Week 13 of the NFL season is here with multiple short-week spots to wager on, which I believe provide some opportunities in the betting market.

There are three Thursday matchups, and one on Black Friday. The holiday slates always highlight marquee matchups with games that feature strong teams going against one another. – and the result is high game totals.

The three highest total games on the entire card for Week 13 are the Thanksgiving matchups. The Packers face the Lions with a total at 49, the Chiefs take on the Cowboys with a total at 52, and the Bengals go to Baltimore to play the Ravens, also with a game total at 52. Not a single other game on the Week 13 card is higher than 47.5. Games on a short week obviously mean less practice and game planning time specific to the matchup. It also means questionable injuries tend to lean towards doubtful rather than probable.

Here are three early Week 13 NFL bets to make right now.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 48.5)

The first early-week bet that I am making is on a player prop at a great price for the Thanksgiving slate. I am targeting Jared Goff … as a runner.

One of my most successful betting angles on NFL props is on quarterback rushing yards, so while this is right in my wheelhouse, I can definitely say Goff has never been one that I’ve bet before. However, in this game against the Packers defense we feature Micah Parsons who has ranks No. 1 most pressures in the NFL. The pressure generated by Parsons may force Goff to be more mobile inside the pocket and only one good scramble outside gets him to cover his prop line.

This is also a divisional matchup where the score is expected to be tight, and the game total is expected to be high, so the Lions may have to stay true to their style and go for it on plenty of fourth downs. These are also situations where Goff may find himself with a quick draw sneak, or escaping pressure and just making something out of nothing.

Most books are pricing this around +120, while BetMGM gives us +150 on Goff over 0.5 rushing yards, so I am taking it and will always be one play away from a player prop cash.

Bet: Jared Goff over 0.5 rushing yards (+155 BetMGM)

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 52) at Dallas Cowboys

The first early week bet that I have already placed is in Chiefs-Cowboys. Kansas City’s games often feature a lack of explosive plays. The Chiefs rank outside the top 10 in explosive plays generated, and are seventh best on the defensive side of the ball limiting explosive plays. Look no further than last week when Patrick Mahomes racked up over 300 passing yards in an overtime game that resulted in a final score of 23-20.

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On a small two-game sample size, the Cowboys defense has certainly improved since the trade deadline and their acquisition of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. They have allowed a total of 37 points since acquiring Williams and are fifth-best in total yards allowed in that span. Limiting the Chiefs’ ability to run the ball could put them in frequent second- or third-and-long situations, creating more punts than long sustained drives.

The betting market has already indicated this to be an under spot as well. The opening line was a consensus 52.5, and those have pretty much all been taken out to the point where 52 and 51.5s are emerging. Both 52 and 51 are considered key numbers when betting high NFL totals because of the common score outcomes that land on these numbers. Securing the 52 as a push number and the 51 as a win number will be strong against the closing lines.

Bet: Chiefs-Cowboys under 52

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 44.5)

The Colts have been dominant at home this year, boasting a 6-0 straight-up record and going 4-1-1 ATS; Indy wins by an average of 12.4 points at home. The Colts have lost two of their last three games – to the Chiefs and Steelers – while the Texans have reeled off three straight wins with QB Davis Mills starting for the injured C.J. Stroud. Stroud is expected to return for this game from his concussion, and this provides the perfect opportunity to buy low on the Colts and sell high on Houston.

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The Texans are incredibly dominant defensively, mainly in the pass rush with plenty of sacks and interceptions forced. However, the Colts offense is predicted to establish a strong rush attack with likely Offensive Player of the Year Jonathan Taylor. I think the Colts will be able to put up more than 20 points – as they have in every game this season – and likely outpace the muddy offense that is the Texans.

The betting market has already seen this move from a -3.5/-4 on the Colts at the open to a -4.5 consensus line now, and the -185’s on the Indianapolis money line have been bet out to a -220. I am still comfortable laying the points, as the spread has not moved through any key numbers. Understanding market direction and increasing certainty with the sharp side can be an information gain in exchange for losing some value on the number. That is a trade-off I am often willing to take when games are not moving through key numbers.

Bet: Colts -4.5 (-110)