We had some big hits last week on FLEX Finder (Bhayshul Tuten! Wan'Dale Robinson! Dyami Brown!) and some other results we don't need to talk about that are statistically about on point. When you recommend low-end players you will, statistically speaking, miss most of them. We're just battling to hit .500 or so here.
Once again, my rules:
1) I will not recommend quarterbacks — you're on your own there.
2) I will not recommend any running back who costs more than $5,000, wideout who costs more than $4,500, or tight end that costs more than $4,000 in DraftKings’ DFS Slate— I just figured this was an easy cutoff for what a FLEX really is.
3) I consider any player who garners over 50 yards or scores a victory for the column — anything more you get out of that, well, great for you. Let's set expectations low because we are combing for outliers.
▶ Running Backs
Bhayshul Tuten, JAX — $4,900
He's back, and he's still cheap! Tuten had 18 snaps to Travis Etienne's 47 in Week 2, and after scoring and providing 74 total yards in that game, it's hard to believe that he'll be losing a share of the carries.
I have a lot of respect for the Texans defense and this is not a high-scoring game on paper, but they did quietly allow Tampa Bay to run all over them on Monday night with Michael Jordan (practice-squad NFL version) at guard and Charlie Heck at right tackle. They also let Rachaad White and Bucky Irving combine for eight targets for 51 yards. That's exactly the area I'd expect Tuten to thrive. The only question for me is how much of a share he'll get.
Zach Charbonnet, SEA — $4,800
It does feel icky after a week in which Kenneth Walker handily outproduced someone who finished with 10 yards, yes. But consider the fact that Charbonnet still is seeing the majority of the snaps and that the Seahawks are heavy home favorites against a Saints outfit that seems scrappy but not exactly good. You're probably more touchdown-reliant on this hitting than I'd like to admit, but this is exactly the scenario in which you want to fire up a committee running back.
Tyler Allgeier, ATL — $4,700
Speaking of scenarios in which you want to fire up a committee running back: The Falcons are 5.5-point road favorites against an offense that needed a furious comeback last week to not get blown off the field. Now Robert Hunt and Austin Corbett are gone, taking some of the teeth off of the Carolina running game.
Last week will not be the norm for Allgeier, but given the amount of red zone work he gets and the chances that this will be another blowout, he should have a good chance of getting home in Week 3.
Jeremy McNichols, WAS — $4,400
This is the one I waffle the most about on these picks, but it's mostly because Marcus Mariota just doesn't target running backs that often over the past few years as a backup. We're also relying on extremely small sample sizes to make that point. With Austin Ekeler out for the season, McNichols appears to be the only back in Washington who has a firm grasp of a committee role as the recommended third-down guy. He was already taking some snaps in that role from Ekeler before Ekeler exited against Green Bay.
Hosting the Raiders would appear to be a game that calls more for actual running, but I can't double down on Jacory Croskey-Merritt this week because he's not cheap anymore. McNichols should have enough of a role in the offense to generate something this week and maybe run into a score.
Patrick Daugherty▶ Wide receivers
Josh Downs, IND — $4,500
I think it's tempting to assume that Michael Pittman is the No. 1 receiver for the Colts and that the presence of one Patrick Surtain on Sunday funneled targets to Downs. That's a very fair reading of the situation in my opinion. But with how well this offense is playing right now, I feel obligated to recommend the wideout who actually heavily out-targeted Pittman in 2024 and is also very good. Betting has pushed this line to the Colts by 4.5 and the Titans' defense, especially if T'Vondre Sweat is back, is a pass offense funnel. Downs feels like a good play assuming he actually starts. (He did miss the first practice of the week.)
Troy Franklin, DEN — $4,000
Another under-represented waiver wire darling — as with last week's Harold Fannin Jr. play — Franklin took a major step towards seizing the No. 2 receiver job in Denver with an 8/89/1 line against the Titans in Week 2 while playing a wideout-high 83 percent of the snaps. The Chargers just lost Khalil Mack for a non-trivial amount of weeks and the Broncos were able to score 44 points on them in two games last year. I'm always a little wary to trust a Sean Payton revelation because they can come and go in a hurry and Marvin Mims seems to get an awful lot of high-value gadget targets. But I can't look at what happened last week and not project a big role for Franklin in Week 3.
Tyquan Thornton, KC — $3,900
Some have begun to call Patrick Mahomes a Tyquan Thornton merchant. OK, no, that's just me. But at least one person has said it, and now you read it, and they just let you type anything into these boxes.
I don't really trust that whatever version of Xavier Worthy the Chiefs are able to cobble together in Week 3 after missing just one week with what looked like a pretty serious shoulder injury is going to be fully healthy. Thornton led all Chiefs receivers with 75 percent of the snaps last week, and was the only Chiefs target who looked even close to open for most of the game. Now we get a tasty matchup against a Giants defense that has never been good under Shane Bowen and does not have much in the way of good downfield corners. I like Thornton's chances of running into a touchdown here.
KaVontae Turpin, DAL, $3,900
They can't put the over/under high enough for this game — it has climbed to 50.5 at most sports books after starting at an already-high 47.5. Turpin is probably on the questionable line here, though Jerry Jones sounded optimistic he'd play after suffering a neck injury last week. He scored against the Giants last week and — though he continues to not play a major offensive role — he's impressively shifty and fast when he is fed the rock.
Elic Ayomanor, TEN, — $3,700
Cam Ward's offensive line is falling apart and Ayomanor produced a 4/56/1 line in spite of that thanks to a circus catch. I don't think highly of what Ward has put together through two weeks — I know there were drops — but it's hard to ignore Ayomanor's 76 percent snap share or his 40.1 percent of intended air yards for the Titans. The Colts have a banged up secondary and will carry a number of defenders on the injury report. I think Ward will take three or four sacks along the way, but like him to drag Ayomanor to a WR3-ish line.
Matthew Berry▶ Tight ends
Jake Ferguson, DAL — $4,000
I don't think much of Ferguson when I actually watch him play. I don't think he's very good at creating after the catch, and don't think he's a very good receiving tight end. But he had 12 targets last week, has 18 on the season, and is playing in a game with a 50.5 over/under. These are just facts that we all have to deal with, and perhaps they'll help you this week.
Cade Otton, TB — $3,500
At seven targets in two games, perhaps this is a bit of an ambitious one, but the Bucs are home favorites against a Jets team that allowed Aaron Rodgers to pass over it at will and probably would have allowed Josh Allen the same courtesy had James Cook not simply ran over them. Otton has a near-miss touchdown already this year in Week 1, and with Sauce Gardner likely involved in taking away one of Mike Evans or Emeka Egbuka, I like Tampa's underneath options to be involved this week.
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