Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 5 of the NFL season.
All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last week, Farmer posted a 12-4 (.750) record. Through the first three weeks of the season, he is 44-20 (.688).
Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 4 would have been 9-7 (.563). For the season, his record against the spread is 33-31 (.516).
All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts in the Los Angeles area. The Falcons, Bears, Packers and Steelers are off this week.
49ers (3-1) at Rams (3-1)
Tonight, 5:15 p.m. TV: Amazon Prime, Fox.
Line: Rams by 7. O/U: 46½.
The Rams keep finding ways to win, even when they get outplayed for stretches. The win over undefeated Indianapolis proved something. San Francisco is too banged up, with key injuries on offense and defense, to sustain against a tough divisional opponent.
Pick: Rams 27, 49ers 20
Vikings (2-2) at Browns (1-3)
Sunday, 6:30 a.m. TV: NFL Network.
Line: Vikings by 3½. O/U: 35½.
Hard to know what to make of Carson Wentz, who can be all over the map. This feels like a low-scoring, grind-it-out matchup. Both offenses are sputtering and turnovers likely will decide the outcome. Feels like Minnesota will bounce back after losing to the Steelers.
Pick: Vikings 14, Browns 10
Raiders (1-3) at Colts (3-1)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Colts by 6½. O/U: 47½.
The Colts made a lot of mistakes in their loss to the Rams, but Indianapolis is a solid team. Have to like that Raiders defense but that offense is cover-your-eyes bad. Colts are at home, and they’re more competitive in this one.
Pick: Colts 24, Raiders 20
Giants (1-3) at Saints (0-4)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Saints by 1½. O/U: 41½.
Jaxson Dart was fun to watch against the Chargers, but how long can he last absorbing all of those hits? Cam Skattebo is like a modern-day Larry Csonka with how hard he runs. The Giants can get after the passer and have enough to pick up back-to-back wins.
Pick: Giants 23, Saints 18
Cowboys (1-2-1) at Jets (0-4)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Fox.
Line: Cowboys by 2½. O/U: 47½.
The Cowboys are putting up a lot of points, and the Jets will be hard-pressed to keep pace. Justin Fields has shown flashes, but he’s not consistent enough. After scoring 40 against that Green Bay defense, Dallas should be able to keep lighting up the scoreboard.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Jets 27
Broncos (2-2) at Eagles (4-0)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: CBS.
Line: Eagles by 4½. O/U: 43½.
The Broncos defense should keep Denver in this one, for a while at least. But Philadelphia’s defense is starting to settle in as well, and the Eagles have enough to hold on at home. Should be a close and relatively low-scoring one, though.
Pick: Eagles 27, Broncos 20
Dolphins (1-3) at Panthers (1-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Dolphins by 1½. O/U: 44½.
The Panthers have been blown out in three of their four games and are having a tough time generating offense. Miami hasn’t been perfect, but the Dolphins have more playmakers and should be able to pick one up on the road.
Pick: Dolphins 21, Panthers 17
Texans (1-3) at Ravens (1-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Texans by 1½. O/U: 40½.
The Ravens are so banged up that it’s finally taking a toll. Houston has balance on both sides of the ball and that Texans defense can make life difficult for Lamar Jackson — or whomever the Ravens have at quarterback. Texans are healthier and that makes the difference.
Pick: Texans 20, Ravens 17
Titans (0-4) at Cardinals (2-2)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Cardinals by 8½. O/U: 41½.
Good timing by the Cardinals, catching a Titans team that could be low on morale and is definitely low on scoring. The Cardinals do a good job of defending the run and should be able to make the Titans one-dimensional. That figures to be good enough.
Pick: Cardinals 24, Titans 12
Buccaneers (3-1) at Seahawks (3-1)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Seahawks by 3. O/U: 44½.
Seattle is quietly dangerous, even though there’s nothing quiet about their home field. The offense is improving under Klint Kubiak. Tampa Bay is getting healthier but that’s a long trip, and it feels like Seattle will control the tempo.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Buccaneers 23
Commanders (2-2) at Chargers (3-1)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Fox.
Line: Chargers by 2½. O/U: 48½.
As good as Justin Herbert is, this breakdown of the offensive line is a major problem. The Giants took full advantage when Joe Alt limped out of the game. The return of Jayden Daniels gives the Commanders a boost and that Washington defense is going to get after the quarterback.
Pick: Commanders 24, Chargers 20
Lions (3-1) at Bengals (2-2)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Lions by 10½. O/U: 48½.
The Lions are a top-shelf team and should be able to win this pretty handily. Cincinnati’s defense is going to be chasing, and Jake Browning is going to be hard-pressed to keep pace with Jared Goff and that Detroit offense.
Pick: Lions 34, Bengals 17
Patriots (2-2) at Bills (4-0)
Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: NBC, Peacock.
Line: Bills by 8½. O/U: 50½.
The Bills are playing the best football in the division, and that’s a level above what the Patriots have shown. New England will make some plays, but the Bills will make more. Another big prime-time game for Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen.
Pick: Bills 28, Patriots 17
Chiefs (2-2) at Jaguars (3-1)
Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: ABC, ESPN.
Line: Chiefs by 3. O/U: 46½.
The Jaguars are riding high after a victory over San Francisco and there’s something to be said about that confidence. They match up well against Kansas City, too. The Chiefs are improved with Xavier Worthy back but still look like a work in progress.
Pick: Jaguars 27, Chiefs 23
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
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