left sides. Jalen Sundell is a good fit at center for the zone-heavy run scheme the Seahawks use but can get overmatched as a pass protector, and right guard Anthony Bradford is the weak link of the unit (14 of the 21 quick pressures the Seahawks have allowed this year have been by Sundell or Bradford). 

The zone run game helps lift the floor, but the play-action concepts and ways the Seahawks move the pocket also help shore up any deficiencies that this line has. Those plays not only streamline Darnold’s decision-making, but they give the Seahawks a fighting chance against any mismatches up front.

In a wide open NFC and NFL, I feel as good about the Seahawks' chances to contend as any other team after six weeks. Their offense has consistently generated explosives and really the biggest question mark I have is how consistent and efficient they can make their run game (which is pretty funny, considering the dogma of this offensive system). Darnold is making quick and smart decisions, the offense adds new layers every week, the auxiliary pieces are all fitting in nicely, and Smith-Njigba is a star.

The defense also ranks top five in every metric, with a line that's formidable rushing the passer and also stout against the run, and one of the best game-planners in the sport in head coach Mike Macdonald calling plays. 

I’m not only buying the Seahawks as NFC West favorites, but I’m buying that they can make a run once the dance starts, too.