With anything new, we try to allow for a grace period. There’s uncertainty in how things will come together. Most of our understanding is just theoretical. In other words, it makes sense on paper, but reality has to fill in the blanks. Anyway, there’s no problem with needing to calibrate to a fresh situation.

However, for fantasy football, Week 4 was the end of that time.

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We’ve gotten a month of film and data on each team. Some of the takeaways align with our offseason assumptions. Others have us questioning our processes. Regardless, the novelty of the new year can’t be a reason to diminish our panic level. Even more concerning, if we’re hoping for a change, the last four weeks are our only clues to see if it’s possible.

The Eagles’ run game is a problem (and not in a good way)

On the one hand, if you look at Saquon Barkley’s workload, you’d be happy with what you see. The reigning OPoY is one of four RBs with over 70.0% of his team’s carries and a target share north of 15.0%. And while Jalen Hurts is always a threat to steal a TD or two from the goal line, Philadelphia’s coaching staff continues to find ways to keep their star RB involved when it matters.

However, the box score tells a different story. Barkley’s yet to cross the century mark as a runner. Actually, he hasn’t topped 100 scrimmage yards in a single game through four weeks. I’ll get to the bigger (heavier?) concern in a bit, but his own play has taken a step back after a historic run in '24.

• Rushing Success Rate (on early downs): 34.3% (2025), 49.3% (2024)

• Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 2.3, 5.1

• Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 8.6%, 20.3%

To be fair, defenses are wise to the Eagles’ style of play. Barkley’s seen a stacked box (eight or more men close to the formation) on early downs at the sixth-highest rate. On those attempts, he’s averaging 2.0 yards per tote. Especially last week, you could see the limitations. But, as I mentioned, the problems extend past Barkley’s ability to run the ball.

• Adj. Yards Before Contact per Att.: 0.71 (2025), 1.04 (2024)

• Run Block Win Rate: 22nd, 9th

Lane Johnson’s health has been a factor, but the rest of the blocking unit has been an issue to start the season. Half of Barkley’s attempts have come with a defender meeting him at or behind the line of scrimmage. He’s had just two explosive runs. And with the upcoming schedule featuring multiple teams allowing below-average outings to opposing RBs, we’re hoping for a shift in scheme and protection to get the Eagles’ rushing attack back on track.

Panic Meter: Moderate to High

The Bolts are losing their Charge

Here’s a true story from my life as an analyst. In a Superflex league, I had to choose between Justin Herbert, Drake Maye and Justin Fields. I locked in Herbert and waffled between Maye and Fields as the weekend approached. Needless to say, my anxiety ratcheted up a notch when I didn’t get any touchdown notifications. When I scrolled through social media to catch some clips, it was easy to see why.

Herbert’s 24-yard scramble was the exact type of play the Chargers needed after a quick three-and-out to start the game. However, the explosive run came at a cost. Star LT Joe Alt suffered a high-ankle sprain on the same play, which will sideline him for a month. And if we were worried about Herbert’s protection coming into the season, another missing lineman should only amplify our concerns.

• Week 1: 36.6% (pressure rate), 56.8% (passing success rate)

• Week 2: 25.0%, 55.2%

• Week 3: 49.1%, 38.5%

• Week 4: 45.5%, 34.9%

Herbert has been under siege on 20 or more dropbacks in two straight games. Seven of them happened within 2.0 seconds of the snap. On the bright side, the Chargers’ QB1 limited the negative outcomes to two sacks. (Note: The video shows Ladd McConkey losing his footing on the turf during the second interception, so I’m ignoring that one.) But the need to protect the franchise will likely (and should) be HC Jim Harbaugh’s prime directive moving forward. And unfortunately for fantasy managers, that might mean a shift in play-calling.

Despite the lack of push up front, rookie RB Omarion Hampton gave the Bolts the spark they needed. His 10.7 (no, not a typo!) adjusted yards after contact per attempt more than made up for his team’s blocking woes. Coupled with Hampton’s propensity for a big play (23.5% explosive run rate), Week 5 might be a return to the Chargers of old as they try to take as much pressure off of Herbert as they can.

Panic Meter: Moderate to High

Josh Allen’s WR1 is…

The "obvious" answer is Khalil Shakir. He scored a touchdown last week. That’s two games in a row. Buffalo’s slot man should have the coveted title. However, there’s likely an asterisk next to it.

Two takeaways from Shakir’s touchdown run against the Saints. First, well done by Shakir to keep his balance en route to the end zone. However, rookie safety Jonas Sanker helped keep the other Saints’ defenders from Shakir after the missed tackle. Simply put, it highlights the play's flukiness. Sure, sixty-three yards and a TD look great in the box score. But when 43 of those yards come on a single play, I’d raise an eyebrow. Plus, his peripherals don’t paint the picture of a top-12 option.

• Route Rate: 71.4%

• Air Yard Share: 3.6%

To be clear, I’m not harping on just Shakir. His volume is a product of the Bills offense. They’re all role players with Josh Allen threading the needle to whoever wins on their route. And if we look across some of the opportunity metrics, you’ll find a different Bills’ pass-catcher leading the way.

Even worse, none of them is Shakir.

• (Most) Targets per Game: Keon Coleman, 5.5

• (Highest) Third/Fourth Down Target Share: Dalton Kincaid, 19.4%

• Air Yard Share: Keon Coleman, 29.0%

• Red-Zone Target Rate: Dalton Kincaid, 20.8%

Week 4 marked the third time any receiving option for Josh Allen surpassed a 20.0% target share. A rate we typically associate with (low-end) WR1s, but just five passes thrown Shakir’s way doesn’t have the same ring to it. In addition, this was a game where five other players earned more air yards. Six have seen two or more targets every contest. While Shakir has the results of a reliable option, his usage and surrounding talent suggest a passing game where we should be hesitant to start any of them.

Panic Level: Moderate

San Francisco Needs to Get Healthy

The 49ers’ injury report looked like a CVS receipt heading into Week 4. But I’ll focus on the offensive skill players.

• Connor Colby (LG) — Groin; Limited all week

• Jauan Jennings (WR) — Ankle, Shoulder; Two DNPs and a limited session on Friday

• Ricky Pearsall (WR) — Knee; One DNO and two limited practices

• Brock Purdy (QB) — Shoulder, Toe; Two limited practices and a full

No big deal. Just the QB, one of his starting linemen and both primary receivers pushing through injuries to make it to Sunday. Let’s also remember they were facing a defensive unit that, entering Week 4, had top-10 marks in passing success rate allowed and defensive EPA per play. And while health certainly played a role in Purdy’s two picks, there’s a luck factor as well.

You can nitpick the ball placement, but the end-zone view should pull some of the blame away from Purdy. It’s not every day Christian McCaffrey triple bobbles (while adjusting to the throw) a pass into a defender’s hands. A similar level of scrutiny would highlight a tipped pass at the line of scrimmage before his second interception. Besides, if you’ve watched Purdy this year or last, you would know the misfires aren’t due to a lack of talent.

• Week 4: -8.3% (completion percentage over expected), -0.03 (EPA per dropback)

• Week 1: 15.3%, 0.34

• 2024: 2.1%, 0.17

The 49ers need some rest. And even though they’ll get a mini-bye after their TNF battle against the Rams, their next five games will feature defenses at or above the league average in pressure rate (at TB, vs ATL, at HOU, at NYG, vs LAR). So, unless you’ve got McCaffrey, each practice report update should have you scanning your bench for other options.

Panic Level: Moderate to High